Open 785: Secrets of the Anuket Topaz [Game over!]

[Eevee]

But cool, I think I'm just going to present my reasons to give Ydrasse time and opportunity to respond like Menalque, in case I'm wrong.

- Daystart reaction: "I really thought the game was over" (performative)
- Easily fakable end of day reaction; the thing here is I think scum are more inclined to *try* and give a reaction to clear themselves.
- S_S seems to like to be honest a lot of the time and kept saying Mena!Town so I think he TMI'd RCE/A50 in a similar way.

Scum Menalque is most certainly capable of making those posts. Holden very likely had that idea before he got his role PM. As for RCE, well I think those specific reasons are pretty bad, but I do think he's town for other reasons.

I should also think that scum-A50 would know that his whole "woe is me" shtick is going to make people like him even less.

My readlist is:
RCE
Menalque
Everyone else

- A50 had a S_S case that looked fairly genuine, and I want to believe that S_S vs Raya was genuine too.
- S_S had this random Ydrasse vote near the end of the day. The reasons have completely evaporated now. (The interaction from that post onwards is slightly dodgy as well)

I'm here.

I still feel like Menalque is probably town and well if he isn't either he flees and we get a shitton of info or he stays and we have another chance to kill him.

VOTE: Ydrasse

- Ydrasse defended S_S.

in what situation does s_s just... not... vote on either of the main wagons. like. i feel like that sort of thing reads townier to me personally bc it sticks out like a sore thumb that one of the unconfirmeds isn't going along with w/e else town is doing?

(i know the same thing could be asked about rce but i've sorted rce into town pretty solidly rn so i'm trying to parse s_s. i guess it could be to avoid scrutiny if one of the wagons went through in the case of maf!s_s which would imply a town!a50 fmpov?)

- Ydrasse's Raya progression.

ftr i don’t think i ever will vote raya at this point

rce either for some good postin

p-edit: eva is just trying to give me the least charitable reason and it HURTS my heart... eva we can get along

p-edit again: i’m shading both of u don’t take it personally

- Ydrasse's A50 push wasn't good. Felt like she was trying to sell us A50 scum (performative).
- A50 push also took up most of the day.
- Titus being killed is +her, if we don't think about WIFOM.
- Titus' VCA.

~Eva

[Eevee]

A double bus is entirely possible if Menalque is town and I'm probably gonna reread his case on it again. If he's town, there was always at least one busser and we really should've gone for that.

Ydrasse/me seems patently crazy.

A bus is possible, but a double bus seems legitimately insane.

I never said it was insane for scum to bus, I said a double bus was insane. Because the instant the redflip hits the game goes completely out of scum's hands and they have no idea if people are going to conclude that bussing was likely. So if you double bus, you're essentially forcing that outcome, and then you have to survive two executions where five conftown players bounce ideas off of each other and you basically don't get to participate.

Normally the primary reason for bussing is to maintain control over the gamestate, but all of scum's control over the gamestate is gone if they lose a member in the first two days. So that leaves the only reason to bus is to look town or not look suspicious, but given that they have to confirm people, they can just confirm almost everyone on the wagon and then the majority of unconfirmed players are ones who didn't vote flipped scum.

Posts like these make me think S_S is trying to keep the lynchpool in the Snow wagon. This would also be +reason to confirm Snow in the first place.

The only thing I have an issue with though is: would it be easier to win by pushing the Snow lynch through>Menalque>person #3? Hmmmm

~Eva

[Ydrasse]

i'll respond either later tonight or tomorrow to everything!

(will it be eight hours? well, find out.)

[Eevee]

But cool, I think I'm just going to present my reasons to give Ydrasse time and opportunity to respond in case, like with Menalque, I'm wrong.

EBWOP

Okay! Looking forward to it!

~Eva

[Raya36]

The A50 and Ydrasse interactions read strongly as TvS in some order to me

[Raya36]

RCEnigma:

-SS has as town early game
-SS agreed that RCE's vote looked bad
-SS agrees that there are bad points on RCE but townreads anyway
-SS has RCE as top townread
-Nothing noteworthy from RCE mentioning SS

Based on that I'd say SS townread RCE too heavily to be partners. Especially since if they were partners I think SS would be the one still in game to hide that association.

