Open 785: Secrets of the Anuket Topaz [Game over!]

[Eevee]

Spoiler:

~Eva

[Ydrasse]

@Ydrasse: Fair enough. Now explain why your read started to shift after I had made my case on S_S and voted him (my vote was second to Snow's at the time). Why did you then start defending him (1779) and then moving him simultaneously with Raya down (1780) after you had literally said:

ftr i don’t think i ever will vote raya at this point

just two hours before I made my case on S_S.

Let me put it all in a better "time schedule" for all to see:

1- Ydrasse states she won't be voting Raya EVER

2- 2 hours later I make a case on S_S and vote him (bringing his wagon to 2 votes with plenty of time left on the day)

3- 6 hours later 9and 8 from her "I'm not voting Raya" she starts by defending S_S and then moving him up and Raya down.

That was all within an 8 hours frame.

So, excuse me when I "press X for doubt" when I think you may have been deliberately away from the thread to make sure a mis-elimination occurred and that you didn't have to address the S_S case

i wasn't deliberately away; i asked for the game from you, and then didn't revisit it like i said. if you think i manufacture that block of time i really don't know what to tell you except i like getting my sleep. i wouldn't have asked for the case as scum just because like... what's the point? i ask for it and then i have to make up something about my scum partner from it? i'm talking from my pov obviously but it would've been easier to not say anything at all about s_s to begin with.

my solve has involved you for a good stretch of this game and that has been pretty obvious. however, the longer it's went on the more inclined i've felt to go over things again and re-organize my thoughts a bit. s_s and raya were formerly filling up the same sort of space where they were in the middle of the pack and i thought it was one of them and one of you/mena.

right now though i'm like. 90% sure this is the correct move.

VOTE: raya36

[Ydrasse]

do you... want me to keep static reads this entire game? like, do you WANT me to double-down on you today with no considerations at all? you were already irritated (?) to some degree it seemed like in 1824 for that sort of back and forth where there wasn't a lot of re-evaluation save for you + mena.

Your reevaluation sucked, especially since you ALSO posted the following DURING THE SAME 8 HOURS:

yeah. fmpov i still think it's a possibility that the case on montosh came eod to stop the a50 wagon from going through.

So it looks to me you refused to reevaluate on Menalque (Town), and me (Town), but you did reevaluate on S_S (Scum) and moved him up, and on Raya (leaning Town to me) and moved her down.

i mean, yeah, i wasn't reevaluating you two because i felt a certain amount of sureness in the reads i had then to where it didn't seem as important to me. i hadn't given s_s and raya as much attention so they were the people in that moment i was reading for.

[Ydrasse]

okay i am just going to quote a ton of these at once sorry if it gets messy.

also, what motivation do i have in that quote to townread s_s? like, how does that pan out in the exact scumteam where it is me and s_s; it'd be super weird for me to either a) townread my partner and escape during the night leaving that last minute change of opinion on him or b) townread my partner who is escaping during the night, begging the question of why i wouldn't just stick to my guns about "oh i think s_s is probably the scum on the mae wagon out of him and raya". it just puts way too much attention on either of us in that situation.

You weren't even supporting the theory of scum bussing. You wanted to eliminate off the Snow wagon all the way.

On fact, the only time you voted S_S on 1413 and it lasted for 8 full hours (what's with you and the 8 hours time frames?)

i wasn't, no. it didn't make sense to me frankly and felt too risky.

(i show up when the mood strikes me and when i have the time. eight hours apparently keep me sustained.)

and yes i voted s_s at some point to switch it but as i said in that post it was a safety thing that fit into my perception of how the scum were probably playing; it was not my preferred vote by the end of things though, but something i was Okay with. not my favorite but i wasn't balking at the idea of it. my vote changed to someone i thought could also be scum when asked.

doubly so given that the person who was killed was the person who was most adamant about me being scum. fmpov it's just a way to put more attention on me today and hope that there can be a miselim pushed through off of it so that the last scum can escape tonight. you can think that it's wifom and that i Would Do That As Scum but like, /shrug.

Of course I think it's WIFOM. Titus is the type of player that is stubborn about her VCA. You probably thought it would be easier to change everyone else's minds, and ESPECIALLY with S_S escaping, so "double bus isn't an option" would be your argument (and believe you me; some will buy into it still).

