Mini 621 - Pantsville (Game over!)


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Post Post #675 (ISO) » Sun Aug 10, 2008 1:26 pm

Post by Adel »

Haschel Cedricson wrote:Adel, I assume your result (if you have one) is that EA left their house last night. Is this correct?
no, I got a "player X didn't leave thier house last night" on a different player.

I suspected that EA may have lied about being a townie when in fact he was a one-shot vig. That would explain his case against Guzame which I didn't quite buy at the time.

I don't see why two scum groups would target clammy night 1, that would take a pretty strong coincidence. I guess night 1 the hypothetical SK may have targeted reborn.

possibilities:
-sk
-unclaimed vig
-mafia role yielding an extra kill
- ???
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Post Post #676 (ISO) » Sun Aug 10, 2008 1:30 pm

Post by Haschel Cedricson »

Adel wrote:I don't see why two scum groups would target clammy night 1, that would take a pretty strong coincidence. I guess night 1 the hypothetical SK may have targeted reborn.
A scum group and Guzame could have both targeted Yosarian. Would that be a strong coincidence?
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Post Post #677 (ISO) » Sun Aug 10, 2008 1:36 pm

Post by Adel »

HC wrote:A scum group and Guzame could have both targeted Yosarian. Would that be a strong coincidence?
that works for me.

a quick scan reveals that goborage and Lowell as the two players who didn't interact with CR much during the game, and neither Lowell or goborage were on the lynch wagon. HC was on the CR wagon on day 1, but not on day 2. Was the manner in which he abandoned the wagon suspicious?
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Post Post #678 (ISO) » Sun Aug 10, 2008 1:50 pm

Post by Farkshinsoup »

Ouch.

Go town.
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Post Post #679 (ISO) » Sun Aug 10, 2008 2:35 pm

Post by reborn537 »

Adel wrote:
Haschel Cedricson wrote:Adel, I assume your result (if you have one) is that EA left their house last night. Is this correct?
no, I got a "player X didn't leave thier house last night" on a different player.

I suspected that EA may have lied about being a townie when in fact he was a one-shot vig. That would explain his case against Guzame which I didn't quite buy at the time.

I don't see why two scum groups would target clammy night 1, that would take a pretty strong coincidence. I guess night 1 the hypothetical SK may have targeted reborn.

possibilities:
-sk
-unclaimed vig
-mafia role yielding an extra kill
- ???
Not likely. I haven't used my ability once so far. Too risky for the rest of the town.
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Post Post #680 (ISO) » Mon Aug 11, 2008 1:41 am

Post by reborn537 »

I'm comfortable with lynching one of the vanilla's today, or Adel if peopel convince me.
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Post Post #681 (ISO) » Tue Aug 12, 2008 3:08 am

Post by Lowell »

I'm back, just so everyone knows.

Will look through everything again later, but for now I'd say that we're almost certainly dealing with an SK and at least one of the vanillas lying.
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Post Post #682 (ISO) » Tue Aug 12, 2008 3:20 am

Post by reborn537 »

I've decided.

vote EA


His vanilla claim coupled with inconsistent and seemingly uninterested play (setting up for people to use the WIFOM "If he was mafia he'd be more into it") was enough to swing me on this one, for now. Especially seeing as Adel presumably investigated one of the Vanilla's (not EA, apparently) and got a safe result on them. I'm thinking she probably used her ability on HC, but I guess given her vote before my change of heart yesterday it could have been Lowell. Either way, I think EA is a good choice for today. I'll be rereading later to review possible CR/EA distancing/interaction.
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Post Post #683 (ISO) » Tue Aug 12, 2008 8:49 pm

Post by Erratus Apathos »

Having reviewed the thread I'm thinking Haschel is mafia. First post of day 2, regarding Reborn:
Haschel Cedricson wrote:I want to believe him, because I can't see a scum player making such a claim that early in the game. However, I don't like the way he tried to move things away from CR onto chenshi before the deadline.
Reborn was very consistent with his attack on chenhsi on day 1, (particularly compared to Haschel, who was on the Clockwork wagon early but suddenly hammered chenhsi citing "a reread shows me a few things that make you a plausible lynch") and I'll be damned if I can see anything scummy about it. This reads like he's trying to setup Reborn to fall after Clockwork's lynch.

