Mini 2156: Launch Mob [Game Over]

[Umlaut]

Vote Count 3.1

Not voting

(5): Blair, CantLynchAPuppy, ready2rock, Kerset, midwaybear

With 5 alive, it takes 3 votes to launch.

Deadline

: (expired on 2020-08-28 21:36:00)

[CantHateAPuppy]

I think we have a mislaunch

[midwaybear]

so do you think it's more likely that kerset's lying or that there is a bulletproof mafia?

[CantHateAPuppy]

Possibilities ranked:

1) kerset is BP backup but there's no BP, it's a red herring
2) kerset is scum lying
3) kerset is traitor signalling to scum
4) kerset is BP and the town BP won't out
5) kerset is BP and the scum have a BP

Maybe 5 should be higher since there is a vig? IDK. The more I thought about this yesterday the more I realized there were a lot of options that all lead back to null.

Kerset would be an OK launch because theres wifom there now and the traitor/scum possibility is there, but I want to poke around Blair / midway before I commit

[ready2rock]

OK, so help me understand real quick, because setup stuff is not my forte here

Is Kerset role claiming? Both things listed seem to both be modifiers and not roles? Or would the role look like "If someone who is bulletproof dies, you become bulletproof"

If I'm following the logic correctly, then the argument is that Bulletproof backup -> Bulletproof role -> Traitor -> 2 town, 1 traitor, 1 mafia left if we get it wrong today -> mafia win if we get it wrong today? Making sure I'm understanding why we think we're in LyLo

And puppy seems to be saying that it's likely 1 may not imply 2 (in other words, bulletproof backup may not mean bulletproof role), but I'm also unsure why 2 implies 3 (that the bulletproof role means it's a traitor)?

[CantHateAPuppy]

"Backup" is a role. Bulletproof backup is a specific claim, and wouldn't be combined with any other action

They're separate possibilities, not logical 1) implies -> 2) -> 3). Ranked from most likely to least likely, though actually 5) "scum has a BP" seems a little likelier to me now since it would be a good way to balance a big (especially in a small game)

I think now there is no traitor, I think this setup would make a lot of sense:


* Gunsmith
* Vig
* 6 VT
* 1 BP maf
* Mafia goon

I'm not sure if a town BP backup makes sense (scum dies so town gets extra power? What?). Which is why it could be a red herring or a scum lie. But it's not totally implausible either

[CantHateAPuppy]

Given all that I think traitor is unlikely, so I don't think it's LYLO and we have a mislaunch. If we accept r2r as clear that's 4 players and 2 launches, minus yourself

So if I had to pick 2/3 of Blair/kerset/midway. Well I think it depends on Blair coming in and convincing me town. RN I'm thinking midway

[CantHateAPuppy]

Let me put this one other way

Kerset is either scum or town

If scum, it makes more sense for there to not be a traitor. 2 scum + traitor is a lot of power for town to fight. Gunsmith has a guilty on the vig already, the setup is pretty balanced without a traitor

If town, it makes more sense to not have a traitor. If kerset is telling the truth the BP backup is either a red herring, or scum have a BP, which in either case would be balanced without a traitor

[Umlaut]

Blair was prodded.

[Kerset]

It is quite uncommon for goon to have vest. If mod wants to give goon protection form vig then they are more likely to add hider or commute ability. I am pretty sure that reviewer like northsidegal would encourage skill-based solution there.
Vest is mostly associated with traitors, because possibility of mafia nightkilling their own member creates huge swing and something bold simply has to be added to prevent that.

[midwaybear]

VOTE: Blair
yeah, this is probably the way to go. Kerset sounds townie and puppy has been putting in lots of effort.

[ready2rock]

Thinking about the idea that Kerset is lying, what would scum's motivation would be to make a claim that added urgency to the town (by saying that we're in lylo) and was also unverifiable, making people skeptical of you and your claim?

Seems like it'd be overplaying for no reason

[Umlaut]

Seeking a replacement for Blair.

[CantHateAPuppy]

dun DUN DUUUUUUUNNNNNNN

[Umlaut]

Fidget replaces Blair.

[Umlaut]

Vote Count 3.2

Fidget

(1): midwaybear

Not voting

(4): Fidget, CantLynchAPuppy, ready2rock, Kerset

With 5 alive, it takes 3 votes to launch.

Deadline

: (expired on 2020-08-28 21:36:00)

[Fidget]

Hiya!

I notice there's an even amount of players in the game.. why 10 rather than 9? Has that been figured out?