If I/RCE were scum the right move was for that person to escape last night, because we are heavily linked together. I know some will still think "they wouldn't have escaped if X was their partner" but: (a) It's the same kind of WIFOM you're using to say it ain't you, and (b) if it was me AND RCE we wouldn't have had a choice really. One of us would have had to escape, and the other would use that WIFOM from A to try and survive.

i mean, everyone seems to put a decent amount of weight into titus' vca so i doubt anyone's minds would change regarding her viewpoint on that. like, again this is fmpov but as scum her impact on me is there and it wouldn't matter if she was here or not to keep pushing it. everyone is going to go look at her being dead and remember what she posted about me, or she is going to be alive if i don't kill her as hypothetical scum and keep pushing. you can think that i would bother with it as scum or not because it's just speculation for you if you're town.

To elaborate on (b): It is now a KNOWN FACT that the team is NOT A50/RCE. So, only ONE AT MAX of the pair can be scum. If they escape they open the door wide open for the other (the townie of them) to be mis-eliminated on the basis that "they had no choice, and one had to escape anyway".

this is also part of why my focus is off of you, because there just... isn't a world where i see you partnered with s_s after trying to start a push on him like you did. i could have believed you/mena or you/rce, but given that neither of those are the teams you just don't make sense to me anymore as being scum.

[Ydrasse]

And it would have been the town player on the Snow wagon vs the 3 unconfirmed on the Mae wagon still. Do you think I (or RCE) would have had a chance against S_S (assuming you are town here).

Like, let's do a hypothetical proposition here: Let's say I am scum with S_S. Let's say I escaped last night instead of him. Who would YOU have pushed today between RCE, S_S & Raya?

i think that i would have turned more of my attention onto rce because of the townreads that formed between you two. there would be that sort of connection there that would baffle me, and the way that rce's townread on you was sort of "won over" (1102).

however, to be frank it'd be a harder place for me to read because a) rce otherwise i really like, content-wise and b) i think that, from that place, i'd be more inclined to view s_s and raya as potentials. probably more likely raya than s_s because i've finally gotten it through my head that bussing isn't a thing that can be really Done here and your push on s_s would seem a bit too risky (i do not like risks as a player and i sort of push that onto others).

in that timeline, i would be having a worse time is basically what i am saying.

[Ydrasse]

also, what motivation do i have in that quote to townread s_s? like, how does that pan out in the exact scumteam where it is me and s_s; it'd be super weird for me to either a) townread my partner and escape during the night leaving that last minute change of opinion on him or b) townread my partner who is escaping during the night, begging the question of why i wouldn't just stick to my guns about "oh i think s_s is probably the scum on the mae wagon out of him and raya". it just puts way too much attention on either of us in that situation.

Scum can't bus, so I'm not sure what your argument is here with the "what would my motivation be as scum?" Is the counterargument it being too obvious? I already said in the Menalque case, but I don't think that's a good reason since it's still scum motivation + you can always try to explain it with WIFOM.

Can you explain your RCE read?

~Eva

i just don't see like... motivation behind a scum!rce this game. i will admit that i have a bit of bias towards being defended, lmfao, but in reality... i can believe the push on snowblaze and on menalque as being backed by townie thoughts. there's a consistency behind everything and i've not felt that any of the posts as we've gone later into the game are trying to push miselims through on shady reasons?

there's an active effort to gamesolve which feels natural, basically. 1353, 1621, 1884 are all examples of this. there's not really anything that i can sit here and think to myself as scummy.

[Ydrasse]

raya, regarding s_s (of note):

1065: a non-committal townread leaning slightly towards town, with the most room to be scum out of (raya, ydrasse, s_s).
1126: also suggesting the possibility of s_s as scum again; skeptical of voting in this pool.
1179: s_s is town. entire mae wagon is town.
1256: does not believe the team is s_s/ydrasse.
1261: raya/ydrasse/s_s does not makes sense at all as scum.
1276: defends s_s as not bussing without a partner.
1408: warming up to the idea of scum!s_s. votes s_s.
1436: when asked about voting s_s, refers to 1276.
1496: attempts to push a s_s wagon.
1499: responding to s_s; refers back to scum being on 1 of each wagon again.
1501: "I now think it's wrong to say scum couldn't have bussed in this set-up unless both bus together."
1505: to s_s: "... Why are you so against there being scum on each wagon?"
1515: reasons why she is voting s_s; "Snowblaze vote seemed uncaring". earlier onward, uncaring was a reason that raya was tring s_s, albeit to a small degree.
1517: poe points to s_s.
1522: "Or you switched your vote because you realized Mae was going down and you decided to bus to get town-cred."
1524: willing to disengage from the s_s wagon onto ydrasse despite thinking that she shares an alignment with ydrasse.
1802: s_s most likely scum between rce/s_s.
1854: s_s is town.
1901: reasons as to why s_s is town.

honestly i just wanted to document this (and please feel free to read for yourself and draw your own conclusions because i'm biased at this point). i also might have missed some things but it is super late here.

