Open 791 | Forest Fire | Game Over

[Dannflor]

VOTECOUNT 2.0

exile

[8] Not Voting :

Farren, Ydrasse, Isis, Bell, Dunnstral, GuiltyLion, tea leaves, Morning Tweet

With 8 alive, it takes 5 votes to exile.

The Day 2 deadline is in: (expired on 2020-09-05 23:27:24)

[Bell]

Sorry Gamma.

[Bell]

VOTE: MorningTweet

[Dunnstral]

What are they gonna do,

prime me

?

[Farren]

tea leaves: we should talk.

[Morning Tweet]

I like really strongly want to believe that GuiltyLion is about to claim Firefighter here so I don't really want to think about the game as much till that's confirmed/denied

Dunnstral's post looks like how he'd structure a fakeclaim. But I could be wrong; if you're confirmed inno you kind of can devilmaycare if you want to

LET'S GO GUILTY COME ON !!!!! you went to firefighter school didn't you ???

Not that I wont accept Dunn as our saviour and all but like, it'd make the game a lot easier and

me a lot less incorrect

So confusing.

My Ydrasse townread and Dunn scumlean would be validated if GL counter-claims firefighter, making me a lot less incorrect

@MT: No, I got that. I just don't know how you could be anything other than neutral on Dunn. I don't disagree on the votes there (besides it being unfortunate he was a PR). Since you have to push there to solve. It's just weird you could heavy scum lean there.

Bell, why do you characterize my read on Dunn as a "heavy scum lean" here? It seems 'weird' possibly because you exaggerated it. Does this play into your suspicions of me?

Isis still feel very good about being town. recently I liked the way she read Dunn even after 90% of the thread said they weren't firefighter. It's like the opposite of that argument people were using on Ydrasse for being "too accepting too soon"

Spoiler: these posts

Dunn do you realize that when you claimed FF the mechanical probability you were scum became 67%?

I was saying to think about why posting cases on GL before CC is complete is bad.

it is bad because with town!Dunn and scum!GL GL gets advanced notice and can claim FF so that we stump Dunn. While if you wait for GL to claim VT and go for endgame, right after he claims VT you can say "btw you're not endgaming once I believe Dunn to be scum you're the one I hate" and he can't switch to counterclaiming FF

I'm naturally much more doubtful Dunnstral is scum the more he continues to engage the thread
But previously it was the high base probability plus the way he said hi.
I'm bemused that he didn't say "it wasn't an apology" or "I apologize sometimes", he just said I'm reachy

I also continue to soulread Ydrasse being town

I cannot decide whether Guilty's approach to Gamma was genuine or not

personally I'm struggling with Gamma turning on Bell for voting him like that and suggesting Ydrasse/Bell team, that feels like he was more interested in discrediting Bell's vote than operating from genuine reads

but that could come from frustrated town, he backed down on it pretty quickly, idk if that's town or scum realizing they made a claim they can't realistically defend

on one hand i had a similar reaction cause town has frustrated backlash and i get that, but also I guess he didn't really take a stance on it. I didn't take a hard stance either, but i would generally say it's easier to hedge as scum than to not

There are a couple things I want to townread of Guilty's but I'm not sure if they're stupid reasons. I like his "fuck it" hammer when combined with him not really taking too much of a stance on Gamma

But he did point out some inconsistencies Gamma had in 1229/1232 so he did kind of build up to it. What I'm getting at is that I feel scum is more likely to feel like they need a documented progression on someone before voting them end of day, whereas town just goes with what's in their head. I want to say Guilty's hammer leans towards the "screw it" side and comes off as townier to me

I have an extra stupid theory on Guilty as well that I almost didn't share but I may as well because it's affecting my read:

no, that team would make no sense?? I also addressed this directly in an earlier post:

If Dunn flips scum she's definitely town though

you're better than this, surely?

I feel like this was a bit mean if Guilty knows Ydrasse is town, but a lot more justifiable if he is town doubting Ydrasse's alignment

yea so im going to bed I'm sorry if none of this is helpful I contained it to one post so I dont accidentally spam the thread with nonsense reads

[Bell]

By heavy scum lean, I merely mean you voted hI’m up to claim. Which I consider to be a serious vote.
As for why, I think it’s a combination of metaing you., realizing that effort is a thing you do as both alignments and thinking about your positioning on both wagons(or lack thereof) and your reflected attitudes there.

[Bell]

I don’t really think guiltylion is scum based on how he interacted with Gamma as he wagoned him.
I can see Farren. But I think you’re most likely scum out of the two of you.

[Farren]

on one hand i had a similar reaction cause town has frustrated backlash and i get that, but also I guess he didn't really take a stance on it. I didn't take a hard stance either, but i would generally say it's easier to hedge as scum than to not

Would you describe yourself as hedging?

[Bell]

Also, I feel the question you lodged at me was more to look for cracks than a genuine attempt to read me.
But we’ll see. I don’t think it will be particularly easy to convince other players to vote you.
And you know, i’m Going to think about this one for awhile.

[Isis]

I wonder if Tweet will flip scum this game just because she's so moonlogicky. But I don't think it's the kind of theory that's reasonable to test with hachets

[Isis]

Tweet why did you discount a GL Ydrasse team?

[Morning Tweet]

Tweet why did you discount a GL Ydrasse team?

do i ever mention their associations? i havent even barely done associations for anyone yet i dont think

Lemme see, GL has Ydrasse as bottom scumread, votes Ydrasse after Dunn wagon falls apart.. wasnt tea leaves a viable counter wagon for most of EoD?

