Open 785: Secrets of the Anuket Topaz [Game over!]

[Menalque]

I don’t have good feelings on any of the remaining slots if I’m honest and I’ll try to explain why so you can look at it tomorrow:

A50 — just hasn’t really played at all. Says that this is because he doesn’t want to effort and then be misguillod anyway, but he hasn’t been at that much risk of that for a while and still has avoided playing. Strong associatives with RCE but unclear if partners taking a big gamble or if one is deliberately muddying the waters for after they escape.

RCE — has felt off all game. Has been pursuing the ‘easiest’ misguillotine in me for the last 2 days. His engagement with me has felt evasive and surface level. Has been trying to suggest that A50 should be cleared if we flip him, but again, possibly trying to just create negative associations there where only 1 is scum.

S_S — A50 is right that he feels similar to in jk9++ and unengaged. Suji doesn’t like scum/doesn’t feel comfortable as scum, especially if there’s no strong presence there to guide him. Could make sense that he didn’t post at all with a scum role PM.

Ydrasse — titus’ VCA says she’s the most likely scum alongside A50. She also may have a tell that I don’t want to out, but if said tell is correct then she’s scum.

Raya — I disagree that she’s playing to her town meta. I read a previous game of hers and had her picked out as town pretty early on and that read never really changed. Here I just don’t get the same sense? Also, would need to read back through, but impression is she lacks conviction. Like her move onto me here after having supposedly been convinced by snow that I don’t make sense as scum with many people

[Menalque]

Frankly I think removing me was a serious misplay given how little sense a lot of things I did made from a scum!pov. Like the logic around me pushing montosh after my double bus theory or my voting titus and leaving my viable counterwagon to a scumbuddy to do so are not wise things for scum!me to do. The reasons I was scumread were just for being wrong, which is dumb.

Now you’re left with a bunch of slots who haven’t been playing the game that much, and the most obvious scum is going to escape.

[Menalque]

I also find it objectionable that I said “if you have major doubts about me that are going to interfere with your ability to sort me accurately, just remove me today” yesterday, and was fully willing to just give my reads and go with that, only to be guillotined today after having, I think, done enough to redeem my slot to those not consumed by paranoia.

[Menalque]

I guess I’m salty because I feel like I did try fucking hard yesterday only for eevee to, i think, not actually engage me on why what I’d done didn’t make sense and to hardpush my misguillo for ?? reasons.

[Menalque]

Eve and I have talked about it, and we think it's best to go Menalque today.

(1) He's done a lot of pro-scum things that the most likely explanation is he's just scum. (2) It feels wrong to take a leap of faith over the most likely option, and if that costs us the game, then at least we have less to regret.

Also, we already used our free leap-of-faith card.

Not talking about the Montosh lynch though; I don't think that was on him because conftown chose to switch, although I found Montosh one of the more townie unconfirms and

(3) I don't know if town!Menalque doesn't see that

. *shrug*

(4) Am gonna go through Menalque's ISO in a bit and see if there's anything worth pointing out

.

(1) okay, can we talk about this though? Because if you don’t really think montosh!wagon was a pro-scum thing, then I’d like to know what else I’ve done that’s pro-scum besides leading the snow wagon?

(2) because this kinda feels like you’re not actually that convinced that I am scum and you’re voting me more because you’re worried that I might be scum who’s played a blinder of a game and you’re more worried about losing to me here than you are about correctly getting scum today. Which is kind of fair, I’ve had those feelings about people before of “I’m gonna feel so awful about losing to you if you do flip scum in the end” but like, most of the time those people don’t flip scum and you’re just doing it to satisfy your own doubts. And I really don’t think this is the best approach to follow if you want to win (yes, I’m aware how rich this is coming from me, but I’ll say the same thing again in the postgame)

(3) err, why not? My reads are not great as town. Yeah, I normally end up voting scum at some point, but I wouldn’t necessarily say it’s standard for me to have voted scum within the first 2 days especially in a fairly strong PL and one where there’s been no NK

(4) okay, please do this

Like unless I’m missing it, I don’t think eevee ever actually even bothered to engage with me on this? Which doesn’t feel like they were bothering to even try and sort me in good faith any more and had decided just to tunnel until I was dead

[Menalque]

Also umlaut I have no idea why you hammered someone who you were correctly townreading while there were still 6 days to turn it around

[Snowblaze]

Great. Time to get even more paranoid.