I assume this isn't Xylo from one scum already being down, unless the setup is 7v3 somehow (traitor that doesnt count for scum wincon?). My goal is to reread the entire game so i will get back to you all

[midwaybear]

Hello!
We have not really figured why 10 instead of 9 yet, but I'm 50% sure you are scum

[Kerset]

I notice there's an even amount of players in the game.. why 10 rather than 9? Has that been figured out?

One reason could be the fact that vig shot turns it back to odd. The other is potential traitor existence.

[midwaybear]

why would a traitor mean even numbers?

[Kerset]

It doesn't mean even number. It means 10 rather then 9.

[Fidget]

kk finished my reread. I got lazy towards the end but it went alright

Spoiler: quick opinion on each slot

ready2rock -

Other than being confirmed from the vigilante claim, he was a counterwagon to Ydrasse that Ydrasse supported D1. I forgot about that towards the end of my notes and considered him a suspect again up until the claim. There aren't any obvious scum slots in this game to me..

Midwaybear -

I think his interactions with the flipped scum look particularly good on him. He pushed her very early and fairly seriously. Ydrasse, too, pushed back at him pretty hard.

He also makes a lot of comments that would surprise me if he's scum. Unsure if that's just him though

Kerset / BM -

BM was somewhat hesistant to let Ydrasse go, wanted to ensure IV's claim was all set in order first. He did vote Dunn at first as well.

Unsure what i make of the backup BM claim, need more thought on that

Kerset's reads are extremely interesting to me. Midway at the bottom, CLAP and Blair at the top? Are we readin the same game?

CLAP -

Has some decent posts but also felt less present than other players to me. Maybe i was missing some of his stuff.

I think I generally had a tendency to more agree with CLAP's opinions over BM's

I am curious as to why he townreads my slot so hard, when much of the game wanted to scumread her (a lot of slots that are dead now tbh but still i recall there being many). Kerset does this too

Spoiler: stream of consciousness notes

(5) I wonder if scum Ydrasse really RVS votes her partner midway.

Ready2rock and midway have the worst entrances to the thread (9) + (13). CLAP is better.

(31) kind of awkward scum PT joke by midway

(54) Ydrasse again fixates on midway

(65) Midway fixates on Ydrasse seriously their early posts focus on each other rather than other things quite a bit

Battle Mage seems shaken/more quiet than normal. Odd. He goes for the CLAP wagon. He mentions midway’s ISO looks like crap

Midway OMGUSes BM’s comment

BM has a pretty huge reaction to midway (94) + (104)

BM sort of reminds me of his town game, but he’s picking on midway which doesn’t impress me. I’ve seen scum BM tunnel and town BM tunnel. We shall see

(85) + (115) Lol Ydrasse is super focused on midway and midway being scum early. I think this would suggest midway is town, I dont think scum!Ydrasse kicks off the game with bussing her partner. I think it’s vastly more likely she went after midway because she isn’t terribly confident and midway tends to sound scummy so he was a decent target.

120 - Ydrasse seems to be coming up with reasons for midway being town now. A weird progression. She was like “Let’s find midways partner” -> “I dont really SR you midway” -> “Hm he seems different from when he was scum”.

Does she think midway is going to come under heat, so she’s making herself look better for it by calling he’s town early?

124 - midway assumes there’s 2 scum

Haha BM won’t use his emojis until he takes out some scum. Was he responsible for taking out Ydrasse? Yet to be seen

130 - BM calls out Ydrasse for something

(136) Classic BM tunnel on midway. I wonder, does town BM feel the need to go hard this game in order to make something up to himself? Scum BM might go mellow and be like “yah my reads bad”.

BM turns on a dime onto Nosferatu for idk reasons in 137

147 is a decent explanation for the Nosferatu vote by BM. Decent as in it looks kind of like he believes it

BM goes on to call Nosferatu classic lurker scum

Midway thinks BM doesnt genuinely believe in the push, it seems dumb

Tons of BM stuff everywhere i dont want to read. Can I townbin him without thinking about it? Maybe. I am not terribly familiar with what his scumgame looks like.

CLAP admits to skipping BM’s stuff but points out one post he liked (I also did the same to both)

Ready2rock scumreads BM and votes him for being inconsistent. While R2R may be correct I do not know if that makes BM scum. He also dislikes Nosferatus entrance which looks bad in hindsight. Doesnt explain why other than “too combative”

My slot didnt like r2r’s reentrance much, neither did IV

It seems generally consensus that BM is lean town. IV and CLAP agree

CLAP sheeps onto Nosferatu

Midway agrees that R2R’s BM vote was alright, the Nosferatu shade was scummy. Doesnt vote.