[Ydrasse]

things of note to me:

- the entire exchange that s_s and raya had during the early 1500s, postwise, feels in retrospect to me like a half-hearted svs fight that doesn't really go anywhere and it doesn't get traction. to her part, raya sticks to it for a little bit after going back and forth on whether or not scum would bus. she's for it for a little bit, then against it, and then the vote on s_s comes down. i think that the reasons aren't really that strong, and raya seemed okay to disengage from the s_s push despite not being a fan of the ongoing wagons at the time. now it seems like a weird theater thing going on especially given that s_s was willing to throw down the vote onto her as well in 1519.

in general, i think that the "pushes" they did on one another are pretty half-hearted and there was never a real drive to get a lot of momentum onto either of them. there was some efforts to get people to consider the two of them respectively but not a great wagon. s_s made posts like 1539 where he sort of piggybacked off of montosh asking about raya, but in general he never made an effort for people to wagon onto her. this plays into 1835 and 1836 respectively, where he brings back his raya sr which feels super performative to me ("Probably a moot point since there doesn't seem to be nearly enough support to kill her.") i even asked about why raya wasn't an option to him and it was just "no one was voting her and no one was interested". which... i guess is probably what a scum!s_s wants for his partner, lmao. it feels like distancing though.

- the fact that he was happy to throw out a raya/me scumteam in 1835 despite it going against his philosophy this entire game of 1 off/1 on feels like a slip-up to me, where he forgot that he was supposed to be pushing for the game to be read a certain way.

- 1554 from s_s, 1557 from raya. this is from the perspective of where i am now, but i feel like this might have been a way for s_s to allow raya a way to ease out of her townread on me later down the road in order to push on me when and if it was convenient. it seems weird that s_s, still voting raya, still happy to place that fos on her, would bring up this odd point. like yeah it could be to discredit her logic in that moment but here i am now.

- 1973 feels at odds with the analysis she provided on me and my interactions with s_s. "better choice interaction-wise" doesn't really... feel coherent when it's compared to the times that s_s has said it's crazy that we would be paired. also to be frank i don't see how i am better off here not escaping between me/s_s but that's the Bias.

- raya in general has done this sort of back and forth with clearing me for odd reasons, i feel. the first being that she thought that she and i were aligned and that she walked it back after talking to s_s, and the second being her thinking that i was genuine for my reaction to the game "ending". yes, it is easy to fake, everyone knows this, but the moment where she was believing me feels more like her trying to hedge towards a former tr on me before walking it back (1977) when all of the scrutiny is on me.

so yeah. wee. i think that raya is the big bad wolf, like subscribe and comment. i might do the reverse (s_s regarding raya) tomorrow.

[Raya36]

I will say it makes a lot of sense that if one scum bused then they both bused so happy to look at the Mohab wagon with a fresh eye.

I'd agree it looks a lot more likely. No buss means it's me or A50. A50 doubled down on SS elim yesterday. If it's me there was a ton of unnecessary cross-bussing going on.

My gut says Raya but menalque and Titus were both set on ydrasse.

I guess it likely was a double bus then because I just don't see it being anyone other than Ydrasse rn. You and A50 just don't make any sense.

I wonder if Ydrasse supported or argued against it being a double bus? I'll look into that

[Raya36]

things of note to me:

1

- the entire exchange that s_s and raya had during the early 1500s, postwise, feels in retrospect to me like a half-hearted svs fight that doesn't really go anywhere and it doesn't get traction. to her part, raya sticks to it for a little bit after going back and forth on whether or not scum would bus. she's for it for a little bit, then against it, and then the vote on s_s comes down. i think that the reasons aren't really that strong, and raya seemed okay to disengage from the s_s push despite not being a fan of the ongoing wagons at the time. now it seems like a weird theater thing going on especially given that s_s was willing to throw down the vote onto her as well in 1519.

in general, i think that the "pushes" they did on one another are pretty half-hearted and there was never a real drive to get a lot of momentum onto either of them. there was some efforts to get people to consider the two of them respectively but not a great wagon. s_s made posts like 1539 where he sort of piggybacked off of montosh asking about raya, but in general he never made an effort for people to wagon onto her. this plays into 1835 and 1836 respectively, where he brings back his raya sr which feels super performative to me ("Probably a moot point since there doesn't seem to be nearly enough support to kill her.") i even asked about why raya wasn't an option to him and it was just "no one was voting her and no one was interested". which... i guess is probably what a scum!s_s wants for his partner, lmao. it feels like distancing though.