GL pushed clidd but 180d on tea leaves entrance over to Ydrasse

idk unless Guilty somehow knew the Ydrasse stuff would fall apart it seemed like he was ready to kill her

He also didnt accept my meta case on Ydrasse and gave me a bunch of counterpoints to think about

is that a scumteam you're considering? I'm thinking more about players outside of isis/ydrasse/gl

[Morning Tweet]

I wonder if Tweet will flip scum this game just because she's so moonlogicky. But I don't think it's the kind of theory that's reasonable to test with hachets

Its less scum indictative more "Morning is a mess" indictative

[Morning Tweet]

Also, I feel the question you lodged at me was more to look for cracks than a genuine attempt to read me.
But we’ll see. I don’t think it will be particularly easy to convince other players to vote you.
And you know, i’m Going to think about this one for awhile.

I can see why you think that but you are in the list of names im tossing around in my head to vote and it keeps getting shorter. I have a tendency to over suspect pushes on me but I still wanted to ask about it

[Morning Tweet]

on one hand i had a similar reaction cause town has frustrated backlash and i get that, but also I guess he didn't really take a stance on it. I didn't take a hard stance either, but i would generally say it's easier to hedge as scum than to not

Would you describe yourself as hedging?

That's what im saying there yes. I think what I did was generally something scum can do and GL also did it. Not stating a definite opinion is generally easier to than not

By heavy scum lean, I merely mean you voted hI’m up to claim. Which I consider to be a serious vote.
As for why, I think it’s a combination of metaing you., realizing that effort is a thing you do as both alignments and thinking about your positioning on both wagons(or lack thereof) and your reflected attitudes there.

Hm, okay.

I usually vote the shinest looking wagon that is not within my townreads, I would vote true nulls if it were the best thing on the table just to protect my townreads. In Dunns case though I was hoping he'd be scum but I didnt have more than a few smaller reasons since he didnt have hardly any content

Sadly yeah to the effort thing. It cuts into my town game really badly sometimes. My positioning on both wagons and reflected attitudes..... you can have that scumread till further notice because I myself dont know exactly what those were

[GuiltyLion]

Dunn wagon at L-1:

Dunnstral - 4 (Morning Tweet, GuiltyLion, tea leaves, Ydrasse)
Unofficial, blame me for errors.

Gamma wagon:

VOTECOUNT 1.FINAL

Mountains

[5] Gamma Emerald :

Dunnstral, Bell, tea leaves, Isis, GuiltyLion

tea leaves is on both and was a counter wagon to both - is anybody hard townreading them?

[GuiltyLion]

VOTE: tea leaves

@Farren I wanna know where your reads are at and if you're willing to vote here

[Morning Tweet]

I *think* that's what Farren was getting at w/ the "we should talk" post

[Morning Tweet]

Mm VCA says yes, but also, those two were at the bottom of tea leaves' reads so I suppose it only naturally follows they would be on both wagons

Being the counter wagon consistently is interesting to me though I am not yet sure if it's damning

Farren, what do you think about Ydrasse now? I see that you took her getting chopped down so much for granted that you moved your vote to pressure tea leaves on the basis that they were getting nervous in response to Ydrasse's pressure.

that does leave me somewhat confused on where you stand on her

[Morning Tweet]

My snap negative reaction to Bell pushing me is waning. I forgot to read the bottom of page 51 up til now somehow so I have a more complete sense of his progression on me

He's got like a combination of pretty believable looking solving and also parts where his reads seem to shift wildly (basically the Gamma section). I also want to say his pushing on me is because he thinks I have a good chance of being scum as opposed to trying to look good for it. Maybe I don't have a good reason to believe that yet but it's what I'm thinking

Also, I feel the question you lodged at me was more to look for cracks than a genuine attempt to read me.
But we’ll see. I don’t think it will be particularly easy to convince other players to vote you.
And you know, i’m Going to think about this one for awhile.

We'll see!

Let's put it at..

Isis
-
Ydrasse, Bell,
tea leaves (pending review) <- probably getting tricked by one of these 3
-
GuiltyLion, Farren <- probably one scum

I'm beginning to see why tea leaves suggested GL/Farren the other day. If im not screwing up which I definitely am but still, it'd mean 1-2 of them is scum. Both I highly doubt

VOTE: Farren

[tea leaves]

GuiltyLion pushing me for weak VCA is pretty par for the course for what I expected scum!him to do here. As Morning mentioned, it's pretty easy to tell I'm on both wagons because it naturally follows from my earlier reads.

VOTE: GuiltyLion

What did you want to talk about, Farren?

[Bell]

Oh, I thought you ignored me lol. That really triggered my scumdar.

[Farren]

VOTE: tea leaves

@Farren I wanna know where your reads are at and if you're willing to vote here

Bell: strongest townread.
Isis: faded a bit since D1. Still on the town side of things, but I'm watching her. I think I need to take a look at her meta at some point, see if I can spot any differences between scum|her and Town|her.
Ydrasse: eh. I'd say mixed still? I'm still boggling about the wagon shifting to Gamma, but I don't think Ydrasse played much of a part in that.
MT: Same general tier as Ydrasse, but trending downwards.
Guilty: improved. I'd say leaning town.
tea leaves: scummy, but I'm worried about possible tunneling here.

In order from Town to scum:

Bell >> Isis | Guilty > Ydrasse | Morning Tweet > tea leaves.

If I had to vote now, I'd be voting tea leaves again - nothing about yesterday made me feel any better there. But I want to talk first.

I also need to do some re-reading in general. I'm feeling lost and adrift, and I don't know why.

PEdit: Ah, good timing. To start with: did you do anything with regards to the game during N1?

[Farren]

Also, if scum|GuiltyLion goes after you with VCA, what would you expect Town|GuiltyLion to do?