Open 791 | Forest Fire | Game Over

[Morning Tweet]

As a refresher

Spoiler: Compilation of GL trying to kill Ydrasse

I don't like that Ydrasse pops in on page 12 and doesn't really bother to comment about clidd at all

idk I like tea leaves entrance, especially the point about Isis reaction to it being genuine - I had some reservations about Menalque/Isis slot but I think that read on it makes sense

VOTE: Ydrasse
I don't feel she's actually trying to solve

@Isis - yes she did, she readily gave a read on MT when prompted

GL I'm not finding where ydrasse talked about her read, is the pop-in being complained about several pages ago?

page 12, posts 283 and 285

i think this is probably a self-centered view regarding guiltylion because he voted me, but it feels as if he's hyperfocused on a few small things that are at odds with being as cognizant of the game state as he is?

like, i guess it seems like a macro assessment of things (that i agreed with, no one pushing anything with vengeance) that zooms in onto me for reasons that don't hold much weight fmpov (the vote and me not trying to find the baddies) which seems... contradictory? in how to view the game as a whole.

how am I not being cognizant of the game state?

like from my view - I'm re-evaluating clidd slot and pressuring a slot that has been voting him the whole game yet not seemingly updating that read based on the content he's given. That leads me to decide to vote/pressure you. Why can you not imagine this coming from a town!GL perspective?

will not be around to Properly talk/etc but @tea, what about guilty feels off to you? i remember your slot's predecessor saying the exact same thing and i'm wondering if you can verbalize it a bit better?

guys

why does Ydrasse ask this to someone about someone she claims to be scumreading/voting?

am I the only one seeing this?

can you cite the games you looked at? I've played with Ydrasse twice now (once where she was scum and once where she was town) and she feels completely different than both games.

Can you elaborate on the differences here? Between Town/Scum/Here|Ydrasse?

I think the main thing standing out to me is that in both of our Newbie games together, Ydrasse was more matter of fact, I want to say "formal" but it's not quite that, but just like, direct and to the point. Here's a sample post:

Ydrasse, I don’t like you.

You read as null to me. You read as null to everyone despite consistently posting. You don’t dominate the conversation but you do participate. Nothing you say or do specifically stands out. You’re good at keeping attention away from yourself by making non-contentious statements.

If this were a non-normal game, I’d think you were a Serial Killer or Survivor.

I want to know what is going on here.

this is the second time that you've referred to me as deflecting attention away from myself, the first being in 46. is there any post(s) in particular that have made you feel this way? because i would say that while i am perhaps non-contentious in the sense i am not aggressive about my pushes, i've been making the efforts to do so; mujie, while being closer to the start of the game being one and a vote on pearofclubs being another.

it might just be that this is my playstyle, and that i'm not a particularly Loud voice at times. i offer my input where i feel it works, push where i need to, blah blah. i'm not really worried about changing it up for the sake of being more ~memorable though.

midway is right though that it's a bit of a sweeping statement to say i'm null to everyone. i'm generally in the lower rungs of town reads i'd say which... is pretty average to how i'm considered in all the games i've played so far.

similarly, here's one from her scum game

i don't think that wagoning the slot is inherently a bad idea just because someone's gonna replace into it.

however, my poe still includes italiano as a potential solve; rereading his iso (b/c of their self-vote from yesterday), his only mention of pii before they started adding pii into their solve was 81 where they townread them. and then they come back to that slot in 188 with a scumread.

i think that what pinged me about this was that it came after italiano self-voting. while i think that frustration is within a vacuum nai, that he had pressure on him and then turned to a self-vote after feels very ate-y to me. the vibe i got was that it was a bit dramatic (that being "i've tried to no avail.") before it was being brushed off and he replaced his vote on his scumread and jumped back in. it feels as if the pii scumread of convenience because italiano doesn't interact with the content of the few posts themselves.

supporting the idea that italiano could theoretically do this as scum is 204, in which he says he's been in wolf games before this and has done bold moves which to me reads as a dissonance between something i pointed out in 79 and 91, where he asserts that he is a new player to this sort of stuff. i think that while there is not a 1:1 between all versions of mafia and italiano is new to this format, i feel in particular 91 feels a bit wifomy having 204 to read now.

that being said, i could see pii as scum despite this, though without more to judge i don't think i'm sold entirely on the idea. it's possible that italiano was frustrated, if they are scum with pii, that their partner has been inactive thus far and finds it easier to bus them at this point.

pii's posts were nondescript to me and i don't feel that i can say much more on the slot until someone replaces into it and becomes active.