At least we’ll have a scumflip to analyse for tomorrow. That’s something. I promise not to go into lurk mode again.

[Menalque]

I think you played very well, snow. Sorry about pushing you D1. Your analysis on why I wasn’t scum was really spot on, it’s a shame no-one wanted to listen

[Menalque]

Possible teams with both scum on my day one wagon

RCEnigma/Almost50

Possible Teams with both scum on the Maemuki wagon day one

Something_Smart/Raya36
Ydrasse/Raya36

Possible teams with one scum on each day one wagon

Menalque/Something_Smart
RCEnigma/Something_Smart
RCEnigma/Ydrasse
Almost50/Something_Smart

There doesn’t appear to be any pair of eliminations that gives us an auto-win assuming I haven’t ruled out the actual team. The closest I can get is S_S and RCE, and that still loses to Raya/Ydrasse.

I suggest you try to force the rest of the conftown to engage with you on this once you have a scum confirmed

[Menalque]

To double check you haven’t cleared anyone who shouldn’t be cleared, for instance

[Menalque]

EV is now down to 25% so scum probably win, which I think they deserve

[Menalque]

Oh, I was prodded.

VOTE: Menalque

We're going to do this anyway so let's just get it done.

[Menalque]

Sorry, not feeling up to mafia. I haven't read the last few pages in detail, but I will do that and respond to things better Soon.

Basically, I think Menalque is scum because
- Hard Snow push (this is the most pro-scum thing, as we can all agree)
- Mohab defence (the problem with this is the reasons he townread Mohab for are dodgy. I don't claim to know Menalque *that* well, but from a past town game I remember, he was more cautious/suspecting, and he doesn't exactly give *a lot* of leeway for newer players. This townread was handed out a bit too easy and feels unnatural)
- Trying to flashwagon Titus when from his point of view, Snow should be more scummy. This makes it look like he's willing to go anywhere but Mohab.
- His double-bus theory, but then going for Montosh (if he believed in his theory, he would not have gone this way)
- The Montosh case (the case itself, not the outcome because he's not to blame for that, is pro-scum)

A popular counterargument is "this is why does scum do this?" / "This makes no sense for scum to do because it looks so blatant" but I don't think that's a good reason considering scum don't always do what's optimal. Or they do what's optimal for them, and then try talk their way out of it, which I suspect is a play Menalque would be willing to go for.

Also, I guess you could say this could all be a horrible series of accidents, but the more likely explanation is he's scum. Could I be wrong? Yes. But we should go for the most likely option.

~Eva

[Menalque]

Yeah... I'll move back to Menalque

VOTE: Menalque
That's E-1!

[Menalque]

VOTE: Menalque

[Menalque]

*nodding sagely*

VOTE: menalque

[Menalque]

VOTE: Menalque I'm cool with ending the game.

[Menalque]

Aww, I’m just trollin’ but no-one’s here to see it

I was scum, GG town

[Menalque]

I really should have committed harder on the push to save mohab D1 I think that was the big mistake

[Menalque]

I really thought I’d gotten away with it on D2 as well

[Ydrasse]

this is a lot

[Menalque]

Thanks for modding NSG! I do like the setup it’s just feels so townsided if scum get hit D1

[Snowblaze]

So, going to tell us who your partner was?

[Ydrasse]

[Menalque]

So, going to tell us who your partner was?

You had it right, it was S_S