His case against Adel yesterday was total weaksauce. It pretty much hinged on Adel not fullclaiming, which is a really lame excuse to ignore Clockwork all day.

If there's a third mafioso, I think it'd have to be either Lowell or Goborage, mostly because I believe Adel and Reborn are town. Clockwork made a post yesterday that looked like a slip that there's only two on his team though, and I don't even know how to begin hunting for an SK.
reborn537 wrote:
vote EA


His vanilla claim coupled with inconsistent and seemingly uninterested play (setting up for people to use the WIFOM "If he was mafia he'd be more into it") was enough to swing me on this one, for now.
My half-hearted play isn't alignment based, I'm just a half-hearted person. When do you think I have been inconsistent?
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Post Post #684 (ISO) » Wed Aug 13, 2008 8:17 am

Post by Haschel Cedricson »

a quick scan reveals that goborage and Lowell as the two players who didn't interact with CR much during the game, and neither Lowell or goborage were on the lynch wagon. HC was on the CR wagon on day 1, but not on day 2. Was the manner in which he abandoned the wagon suspicious?
My getting off the CR wagon was entirely due to me finding a wagon I liked better, which I think is a valid reason to abandon a wagon.
(particularly compared to Haschel, who was on the Clockwork wagon early but suddenly hammered chenhsi citing "a reread shows me a few things that make you a plausible lynch")
I will be honest and admit that I do not remember exactly what posts by chenhsi made me hammer, but I think that I made it pretty clear that CR was my number-one choice that day. As for my quote about reborn at the beginning of the day...
reborn wrote:
Noone vote for ClockworkRuse, there is a lurker vote on him, so he would be hammered unfairly and the decision wouldn't represent the consensus of the town


I don't think Haschel's vote should affect things tbh. I see it as 3 on Clock, 4 on Chenhsi, but sadly that's not how the game works.
...I really did not like this post as a reason to lynch chenshi over CR, and if it had not been for reborn's claim, I probably would have assumed scumbuddies.

Then we massclaimed and the game changed.
His case against Adel yesterday was total weaksauce. It pretty much hinged on Adel not fullclaiming, which is a really lame excuse to ignore Clockwork all day.
The first post I made where I voted for Adel did not mention anything about not full-claiming, because I didn't notice that until later in the day. My case on Adel was built on the unlikelyness over her role, based both due to redundancy (overlap with Farkshin) and flavor (the likely powerroles all had guns). After this post, just about everything Adel did seemed to confirm my theory, which is why I didn't move.

Vote Adel
. My theory still stands.

Also, I am still in the process of moving houses, so activity may come in bursts.
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Post Post #685 (ISO) » Wed Aug 13, 2008 8:38 am

Post by reborn537 »

My point about not voting for people who have lurker votes on them is this - it makes it extremely easy for the mafia to take advantage of the situation and go for a quick hammer, especially if the lurker vote was from the random voting stage or from a totally different situation. The lurker's opinion might well have changed were they actually paying attention.

Anyway, I think you'll find I sorted out CR pretty handily on Day 2. I changed my vote from Lowell to CR and then 13 posts later he was dead.
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Post Post #686 (ISO) » Wed Aug 13, 2008 12:12 pm

Post by Adel »

vote: Haschel Cedricson


He seems a little too determined to lynch me.
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Post Post #687 (ISO) » Wed Aug 13, 2008 1:01 pm

Post by reborn537 »

Somewhat OMGUS, Adel. I am comfortable with an HC lynch, though. Despite the fact that most people have counted me as one of the more confirmed members of the town since day 1 he's continued to cast doubt on me constantly, particularly about the CR thing, ignoring totally the fact that I handily lynched him yesterday. I just think he's annoyed at me because I got there before he could bus him.
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Post Post #688 (ISO) » Wed Aug 13, 2008 3:11 pm

Post by Haschel Cedricson »

reborn537 wrote:Somewhat OMGUS, Adel. I am comfortable with an HC lynch, though. Despite the fact that most people have counted me as one of the more confirmed members of the town since day 1 he's continued to cast doubt on me constantly, particularly about the CR thing, ignoring totally the fact that I handily lynched him yesterday. I just think he's annoyed at me because I got there before he could bus him.
Um, I haven't continued to cast doubt on you at all, unless you're considering a post pointing out something I didn't like "the whole game". In fact, I was the first person to point out that your premature claim was such a horrible play that it meant you were almost definitely town.