VOTE: ItalianoVD

as either alignment, it's these kinds of post I expect from Ydrasse, a bunch of references to things going on, several paragraphs with lots of different thoughts and points, and kind of a straightforward approach to arguing. The difference I'm feeling here is that I haven't seen these types of posts from Ydrasse yet really, she's posting more casually and friendly.

It

might

be her just feeling more comfortable on the site and letting more of her personality out, maybe emulating some other players she's seen/read (I kinda feel like she's channeling more of a skitter vibe in this game), but do you have a sense of the difference I'm trying to point to? I know I just lazily grabbed one post from each game but if you do an ISO dive you can see it, there's just a lot more to-the-point content, here it feels like she's more chatty and peppering her posts with exclamation points and faces.

all that said, ISO skimming her here, 523 and 524 are the first few posts where I see more of the style I was seeing in these older games.

Farren - what is your read on Ydrasse, specifically? You're pushing back on my reasons for scumreading her, is that because you townread her?

here, you indicated you were thinking about voting her:

UNVOTE: Morning Tweet
VOTE: Gamma Emerald

I was going to switch to Ydrasse next, but I saw something that I thought had ... a connection, I guess? ... to a part of the gamestate, and I want to see if it develops on its own without me poking at it first.

Gamma, I saw one brief moment where you put yourself out there - and then you withdrew. Got anything else like that?

has the connection you referred to played out, can you explain what that was?

overall I think I'm like here

{Isis, MT}
{tea leaves, Gamma}
{Bell, Farren}
{Dunn, Ydrasse}

Isis I'm not following 600, what's the inconsistency there

because there's more interest in Dunn right now, I pushed Ydrasse for a good ~500 posts and like three different people have her as hardtown

I'd happily go back to Ydrasse in a heartbeat if you want to start that up again

tldr: i think she'd feel pressured to play harder as scum, even if she has less access than normal and feels very comfortable with the playerlist, she'd at least do at least an effort post or two, just a single wall for one of her reads! She'd want to help her arso buddy by trying at least the best she can to not be eliminated

I read and have been chewing on your whole post but I'm quoting the tl;dr for cleanliness sake

I definitely think she's not playing to a tryhard scum meta here, I think you're right that from her past games she's shown a tendency to wall/fight/do more when she feels the game is in danger. and the point about there being no real reason for scum!her to intentionally change up her meta is fair.

I guess my hangup here is I'm not sure a scum!Ydrasse would have felt in danger yet this game - what do you think? Like I agree she's not trying to look like she's scumhunting, but I don't see her actually scumhunting either. Her wagon has grown some legs since Bell replaced in and the last time I caught up

with respect to the L-1 Dunn vote, that was after you posted this whole analysis - wouldn't scum!Ydrasse know that trying hard at that point, especially when dropping an L-1 is going to stand out?

If Dunn flips scum she's definitely town though

no, that team would make no sense?? I also addressed this directly in an earlier post:

If Dunn flips scum she's definitely town though

you're better than this, surely?

I'm not the firefighter

VOTE: Ydrasse

this is on the presumption that dunn is uncc'd + if it is and i'm asleep everyone can strongarm an elim on him through regardless

VOTE: guiltylion

town dunn makes me feel better about tea + that vote a while back. my working brain completely brushed over the fact gl had said that thing about me + dunn. i don't like how he was ready to switch to me at any point were the signs there and then didn't really do much about it when i joined a wagon that he was also on. even if he thinks that we don't make sense together i'd think that someone would be a little more worried about their Strongest (?) scumread hopping on with them.

