In post 1385, Montosh wrote:In regards to A50, mostly POE yeah but I mean I wasn't too big of a fan during my ISO of them, and then he sorta dropped off the face of the Earth which I don't really like.
Menalque I never felt the need to because I already scumread them.
I do the big ISO/progression thing to help sort through slots I'm not sure about. There was a wagon on A50 at the time and I wasn't sure how I felt about it.
So take this. Montosh has done a big read through for A50 and a smaller one for ydrasse (or like started on the ydrasse one). But he says he’s never done one on me because he’s really confident I’m scum.
That raises the question: what is his progression on me?
On D1 this is where he’s at:
In post 782, Montosh wrote:629 That Mohab ISO that eevee posted doesn't look great for Mohab. There seems to be relatively confident analysis of the mechanics there.
640 This is pretty silly from Menalque. People can make up their own minds about who they think is vulnerable.
665 Good post, good case on snow. I initially liked 415 because I liked her going through the logic. I do think that, on reflection, there's less there than I initially thought, though I still kind of like the post. The hedging and lack of scumreads still worries me though.
He’s not keen on mohab or on snow, but he ultimately chooses to vote snow. He’s voiced at this point a dislike of my early play (“could be a scum play”) but I think his calling my case good here implies that he thinks I’m towny at this point. Because he chooses to vote in the same place, and supposedly my reasons are understandable.
Shift to D2:
Spoiler:
In post 1015, Montosh wrote:I feel like if this slot turns out to be town, then it's going to be a huge lynchbait target come lylo (if we get there). Given all the interactions around them if may be helpful to resolve that slot sooner rather than later.
In post 1036, Montosh wrote:And I just feel like there was enough resistance to the Mohab/Mae wagon to think that scum was at least partially involved in the snow/Titus counterwagons. This is especially notable given how many people scum-read that slow from basically RVS.
I'm not convinced both scum weren't bussing but I think it's not as likely as the alternative.
VOTE: Menalque
On the snow wagon, hopped on the Titus wagon at one point. Consistently defended mohab and started out intentionally playing so scummy that I could see it being a play.
I see little benefit to leaving this slot alive. If they're town, then it's going to be a huge lynchbait target for the scum so they can escape. If they are scum, then they're going to get out of here and escape at the first opportunity. Resolving this slot now rather than later seems like a good idea to me.
In post 1085, Montosh wrote:No idea, hence why I think it's a point against your wagon. But there's too much WIFOM there for me to necessarily go based off that entirely.
In post 1272, Montosh wrote:I think it's best to flip the scummiest slot today, which is still Menalque imo. This makes sense from my perspective, but from your perspective you don't want to be eliminated either way. It's an anti-town attitude.
In post 1363, Montosh wrote:Ewww. This vote the and the whole stream of posts following is so bad. Why are we not lynching here? Menalque says well hey yes sure I am probably the slot that needs to be evaluated today so definitely vote me. And guess what, people move off that wagon because "scum would never do that".
But scum will do it if they think it makes them look townie enough to give them a chance to escape. They remove some pressure and then stop self-voting.
Not to mention that self-votes are +scum like always.
In post 1535, Montosh wrote:I'm not seeing any reason not to lynch Menalque here. Yes maybe both scum bussed. It's not impossible. But I still think there are two other very likely scenarios, where it's 1v1 or both scum on snow. And I think in either of those, Menalque is an extremely good candidate for scum.
His primary reasons for scumreading me to today... don’t actually seem to be for scumreading me? The main focus of his push is “we should resolve mena today” because “if he’s town he’ll be guillobait later on”. Aside from that, he gives the reason, in 1036 there, that my defending mohab is scummy. Only
that’s not what I did from his point of view.
I didn’t defend mae, I pushed snow. Indirectly, it worked to defend mae, yes. But he agreed with the push! He also thought snow was scummier on balance on D1 and that’s why he voted there — I don’t think it makes sense that this is an important part of the few reasons he gives for actually scumreading me when he believed my case was good on D1.