(197) midway hits Ydrasse with the trip question marks. Bro

198 - CLAP is borderline openwolfing with saying he’ll lurk n shit

199 - Mafia Goon dislikes ready to rock as well

201 - Midway wonders if Mafia Goon is a mafia traitor open wolfing. I actually like this thought, seems like it comes from a good place since there’s traitor speculation and mafia goon does make sense for this. Although he may be missing the account name joke

My slot seems to find IV’s sheep onto Rd2 important for associations

216 - Midway takes the first step against Ydrasse. This and his trip ??? post earlier gives him strong town equity

219 - Ydrasse sheeps onto the ready2rock wagon. Distancing or not?

220/221 - Readyrock walls here. Seems to have an elaborate explanation for the nosferatu read. Tbh im not reading deep enough but it looks okay

222 - Mafia Goon likes it and swaps onto that Ydrasse wagon

226 - My slot votes for ready2rock rather than Ydrasse. FoSes Mafia Goon. This is probably not reflecting well on me

235 - Ydrasse leaves the ready2rock wagon.

238 - Midway doubles down on Ydrasse in this post. I would be surprised if he’s scum.

239 - Midway is not feeling the r2r wagon. So he isn’t setting himself up for a swap down the line thats for sure

260 - IV switches to Ydrasse

261 - CLAP is lost

265 / 266 - BM reenters and promptly gets the fuck out LOL

268 - Ydrasse votes Dunnstral

-shes bounced between voting for midway, ready2rock, and Dunnstral so far]


271 - CLAP joins Blair on ready2rock

273 - BM is offended that Ydrasse suggests his push is dumb

VC 1.7

Ydrasse (3): midwaybear, innocentvillager, Nosferatu
ready2rock (2): Blair, CantLynchAPuppy
Nosferatu (1): Battle Mage
midwaybear (1): Dunnstral
Battle Mage (1): ready2rock
Blair (1): Mafia Goon
Dunnstral (1): Ydrasse

278 - BM posts his reads

Scumpool
CantLynchAPuppy (?)
Dunnstral (Town)
Ydrasse (Scum)
Nosferatu** (Town)

Townpool
Midwaybear (probably town)
Ready2rock (lean town ?)
Innocentvillager (Town)
Mafia Goon (Town)

Wildcard
Blair (Town)

294 - Ready2rock votes Blair for being inconsistent around Dunn

308 IV thinks that BM, Mafia, Blair, and midway are prob town. Not sure about r2r or CLAP. Votes Dunn

315 - CLAP continues to note BM is town. Thinks Dunn is scum.

My slot was pretty sure Dunn was scum. Mafia Goon is not havin it. Who will?

347 - midway says “We going Dunn today?”

349 - r2r is feeling better about a launch of Dunn today

352 - Ydrasse is feeling better about r2r. She uses the same wording as him in 349, actually.

360 - R2r votes Dunn and is hopeful it’s a scum slot, at least finds Dunn unhelpful

364 - IV votes Ydrasee, cites Dunn as easy miselim

369 - CLAP sheeps IV onto Ydrasse vote

373 - R2r has Ydrasse as slight town for now, asks for case on her

My slot finds Dunn to be caught scum…

Ydrasse switches to mafia goon

Mafia Goon adds his vote to Ydrasse with nice nice reasoning

386 - Midway is fine with Ydrasse, but also doesn’t get the Dunn townreads

!! YDRASSE CLAIMS 2-SHOT COP !!

408 - CLAP switches to Dunn, says he was going to switch anyway without even seeing the claim

410 - CLAP gets swayed off Dunn into midway because Dunn says he would have hammered

418 - BM simplifies it to choosing between claimed VT or claimed cop. He says he buys the cop claim in absence of a cc and votes Dunn.

423 - Midway says to stick with Dunn because he doesnt want to narrow the PR pool any more

!! IV COUNTER CLAIMS YDRASSE !!


431 - Midway says IV is lowkey scummy for not specifying the role? Lol. He votes Ydrasses anyway though. Feel like scum midway probably doesn’t say that

442 - BM, after waiting for clarification from IV that his role is strong, then votes Ydrasse

447 - BM says “This could be a quick win!” hmm

454 - Midway says “Ydrasse will be the first scum I caught and successfully wagoned. I hope.”

Two things: That’s a kind of weird level of confidence. HOWEVER. I would find it strange for scum midway to say this. So I’m unsure, leaning town on it.

