Micro 966 - DDD: DD? [game over!]

[Alisae]

And how does forming a townread on the person you are voting not qualify for what you’re saying

[Grumpy Cat]

Like a scumping from somewhere

This is speaking from my own experience.

Are you saying town!you would unvote a RVS vote as soon as the target feels like town, even if you don't know where else to move it? It's not uncommon at all to leave it there for until you do

[Alisae]

Yes I would move my vote to Not Voting

[Grumpy Cat]

Okay, but it's playstyle choice and a fair amount of players wouldn't. You think Dogem is scummy for it?

[Alisae]

I think its strange and the explanation he’s given for it is strange.
I also think his primary focus is not scumhunting given at the start of this day, he votes me for basically being a liability and is trying to justify mislynching me with EVs and saying I’m a liability.

Why are you defending leaving an RVS vote on someone you townread? You may see it as common but at the end of the day, it is still bad play.

[Donempire]

Wait, i realised mislynching today isnt even bad and lynching scum doesnt benefit us
Why dont we off the one that would cause problems later then because of this shit lolhammer?

You don't think it would be beneficial to have associative tells lined up for tomorrow?

I not suggesting a zero sum deal. If we lynch alisae today, we lose a loose end tomorrow, as she will always have the doubt of lolhammer hanging over her head. If shes town, thats obviously detrimental. If shes scum, there will be devils advocates and really no way to be sure either.

dude it was an accident wtf?

Okay? And that means you cant have some motivation behind lolhammering somehow?

I dont see how we reach upon a conclusion on you. You either carry this lolhammerer mark into d3 or you die today and at least we can associate. I already explained my reasoning in the post you quoted.

[Donempire]

I think its strange and the explanation he’s given for it is strange.
I also think his primary focus is not scumhunting given at the start of this day, he votes me for basically being a liability and is trying to justify mislynching me with EVs and saying I’m a liability.

Why are you defending leaving an RVS vote on someone you townread? You may see it as common but at the end of the day, it is still bad play.

But lolhammering isnt bad play apparently

Well me leaving my vote on him was an accident then

[Ydrasse]

i’m sorry ico i didn’t realize you were that close to hammer...

i’ll be around after work to post real things here

[Donempire]

I'm literally the first vote alisae, im the most sus person on that wagon? For an rvs vote and a hammer that then happens while im asleep? Defend your hammer, dont try to paint me as scum instead, it only makes you seem worse. So far the only reasoning you gave was "it was an accident", and if so dont you check VCs?

[Alisae]

Wait, i realised mislynching today isnt even bad and lynching scum doesnt benefit us
Why dont we off the one that would cause problems later then because of this shit lolhammer?

You don't think it would be beneficial to have associative tells lined up for tomorrow?

I not suggesting a zero sum deal. If we lynch alisae today, we lose a loose end tomorrow, as she will always have the doubt of lolhammer hanging over her head. If shes town, thats obviously detrimental. If shes scum, there will be devils advocates and really no way to be sure either.

dude it was an accident wtf?

Okay? And that means you cant have some motivation behind lolhammering somehow?

I dont see how we reach upon a conclusion on you. You either carry this lolhammerer mark into d3 or you die today and at least we can associate. I already explained my reasoning in the post you quoted.

Or you can realize that it was an accident, and any alignment can place that vote at that time and think they would not hammer Icon, and move on.

[Alisae]

I'm literally the first vote alisae, im the most sus person on that wagon? For an rvs vote and a hammer that then happens while im asleep? Defend your hammer, dont try to paint me as scum instead, it only makes you seem worse. So far the only reasoning you gave was "it was an accident", and if so dont you check VCs?

I didn’t check VCs because there weren’t any VCs at the time

[Donempire]

wait, no other way around. whatever, you know what I mean

I actually dont, my math sucks

Alright, not sure we're thinking the same thing, so just to clarify:

If we mislynch today:
Tomorrow is a %40 chance we lynch scum. Game ends there.

If we lynch scum today:
Tomorrow is a %20 chance we lynch scum, if we miss that we have a %33 chance. 1/5 + 1/3 which is 8/15, around %50(?) So lynching scum today would be beneficial, but theres also todays chance of lynching scum, which is 2/7 which you have to multiply this by. Its overly mathy, but my point is we dont lose out on anything if we mislynch today. We can make associations, just like we can with a scum flip, but i've seen that in experience wagons on town lead to more information. Either way, you're right, i guess it doesnt make that much of a difference.

