Open 785: Secrets of the Anuket Topaz [Game over!]

[Titus]

Yeah, I saw that titus and I’m assuming eevee did too, I was looking for you to go into more depth on it

Also about why you switched from A50 to ydrasse?

But I'm Drunk!Titus who thinks it's perfectly clear and I wanna work on designing a shiny new large theme for people to play. Overexplaining isn't good when drunk.

[Almost50]

Inb4 someone asks "why sheep Titus?".. it's because (a) My D1 read on Snow was obviously bad I don't have enough confidence in my reads in this game, and (b) I did ignore Titus' VCA in the last game (which ended like a week ago) and it resulted in a loss.

But -unlike that game- we do have enough room to be wrong and still win here. In that game I replaced in, power-lynched a TOWN slot, then got the SK the next day and was in a 3-players Elo already with another Townie and the last Mafioso. I should've listened to Titus because it was her game (she was a player from the start) and I even said so in-game, but still ended up using my own reads empowered by the boost I got from eliminating the SK in a 3-1-1 situation. (Kevin Spacey said he will never let me play Black Jack on his team)

Spoiler:

[Titus]

The swap thing is silly. All doors have equal probability once one of the doors is shown to have a goat. All the problem shows is if the thinker has rigid thinking or if they are open to changing their mind. Arguably it doesn't show that if you truly understand basic probability. I detest that problem because people think they are smarter than they are if they agree with the leading question the asker wants.

[Fredrick A Campbell]

I actually agree with Almost50's assessment that RCEnigma is town. Maybe not for the same reasons, because I reached that conclusion independent of Almost50's assessment.

VOTE: Ydrasse

[Something_Smart]

The swap thing is silly. All doors have equal probability once one of the doors is shown to have a goat. All the problem shows is if the thinker has rigid thinking or if they are open to changing their mind. Arguably it doesn't show that if you truly understand basic probability. I detest that problem because people think they are smarter than they are if they agree with the leading question the asker wants.

Please tell me I'm grossly misinterpreting this post

[Eevee]

Okay, so basically, I think my general working theory on dumbtells (more likely to be from town than scum) is correct. Especially people who are just oblivious about the setup are likely to be town, especially in complicated games. Yes, scum sometimes fake this, and I’ve been known to like a dumbtell when I’m scum too tbh, but mostly it is town indicative

So I think what happened here was that I got it into my head that the dumbtell was more town!indicative than I should have given how egregious it was. Which meant that I read the following (the opposition to the wagon I wanted) as indicative that I was right that mohab was town and that she was being counterwagoned against the scum I was pushing. And like as it proceeded, it was sort of like a vicious circle. So the slots pushing for mohab were scummy because they were pushing away from snow to try and get her. And why was snow scum? Because I was town and I was pushing her, and because scum were ocunterwagoning on mohab. Why were the scum counterwagoning mohab — to save snow!scum ofc!

Yes, I’m aware that it’s bad logic of a circular variety but that’s why I think I got so locked in. The more resistance I got to what I was pursuing, the more I thought I was right to pursue it, even despite not townreading mohab

Does that make sense? I feel like it’s not the best explained thing but idk if I can be bothered to edit for clarity rn, I might tomorrow if it is really confusing

Spoiler:

Understood. The second paragraph I related to a lot as well because that was more or less the situation I was in, but the other way around.

~Eva

[Titus]

The swap thing is silly. All doors have equal probability once one of the doors is shown to have a goat. All the problem shows is if the thinker has rigid thinking or if they are open to changing their mind. Arguably it doesn't show that if you truly understand basic probability. I detest that problem because people think they are smarter than they are if they agree with the leading question the asker wants.

Please tell me I'm grossly misinterpreting this post

It's replying to A50s Monty Hall problrm video.

[Eevee]

I am weirdly scumreading Ydrasse, but I don't want to be distracted if it is just A50. May have to reread A50's ISO or something.

@Fredrick, why do you think it's Ydrasse? Titus' VCA?

~Eva

[Fredrick A Campbell]

The swap thing is silly. All doors have equal probability once one of the doors is shown to have a goat. All the problem shows is if the thinker has rigid thinking or if they are open to changing their mind. Arguably it doesn't show that if you truly understand basic probability. I detest that problem because people think they are smarter than they are if they agree with the leading question the asker wants.

