A warlock, a werewolf, and a vampire... [Game Over]


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Post Post #3475 (ISO) » Thu Aug 06, 2020 6:53 pm

Post by Lady 3 »

In post 3472, Lady 8 wrote:I get the sense from Gent 2's posting recently that he's trying to solve the game-- what I mean about that is, I think it's a mostly foregone conclusion that Gent 2 is flipping soon. I think Gent 2 knows that as well.

Detailing plans for who should and shouldnt be in the endgame, trying to strike a deal with me, stuff like that feels unnecessary if he's just about to flip red. And also could potentially be hurting his partner too giving so much extra info. It's sort of like in a regular game when someone is at L-1 and they're obviously going to die-- scum would probably favour giving up to not expose anything to help us find their partner, town will try to dictate what we should do next

In Gent 7's case it was kind of LAMISTy/WIFOMy to save himself (it was just a 1v1), whereas here I don't get the feeling Gent 2 is trying to save himself by WIFOMing us out. I don't think he can and I dont think he thinks he can either. He'd have to push so many miselims, whereas in Gent 1's case he just had to beat out one person.

I also am pretty much fine with his picks for the endgame, if I assume his pair is T/T.

I don't know if that all makes sense. Lady 4 I also think is town i believe.

I have much less strong feelings on G4/L2. Some things by Gent 4 I vaguely like on occasion but it's not big things. Lady 2 I feel I'm being unfair to, especially now that she's V/LA atm.

But I'm much not enjoying this current gamestate where it kind of feels like we're playing as if we only have one shot, where in reality we can knock out like 90% of the players. I know this is my fault too for not deciding on my favourite flavour of ice cream or whatever, im very sorry for that. It's vanilla tho btw

VOTE: Gent 4 / Lady 2
Well, L7bandana said "I know I'm dead but what really matters is picking a good final T-T pair", and then beeboy pointed out some flaws in his follow through on that. And now currently we have G8 pointing out some flaws in G2's follow through on his deathwilling gameplay and it seem very clear he's willing to sacrifice large amounts of postgame influence for a small amount of survival chance and that does a lot to negate the bonus points for entertaining a paradigm where he's removed from this game.

The baked in assumption you seem to have here is that G2 would see dying during f8 as an equal outcome to dying during f16. I don't think that's a given. I think; when excepting away a special case "obvious day1 scum" which most games don't have and doesn't happen to good players, and I have been this thing eleventeen times, aside from that phenomenon I think delaying scum exiles greatly benefits the scum due to the impact it has on the town dialogue (and that might even be true in the special case of obvscum d1 exiles where the scum votes Sane Cop with D3 IC, I'm just reserving judgment there). So I disagree with that assumption G2's knowledge he's not going to be last pair guarantees he doesn't exhibit this play as scum
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Post Post #3476 (ISO) » Thu Aug 06, 2020 7:24 pm

Post by Gentleman 8 »

In post 3474, Gentleman 5 wrote:
In post 3473, Gentleman 8 wrote:that is why i'm trying to look at each action and think about whether it makes sense, whether it's internally consistent, whether i really believe he thinks the things he thinks, rather than generalise and say "he is doing stuff town would do so he's town"
This also applies to gent 4 right now
ok?

i don't really think what they're doing is quite the same, but i'm not really town reading gentleman 4 (or his partner) and i don't know if i will at any point in this game

so, uh... thanks for the tip, i suppose?
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Post Post #3477 (ISO) » Thu Aug 06, 2020 7:29 pm

Post by Gentleman 5 »

I thought you were arguing for voting out Gent 2 over Gent 4
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Post Post #3478 (ISO) » Thu Aug 06, 2020 7:33 pm

Post by Gentleman 8 »

well i am doing that, yes

i think gentleman 2 is more likely to be scum than gentleman 4 and would prefer flipping that couple first

the main point i was making was really that i don't really see gentleman 2's actions as being inherently town in any way like lady 8 suggests because
a. i don't agree that scum would choose to just lay down and die, and
b. if you think he's town for not laying down and dying, then how do you explain the self-voting shenanigans?
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Post Post #3479 (ISO) » Thu Aug 06, 2020 7:34 pm

Post by Gentleman 5 »

I agree with you with your thinking of Gent 2's actions possibly coming from scum
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Post Post #3480 (ISO) » Thu Aug 06, 2020 7:36 pm

Post by Gentleman 5 »

I just, in addition, have other reasons to suspect gent 4 as well

And I feel he's playing to survive over playing to solve

Does town really pull that "spur of the moment" thing?