p-edit: ya that's fine with me

Yeah I kinda feel like this is a bit too accepting of his claim in a way? Like it feels very self-assured that this won’t be rebuked
If GL doesn’t CC I’m inclined to vote out Ydrasse, and if Ydrasse flips scum that probably clears GL because Ydrasse would know if GL was her partner and if they were partners there’d be that chance of a CC

yeah +1 to this

like if Ydrasse knows both Dunn/I are town, then she knows his claim is true
if she were town, maybe Dunn is scum fake claiming and I (potential FF) just hadn't posted yet

i think a better way to put it is tea isn’t as towny as others

why not

VOTE: Ydrasse

literally no content on D1, no content today. there's only reason I'm being wagoned instead of her is because I don't mince words and I've been stepping on toes by actually trying to play the game

I think MT/Bell are town

the gamestate points to TL town, I think. I doubt her partner would have voted with her on Dunn/Gamma wagons, and I think it's suspicious that no one seems interested in voting her today despite her being a leading wagon for most of D1, especially since I didn't push her at all yesterday but I opened with voting her today. That points to scum saving her for a future mis-elimination, especially now if/when I'm chopped

Farren... idk. I don't like him angling to potentially vote me "based off my reaction" to E-1

Isis/Ydrasse has a scum in it, if not both. I think in hindsight Menalque's early game may have been distancing, and I don't think these two have substantially interacted since.

the one oddity about Isis/Ydrasse is both voting TL

but I think Ydrasse's TL vote was a survival vote, she was careful not to actually scum read TL at any point, instead giving that nonsense of "isn't as town as others" in 1178

I don't recall a single read from Ydrasse other than town!MT

i actually think now i'd prefer dunn over tea leaves; my read on tea leaves in that situation kind of rests on the implication that dunn is scum along with tea and i can... feasibly believe that tea believes farren is scum even if i don't think that the examples provided are particularly damning.

i also don't have a reason to really townread dunn in comparison to other people.

VOTE: dunn

[quote="In post 1178, Ydrasse"

]i think a better way to put it is tea isn’t as towny as others

ugh is more of me not knowing if everyone else is seeing more into tea than i am and giving it a sure why not

like

this is how she justified two of her votes yesterday

she gave more reasoning for voting me than anyone else she voted, but I'm town so[/quote]

has nobody come in with a "here's why both wagons are wrong"/"this is scum jumping on [x] wagon" sort of take? I'd expect to see at least one of those if it's TvT

that's also assuming that gl is scum and if not the game's lost anyways so it's moot

2/2 scum in (tea, mt, isis, bell, farren) feels like something i could never solve but that's more of a personal take

as an aside, what is with all the fatalism in this game

"if [x] is scum it's gg, we already lost" type of sentiment is just lazy play and costs games

is the deadline really in 7 hours?

VOTE: Ydrasse

I'm not really all that sure this flips scum anymore though tbh :/

he has a staggering amount of material against Ydrasse -- as early as page 15 up til just before her death. There are (4) noticeable points where GL strays from tunneling Ydrasse, from what I can recall.

1. In RVS he pushed clidd, but dropped off that in favour of Ydrasse around page 15

2. He helped me push Dunn, but he kept Ydrasse on the same tier as Dunn

3. At the start of D2, he started off pushing tea. However, he claims that was just to see who joined it. He did hint pretty hard that is what he was doing]

and 4. Right before Ydrasse died, he had second thoughts because he couldn't think of who her partner would be. He still voted her of course, but I thought it noteworthy

[Farren]

The vote reasoning makes sense in a vacuum; voting for the one potential counter-claimant does not.

Starting a new wagon when she's one of two main alternatives, though - that doesn't seem like scum-oriented thinking, unless the team is exactly her / tea leaves.

[Farren]

UNVOTE: Isis

Need to think about that one for a bit.

[Isis]

Tea leaves, why is tweet town?

I wish guilty was posting

[Bell]

Tea leaves, why is tweet town?

I wish guilty was posting

Same.

[tea leaves]

Morning is town because of the emotion and WIM from my push and genuine interest in trying to solve this puzzle. Her constantly delving into ISOs and Ydrasse interactions look more genuine than performative. Also, OMGUSing me is a pretty losing play since I stick around as a treestump, and scum!her probably doesn't think I change my read after being pushed back from her. I think she'd try and change my mind in a more subtle way.

[tea leaves]

Tbh 2150 is giving me some doubts on Guilty being scum.. that is a LOT of distancing if that's what it is.

