Open 785: Secrets of the Anuket Topaz [Game over!]

[Menalque]

For instance, what do you mean about “claiming scum him would just push the unconfirmed on that wagon then pushing the unconfirmed on that wagon to an elim”? How is this scum!indicative for me fypov?

(1) Because things like this are narrative pushing. Like that specifically was you saying you wouldn't do xyz as town but would as scum, pushed something else and circled back to that thing scum!you would have done.

(2) The bad faith bit is inaccurate as well, I thought you were townish day 1 and votes on your preferred wagon with the caveat that Mohab!Scum likely points to you as scum.

She flipped scum. So even before mohabs flip there was content to pin you as partners and she flipped scum.

(3) I'm not overthinking this

.

(4) Day 2 I'm not super interested in screaming at the confirmed that they're wrong,

they can do their own thing since the game is ultimately in their hands not in the unconfirmeds. Which, fine, but frustrating.

(1) I don’t really see how this is narrative pushing but I’m open to it being that we have a different conception of what that means? I think you just end up in a world where anyone offering an explanation for their actions is “narrative pushing” and I don’t see how offering an explanation for your actions is inherently scummy or towny. I mean, yes, I’m arguing that this doesn’t make sense for me to do as scum because it leaves me in what I think is an objectively more difficult situation as scum? But I also more don’t understand what it is that you’re arguing I actually said/did, and I’d like you to explain that

(2) I kind of... don’t see that in your ISO? One of your opening posts is like an ambiguous thing on how MT repping in defaults my slot to scum and I admit to only having skimmed you now but I don’t think you particularly commit on my alignment other than “probably not partners with ydrasse or snow” and “could be partners with fredrick”. Could you point me to where you did this — like where you said you thought I was townish or behaved in such a way to express this + the bit where you said mohab!scum likely points to me!scum?

(3) like, I’m not asking you to overthink, I’m asking you, if you’re town, to have a meaningful engagement with me instead of writing me off as scum? Because I think you’re quite likely to be scum but I could be wrong and if I am I think my best chance of figuring that out is through talking to you about why you think what you think but that requires a two way street

(4) I don’t think anyone is asking you to, and I don’t think I did that either. I think you can still disagree with the conftown and push your own takes though. I feel like you were much more passive D2 compared to today. Do you think that’s a fair take? Why was that?

[Menalque]

You keep mentioning this doublebuss theory but still pushed on the snow wagon. So idk why you have been bringing it up.

Err, yeah, because I thought/think (honestly I’m not sure anymore, it seemed sound at the time though) that doublebussing is more likely than no bussing. But probably the most likely is one bussing and one not. And given that and that I was pushing what I still think was a p good case, I think it makes total sense that I pushed on the snow wagon, and I don’t think that’s in contradiction with the fact that I think that both (1) the most likely is that scum were 1 on 1 off and (2) if both scum did the same wagon it’s more likely they bussed than that both tried to save

[Fredrick A Campbell]

You keep mentioning this doublebuss theory but still pushed on the snow wagon. So idk why you have been bringing it up.

Err, yeah, because I thought/think (honestly I’m not sure anymore, it seemed sound at the time though) that doublebussing is more likely than no bussing. But probably the most likely is one bussing and one not. And given that and that I was pushing what I still think was a p good case, I think it makes total sense that I pushed on the snow wagon, and I don’t think that’s in contradiction with the fact that I think that both (1) the most likely is that scum were 1 on 1 off and (2) if both scum did the same wagon it’s more likely they bussed than that both tried to save

I think because of varying playstyles, they are all equally probable.

[Raya36]

The wagon wasn't really in that bad of a position until close to deadline anyway

Umlaut’s vote for A50, the second on the wagon. occurred at 3:46 am, GMT + 1 on the 30th of July (using my own time zone to avoid getting confused by conversions). It was followed by Fredrick’s at 3:52 am and Eevee’s at 4:32 am.

Menalque posted at 4.40 am, not exactly trying to halt the wagon in its tracks. He voted for A50 at 5:09 am.

His Montosh case was made at 1:51 pm on the same day.

Day two ended at 2:32 am on the 31st, a little while before deadline.

It’s not

impossible

, but imo it’s highly unlikely.

I guess I'm probably just wrong then. It does seem pretty unlikely.