I also don't really think he went back to look at what I was doing at all
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Post Post #3481 (ISO) » Thu Aug 06, 2020 7:41 pm

Post by Gentleman 8 »

also i have more issues with things about gentleman 2's play than i do with gentleman 4's play overall i think...

other than the recent stuff, i think the complete lack of progression with regards to reads is really odd if gentleman 2 is town

the most obvious example is his unwavering town read on lady 4, which i _believe_ started because he thought scum had left three townies in the pre-dance. this was obviously false. i see no point in the game where it looked like gentleman 2 went "oh, i guess i was wrong, i need to think about what that means about lady 4" - nope, instead it's complete confidence that she's town. why? they haven't been using their PT, so it can't be private communications, and i do not believe it's based on lady 4's posts, so why was there never even the suspicion that lady 4 chose him over gentleman 7 as an act of bussing? or what is the actual reason he's so very, very confident?

you could arguably say something similar about, for example, gentleman 4's read on his partner, but the key difference is there was never some foundation-shattering event that should have made him question the read like should have been the case with gentleman 2

anyway, i don't really want to go into full-on case mode here, so i'll just leave it at that. either people see it or they don't

i'd prefer flipping gentleman 2 before others (and i think there's a non-zero chance that it actually ends the game, even if i don't have much confidence in that) but i don't really care enough to make a big deal out of it if people disagree
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Post Post #3482 (ISO) » Thu Aug 06, 2020 7:42 pm

Post by Gentleman 5 »

Generally I don't think it's worth arguing between Gent 2 and Gent 4

I just want to put it out there that I do consider Gent 4 suspicious

If you place your vote on Gent 2 I'll follow you, for now I'm voting with Ghosty 8
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Post Post #3483 (ISO) » Thu Aug 06, 2020 7:51 pm

Post by Gentleman 8 »

i think the difference is i'm not anywhere near as convinced one of gentleman 4 and lady 2 is scum, even if i have issues with both

and i think i need to see how gentleman 2 and lady 4 flip before i can really go back and evaluate things at this point

or i need someone to convince me why i'm very, very wrong about the things i'm thinking seem like things that wouldn't come from gentleman 2 if he's town

im kind of skipping a lot of recent information and i want to actually sit down and read some things before i jump off my fence and place a vote on not-me

just finished "working" so guess ill get around to it soon
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Post Post #3484 (ISO) » Thu Aug 06, 2020 7:54 pm

Post by Lady 3 »

In post 3483, Gentleman 8 wrote:i think the difference is i'm not anywhere near as convinced one of gentleman 4 and lady 2 is scum, even if i have issues with both

and i think i need to see how gentleman 2 and lady 4 flip before i can really go back and evaluate things at this point

or i need someone to convince me why i'm very, very wrong about the things i'm thinking seem like things that wouldn't come from gentleman 2 if he's town

im kind of skipping a lot of recent information and i want to actually sit down and read some things before i jump off my fence and place a vote on not-me

just finished "working" so guess ill get around to it soon
.
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Post Post #3485 (ISO) » Thu Aug 06, 2020 7:57 pm

Post by Gentleman 5 »

I encourage people to look at Gent 4's progression of reads regarding me

It feels like he decided he needed to push me and came up with the reasoning after

I don't think you're wrong with things. I'm not brimming with confidence that Gent 2 is scum but he's a pretty solid choice for being scum. I tried explaining to Ghosty 8 that Gent 2's actions can be explained with "wifom, and trying to look like town".
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Post Post #3486 (ISO) » Thu Aug 06, 2020 8:01 pm

Post by Lady 3 »

man
I know "My name is Y and X came at me like a wrecking ball, and since I have Y's role PM i know that's a wrecking ball against town, so compared to rand that says bad things about X" is valid
otoh in a 16p with 2 scum man is it at it's least compelling
y'know?
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Post Post #3487 (ISO) » Thu Aug 06, 2020 8:01 pm

Post by Lady 3 »

*its
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Post Post #3488 (ISO) » Thu Aug 06, 2020 8:10 pm

Post by Gentleman 8 »

sometimes you say things lady 3 and i wish i could read and understand them but i struggle
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Post Post #3489 (ISO) » Thu Aug 06, 2020 8:16 pm

Post by Lady 3 »

im sry g8 i just try my best but im not the greatest i can't even level my starmie past 30 or she'll disobey me it's fucking depressing she's like "shall we show this abra the last Swift novel worth reading " and I'm like "no I kind of need to continue to enslave you in a manner that raises the question of whether animal rights are meaningful, could you please you Rest so I can exert command over your consciousness as your master even though your secondary type advertises how intelligent you are?"