Then on top of that the only other real reasons are “I could see it being a play” re: my entrance, that I hopped onto titus, and that I self voted briefly. But I’m not persuaded that any of these suggest he should have the level of confidence in me that he doesn’t feel the need to bother doing an ISO read through on me to try and sort me because they’re so compelling to not matter in face of the WIFOM of my slot — which, again, is the main thing he’s been using to try to get me guillotined, *not* my push on snow or my self vote or the other reasons he’s meant to be SRing me for.
***
There’s also one other thing that really bothers me and makes me feel like his reads are not real.
In regards to A50, mostly POE yeah but I mean I wasn't too big of a fan during my ISO of them,
and then he sorta dropped off the face of the Earth which I don't really like.
Menalque I never felt the need to because I already scumread them. I do the big ISO/progression thing to help sort through slots I'm not sure about.
Two key points. (1) he read A50 and thinks A50 looks bad from the read through he did. (2) he only does the ISO on people he’s not sure about and therefore he didn’t do one on me because he’s that confident I’m scum.
In post 1272, Montosh wrote: 1039 Hey A50, I have responded, albeit late. This feels like a lot of worrying about how your motivations are perceived, which is something scum are inclined to do. Also the frustration presented here feels a little bit AtE so I'm definitely not a fan of this post.
[snip]
1152 Like you say, I think it's best to flip the scummiest slot today, which is still Menalque imo.
This makes sense from my perspective, but from your perspective you don't want to be eliminated either way. It's an anti-town attitude.
In post 1271, Montosh wrote:794 More hedging on the snow vs Mohab vs Titus now vote question. Would seem +scum to me in general. Meta-wise I don't recall A50 ever acting like this but I admit it has been a while.
So, not a fan of A50 really. He’s at the bottom of montosh’s readslist alongside me after the ISOing, despite there being a few things in there that montosh gives him towncred for. What I find most odd about this, is his take on A50 given the following remark:
165 & 167 Homura pushes the idea that Craig/Menalque's joke scumclaim is somewhat AI despite the riskiness of bussing. Doesn't feel like two scum distancing. As of now wouldn't put Menalque and A50 on the same team.
He says he doesn’t think that A50 and I are likely to be on the same team. He never retracts this thought or revisits it. He doesn’t have the thought later “oh, maybe they could be because X” nor does he double down on it as “yeah, I’m still really sure mena and A50 can’t be partnered because Y”.
This seems very strange to me in light of the fact that he (1) puts us both next to each other in the bottom of his readslist, when I think it would make sense to say “one of (mena/A50)“ there. But also (2) if he’s convinced I’m scum and thinks we’re unlikely to be scum together, how does this post
In post 1385, Montosh wrote:In regards to A50, mostly POE yeah but I mean I wasn't too big of a fan during my ISO of them, and then he sorta dropped off the face of the Earth which I don't really like. Menalque I never felt the need to because I already scumread them. I do the big ISO/progression thing to help sort through slots I'm not sure about. There was a wagon on A50 at the time and I wasn't sure how I felt about it.
Make sense from town!montosh? If he thinks A50 is reasonably likely as scum and he thinks that we’re unlikely to be scum together, he should be ISOing me (which would also fit with what I think is a lot of very weak reasoning for his scumread and justifications based on “it would be wifom to leave mena alive”). If he really is sold that I’m scum strongly, shouldn’t he be bumping A50 up in his reads/giving him the benefit of the doubt, given his previous expression of belief that we’re not aligned with one another?
This feels to me a *lot* like keeping his options open for either of us tomorrow as a push.
***
Okay, that’s it. We don’t have ages until deadline, and I do understand it if no-one wants to do another CFD but I think this is quite a compelling case for montosh!scum. I’ll be around-ish today to talk to people about it.
In post 1621, RCEnigma wrote:It hadn't, so it wouldn't be to deflect from Mohab it would be to deflect from holden(Montosh) I think the pairing I said that makes sense was Montosh + ydrasse but TBH ydrasse and Montosh mutually townreading each other makes reading back.
The chain of events from ydrasse' vote on Raya going forward are:
-Ydrasse disapproves of both leading wagons (mine & Holden's) and light defends holden
- Montosh comes to a general town!ydrasse conclusion in initial catch up
-engages briefly with ydrasse like they were a townread
-ydrasse reciprocates D2
-Montosh avoids ydrasse wagon D2 in favor of menalque even when the wagon popularity decreases.
