A warlock, a werewolf, and a vampire... [Game Over]

[Gentleman 1]

and i guess uh... im still trying to make sense of his reaction to gentleman 9 talking about the scum PT because while i could see a tone-deaf town player getting worked up about it, that'd usually be followed up with a vote? but it wasnt, so...? did he not actually think he'd found scum?

again at that point I didn't feel like voting because I hadn't formed enough solid opinions to do so imo

[Gentleman 1]

What was the case? You seem to have gotten rid of the pairing with the second highest likelihood of being town.

pardon

[Gentleman 5]

Nobody was able to argue that they had the second highest likelihood of being town while they were still alive.

[Lady 3]

Being the second highest likelihood of being town causes you to post in the game thread on your main account and get force replaced. There are mysterious forces at work

[Gentleman 5]

Hindsight is twenty twenty Lady 6

You replaced in at a point where they already flipped and showed as town

[Lady 6]

What was the case? You seem to have gotten rid of the pairing with the second highest likelihood of being town.

pardon

They were the last pair to form and scum was left out in the cold. This is circumstantial evidence of being town.

Hindsight is twenty twenty Lady 6

You replaced in at a point where they already flipped and showed as town

Sure, but looking at the motivations of the people who pushed the wagon is 100% my best course of action here. If my impression from the mod ISO is hey, that pair is probably town, and then that pair is wagoned first, and they actually were town, I think looking at why they were wagoned in the first place is definitely worth my attention.

[Gentleman 8]

on thinking about it, i would like gentleman 4 to towncase lady 2

also would like to hear what gentleman 9's thoughts on lady 3 are (preferably with a bit of detail why he thinks that

ill be home later to read stuff

[Lady 3]

I interpreted the circumstantial evidence opposite but I am open to the possiblity I am just dumb. Could you explain how the scum getting left out means L4 is town again? The way my mind goes is, scum is left out, maybe the reason why is because there was so much scum density left in the remaining players scum had to be left out.

[Lady 8]

My question for Lady 1

Who is your biggest scumread aside from G4 or L2 and why?

Is this the part you're not understanding? I never said scum have to be in the 2-4 pairs if they all flipped town I would shrug my shoulders and go oh well and look more closely at the remaining pairs because that would be the part where I need to look for the next scum. I really wish you didn't ask this question because I don't want to pull focus away from 2-4 who should still be the lynch today regardless. I even told my partner I was gonna make the scum case next dance

posts like this are ones that reinforce my belief that you're trying to chain town eliminations with the 2-4 pairs

I really don't think it's scummy to just want to remove both 2-4 pairs (at least at the beginning of today). If the consensus was never going to townread them for endgame, there wasn't a whole lot of reason to delay.

I suppose it's easy as scum to just support that and not read into things further, sure. But I can also see taking a lower effort path and just removing the main consensus not townread parties first and foremost

I think the way Lady 6 is trying to go about finding scum via the last wagon is a genuine attempt by her but I am unsure she will find much. Scum probably wouldn't feel more inclined to push the wagon as they would to not push it. Mayyyybe if there's scum in G4/L2 it's telling that we were swerved onto that wagon, but at the same time, I'm liking Gent 4 more and he says Lady 2 is town

Gent 1 Nagito is a tougher read these past couple pages. I think he's attacking Lady 1 for things that are true ("You aren't explaining your read changes", "You're trying to [mis?]elim the 2/4 pairs") but I don't know if she's necessarily scummy over being somewhat anti-town for them. Yes yes im a broken record not finding things scummy I'll go off and sit by myself now

[Lady 3]

i was in the middle of playing a video game and trying to enjoy it and thought about how I didn't like how G4 reacted to my telling him that I townread one of his posts and it isn't the kind of reaction i expected from town i dont want to be thinking about this i want to play videogame ok thank you bye

[Lady 8]

If you scumread both halves of G4L2 and townread L4 strongly, why didn't you try to get town to flip Rosalina is the Best Character In Mario Tennis first??

ugh you're so exhausting. I'm gonna go get an ice cream
pedit: I DID.

i mean, she did yeah

Spoiler: mor lady 1 stuff

My question for Lady 1

Who is your biggest scumread aside from G4 or L2 and why?