so like
tdlr im not sure i'll always get you wat u need g8

i m a failure
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Post Post #3490 (ISO) » Thu Aug 06, 2020 8:19 pm

Post by Gentleman 8 »

i feel like that one almost made sense to me

im getting there
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Post Post #3491 (ISO) » Thu Aug 06, 2020 8:26 pm

Post by Gentleman 5 »

In post 3486, Lady 3 wrote:man
I know "My name is Y and X came at me like a wrecking ball, and since I have Y's role PM i know that's a wrecking ball against town, so compared to rand that says bad things about X" is valid
otoh in a 16p with 2 scum man is it at it's least compelling
y'know?
No clue what you're saying
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Post Post #3492 (ISO) » Thu Aug 06, 2020 8:30 pm

Post by Gentleman 5 »

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Post Post #3493 (ISO) » Thu Aug 06, 2020 9:03 pm

Post by Gentleman 8 »

well, i think lady 2 is more likely to be town than not

anyone think she's scum? if so, why?
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Post Post #3494 (ISO) » Fri Aug 07, 2020 1:48 am

Post by Gentleman 4 »

In post 3463, Lady 1 wrote:G4's biggest thing is he comes up with reasons live not overtime.

Learn the wolfy difference
I think I would be more careful as a wolf instead of doing stuff like this, just saying. Also, my read on G5 didn’t really come up on the spot I was suspicious of him since maybe two days ago, and I also never really townread L8. It’s unfair to say that it came out of the blue.
To be honest, I’m less confident in scumreading G5 after last night, but I do think I could justify the initial scum read given some time. I don’t really think this would be helpful though because I would then be wanting to look for reasons G5 was scum instead of actually giving him a real evaluation.
I am considering compiling reads, but I really don’t think it matters too much. Also, you want me to leave the dance because you can’t read me? Well that’s sorta dumb, and the only scenario where I ever leave the dance is when/if you guys convince me that Lady 2 is scum.
Bottom line is that I think what I did with G5 was just a bad mafia habit which is getting reads in my head but never really able to justify them(but I do believe in the reads). Like I would say I’m leaning town on G9 right now, but I couldn’t tell you why. The thing is, I don’t really see myself doing such a thing where I put out reads I can’t exactly explain as mafia, but it’s up to you to believe that.
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Post Post #3495 (ISO) » Fri Aug 07, 2020 2:47 am

Post by Gentleman 5 »

In post 3494, Gentleman 4 wrote:To be honest, I’m less confident in scumreading G5 after last night,
Why?
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Post Post #3496 (ISO) » Fri Aug 07, 2020 3:50 am

Post by FakeGod »

VoteCount 1.8


Gentleman 9 - Lady 3 [1] - Lady 4
Gentleman 5 - Lady 8 [1] - Gentleman 2
Gentleman 1 - Lady 7 [0] -
Gentleman 8 - Lady 5 [1] - Gentleman 8
Gentleman 3 - Lady 6 [0] -
Gentleman 6 - Lady 1 [0] -
Gentleman 4 - Lady 2 [4] - Lady 5, Lady 1, Gentleman 5, Lady 8
Gentleman 2 - Lady 4 [6] - Lady 3, Gentleman 6, Gentleman 1, Lady 6, Gentleman 9, Lady 7

Not Voting [3]
- Gentleman 3, Lady 2, Gentleman 4

With 16 alive it takes 9 votes to execute
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Countdown to deadline: (expired on 2020-08-11 14:34:47)
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Post Post #3497 (ISO) » Fri Aug 07, 2020 4:41 am

Post by Lady 7 »

Lady 1, you should join us on G2 and L4. If everyone on G4 and L2 swapped, we'd have a lynch.
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Post Post #3498 (ISO) » Fri Aug 07, 2020 4:55 am

Post by Lady 4 »

G2 and I have started talking in the PT now fyi
In post 3493, Gentleman 8 wrote:well, i think lady 2 is more likely to be town than not

anyone think she's scum? if so, why?
I do
she has been coasting all game (including before her V/LA) and when I confronted her about it she overreacted in a very defensive manner that read like scum
I haven't seen any real scumhunting from her since dance 1 began
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Post Post #3499 (ISO) » Fri Aug 07, 2020 4:57 am

Post by Lady 7 »

Lady 4, your vote is useless where it is at.
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