2

- the fact that he was happy to throw out a raya/me scumteam in 1835 despite it going against his philosophy this entire game of 1 off/1 on feels like a slip-up to me, where he forgot that he was supposed to be pushing for the game to be read a certain way.

3

- 1554 from s_s, 1557 from raya. this is from the perspective of where i am now, but i feel like this might have been a way for s_s to allow raya a way to ease out of her townread on me later down the road in order to push on me when and if it was convenient. it seems weird that s_s, still voting raya, still happy to place that fos on her, would bring up this odd point. like yeah it could be to discredit her logic in that moment but here i am now.

4

- 1973 feels at odds with the analysis she provided on me and my interactions with s_s. "better choice interaction-wise" doesn't really... feel coherent when it's compared to the times that s_s has said it's crazy that we would be paired. also to be frank i don't see how i am better off here not escaping between me/s_s but that's the Bias.

5

- raya in general has done this sort of back and forth with clearing me for odd reasons, i feel. the first being that she thought that she and i were aligned and that she walked it back after talking to s_s, and the second being her thinking that i was genuine for my reaction to the game "ending". yes, it is easy to fake, everyone knows this, but the moment where she was believing me feels more like her trying to hedge towards a former tr on me before walking it back (1977) when all of the scrutiny is on me.

so yeah. wee. i think that raya is the big bad wolf, like subscribe and comment. i might do the reverse (s_s regarding raya) tomorrow.

1 - I don't know what to say to the first part except that it's not theater and I was genuinely unsure on what the bussing situation could be and my read on SS was quite dependent on that. I do wish I kept at that though since I was clearly on the right track questioning him about being against a double bus.

2- That's ss not me

3- That was also mostly ss. All I can say is that SS was right.

4- That was just kind of an afterthought. Not really much you can do with it. I never really looked into whether Ydrasse or SS would have been the better escape choice though. Kind of a hard thing to look into though.

5- Where is the scum motivation in that? That's just me being indecisive as usual

[Raya36]

A quick iso on Ydrasse searching "bus" brings up that she apparently didn't state an opinion.

I also double checked her stances so far on D4
The biggest thing I noticed is that she's open for me or A50. She's obviously pushing me but she said it's between me and A50.

Next if you check A50... wants Ydrasse eliminated and to my understanding doesn't want me or RCE eliminated?
Now RCE... is debating between me or Ydrasse. Gut says me but knows that Menalque and Titus were both set on Ydrasse
And for myself I can only see it being Ydrasse

So of the unconfirmed players only 2 are keeping options open and that's Ydrasse and RCE and RCE makes no sense based on associations.

[Fredrick A Campbell]

I absolutely did not expect this game to last this long and am also involved in another game. Give me some time to read this game before I comment on anything. I'll make a little post saying that I have no comment if I don't have any comments after reading through everything.

[northsidegal]

Votecount 4.1

Ydrasse

.............

(1):

Raya36 (2018)

Raya36

..............

(1):

Ydrasse (2026)

Not Voting

..........

(6):

Umlaut, Fredrick A Campbell, Eevee, Snowblaze, RCEnigma, Almost50

With 8 alive, it’s 5 to lynch. The Day 4 deadline is in (expired on 2020-08-19 15:50:59).

[northsidegal]

the worst replaces Snowblaze.

[the worst]

not that guy!! he's the worst ugh

[the worst]

Umlaut is aligned with the

Town

.

Fredrick A Campbell is aligned with the

Town

.

Eevee is aligned with the

Town

.

Snowblaze is aligned with the

Town

.

Titus is aligned with the

Town

.

Day 2 begins.

Rce/a50/ydra/Raya PoE right?

[Fredrick A Campbell]

Umlaut is aligned with the

Town

.

Fredrick A Campbell is aligned with the

Town

.

Eevee is aligned with the

Town

.

Snowblaze is aligned with the

Town

.

Titus is aligned with the

Town

.

Day 2 begins.

Rce/a50/ydra/Raya PoE right?

That's right. Hope you have a few tricks up your sleeve to help us crack the "Mystery of who Killed Titus for the Anuket Topaz".

[the worst]

tricks? uhhhh I'll try my best uh
I have some gum if that helps?

[Fredrick A Campbell]

Thank you, but I don't eat gum.