Is this the part you're not understanding? I never said scum have to be in the 2-4 pairs if they all flipped town I would shrug my shoulders and go oh well and look more closely at the remaining pairs because that would be the part where I need to look for the next scum. I really wish you didn't ask this question because I don't want to pull focus away from 2-4 who should still be the lynch today regardless. I even told my partner I was gonna make the scum case next dance

If you really want me to answer that question in the next 3 days I will but I rather you changed it because I'm gonna make the answer to that real quick during dance 2.

I find it hard to scumread this mindset. Upon being asked for her main scumread, she replies "Idfk kill 2/4 then we'll figure it out." I'd expect scum lady 1 to at least point back to her prior quotes where she shows she wanted L6/G3, or show something, anything. Instead she takes this route:

If you really want me to answer that question in the next 3 days I will but I rather you changed it because I'm gonna make the answer to that real quick during dance 2.

Why not now?

Because people will be more willing to listen when your pair is dead. Along with the fact I plan on leaving the dance if I'm wrong.

Threatening to sacrifice her pair in the event G4/L2 flip all town. Hm. If G4/L2 is all town and Lady 1 is scum, she's sacrificing her own endgame. For no reason-- G4/L2 were very unlikely to endgame as it was, Lady 1 didn't really need to do anything

I don't see any advantage for scum to adopt the mindset of "Just kill the 4/2 pairs omfg we'll figure it out later I'll sacrifice myself anyway for you if this is wrong"

(This is the part where someone points out "BUT THAT'S WHAT THEY WANT YOU TO THINK")

Yeah well I got that response last time when I decided Gent 2 was likely town. Maybe you're right and I'm thinking too small, I guess. It just seems odd to me. Gent 7 didn't trip me up like Gent 2 did / Lady 1 is, as far as I can remember. I'm not trying to townread every person who does the self sacrifice bit-- Gent 7's was definitely lower effort and not for no potential gain like I feel Gent 2 / Lady 1's play is. Gent 7 just acted LAMIST because he needed to look better than one person. Both Gent 2 and Lady 1 aren't gaining anything nor are they really trying to.

I don't think the potential of tripping up people with WIFOM justifies it either, do you see anything responding positively to the WIFOMy gambits (aside from me)? Gent 2's self sacrificial behaviour just played a part in getting him killed

Gent 2 gave out a huge plan for what we should do after his death, he tried to make a pact with me to go down after him, etc. which was very unnecessary if he was just going to die and flip red and lose credibility. Gent 2 was never going to save himself by doing it, and I think he knew that, so it would only serve to assist us in finding his scummate after his death

Now for my theory on Lady 1, she's sacrificing her townread status from yesterday by today essentially just taking the strategy of "Just kill both LHF we'll figure it out after that" today. She's not bothering to explain a lot of her read changes and stuff like that. She's going as far as threatening to sacrifice her own pair in the event there's no scum in G4/L2 (which, if Lady 1 is scum, I'm gonna say there very likely isn't.) This is all to take out the slot that was most likely to die anyway.

What I find to be decently more likely than scum Lady 1 giving up on the game is just a somewhat lower effort, somewhat fed up Lady 1 just wanting to remove the pairs no one townreads. Clearly she isn't particularly worried how we view her from this. And all that just to try and eliminate Gent 4/Lady 2 who weren't in endgame consideration anyway. What's the point?

I also still townread her interactions with Gent 7. She hard pulled for him to get a partner with little reason. But I know nobody seems to really dig my theory on that

If people seriously think our pair is more likely to have scum over yours after doing a direct check between posts I will laugh in the gy happy to not have to deal with this game anymore.

Is it possible this is all an act and I'm being completely played by Lady 1 faking being fed up and shit and in reality she's just a really low effort scum? ;-;

hope not. Is that the more likely scenario though? I don't think so

Oh but if I'm not voting Lady 1, and Gent 4 is growing on me.. ummmmm how much time is there left? 2 days okay

So it'd be Lady 2 v. Gent 6 if I had to stick to the two current wagons, and I'd say I like Gent 6 better although that's not exactly fair given I've been reading a lot of Gent 6 recently and none of Lady 2

Gent 9 grew on me from what I recall, Gent 3 unknown, Gent 1 unknownish but above Gent 3.