Almost50:

-SS lightly defended A50
-Very little noteworthy mention outside of that
-A50 had SS as null
-A50 was pretty adamant about SS being scum. If this was scum theater or distancing I'd expect SS to actually interact a bit? I don't think he did?

I don't see this being super likely based on the last point I made but it could have been A50 doing all the distancing work?

Ydrasse:

-SS says the idea of him and ydrasse together would be crazy
-SS votes Ydrasse
-SS explains to me why I can't continue to clear Ydrasse as scum with my old logic
-SS continued to push Ydrasse but then unvoted when someone pointed out that it contradicts other statements he made
-Ydrasse votes SS early
-Says many times that she wants an SS elimination but has her vote elsewhere
-Starts to townread SS

I can see this being early distancing from both of them. The thing that pings me the most is while both of them were scumreading each other they weren't really responding to each other and interacting. Unless I'm somehow entirely missing that?
Usually when it's TvS or TvT interactions come out of scumreads/cases/votes. So I find it really weird that they were going after each other while never defending themselves to the other?

[Raya36]

So basically as of now I want to eliminate Ydrasse based off of interactions. The other two just don't make sense in my opinion

[Snowblaze]

I think my brain has recovered from Menalque’s trolling. Acknowledging that I’ve seen what’s happened, busy with other games, will be around for some (attempts at) solving later.

[Fredrick A Campbell]

Let me see:

RCEnigma has yet to grace us with his presence.
Ydrasse has not said who she thinks the last mafioso is.
Raya36 thinks the last mafioso is Ydrasse.
Almost50 thinks the last mafioso is Ydrasse.
Umlaut has yet to grace us with his presence.
Eevee has one player whom they think is the mafioso but does not want to influence other players' conclusions on who it is or place the player on guard.
Snowblaze has yet to conclude who it is.
I have one player whom I think the last mafioso is but just like Eevee, I am not going to reveal it yet. I will only reveal it once all the players has an opinion on the matter.

Should I have misunderstood any player's positions in this post, please make a post clarifying your position. I'll be monitoring this thread for responses.

[Fredrick A Campbell]

EBWOP: I will only reveal it once all the players

have

an opinion on the matter.

[Snowblaze]

Spoiler: S_S/Ydrasse, Day One

Spoiler: S_S/A50, Day One

Brief interaction based on Fredrick’s S_S vote, debating whether it should have been counted in the vote count above.

Spoiler: S_S/RCE, Day One

344 - RCE points out that Sujimichi doesn’t appear in Menalque’s list of possible scum.
470 - RCE jokes about S_S being scum
507 - S_S asks Menalque to explain his RCE case
558 - S_S asks why the Porkens replacement is scum-indicative
613, 616, 624 - S_S townreads RCE based on his unvoting me
- S_S and RCE discuss the plurality elimination system

Spoiler: S_S/Raya, Day One

631 and 633 - Brief discussion of my suspicion of RCE, Raya finding it suspicious and S_S defending me.

Yeah. That’s the problem with having a scum slot not posting for half of day one.

Conclusion: based on their interactions on day one, there is no reason S_S can’t be partnered with any of the four. It is

interesting

that he interacts with RCE significantly more than any of the other unconfirmed. This isn’t the important day wrt interactions, though. Day two will be far more revealing when I eventually get around to it.

[Snowblaze]

Spoiler: S_S/Ydrasse, Day Two

1260 and 2146- that team is “patently crazy” and a double bus is “insane” - flipped scum
1270 - Ydrasse’s elimination chain features S_S in third after A50 and Menalque
1413 - Ydrasse votes S_S
1437 - reads list with S_S at null, changed vote because of day one wagon dynamics
1460 - Ydrasse asks S_S for a reads list
1473 - S_S votes Ydrasse when the wagons are Menalque 5/Ydrasse 3
1476 - Ydrasse complains about the above
1530 - Ydrasse would vote S_S over RCE
1536 - S_S as a scumread, but not voting there (self-preservation?)
1554 - S_S asking why Raya townreads Ydrasse

I need to look at the precise circumstances surrounding S_S’s Ydrasse vote, and whether he was painted into townreading Menalque at that point, but I don’t think they’re partners based on this.

[Snowblaze]

Okay, S_S gave a reads list with Menalque as second-top town, but that wasn’t until after the Ydrasse vote. He definitely had the option to vote Menalque instead. So he wasn’t forced into the Ydrasse vote, he chose that option.