[tea leaves]

What are you concluding from that post, Morning? You think it's all genuine and Guilty is town?

[Dannflor]

GuiltyLion has been prodded.

[tea leaves]

Wait, Dann is in this game???

Guys, let's Occam's Razor this.

1) Is Dann still alive and has survived multiple nights? If no, move to 2). If yes, move to 3)
2) Dann is dead and is town.
3) Dann is deepwolfing.

VOTE: Dannflor

[Isis]

VOTE: tea leaves

[Morning Tweet]

glad i could be Guilty's lawyer

With all of the options there are in the game, who is more likely than tea?

VOTE: tea

[Morning Tweet]

What are you concluding from that post, Morning? You think it's all genuine and Guilty is town?

If Guilty is scum, he's a rather mean and hard bussing partner to Ydrasse who presumably he doesn't know very well and also can't set up his interactions with her in a PT. Well, actually I'm confused about that, maybe they technically could've

@Mod

Could scum talk during pregame?

[Morning Tweet]

But regardless I really don't see it being Guilty

Farren I reread through -- very hard against Ydrasse although not to the same extent. He actually unvotes Ydrasse on D1, thinking her elimination to be assured, to vote elsewhere. Not sure i get that voting philosophy but he doesn't make the same mistake on D2 and sticks to Ydrasse the whole way i think

[Farren]

VOTE: Gamma

I'd heavily prefer Gamma over Ydrasse too. Join us, Ydrasse!!!

Why?

Speaking off of tone I guess. Ydrasse's seemed somewhat genuine mostly

This exchange here.

1198 sounds excited. 1204 sounds a lot more muted.

This is when the Gamma wagon was starting to gain steam, just after the case where Ydrasse / tea leaves are the top two contenders.

For a Ydrasse/tea leaves team, the Gamma wagon is a godsend and justifies some excitement.

But 1204 comes in with "somewhat genuine mostly." That sounds significantly less excited. Less confident after "heavily prefer Gamma over Ydrasse."

If this excitement came from town|tea leaves, I would expect it to continue to 1204. Those posts were about seven minutes apart. But scum|tea leaves might very well realize that that excitement could be taken the wrong way and tamp it down to more reasonable levels.

The one thing that gives me pause is that vote in 1176 - Ydrasse to tea leaves.

Looking at her reasoning - and yes, she's scum, so truthfulness is questionable, but she has to want to at least *look* plausible - she rules out me, MT, Bell, and Isis for various reasons. Dunnstral's the claimed firefighter. Guilty's going nowhere.

But looking back, Ydrasse did have a TR on Gamma. A light one, but a TR nonetheless. So did it come from a worry of being inconsistent? Like, she just backed herself into a corner between her own townreads and the gamestate? And then it ended up not mattering after the Gamma wagon took off.

[Farren]

Not going to cast an E-1 vote at this point - want to make sure Guilty gets a chance to weigh in, just in case. But that's where I'm leaning right now.

[Isis]

Farren please don't be scum I couldn't handle that

[Farren]

By the power of the re-roll, your request was granted.

[tea leaves]

Uh oh

Will have to utilise all of the solving power for tomorrow then

[tea leaves]

VOTE: tea leaves

Why you back on me, Isis?

[tea leaves]

I think it's Hobbes but if not, probably Bell.

i'm just gonna be hardpocketed here

I thought you were with me here

[Isis]

VOTE: Bell

[tea leaves]

Whether or not scum could talk during pregame actually makes a big difference for me. I can see Ydrasse telling Hobbes to bus her, but if there was none, I agree that it seems a little odd for Hobbes to be bussing her so much considering she's relatively new.

[Morning Tweet]

Whether or not scum could talk during pregame actually makes a big difference for me. I can see Ydrasse telling Hobbes to bus her, but if there was none, I agree that it seems a little odd for Hobbes to be bussing her so much considering she's relatively new.

Yup this is primarily what i am interested in. The rules do not mention pregame talk but I believe GL/Farren mentioned they could speak pregame..?

[Farren]

VOTE: tea leaves

Scum could talk during pre-game. I didn't get a chance to do it, but I did at least have time to ask if it was allowed. I think GL said he had enough time to post something in the PT before it disappeared?