Those all feel pretty natural and ydrasse comes out of it looking townier to me than Montosh but I'd buy both of them as town. Montosh could be scum independent of ydrasse and isoing them both side by side brought up some questions about Montosh's read on SS in the context of how he's engaged with Ydrasse as town but not with SS in any meaningful way but has SS higher in his most recent readslist.
Also forgot to add that this is all in the context of the transition away from my wagon day 1 at it's height with at least 1 confirmed scum already on board.
Frederick I'm directing this mostly at you but I guess it's to everyone. The optimal play for scum is to elim town day 1 agreed? Fmpov my wagon is on town and spearheaded by two now confirmed townies with conf scum trailing. If Holden is scum and being counterwagoned what is the risk/reward for joining Mohab on my wagon that town is already pushing for?
A50 was the only person to advocate for me at the time. I'm finding it hard to believe scum!A50 would derail a town on town wagon without another avenue to push at the time. I don't think town!A50 is an impenetrable roadblock for scum at that point either.
Yes, the optimal play for scum is to eliminate scum day 1. However, I think that whatever is optimal is not necessarily what was done.
Busy for the next 2 days (religious feast, and I won't be home).
Quick notes:
- I do have a good scum game. What was good about my play in this game though? (@Titus)
- What NK? We haven't even had one in this game yet. (@Umlaut)
- Doesn't WKing come from Scum by necessity? (@Evee)
VOTE: Montosh
Just to try and survive myself. I have the privilege of knowing I'm town, so I am against my own lynch, but I have no power to change other people's minds.
Anyways I've made my case against Menalque. Won't have time to go over much else before deadline cause I'm working, so I'll let the conf do their thing and decide. Hopefully I'm still alive by the end of it.
"Villains who twirl their moustaches are easy to spot. Those who clothe themselves in good deeds are well camouflaged." Captain Jean-Luc Picard
I just might move my vote but I'm going to take a quick look at the current VC first.
“There are two kinds of people in this world: those who say, ‘There are two kinds of people in this world: those who say there are two kinds of people in this world,
“There are two kinds of people in this world: those who say, ‘There are two kinds of people in this world: those who say there are two kinds of people in this world,
I like both these wagons, and frankly I am more interested RCE's and S_S' votes than I am in my own, so I'm going to just let this ride until deadline. Montosh has seniority right now since the wagons were 5-4 as of Snowblaze's vote.
“There are two kinds of people in this world: those who say, ‘There are two kinds of people in this world: those who say there are two kinds of people in this world,
I guess I'm gonna have to read Menalque's case but I have a very complicated relationship with wallpost cases and by complicated I mean I hate them.
It's always the same. When you fire that first shot, no matter how right you feel, you have no idea who's going to die. You don't know whose children are going to scream and burn. How many hearts will be broken. How many lives shattered. How much blood will spill, until everybody does what they're always going to have to do from the very beginning... SIT DOWN AND TALK!
Some of his thoughts are in line with mine too that if we were going for a level zero solve, we should just go A50>Menalque and worry about if and when that goes wrong.
I would prefer A50 if we must, although I still think Ydrasse is a good choice. I could also be swayed to go Menalque - I know a lot of you will disagree because I agree his D2 is very good, but he is also competent!scum and it doesn't erase his D1 actions.
A50>Menalque>Ydrasse for level 1 solve, maybe? Thinking about this game too much was a very bad idea.
In post 1639, Ydrasse wrote:i townread montosh but after that case i don’t think i’d be heartbroken if he were eliminated. i’ll keep my vote on a50 for now but i’ll be around.
mostly pointing out the reasons why montosh would want to eliminate mena + the emphasis on a50/mena’s positioning wrt each other on montosh’s reads list.
also ngl as scum i did the same sort of iso thing in an effort to seem busy while avoiding certain people/not finishing everyone.
i’d be lying though if i didn’t admit that this coming so close to eod doesn’t make me paranoid that it’s actually mena/a50 together and that’s why my votes still on a50.