For the record, here's how I see the game:

Mafia = Adel, goborage, and CR.
SK = EA
Town = Reborn, Lowell, and myself.

Not one person has explained why we would have both Adel's claimed role and a gunsmith in the game when all of the confirmed powerroles we've seen have owned guns. We had two players claim non-vanilla roles that were in no way related to guns. CR was lying about his role. Adel is lying about her role. Adel ALREADY lied about her role. Adel admitted that it was in the scum's best interest to claim last, and then she manipulated her claim so effectively SHE claimed last. She has been subtly trying to get the town's eye off of her using tactics such as listing herself as "confirmed town" and trying to limit discussion to the players who claimed vanilla. When you combine an unlikely role with scummy actions, you get probable Mafia. At least, that's what I got, and the only rebuttal to this theory that's came from anybody other than Adel was EA presenting a strawman of my case. I am voting Adel.
I will not move my vote for the rest of the day.
Seriously, reread Adel.

I haven't even commented on Quagmire pushing for reborn's lynch on Day 1.

On to goborage. Remember how discussion on Day 1 centered around CR and chenhsi? goborage mentioned CR ONE time on Day 1, and that was to agree with a comment CR made about EA. On Day Two, right after Adel and I made a ton of posts going back and forth, what did gobo have to say about that exchange?
goborage wrote:Sorry about the lack of posting.

I have problems with some of the power role claims. Lowell, Guzame, and Farkshin are all lacking PM flavour. Just quote the PM and replace some words with synonyms or something.

Farkshin's claim seems to corroborate with reborn's (and Guzame's which unfortunately is lacking in flavour as well) but I'm questioning the utility of such a role. What is it's purpose?

I'm not crazy about CWR's claim either but an ambiguous text is at least interesting. Wouldn't we need a doc for a nurse to work?

Out of the vanillas, I'd say EA is the scummiest. His D1 play was almost entirely devoid of scum-hunting. D2 isn't much better. The whole asking Chenhsi a question and not receiving an answer strikes me as scummy. Just asking someone a question is not scum-hunting. It may look that way but if you aren't pressuring them to answer then it's pretty much useless and really just for show.

And please enlighten us with your thoughts on Chenhsi. If you really had a plan all along then town will be glad to hear it.
Huh. He doesn't mention the Adel-HC debate at all, despite the fact that it had been a prominant feature of the previous two pages. He throws in token suspicion of CR's claim, but he reserves his greatest suspicion for Lowell, Guzame, and Farkshin because
they didn't post flavor
. When he says "[he] has a problem with some of the power role claims", he apparently means "all of them except for Adel."

If you have arrived at the conclusion that Adel is Mafia, which I have, then goborage is almost certainly her partner.

As for EA being the Serial Killer: I'm not SK, and reborn's not SK. That leaves Lowell and EA as candidates. A Serial Killer needs to survive until endgame. Lowell's claim makes it likely that he gets offed before endgame, which is a situation that the SK would not want to place themselves it. This seems to indicate Lowell is not the SK. Also, I mentioned earlier how killing Guzame was a horrible move for the SK. Based on the experience records of Lowell and EA, I find it easier to see EA making such a mistake. Ergo, EA = SK.
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Post Post #689 (ISO) » Fri Aug 15, 2008 3:00 am

Post by Lowell »

To answer the question someone asked, I
do
have a gun.

This is what I see, briefly.

Adel
- She pushed hard for claiming and was in the forefront of the CR lynch. I'm not sure why she'd go to such lengths to bus a teammate. Especially if the CR slip is right and there's only two mafia. The much more likely scenario for her to be an SK, if she's scum at all. The biggest point against her is the very OMGUS 686. Not only is it lazy, but it makes no sense. What does HC suspecting her have to do with him being scum?

HC
- As the claims were starting, HC made some posts that made me think he's scum (post 429 in particular). He half-heartedly opposed the claiming, but not strong enough to be seen doing it. However, I like his most recent post (688), though I think it makes a much stronger case for goborage than for Adel.

goborage
- what HC points out is right, I think. Plus I really don't think there are as many vanilla in this game as he would have us believe.