[Raya36]

I've basically decided that S_S is town now. I've been going back and forth on him in my head lately but I think I like him as town

[Menalque]

Idk fredrick, I kind of think the confirm pattern points to 1 on 1 off too, which is something I didn’t think about that much earlier

But if you’re both off, I think there’s a good case to say you just confirm literally the entirety of the mae wagon and force hunting within snow to be harder

Also I think you’d still end up having to do 1 person unconfirmed on mae who would be a paranoia fountain if chosen correctly for gylo

Whereas if double bussing I think the amount of leeway in having 3 unconfirmed is cutting it maybe a little too fine? I’m not sure, I think this is probably the situation where if it did happen could lead to the greatest variety of patterns

But like from a mechanical point of view, I think 1 on 1 off is best — if you figure people will incline towards going on the snow wagon you have a 25% chance of losing by EV followed by a 33% chance but then you can escape and your partner has a 33% EV

Whereas if you’re both off then under the actual confirmations you have a 66% chance of autoloss that goes down to 50% after one escape

If both in you have a 50% chance of autkisss that likely stays there. Vs if you confirmed no-one a 33% chance that stays at 33%

[Menalque]

I've basically decided that S_S is town now. I've been going back and forth on him in my head lately but I think I like him as town

Why?

[Almost50]

I've basically decided that S_S is town now. I've been going back and forth on him in my head lately but I think I like him as town

Why?

Given that I a, voting him over both Menalque & Ydrasse I'd like to know why too.

[Something_Smart]

Oh yeah that's right I should actually read A50's wall

[Something_Smart]

I am assuming AT LEAST one scum bus'd and one didn't.

Why are you assuming this?

[Snowblaze]

Snow, why is it not ydrasse? Or why is it more important to you to do S_S today?

I’m basically just trying as many different wagons as I can until I get around to actually going back through ISOs to form reads. I have no particular objection to a Ydrasse wagon other than how terrible I’ll feel if she flips town.

(And yes, I will go through ISOs today. I promise.)

[Eevee]

Eve and I have talked about it, and we think it's best to go Menalque today. He's done a lot of pro-scum things that the most likely explanation is he's just scum. It feels wrong to take a leap of faith over the most likely option, and if that costs us the game, then at least we have less to regret. Also, we already used our free leap-of-faith card.

Not talking about the Montosh lynch though; I don't think that was on him because conftown chose to switch, although I found Montosh one of the more townie unconfirms and I don't know if town!Menalque doesn't see that. *shrug*

Am gonna go through Menalque's ISO in a bit and see if there's anything worth pointing out.

Sorry </3 VOTE: Menalque

~Eva

[Eevee]

But before that! I still think Mohab's readlist is telling...

What is going on with this game full of replace outs...

Quick reads:

HoldenGolden - I like the flow of this guy's posts if that makes sense? also get the impression scum wouldn't really do flavour like this as to not attract attention (esp. with that point raya mentioned about scum getting lynched having heavy stakes), so I think this slot is town.

Since this is a hot topic, Craig is null, waiting for the our replacement dude to hit us up with some of posts.

Eevee - Don't like their reads or style atm, thoughts do seem a bit genuine though so not sure what to think here. I guess I've seen this more from town rather than scum, so a slight town-lean here.

Umlaut - Doesn't have a lot of posts but I think I can see some solving and content coming out from them even in so little posts. Probably still needs more posting so so far I'd just say I am leaning town on this one (again).

RCEnigma - Seem to be focused on the game mechanics (which I am actually still somewhat confused about?) but yeah they don't have much else to say regarding anything else. This is more of a gut feeling but I am not a fan of this obsession with the mechanics, feel a little like they side-step reading or other discussions in favour of the mechanics stuff. Wouldn't be surprised if this flipped scum.

everyone else is probably null here, so far.

I'm thinking it's a pretty standard scum readlist, so the top townread is town, and so is the top scumlean. The townleans are confirmed town, so the only possible scum is Craig on this list, or they are not on this list at all. This also points to not RCE, probably (RCE was leading wagon at the time):

I would give a speech about not rushing but since we only have three days, I need you guys to speak up. For me, the RCE wagon still seems OK to me. This is fairly hypocritical of me but the low presence or inactive players as well as the replace-outs probably have the bulk of scum in them. I'll evaluate later in more detail and give more precise reads. VOTE: RCEngima for now.

~Eva

[Almost50]

I am assuming AT LEAST one scum bus'd and one didn't.

Why are you assuming this?

Cuz if not then the team is

exactly

Menalque & RCE, and I am hard TRing RCE.

[Eevee]

One thing I didn't like aside from the Snow pushing was Menalque townlocks Chemist early on:

In the meantime, how about a vote for Holden?

How about a vote for Chemist1422?

No. Chemist is literally the laziest vote you could be making in this playlist and trying to read him off activity tells is shit and never works. Also chemist has lowkey towntold this game

I literally, *literally* cannot think of a worse place for a vote than chemist right now and if you don’t get off him and move your vote somewhere more useful I will come for you

But then decides Chemist-slot is scum when that becomes a flashlynch option. He wasn't willing to change to Mohab, since he was set on Snow, but why change to Titus?

