Newbie 2031 - The Wild Hunt (End!)

[shellyc]

now why do you think anti-town behaviour = not scum influenced?

if there is no town motivation for doing something, it DOES NOT COME FROM TOWN.

[Satisfaction]

I feel like town!shelly would point out how statistically unlikely it is that she is rolling into a scum slot right now, but scum!shelly would worry too much about how it would sound. Especially in light of Mundivore’s earlier statements about scum using probabilities to make cases in unfair ways because of their information advantage.

[shellyc]

idrc about stats, besides im a replacement and stats of scum replacing out are very high from what I know

[the worst]

Same place it has been all game. Anti-town behavior. No strong conviction that it’s scum-influenced.

fwiw i dig this

pedit: probability of shelly being scum in this game is 2/9 (2/8 from either of our perspectives assuming we are both town)
it's best we don't get bogged down with probability

[shellyc]

Satis is probably caught in confbias.

I kinda start thinking about town!worst now. especially if scum!arthur.

I think arthur is my top SR, followed by bluebells.

[shellyc]

the probability of me being town in this game is 100%

[Satisfaction]

now why do you think anti-town behaviour = not scum influenced?

if there is no town motivation for doing something, it DOES NOT COME FROM TOWN.

This is ground that’s been covered already in this game. My leading response to this is, I’m not so high on myself that I think I caught scum on page three. Hubris. Beyond that, I’ll save the theory discussion for a time when I’m not talking to a famous wriggler whose game is on the line.

[shellyc]

Satis how many of my games have you read?

fwiw sometimes town are just town, and scum are just scum. wifom isn't really a thing

[Satisfaction]

if there is no town motivation for doing something, it DOES NOT COME FROM TOWN.

This is wrong and you know it’s wrong. People aren’t robots. People don’t play perfect logical games. Of all people, you know this.

[shellyc]

This is wrong and you know it’s wrong. People aren’t robots. People don’t play perfect logical games. Of all people, you know this.

you have missed the point so spectacularly

[Satisfaction]

I’ve probably read 2 full games of yours and parts of a handful of others.

Flop. Flop. Flop.

[shellyc]

im interested in how you would read me if you take into account meta and meta only

[the worst]

shelly and i this game in full colour HD

[shellyc]

good one worsty

[Satisfaction]

I kinda start thinking about town!worst now.

Psst. Hey, town. Interesting how peoples’ convictions go out the window when they’re being marched up to the gallows, right?

[shellyc]

satis misrepping again

[shellyc]

like it's clear im trying to consider counterfactuals especially when rescanning worsty ISO

bluebells FoS is pretty legitimate but I wanna consider that as 1) town trying to push avenues and 2) scum framing someone for a miselim

[Egix96]

mundivore can you explain further your read on satis as they're pretty townie

worsty isnt happening so VOTE: Arthur

bluebells I want a readslist asap

Your readslist missed what I wished to solicit.
But if you insist...

Mafia:
Arthur

Town:
Egix96
Satisfaction
Bluebell

Mystery Mafia Member:
Noraa/The Worst?
Clarkbar/Shelly?
Mundivore?
NotKnown15?
Redados?

Who do you think is most/least likely to be the mystery member? Even if it's just gut.

[Egix96]

last interesting observation before i go back to work: shelly has not attempted to have a read on NK15. i think NK15 has been like, uncharacteristically divisive and

easy to have a read on this game

. i'm not sure what this really means but it's a thing.

For you perhaps, but not for the rest of us.

[shellyc]

if i'm wrong on shelly arthur is scum
if i'm right on shelly sure, arthur is probably still scum
i'm being selfish and shelly is more likely to kill us all and endgame. >:

oh something pinged me again - this is quite postury and preparing for a world where I am flipped green today

[shellyc]

Ok Hot Take: I scumread Egix96 now.
81 is fence-sitting on Arthur’s Alignment
fluffposting until 186 which is mainly prodding people to give their thoughts + IIoA
235 hard defends arthur which is super weird especially if arthur is red
350 CLATS (confirmed lurker and therefore scum) vanity vote on lurker isnt giving any game advancing info?
357 is subtle shade at mundivore whos pretty town so far?

like overall i dont feel like this is a very protown iso and egix has been fallen under the radar
this makes me reconsider worsty tbh
arthur is still scum

[shellyc]

Also another thing that kinda pings me is how worsty pursues bluebell despite egix and bluebell both placed at null in his readslist

im pretty sure there is scum in {worst, arthur, egix}

[shellyc]

bluebell slot comes off as quite geniune to me
mundivore + redados are both pretty solid townies upon reread
arthur just comes off as... slimy. and spat with satis reads TvS. and idk i dont really see much solving happening there but this could easily be LHF (low hanging fruit i.e. elimination bait). Overall scummy slot
egix is now my hot take scumread + interactions with worsty kinda points to partners?
worsty's interactions with me upon my rep-in was kinda omgussy / shading instead of solving me and ive stated why I sus them multiple times
nk15's willingness to be bold and put early E-1 is decently townie - idrt scum just does that
satisfaction's consideration of me + worst still reads townie
fferyllt is lockscum.

[the worst]

last interesting observation before i go back to work: shelly has not attempted to have a read on NK15. i think NK15 has been like, uncharacteristically divisive and

easy to have a read on this game

. i'm not sure what this really means but it's a thing.

For you perhaps, but not for the rest of us.

hmm, fair.
I've only ever had a strong read on NK15 before and he turned out to be town.
I really do think he believed his scum!Sati case.

[shellyc]

worsty lets talk; whats your read on egix?