EA
- this doesn't strike me as the same guy that came totally unglued when he was called out for a slip in another game (as scum). However, he's been out of the fray a lot, making me think that if Adel isn't the SK, he is.

reborn
- His vote for EA seems strange to me, though he could be right. The only problem with it is it looks like he was eager to start the day voting for one of the least active players, which reeks of opportunism and diversion.

vote goborage
. I like this vote better than HC, and much better than Adel.
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Post Post #690 (ISO) » Fri Aug 15, 2008 3:05 am

Post by reborn537 »

I wanted to get things started early on, Lowell. I am fine with a goborage lynch - I feel like if we don't lynch one of the vanilla claims today it will be spitting in the face of yesterday's mass claim.
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Post Post #691 (ISO) » Fri Aug 15, 2008 11:28 am

Post by Adel »

I think that EA or Lowell are the most probable SK, and I investigated goborage last night (he did not make a night move). I am most willing to lynch HC, but all of the above are open for consideration.
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Post Post #692 (ISO) » Fri Aug 15, 2008 12:01 pm

Post by reborn537 »

I'm fine with my vote on EA, thanks.

Isn't it quite strange for a serial killer to use a gun though? Don't they traditionally use a knife in mafia? I don't think we can rule out 2 two man scum groups right now.
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Post Post #693 (ISO) » Fri Aug 15, 2008 6:38 pm

Post by Haschel Cedricson »

reborn wrote:I'm fine with my vote on EA, thanks.

Isn't it quite strange for a serial killer to use a gun though? Don't they traditionally use a knife in mafia? I don't think we can rule out 2 two man scum groups right now.
All of the kill methods have been "shot night X", so if there is an SK, he's using a gun.

CR was identified as just "a mafia goon", so we have no indication of two two-man pairs.

Now, if you still want to lynch EA, who do you think his partner is? If we lynch the SK today, then the Mafia wins. They will kill a townsperson during the night, resulting in 2 vs. 2 the next day, and Lowell's dueling only applies for 1 vs. 1. We HAVE to lynch a mafia member to have a chance of winning.
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Post Post #694 (ISO) » Fri Aug 15, 2008 7:22 pm

Post by Adel »

Lowell wrote:To answer the question someone asked, I
do
have a gun.
how do you know?
Lowell wrote:
goborage wrote:Is there any flavour in your PM Lowell?
Not really. I didn't realize the townie PM is listed on 1st page.
It's similar, except has a bit of flavour about duels and dueling abilities.
five days later...

~~~

I was looking at this, and put the notable stuff in bold
Lowell wrote:I'm here. May not have access again until vacation ends on Saturday. Not an excuse to lynch me.

The insect in my PM is a non-issue. I just read the townie PM, it's the same.


I still don't like Guzame's claim, and I think the number of people claiming to be "normal" townies is too high. Given the number of quasi-vanilla roles, I can't see there being so many pure vanilla.

For now internet time is limited. If I can steal wireless I'll add more later this week.
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Post Post #695 (ISO) » Fri Aug 15, 2008 9:19 pm

Post by Haschel Cedricson »

Fuck.

Reborn and Farkshinsoup both stated that there was not an insect mentioned in their PMs, and they were not simple townspeople. Lowell is not a simple townsperson.

Unvote: Adel
.

I know I promised my vote was frozen a few posts ago, but if Lowell is lying then I've been viewing the whole game through faulty lenses.

Reread now, sleep later, post later than that.
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Post Post #696 (ISO) » Fri Aug 15, 2008 10:36 pm

Post by Erratus Apathos »

Mod: can we get a prod on Goborage?

Haschel Cedricson wrote:Not one person has explained why we would have both Adel's claimed role and a gunsmith in the game when all of the confirmed powerroles we've seen have owned guns.
Why
wouldn't
we have them both?
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Post Post #697 (ISO) » Sat Aug 16, 2008 10:57 am

Post by Lowell »

I know I have a gun because I asked the mod at several ppl's request.

Is the point you're trying to make that I didn't read the vanilla PM at the beginning of the game? Yeah, that happened. If this matters, the insect is not listed in the same PLACE in my PM. It is offset by commas on both sides.
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Post Post #698 (ISO) » Sat Aug 16, 2008 12:41 pm

Post by reborn537 »

Careful, talking about grammar in role pms is a rule infringement.
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Post Post #699 (ISO) » Sat Aug 16, 2008 12:44 pm

Post by Adel »

I think you mean punctuation, but I don't believe he is talking about an actual role PM. I think he mentioned an insect just in case each role PM mentioned an insect.

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