That just leaves the question of “was it too risky to distance? How likely was that vote to get Ydrasse killed? When and why and how did he switch?”

(Several questions, I know.)

[Snowblaze]

Vote count as of S_S’s Ydrasse vote in 1473:
Menalque 5: Montosh, RCEnigma, Eevee, Fredrick A Campbell, Ydrasse
Ydrasse 4: Almost50, Titus, Menalque, Something_Smart
Something_Smart 1: Raya36
Montosh 1: Umlaut
Not voting: Snowblaze

Fredrick switches from Menalque to S_S, Eevee unvotes Menalque:
Ydrasse 4: Almost50, Titus, Menalque, Something_Smart
Menalque 3: Montosh, RCEnigma, Ydrasse
Something_Smart 2: Raya36, Fredrick A Campbell
Montosh 1: Umlaut
Not voting: Snowblaze, Eevee

And then S_S switches to Raya.

Eevee votes Ydrasse, Raya unvotes S_S, Umlaut votes Ydrasse:

Ydrasse 5: Almost50, Titus, Menalque, Eevee, Umlaut
Menalque 3: Montosh, RCEnigma, Ydrasse
Something_Smart 1: Fredrick A Campbell
Raya36 1: Something_Smart
Not voting: Snowblaze, Raya36

S_S then doesn’t post until much later in the day, while the Montosh wagon is in progress.

(RIP Titus, she could do this properly instead of me making it up as I go along.)

Not *impossible* but unlikely.

Unlikely isn’t good enough for ElLo, though.

(Does it still count as ElLo with seven town and one scum? I mean, we still lose if we eliminate wrongly, so I’m going to call that a yes.)

[Snowblaze]

This probably isn’t the most productive way to do this.

I’m prepared to say that Almost50 is town, because a) he was voting S_S, a wagon supported by conftown (me) yesterday, and b) I can’t see a world where yesterday’s Menalque wagon was all town.

Anyone have strong objections to that view?

[Raya36]

I think that's a reasonable view snow. Point b especially

[Snowblaze]

Yeah, A50 was the leading wagon for nearly all of early day two and S_S did nothing to stop it. Unless anyone has a very convincing case, I'm okay with calling him town and being done with it.

I need to have a closer look at the S_S wagon day two. Ydrasse and Raya were both voting there at one point iirc.

[Snowblaze]

Day two's S_S wagon never got above two votes, although Ydrasse, Raya, Menalque and Fredrick were all voting there at some point. It was never the largest wagon. I don't think there was ever a point where his partner would have panicked and tried to do something about it.

I've already analysed the day two Ydrasse and A50 wagons. Neither Raya nor RCE were wagoned on day two.

Next step: look through day three Ydrasse/S_S interactions.

[Raya36]

Well I'm going to start us off

VOTE: Ydrasse

Remember not to bring anyone to E-1 which is 4 votes. Scum can quick-elim and win.
3 votes is the max we can have on one player. Treat E-2 as the point to state intent.

[Umlaut]

@mod v/la until Monday

I realize my participation in this game has been atrocious and I really am intending to get back in the saddle before it ends, but this weekend is bad for that

[Umlaut]

I will say it makes a lot of sense that if one scum bused then they both bused so happy to look at the Mohab wagon with a fresh eye.

[RCEnigma]

I will say it makes a lot of sense that if one scum bused then they both bused so happy to look at the Mohab wagon with a fresh eye.

I'd agree it looks a lot more likely. No buss means it's me or A50. A50 doubled down on SS elim yesterday. If it's me there was a ton of unnecessary cross-bussing going on.

My gut says Raya but menalque and Titus were both set on ydrasse.

[RCEnigma]

Keep in mind SS had the opportunity to hammer on snow day 1 and didn't. Not sure how that fit into scum plans.

[Ydrasse]

sorry that i haven't replied yet! have been a bit busy and will tn.

[Snowblaze]

I'm really sorry about this, but unavoidable IRL stuff has come up.

I can't even leave you with a solve: I don't know who the last scum is. I'm reasonably confident it's not A50, but beyond that I don't have a clue. Just look very closely at all three remaining players.

Ydrasse was right: this game has been an emotional rollercoaster. I wish more than anything I could ride it to the end.

Eliminate scum for me, and for Titus and Menalque and Montosh. No pressure, though!

Goodbye, good luck and have fun.