Open 785: Secrets of the Anuket Topaz [Game over!]

[Raya36]

I can look again but I don't roll scum very often

viewtopic.php?f=2&t=83530 - Killed N1

Thanks! (How do you keep getting *killed* as scum?)

Anyway, I still think Raya’s towny. There’s been some flashes of raw townieness she’s shown here that I don’t think scum!her can’t replicate.

~Eva

I can't even remember. I guess probably vigged?

[Raya36]

i’m not going to tell you anyone other than you??? i’ve already said why i townread a50 in this situation and i’m not going to go back on that.

why do you keep framing this like i am inevitably going to switch? because i had two people in mind at the start of the day? you seem to keep emphasizing that i am only on you out of convenience.

Again from my point of view that's the only thing I can see possible. I can't see it being A50 or RCE and if you're scum I'm the smart convenient push

[the worst]

basically ya I'm not sure why a lot of these conversations are still happening

[Ydrasse]

i don’t know who it is if not raya. that’s all i’ve got to offer and if i’m gonna get elimmed at this point then so be it i guess

[Eevee]

someone w Raya meta please reassure me that her calm and very pleasant tonality is just a feature of her playstyle as either alignment

I wanna say yes.

@Umlaut, Fredrick, where're you two at? Fredrick, have you outted who your main suspect is?

~Eva

[Raya36]

Idk if you want self-meta but for what it's worth I don't consider myself an aggressive player regardless of alignment even in 1v1 situations

[the worst]

yeah, if I had to find a way to compare this to my understanding of your meta I'd call it exactly on brand. you're like, earnest and seem to enjoy the game. but you're very likeable and don't seem to take it too seriously.

so it's probably not AI here; I'm just tending back towards the other stuff I'm seeing

[the worst]

i don’t know who it is if not raya. that’s all i’ve got to offer and if i’m gonna get elimmed at this point then so be it i guess

I'm probably confbiasing atp so outsourcing:
anyone else find Ydra giving up here kinda scummy?

[Almost50]

I am virtually here, but my mind is not

Considering that none of the confirmed townies made any serious attempt to town!case Ydrasse; I am assuming they don't have a case there, so I am going to vote Ydrasse the next time I check this thread. If anyone has anything to say or need more time, please state so explicitly.

[Fredrick A Campbell]

someone w Raya meta please reassure me that her calm and very pleasant tonality is just a feature of her playstyle as either alignment

I wanna say yes.

@Umlaut, Fredrick, where're you two at? Fredrick, have you outted who your main suspect is?

~Eva

I have. However, I am a lot less confident in my read as, in attempting to support it, I have found there is nothing to suggest my guess is even close to being right. To the contrary, there is plenty suggesting my guess is wrong, so my position now is that it is not Almost50.

[the worst]

I have. However, I am a lot less confident in my read as, in attempting to support it, I have found there is nothing to suggest my guess is even close to being right. To the contrary, there is plenty suggesting my guess is wrong, so my position now is that it is not Almost50.

\o\ mood /o/

[northsidegal]

Votecount 4.2

Ydrasse

.............

(2):

Raya36 (2018), the worst (2125)

Raya36

..............

(1):

Ydrasse (2026)

Not Voting

..........

(5):

Umlaut, Fredrick A Campbell, Eevee, RCEnigma, Almost50

With 8 alive, it’s 5 to lynch. The Day 4 deadline is in (expired on 2020-08-19 15:50:59).

[Fredrick A Campbell]

I have. However, I am a lot less confident in my read as, in attempting to support it, I have found there is nothing to suggest my guess is even close to being right. To the contrary, there is plenty suggesting my guess is wrong, so my position now is that it is not Almost50.

\o\ mood /o/

What does that mean?

[the worst]

I feel the same as 2160 to a t.

[Fredrick A Campbell]

I feel the same as 2160 to a t.

Did you mean 2159?

[RCEnigma]

This question is a bit leading TW but how likely do you think it is that SS redirects scum agenda upon replacing in?

For the hypothetical say wagons are forming on town but scum aren't interacting with the wagons. Just in general how do you think SS approaches his new scum partners OOT?

[the worst]

I feel the same as 2160 to a t.

Did you mean 2159?

Both.

[the worst]

This question is a bit leading TW but how likely do you think it is that SS redirects scum agenda upon replacing in?

For the hypothetical say wagons are forming on town but scum aren't interacting with the wagons. Just in general how do you think SS approaches his new scum partners OOT?

Maybe? Sure. Idk.
This is a quick game; he knows that nobody needs to endgame in the traditional sense. We never, ever play to like f3 for example.