[the worst]

talk to me about menalque - our scumflip is offwagon, and the wagon was reasonably well padded with ICs
who struck you as opportunistic around it? who felt EMPOWERED AND RIGHTEOUS about menalque being scum?
do you think you were deceived, or do you think town danced off a cliff? noting that SS was probably not the immediate deceiver
what do you think about SS choosing to escape rather than ~whoever his buddy is~

[Fredrick A Campbell]

I believe the fact that I have not thought of any of those questions just shows how bad I am at this game.

I will think it through so that I can give you a well thought out answer. Don't have time to do that right now, but you could expect it in 24 hours.

[the worst]

Votecount 1.Final

Maemuki

.............

(7):

Eevee

(622), Raya36 (634),

Snowblaze

(646), Ydrasse (658),

Something_Smart

(839),

Titus

(882),

Umlaut

(903)

Snowblaze

...........

(6):

RCEnigma (672),

Montosh

(785), Almost50 (814),

Fredrick A Campbell

(824),

Menalque

(852),

Maemuki

(878)

Not Voting

..........

(0):

With 13 alive, it’s 7 to lynch. Maemuki has been lynched.

i would normally assert that bussing is counter-intuitive in this setup, but also kinda have to acknowledge that at a minimum, SS bussed.
so is the second busser in this situatio raya or ydrasse? given they're crossvoting now i can't help but wonder if one of them has been keeping the other alive/unconfirmed to set them up for this ~~
or is mohab/maemuki staying off their cw for so long to distance from rce or a50?

it's like a big technicolour jigsaw puzzle. i'm excited!

[the worst]

I believe the fact that I have not thought of any of those questions just shows how bad I am at this game.

I will think it through so that I can give you a well thought out answer. Don't have time to do that right now, but you could expect it in 24 hours.

it shows something very different actually! we have different thought processes, and i have freshly replaced into the game.
i'd value your input quite highly, since we're just as likely to come up with different answers, as we are to come up with different questions.

[the worst]

@ydra
assume i'm tired & fairly hung over and not really prepared to deepdive your walls of analysis above
can you give me a couple of sentences on why any of that actually makes the other person likely to be mafia aligned with SS?

@raya
i'll probably ask you to do roughly the same

[the worst]

The good news is: I am home
The bad news is: I am beat and really need to sleep

I'll probably read back tomorrow, but right now I will do this:

VOTE: S_S

I am assuming AT LEAST one scum bus'd and one didn't. The 3 unconfirmed on Mae's wagon were Raya, Ydrasse & S_S. I think the scum of them likely fence-sat yesterday, in an attempt not to be caught on a miselimination. "I was on the scum wagon but not on the Town wagon" is a good defence from scum PoV. S_S is the one that fits the profile. Ydrasse & RTaya were both on me, and I was this close to being eliminated myself. If that had happened they'd have looked bad (almost as bad as Menalque does for many), so I conclude S_S is the one scum ON the Mae wagon, but I really can't decide whether the 2nd scum was also on the Mae wagon (Ydrasse) or the Snow wagon (Menalque). (My problem is Menalque has been promoting himself as a GOOD scum player, and I did witness his Scum game once and he was indeed good, so I am not sure if this is his bad town play or his attempt on being too scummy to be scum.)

Aside from that, S_S is play is reminding me of his play in the previous game (with me and Menalque) when he was Scum. He looks disengaged and rarely intervenes. He refused to bus in that game though, and that's what kept him off the bottom of my readlist here, but the thing is I can't see Raya+Ydrasse as a team that double bus'd and then decided to powerpush me on D2 too. In fract, I don't think this is Raya's scum game at all, so it's either S_S or Ydrasse (or both). Oh, and the reason I firmly believe at least one scum bus'd is the fact I know I'm Town and the confidence I have in my TR on RCE.

Disclaimer: Sleep on this for 24 hours if you will. I don't even know if what I've just typed reflects my thoughts accurately or not, because I am

falling asleep already

. Please do ask me for elaboration on whatever you think doesn't make sense or is unclear to you and I will respond when I come back next (in less than 12-16 hours ideally, but give it up to 24 hours at max)

Daily reminder that S_S is scum with ydrasse or Menalque and should be the elimination here.

What if I fakeclaimed a guilty on S_S? Would that help?? Hmmm.. guess not.

OK, I'll come clean. I'm a Jailkeeper, and I jailkept S_S twice. This is why scum have not been able to kill yet. (Yeah, THAT'll work)

But seriously, I dunno why everybody's being considered BUT S_S. I want someone to enlighten me, cuz he feels so much like he was in the previous game (with the exception of the bus vote as I said earlier)

How moved was everyone by A50 correctly scumcasing SS?
did he have enough clout that this was unlikely to be a bus?