457 - My slot retracts intent to hammer on Ydrasse SMH

I actually think this might be too much for my slot to be scum with Ydrasse. Like if I were scum, my partner is caught and WILL die in the next two days. Get some credit off it. Dont try to save her

477 - R2r is leaning towards Ydrasse

480 - CLAP agrees with Blair on retracting intent?! And then suggests Midway instead of Dunn

BM does research on the claim and determined normals with a gunsmith don’t have a cop

497 - R2r comes to his conclusion of voting Ydrasse

!! YDRASSE SCUMFLIP !!

Midway obviously comes off quite nice.

506 - CLAP doesn’t think it’s blair/dunn

Blair pushes Dunn, BM votes Nosferatu, Mafi votes redrock

534 - Redrock questions Blair. Blair I think is an obvious miselim for scum today, wonder who pushes her

575 - Redrock reads

Town Read
Midway
Mafi
BM
Puppy
Nosferatu
Dunn
Blair
Scum Read

The bottom 3 are town..

591 - Rdr goes onto Nosferatu which is sort of eh

Nosferatu is fuckin convinced BM is scum and I havent read any of it

598 - Puppy suggests a midway/clap/dunn townblock. Would probably win the game. Like that he includes himself

623 - CLAP’s explicit townread of Blair interests me. I’m not sure if it’s a scum maneuver to defend her or a town one to not just go for her when it’d probably not be super hard

Midway and CLAP vote for r2r

631 - Nosferatu points out a bunch of inconsistencies with BM, he’s probably right, although I dont necessarily make BM scum for it

Ready2rock has decent big reads posts but his bottom three is all town, bottom four is town if CLAP is town

!! KERSET = BM !!

661 - Kerset reads

CantLynchAPuppy
Blair
Mafia Goon
ready2rock
Nosferatu
midwaybear
Dunnstral

Why is midway so low?

Everyone is generally fine with voting Dunn but its slow AF. Kerset is a big proponent of the Dunn wagon

Mafia Goon goes for redrock instead

CLAP hammers Dunn

!! DUNN, MAFIA, NOSFERATU ARE OUT !!

OH lol redrock is the vig.

Kerset/bm claims backup BP which I didnt know was a thing

Town

Ready2rock
midwaybear
-
CLAP
Kerset

Not Town

I will be considering reversing CLAP and Kerset because i have not really thought about the claims too much yet.

So my first inclinations are.. hm.. either CLAP is scum and the kill on Nosferatu was more or less framing BM (since he's townreading Blair, Blair was never the miselim he's going for here). In fact, Blair probably was already going to be elimed on her own, so may as well make BM look worse as well

BM/Kerset is just scum and the kill is much more straightforward. Nosferatu was completely tunneled on them.

Ready2rock and Midway do not appear to be scum to me.

The strongest thing I'm feeling right now is either Kerset or CLAP are scum. They both share this high townread on my slot. Why? I thought midway was the towniest. I see CLAP has midway second town, but Kerset says midway is highest likelihood scum.

I think that one of the mafia members is midway. He lacks of commitment to his own leads. Technically he picked Ydrasse to be his target but his whole agenda was only about pursuing dunn at the time and lynching him. Ydr is only mentioned in terms of receiving credit for his eventual flip.

What do you think of midway-Ydrasse's interactions?

this is where im thinking right now

scum > kerset > r2r > midway > blair

Awesome. Which shot was yours?

Kerset > Blair > midway

Avengers assemble!!!!??!! !!!

Why do/did you have Blair as your strongest town? Apologies if im missing it

[Fidget]

I'm not sure if a town BP backup makes sense (scum dies so town gets extra power? What?). Which is why it could be a red herring or a scum lie. But it's not totally implausible either

Yup this makes no fuckin sense. Scum loses a player in an 8v2, and gets extra punished for it by a town PR inheriting a power?

Unless, maybe we're dealing with a traitor..? That would make it 7v3 and kind of shitty for town if we only got the 2 PRs. Let's say Kerset is town and there's a BP traitor

Town Gunsmith
Town One-shot Vigilante
Town Backup Bulletproof
Townie
Townie
Townie
Townie

Mafia One-shot Bulletproof Traitor
Mafia Goon
Mafia Goon

The gunsmith still kind of sucks. He has a false innocent result and a false guilty.

I can see two scenarios:

Kerset is a scum power role (doesnt have to be bulletproof) and this is his fakeclaim gambit in order to push a false traitor narrative. He could have thought of this over the night phase.

Kerset is a town backup bulletproof, and we're dealing with a traitor/goon combo? It still feels far-fetched to me. If redrock and midway are town, I can't even fit two scum in. Unless midwaybear's bus on Ydrasse was planned out in some way?

[Fidget]

I'm takin a nap. There will be plenty of time to seek out the truth tomorrow.

[Kerset]

You sound like you would suspect people for having different opinion then you.