All he knows is that his partner and he need to escape within two phases. I think he knows that he's on thin ice with a50 having shaded him without having a read and potentially needing to 1v1 him to win the game (1v1ing a50 is just an absurdly chaotic experience). Scum shoot Titus who was both suspecting Ydra, and is also a vca wizard. It's like evidenced that scum smelled Mohab's peril in the wind and decided to bus. I think it's very likely there was some distancing/softbussing y'day as well - like being "not associated enough for us to be linked literally tomorrow" is the wincon for scum interactions.

Which is a big part of why I was a bit anxious in townreading A50. But idk. I don't think SS' "he sure is a player" or whatever is particularly partnery. I think A50 is capable of having pushed more nonsense through as scum. I don't think he..... fits?

Raya could be it but it just feels like, anticlimactic. She feels like the player who is normally eliminated in scenarios like this not the player who is aligned with flipped scum. If we had a couple of phases left I think she'd be a great contender but we have one bullet, so I think we need to get a bit more creative.

I'm actually probably more suspicious of you than Raya than A50 atp - it's also kinda PoE-ey but like. the more I think about it Ydra also fits my impression of the way scum in her shoes should be performing in this game.

Like all they need is for people to panic long enough not to kill them
Or to panic and kill someone else
so flinging everything she has at Raya and praying is like exact wincon
I think town in her shoes is probably more inclined to get paranoid of A50 or revisit her read on you
It just feels...maybe constructed?...definitely convenient

:shrug: I think it's just her

[the worst]

Sorry I didn't really answer your question directly. I think there was probably a double bus on Mohab/Maemuki. SS definitely bussed that slot. I think it stands to reason that he distanced/softbussed the other.

Bearing in mind my stance on the immediacy of the scum wincon and the facts SS both already has bussed, and is like overwhelmingly sensible?

yeah sure. I think he redirects the scum agenda on rep in if he's not comfortable with the direction it's headed in.

[RCEnigma]

The timeframe I was getting at was moreso around his rep in itself and not his day 2 play. Specifically his rep in prompted some wagon movement out of Raya and a case could be made they spawned out of suggestions via SS.

I don't think it's Ydrasse but I had ydrasse with SS as one of the most likely if SS flipped scum and I think it has to do with lack of interaction day 1 but I'm not solid on that.

His mini spat with Raya day 2 just looked really contrived from the outside looking in and even as it was playing out I thought it looked awful but I could see SS leaving that interaction as a red herring.

I haven't really seen Raya as townie as everyone else seems to. The only thing that makes me think hmm town is probably more likely to do this is when Raya defaulted her vote back to Frederick after agreeing he likely towntold. It's offbeat enough to be town just blanking on what's going on.

[RCEnigma]

I'm actually probably more suspicious of you than Raya than A50 atp - it's also kinda PoE-ey but like.

I don't mind you suspecting me. It would help me more if it was any of the unconfirmed pushing in my direction but you suspecting me is paranoia that I understand. I'm not particularly worried, I think there is enough to support that I'm just town here. At least enough to dissuade the confirmed from losing the game on my elim.

[the worst]

It's probably more of a growing discomfort at the idea of eliminating Raya than a scumread on you. if that makes any sense. it might just be my mood too.

[the worst]

His mini spat with Raya day 2 just looked really contrived from the outside looking in and even as it was playing out I thought it looked awful but I could see SS leaving that interaction as a red herring.

This is definitely astute.
I think the reverse is true for his comment about SS/Ydra being ridiculous in a way? Unless the last scum is A50 he's intentionally left little breadcrumbs or red herrings to his partner & the set miselim. I have this wonky feeling we're meant to be reading into his decision to leave before his partner but I also don't really feel inclined to do that

[the worst]

I haven't really seen Raya as townie as everyone else seems to. The only thing that makes me think hmm town is probably more likely to do this is when Raya defaulted her vote back to Frederick after agreeing he likely towntold. It's offbeat enough to be town just blanking on what's going on.

I guess I could crunch through someone's iso and talk thru what strikes me as towny or not towny until I talk myself into it or out of it if you want? I definitely remember her trajectory fail on Frederick and like yeah it didn't strike me as agenda-fulfilling. it felt kinda clumsy & like maybe a real thought

[the worst]

I suppose I'd expect scum who were pushing someone who then towntold to be fairly wary of the towntell

whereas I can absolutely buy being unsure about how to read Freddie in the heat of the moment. I don't think he's the type of player to like exert oppressive levels of sheer obvtown energy. When I've read games with him previously I've generally found him kinda nullish until a certain Cerebral Moment

Or maybe Raya jumping back to Frederick was just uncertainty and opportunism or like trying to avoid the scum wagon actually going through

Who knows ~~

friendly reminder scum made the decision to clear Fred (even tho he was p unlikely aligned with Mohab but whatever) - do we think Raya allows that kind of loose end in her iso as endgame wolf?