Probability of choosing door with goat behind: 2/3
Probability of choosing door with new car behind: 1/3

Game show host opens a door with a goat behind, leaving two doors, one with a goat behind it and another with a new car behind it. You would still have chosen the door with a goat behind it 2/3 of the time and the door with the new car behind it 1/3 of the time, assuming that you are equally likely to choose any one of the doors. Therefore, if you decide to switch your options, you would get a car 2/3 of the time and a goat 1/3 of the time.

[Fredrick A Campbell]

I am weirdly scumreading Ydrasse, but I don't want to be distracted if it is just A50. May have to reread A50's ISO or something.

@Fredrick, why do you think it's Ydrasse? Titus' VCA?

~Eva

Yeah.

[northsidegal]

Votecount 2.5

Almost50

............

(3):

Ydrasse (953), Umlaut (1080), Raya36 (1081)

Ydrasse

.............

(3):

Almost50 (1156), Titus (1161), Fredrick A Campbell (1203)

Menalque

............

(2):

Montosh (1036), RCEnigma (1102)

Something_Smart

.....

(1):

Menalque (1114)

Not Voting

..........

(3):

Something_Smart, Eevee, Snowblaze

With 12 alive, it’s 7 to lynch. The Day 2 deadline is in (expired on 2020-07-30 18:57:59).

[Snowblaze]

If Ydrasse is scum she’s had me pocketed for days, so I may not be the best person to try and read her, but I can’t get past the fact that scum!Ydrasse is committing to a suboptimal strategy (bussing) in a setup where the towncred she gains doesn’t even matter that much. The only way I can see scum!Ydrasse is if her partner is Raya, and that’s improbable at best.

[RCEnigma]

I'm learning how goats, cars, and doors work all in the same day!

[Raya36]

RCE(maybe Montosh but prob not)/A50 team?

[Fredrick A Campbell]

VOTE: Almost50

L-2

Other than Almost50, I have reason to townread all on the Snowblaze wagon.

[Something_Smart]

Frederick continuing his legacy of terrible takes.

[Menalque]

Frederick continuing his legacy of terrible takes.

?

[Fredrick A Campbell]

Frederick continuing his legacy of terrible takes.

I'm townreading Menalque for his attempt to point out the flaws in my logic instead of weaponising it in post 434. I see post 435 as it seems like a well thought out attempt to figure out my alignment.

I'm townreading RCEnigma for attempting to figure out my alignment in post 327 and suggesting that Menalque could have voted Mohab500 in post 418.

I'm townreading Montosh for his former version's suggestion to intentionally execute townies to win the game in post 14

Alright, if this is a bad take, I would like to know why so I can see the error in my ways.

[Something_Smart]

Scum Menalque is most certainly capable of making those posts. Holden very likely had that idea before he got his role PM. As for RCE, well I think those specific reasons are pretty bad, but I do think he's town for other reasons.

I should also think that scum-A50 would know that his whole "woe is me" shtick is going to make people like him even less.

[Eevee]

Spoiler:

Maybe is IS Menalque...!?

Or maybe we shouldn’t try to big brain it and go A50 > Menalque and do a big re-evaluation if they’re both wrong.

~Eva

[Eevee]

VOTE: Menalque

he just has far too much scum equity for hard pushing snow and even trying a titus counterwagon - we can't really afford to leave him onboard

~Eve

[Menalque]

*sigh*

[Menalque]

S_S individual top pick for scum

RCE feels super scummy

Montosh is just ???

Raya prob town

Ydrasse I feel is town but I guess it depends how much weight you put in titus’ VCA

A50 I have no idea on whatsoever

[Menalque]

we can't really afford to leave him onboard

Incidentally, I do think this is generally a dumb reason for flipping someone. Like, flipping them because you think you need to flip them. I don’t horrendously oppose the idea of doing me because of how awful I look for hardpushing snow, but it’s disappointing that you actually did get to a correct TR on me and then wifom’d yourself out of it/felt like you needed to lynch me despite TRing me bc “what if”

[Menalque]

Can we just pick either way, I’m getting bored