[Grumpy Cat]

I have a lucky dice for finding town (it's never failed me). Whoever it lands on in the playerlist is legitimately conftown to me

Spoiler:

Iconeum
Hopkirk
Dongempire
Ydrasse
Alisae
Piergeiron the Paladinson
Grumpy Cat
Flopz
WindowsXP

Ico it is

Okay, I have to come clean about something. I lied and actually have TWO lucky dice (they've never failed me). The other one is for finding scum. Here we go:

Spoiler:

Iconeum
Hopkirk
Dongempire
Alisae
Piergeiron the Paladinson
Ydrasse
Grumpy Cat
Flopz
WindowsXP

Ydrasse lockscum

VOTE: grumpy cat

ur too dangerous for ur own good

flip

Iconeum

has been executed Day 1. He was a

Vanilla Townie

.

The sun sets, it is now Night 1. Sunrise in

(expired on 2020-09-11 12:35:00)

.

HMMMMMMMM

[Alisae]

I'm literally the first vote alisae, im the most sus person on that wagon? For an rvs vote and a hammer that then happens while im asleep? Defend your hammer, dont try to paint me as scum instead, it only makes you seem worse. So far the only reasoning you gave was "it was an accident", and if so dont you check VCs?

You seem the most sus person on that wagon because you enabled that wagon to reach 5 votes when you could have easily made sure that that didn’t happen by unvoting.

And how am I not supposed to see your slot and think that what you’re doing is strange? Not only did you enable that wagon to reach 5 votes, but you’re also coming into the day phase trying to label me as a liability and saying why its better to mislynch then it is to lynch scum. Like this is really strange because it feels like you’re not trying to find scum. Do you have any other suspects or am I your only suspect?

I voted Icon because I scumread him and he was acting weird in regards to Windows and I liked Windows the most between their discussion with Icon. Thats why I voted Icon and I didn’t realize I hammered until I woke up and saw that I hammered. I’m sorry. I fucked up.

[Alisae]

Btw what do we think of the Hopkirk kill?

[Donempire]

Hmm.

My votes sticky, but you still have my support on that wagon. I trust your dice if you say its good.

[Donempire]

Wait, i realised mislynching today isnt even bad and lynching scum doesnt benefit us
Why dont we off the one that would cause problems later then because of this shit lolhammer?

You don't think it would be beneficial to have associative tells lined up for tomorrow?

I not suggesting a zero sum deal. If we lynch alisae today, we lose a loose end tomorrow, as she will always have the doubt of lolhammer hanging over her head. If shes town, thats obviously detrimental. If shes scum, there will be devils advocates and really no way to be sure either.

dude it was an accident wtf?

Okay? And that means you cant have some motivation behind lolhammering somehow?

I dont see how we reach upon a conclusion on you. You either carry this lolhammerer mark into d3 or you die today and at least we can associate. I already explained my reasoning in the post you quoted.

Or you can realize that it was an accident, and any alignment can place that vote at that time and think they would not hammer Icon, and move on.

Except that allows scum!you to get away easily with mishammering a town. Why do you want me to risk that over explaining yourself and clearing your name?

[Grumpy Cat]

wait, no other way around. whatever, you know what I mean

I actually dont, my math sucks

Alright, not sure we're thinking the same thing, so just to clarify:

If we mislynch today:
Tomorrow is a %40 chance we lynch scum. Game ends there.

If we lynch scum today:
Tomorrow is a %20 chance we lynch scum, if we miss that we have a %33 chance. 1/5 + 1/3 which is 8/15, around %50(?) So lynching scum today would be beneficial, but theres also todays chance of lynching scum, which is 2/7 which you have to multiply this by. Its overly mathy, but my point is we dont lose out on anything if we mislynch today. We can make associations, just like we can with a scum flip, but i've seen that in experience wagons on town lead to more information. Either way, you're right, i guess it doesnt make that much of a difference.

Basically, the important part is that if we launch scum today, we have a 46.7% chance of winning overall.
If we launch town today, we have a 40% chance of winning.

Launching scum is slightly preferable, but there is utility in launching launchbait if we think they'd be a liabilty in LyLo, since we can flip town!them with small consequence. I can't see launchbait this game though (yet).