If I were to guess I'd say there's scum in the town reads that I am totally blind to atm + one in [L2, G1, G3, outer chance of G6]. There's potential for both scum to be in there but I think I'd probably find the second by using the flip of the first

There's two ways i can see to approach voting within my PoE, I can either pick the person who collectively with their partner have the least towny status, or I can just pick who I think is the scummiest in the PoE, ignoring the partner.

As i've been playing so far this game I've actively avoiding voting any pairing with someone I feel really good about being town in it. I'm gonna say that's probably making it quite tricky to vote out scum. That combined with how I can't get like an active scumread on someone outside my town pool, so I can't pick a favourite anyway. It's a total bother really. I'll figure this out tomorrow when it's not 3 am, hopefully

[Lady 3]

Lady 8 is scummier than rand because she doesn't have scumreads
I also don't have any scumreads
I think we should vote her
if you don't understand please ctrl f my posts for "deluxe oil" ty

[Gentleman 8]

speaking of which, i would like to hear gentleman 5's town case for lady 8 too

[Gentleman 4]

on thinking about it, i would like gentleman 4 to towncase lady 2

Ok, here are the interactions with G7 and what I think.

Spoiler: G7/L2 Interactions

2 and 4 aren't as good.

G7 is giving his initial reads, and Lady 2 and 4 were grouped together. Lady 4 was town, so this makes me think that Lady 2 is probably town, but this might be a bit of a reach. I'll call it NAI.

I don't trust Lady 1.

2 and 4 aren't as good.

Explain this.

This is L2's reaction to G7's initial shade on her. This itself is NAI, but G7 never responded to her which would be weird if they were scum together as they would want to get maximum distancing value.

Including G7?

This is L2's response to L4 saying that other gentleman have been better than G2. I would say this is NAI.

I mean in all likelihood the choice doesn't matter because you're gonna end up leaving eventually anyway.

Here she's saying it doesn't really matter if you take G2 or G7 because they both are people who are going to get kicked out of the dance relatively early. I think this is more townie because she's grouping G2/G7 in the same category which sorta shows uncertainty, and I feel like scum would have a harder time doing that.

Would either G2 or G7 flipping scum help your reads to a significant degree?

I guess G7 flipping scum would be more informative given his proposal to L6.

I wonder how L2 feels about L6 now that G7 flipped scum. Anyways, I think that's a reasonable thing to say because while G7 and G2 were both sorta calling out people without reasoning, G7's initial pursuit of L6 was probably significant.

G7's current thoughts don't feel consistent with his earlier play.
If the game was as simple as a single town town pair he wouldn't deem predance worthless as that would be the only phase that actually matters.

I want him dead.

This is exactly what I was thinking, actually. The defeatism and willingness to suicide because it's only one town pair that matters and he thinks he knows what pair it is doesn't really square with his earlier comment that everyone's reads are going to reverse when the dance starts.

This is where she starts to prefer G2 over G7, and I think it makes sense timing wise as G7 started with his suicidal attitude after the previous two quoted posts. However, I can't really tell if this is scum who is bussing vs. town who genuinely agrees. But the progression is good.

If I am going down this phase, G7/L4 should be our winning pair.

what

Also this is a hot take

It's a garbage take.

Garbage takes are generally towny unless they serve a transparently scum agenda, which this doesn't.

This is her reaction to G2 calling G7/L4 a winning pair. I would probably have the same reaction, and I do agree that garbage takes come from town more often than not. I noticed that L2 uses one word responses when she is surprised or wants to know more about takes, and she also did this to G7 earlier. The similar interaction with G2/G7 seems like a reverse TMI thing which is townie.

I assume the implication is that I was trying to avoid pairing with G7

But a gent was gonna be left out and if I were scum I would have loved to be the one to seal G7's death. I did already say that I didn't really see anyone directly engaging me asking me to hold off on pairing or suggesting an alternative.

This is in response to G5 saying that L2's decision to pair with me was because she was afraid of being paired with G7. The thing about waiting it out and sealing G7's death seems like a reasonable answer, but it's also WIFOM. This is NAI to me.

As it was I don't see why I should have been afraid of being narrowed down to G7 or someone else, and even if I were, I wouldn't mind at all letting G7 get left out because he was almost certainly going to die early even if he wasn't.

