if anyone is a mason, a cop, or a doctor (or just a jailkeeper~), shelly is now confirmed scum to you. if you're a mason but think you're likely to be eliminated, just counterclaim. otherwise just follow your heart.
regardless of what she does or doesn't claim, there's an overarching fact in this setup: certain roles are confirmable to exist, or not exist, based on other claims which happen later in the game. jailkeeper is one of those roles. if shelly is fakeclaiming, she'll be caught.
just quickly let's pretend she's scum fakeclaiming jailkeeper in any setup:
a1: cop & doc both know she's lying; she's confirmed scum as soon as they claim/flip
a2: jk knows she's lying; they counterclaim her the day before xylo, or she's confirmed scum if they flip
a3: both masons know she's lying; they can counterclaim & mutually confirm each other later or she's confirmed scum if either of them flip
b1: neither tpr currently knows she's lying (they can all co-exist, but only two at a time), but if we have a tracker claim/flip, then the fn knows she's lying and vice versa; if either flips, then the surviving TPR knows she's scum
b2: the jailkeeper knows she's scum. they can counterclaim her anytime before xylo. following a scumflip, jailkept players are confirmed to be town as long as there's a scum nightkill (as they can't have performed it). so if the jailkeeper counterclaims, they should confirm their target.
b3: doctor knows she's fakeclaiming; she's guiltied as soon as they die
c1: cop knows she's fakeclaiming; she's guiltied as soon as they die
c2: jk knows she's fakeclaiming; she's guiltied as soon as they die
c3: both masons know she's lying; they can counterclaim & mutually confirm each other later or she's confirmed scum if either of them flip
jailkeeper is a really bad fakeclaim, unless she's trying to draw out a counterclaim before she goes down. in which case i'd rather not give her the satisfaction, and just leave her alive until she's guiltied by the setup.
any objections?
In post 605, the worst wrote:jailkeeper is a really bad fakeclaim, unless she's trying to draw out a counterclaim before she goes down.
I'm not sure if you've read doggos, but Shelly made a really poorly thought out (in my opinion) fakeclaim, so we know that it's in her wheelhouse
sure, i think shelly's strength lies primarily in her ability to powerdrive eliminations & survive (slippery fishy) rather than her mechgame. i feel like my bias is showing; i still really don't......feel like she's actually town? but that has gone from being a complicated function to a boolean. the setup will literally tell us whether or not she's town, and if she is then scum really need to wipe her out. so it's kinda meh.
In post 612, the worst wrote:could I have an update on your Egix read please, Reda?
yeah. it's part poe and part solving as arthur partner. POE because I can see Arthur+Egix or Arthur+Bluebell here. He also seems to be going to bat for arthur here, he moved the wagon from arthur to shelly. he's also been somewhat consistent about not scumreading Arthur from the beginning.
if Arthur flips green I will be targeting in {the worst, egix}. I won’t be saying who as if I hard claim target + 2 scum left, even if I jail scum the partner can make the kill
"I really dig your cult leadery charismatic vibes" - Hectic
We live in a twilight world. And there are no friends at dusk.
ah, if you're actually the jk it was very smart that you claimed exactly then.
if you're scum it'll be your downfall
<3
pedit: you have a much higher % chance of protecting the nightkill target, than successfully blocking the kill from going through. i'd encourage shooting into high NK value townreads rather than ~exactly who you think the scumteam is~ for the 1/28 (i think) chance you're right and then the 50% chance within that world that you block correctly.
i am manipulating maths to exaggerate my point, but
as either alignment i'd be giving the same advice.
i didn't pick your crumb. i would not have tunneled you if i caught your crumb.
i'm calm because i've worn these shoes before. maybe you're a town jailkeeper, maybe you're fakeclaiming. it's day one and i have at least one non-you scum to find. no point getting bogged down because you're not going to be elim'd today.
1) Your crumb means nothing. Why would a crumb ever matter in a situation where other roles haven’t already been claimed.
2) TW was never excited for your elimination. Not since it seriously hit the table.
Saying the claim was a spur of the moment decision is also a lie. Shelly already gave intent to claim and “self towncase”. I’m not interested in hearing either from her.