[Donempire]

I'm literally the first vote alisae, im the most sus person on that wagon? For an rvs vote and a hammer that then happens while im asleep? Defend your hammer, dont try to paint me as scum instead, it only makes you seem worse. So far the only reasoning you gave was "it was an accident", and if so dont you check VCs?

I didn’t check VCs because there weren’t any VCs at the time

Checked, and you're right. Last vc was 4 pages ago. I still dont see why you dont check previous vcs before voting someone.

[Donempire]

wait, no other way around. whatever, you know what I mean

I actually dont, my math sucks

Alright, not sure we're thinking the same thing, so just to clarify:

If we mislynch today:
Tomorrow is a %40 chance we lynch scum. Game ends there.

If we lynch scum today:
Tomorrow is a %20 chance we lynch scum, if we miss that we have a %33 chance. 1/5 + 1/3 which is 8/15, around %50(?) So lynching scum today would be beneficial, but theres also todays chance of lynching scum, which is 2/7 which you have to multiply this by. Its overly mathy, but my point is we dont lose out on anything if we mislynch today. We can make associations, just like we can with a scum flip, but i've seen that in experience wagons on town lead to more information. Either way, you're right, i guess it doesnt make that much of a difference.

Basically, the important part is that if we launch scum today, we have a 46.7% chance of winning overall.
If we launch town today, we have a 40% chance of winning.

Launching scum is slightly preferable, but there is utility in launching launchbait if we think they'd be a liabilty in LyLo, since we can flip town!them with small consequence. I can't see launchbait this game though (yet).

Thats what im thinking. After the day runs it course lynching alisae would prevent us from mislynching e in case e is town, and if es scum thats another headache dealt with. This no consequence game is why im pretty fond of pushing this wagon, as we seemingly cant lose with this.

[Grumpy Cat]

Btw what do we think of the Hopkirk kill?

Flopz is town unless his scum partner really dictatored the kill. Flopz/I never kill Hop night 1 here, since we joined this game together for the lols.

I'll look through this ISO to see how strong his scumreads were. 1 min

[Alisae]

Wait, i realised mislynching today isnt even bad and lynching scum doesnt benefit us
Why dont we off the one that would cause problems later then because of this shit lolhammer?

You don't think it would be beneficial to have associative tells lined up for tomorrow?

I not suggesting a zero sum deal. If we lynch alisae today, we lose a loose end tomorrow, as she will always have the doubt of lolhammer hanging over her head. If shes town, thats obviously detrimental. If shes scum, there will be devils advocates and really no way to be sure either.

dude it was an accident wtf?

Okay? And that means you cant have some motivation behind lolhammering somehow?

I dont see how we reach upon a conclusion on you. You either carry this lolhammerer mark into d3 or you die today and at least we can associate. I already explained my reasoning in the post you quoted.

Or you can realize that it was an accident, and any alignment can place that vote at that time and think they would not hammer Icon, and move on.

Except that allows scum!you to get away easily with mishammering a town. Why do you want me to risk that over explaining yourself and clearing your name?

because
A. I’ve been trying to find scum all game
B. If you flip me today and I flip town, you bring the game into F5 which is more favorable for scum because no one has that much info to go off of considering how quickly D1 ended. You need to spend this day trying to find scum and get more information to work off of. If you don’t do that and lynch me because you think I’m a liability, then it doesn’t matter if you lynch scum tomorrow, how are you going to do that in F5 when its significantly harder to due to the lack of information.

[Grumpy Cat]

He didn't really have any confident scumreads. I think he just died because he was solving and scary.

[Alisae]

I'm literally the first vote alisae, im the most sus person on that wagon? For an rvs vote and a hammer that then happens while im asleep? Defend your hammer, dont try to paint me as scum instead, it only makes you seem worse. So far the only reasoning you gave was "it was an accident", and if so dont you check VCs?

I didn’t check VCs because there weren’t any VCs at the time

Checked, and you're right. Last vc was 4 pages ago. I still dont see why you dont check previous vcs before voting someone.

Because in my mind I thought only Windows and Ydrasse were voting them and that I was applying pressure onto Icon. Its the same reason why those types of hammers happen in the first place.

[Alisae]

He didn't really have any confident scumreads. I think he just died because he was solving and scary.

What do you make of his Paladin vote?