Actually I’m pretty okay with this

VOTE: titus

Titus might be scum

~Eva

[Snowblaze]

But then there’s also the question of “what scum motivation does Menalque have to switch away from the counterwagon to his partner”. Realistically I don’t think there was any chance a Titus elimination would have gone through day one, and... *checks wagon distribution at time of Titus wagon* Mohab was one vote ahead of me at that point, so...

[Snowblaze]

Forcing myself to go through ISOs despite my lack of motivation. Not wallposting though, I’ll just give a simple reads list.

- I’m just going to call Menalque town and be done with it and laugh at myself post-game if I’m wrong.
- I have no clue how to read A50.
- I think there’s precisely one scum in Raya/RCE
- not getting anything from S_S’s ISO on first skim-through
- Ydrasse could be scum but I really don’t want to miseliminate her

VOTE: Raya36 - I think I want to start here.
- progression from townreading Menalque to scumreading him doesn’t add up
- I feel like she was using my argument early day two about whether scum were bussing as “look, conftown said this, it must be right”
- I vaguely remember a few posts that felt like she was shading people and trying to prevent them being townread (can’t be bothered to go through in detail right now.)
- a few people have voiced suspicion but a wagon hasn’t actually got going, so I’m using my “start a wagon and see what happens” strategy.

[Eevee]

AAA if there's one person I'm never going, it's Raya. Snowblaze, I recommend you do a meta read of Raya. I can provide examples tomorrow, or Eve can (I know she feels strongly about this too). From what I know, Raya is firmly in her town-meta.

~Eva

[Eevee]

Snowblaze, we must work as a team! We are here for you!

Why do you think it's not Menalque? Please sell me this!

~Eva

[Menalque]

But then decides Chemist-slot is scum when that becomes a flashlynch option. He wasn't willing to change to Mohab, since he was set on Snow, but why change to Titus?

If i may:

Because I didn’t have chemist townlocked, I said I thought he’d lowkey town told. As in, I thought he was more towards town than scum but it wasn’t that strong. I voted titus because I did think it was hugely contradictory and avoidant for her to vote whoever she did at the time given her stated reads

[Menalque]

I'm thinking it's a pretty standard scum readlist, so the top townread is town, and so is the top scumlean. The townleans are confirmed town, so the only possible scum is Craig on this list, or they are not on this list at all. This also points to not RCE, probably (RCE was leading wagon at the time):

Why are you assuming it’s a standard scum readslist? Especially when if I were partnered the last place I would have told a partner to put me is in null

[Menalque]

I've basically decided that S_S is town now. I've been going back and forth on him in my head lately but I think I like him as town

Why?

Given that I a, voting him over both Menalque & Ydrasse I'd like to know why too.

Yeah, why is that actually?

[Menalque]

Titus, what does your VCA say on raya again?

[Eevee]

Oh yeah, I'd also like to hear more from/about S_S for reasons.

I'm going to sleep now, will hopefully engage tomorrow. Good night all!

~Eva

[Menalque]

Eve and I have talked about it, and we think it's best to go Menalque today.

(1) He's done a lot of pro-scum things that the most likely explanation is he's just scum. (2) It feels wrong to take a leap of faith over the most likely option, and if that costs us the game, then at least we have less to regret.

Also, we already used our free leap-of-faith card.

Not talking about the Montosh lynch though; I don't think that was on him because conftown chose to switch, although I found Montosh one of the more townie unconfirms and

(3) I don't know if town!Menalque doesn't see that

. *shrug*

(4) Am gonna go through Menalque's ISO in a bit and see if there's anything worth pointing out

.

(1) okay, can we talk about this though? Because if you don’t really think montosh!wagon was a pro-scum thing, then I’d like to know what else I’ve done that’s pro-scum besides leading the snow wagon?

(2) because this kinda feels like you’re not actually that convinced that I am scum and you’re voting me more because you’re worried that I might be scum who’s played a blinder of a game and you’re more worried about losing to me here than you are about correctly getting scum today. Which is kind of fair, I’ve had those feelings about people before of “I’m gonna feel so awful about losing to you if you do flip scum in the end” but like, most of the time those people don’t flip scum and you’re just doing it to satisfy your own doubts. And I really don’t think this is the best approach to follow if you want to win (yes, I’m aware how rich this is coming from me, but I’ll say the same thing again in the postgame)

(3) err, why not? My reads are not great as town. Yeah, I normally end up voting scum at some point, but I wouldn’t necessarily say it’s standard for me to have voted scum within the first 2 days especially in a fairly strong PL and one where there’s been no NK

(4) okay, please do this