I don't really get the first part of her response about getting narrowed down for G7, but the second part is a good response to G5's accusation that she was looking for G7 to pair with someone. This is still NAI.

unless someone has some new angle i haven't considered here, i'd rather move away from the whole "gentleman 7 interactions definitely make her town" to what she's done that actually looks town

Well yeah, I certainly disagree that G7 interactions make L6 town. Even if you assume that scum would never pair with each other, it very well could have been distancing since L6 never really even entertained the possibility of accepting him.

Ok, so this is her thoughts on how scum G7 could impact the alignment of L6. I feel like she was setting up for something a little more concrete(like one direction or another) in 1365, so I'm not really sure what to make of this.

It's certainly plausible and it would explain why G2 and G7 were acting so weird. But I wouldn't say it's especially likely.

NAI, but I like that she says that she doesn't care to think about this too much in a later quote. Lack of opportunism.

Spoiler: Summary

I think L2's interactions with G7 are w/v rather than w/w because
-similar treatment of G2 and G7
-good progression of generally being somewhat suspicious of G7(like all of us) and not trying to set herself up or set G7 up

Might write something about why I think her play has been townie, but if this is enough, then I probably won't.

I'll be out of town for the weekend, just so you all know. Please don't do anything dumb. (She says, knowing that she'll probably be disappointed.)

This is townie though.

thought about how I didn't like how G4 reacted to my telling him that I townread one of his posts and it isn't the kind of reaction i expected from town

Well I'm town.

[Lady 1]

Probably leaving just waiting for Gent 6s consent.

[Gentleman 8]

why?

oddly enough while i was organising thoughts in my PT earlier (i say organising, but actually it's just a whole bunch of spam that i'm forcing lady 5 to sift through because

i enjoy inflicting pain on her

i'm thinking about things), i actually said i thought i might end up wanting lady 1 and gentleman 6 to be the endgame pair lol

though i wanted to do some reading tonight before i gave a final judgment on that (but i didn't because... other priorities)

[Lady 1]

I need to go MIA after tonight so I won't have time to do the case until the next phase like I said so I figured since we're probably getting executed anyway I better just declare the fact I'm leaving so people focus on the real wolves and not me. Never expected our pair to be end game anyway.

[Gentleman 5]

Don't leave. I'm going to towncase you tomorrow.

speaking of which, i would like to hear gentleman 5's town case for lady 8 too

I will towncase her tomorrow. Ladies 1 and 8.

[Lady 1]

Still think the end game pairs should be
5-8
3-9
1-7

More confident in 5/7/3 in each pair but yeah. Don't let Sherlock make end game please dear god.

[Gentleman 8]

i want to shore up some reads (like i want to revisit gentleman 9 so i can be confident about that one)

i don't really think i want gentleman 1 to be in the endgame

and uh... still thinking about gentleman 3 and lady 6. starting to think that might actually be a town pair but not super confident

and uh... i started thinking gentleman 4 and lady 2 might be town but also need to do some reading there

[Gentleman 4]

Probably leaving just waiting for Gent 6s consent.

Who were you going to case? G3?

[Gentleman 8]

actually i dont have any super good reason to call gentleman 3 town, i just wanted to go back and look at the circumstances around the lady 6 invite because im not really sure two scum both compete there? but i dont remember how it happened, ergo need to do some reading that i wont get around to for at least 8 hours or so (prob more)

[Lady 7]

@G4, I find your analysis of the interactions between G7 and L2 incorrect. I'm surprised you didn't bring it up when I questioned the interactions between G7 and L2 when I subbed in.

First, the rule of 3 suggests one of L1, L2, or L4 is scum. You selectively ignore the fact three players were mentioned to argue that two players mentioned in a line must both be town. That in and of itself is a fallacy.

Second, you argue that scum always go for maximum distancing. Letting a suspicion go is a great way to look distant but not really push the partner. It's not about what people say, it's about what they do. Push comes to shove, L2 didn't want G7 dead and G7 lets her get away with that shade.

Third, post 2096 is more indicative of S v S. Being in the last pairings with a scum partner would be very risky that pair gets lynched early thus resulting in two dead scum rather than one. Given a gentleman has to die anyway day 1, letting go the toxic player makes sense.

[Lady 1]

Probably leaving just waiting for Gent 6s consent.

Who were you going to case? G3?

Yep

[Gentleman 6]

Please don't walk yet. We can cross that edit bridge when we get to it.


It's our duty to case guy the third if it comes to it before we depart.

If you won't. I guess I'll have to.