Large Normal 229 | Manatee's Musical Mafia | Game Over

[Micc]

Votecount 7.01

ralph217 (1) -

JacksonVirgo

Not Voting (4) -

ralph217, Titus, Town looter, Glitch

With 5 players alive it takes 3 votes to eliminate.

The deadline for Day 7 is in (expired on 2020-10-06 18:00:00).

[ralph217]

haha i knew i was onto somethin on jack . so jack and glitch maybe ? both of glitch/loot made a nice gambit . anyway i relly doubt i can fight this as everyoeb thinks jack is towm and im bad

[ralph217]

ill make a scum case on jack but im vla roght now so you need to wait for me

[ralph217]

VOTE: jack all of the evidence town needs to win this is there though . look at Jack talking to me like he knew i was town yesterday especially when we were having that conversation about flakes being scum and then look at his very very aggressive reaction when I suggested a no lunch .

[Titus]

Catch up later today.

@Ralph, how long are uou vla for? Can you bold in thread?

[Titus]

From your pov, there's at least one scum within me and ralph with a possibility for both yet you push for a titus elimination.

This is on the basis that Ralph is scum too. If Jackson is scum, the whole protection plan doesn't work.

If Ralph is scum, then why not lynch him knowing I'll be trapped in the PoE?

Looter dismisses the possibility of Jackson and Ralph far too quickly.

I suspect Looter's reason for a fast TR on Glitch is a pocket attempt.

@Looter, Supposing Ralph is scum, why should I TR you over Glitch/Jackson?

[JacksonVirgo]

From your pov, there's at least one scum within me and ralph with a possibility for both yet you push for a titus elimination.

This is on the basis that Ralph is scum too. If Jackson is scum, the whole protection plan doesn't work.

If Ralph is scum, then why not lynch him knowing I'll be trapped in the PoE?

Looter dismisses the possibility of Jackson and Ralph far too quickly.

I suspect Looter's reason for a fast TR on Glitch is a pocket attempt.

@Looter, Supposing Ralph is scum, why should I TR you over Glitch/Jackson?

1. I know Ralph is scum but from all of your perspective sure
2. Don’t understand this point
3. That’s why I am thinking it’s a possible TMI knowing pushing for that is stupid.
4. Eh I town read them pretty fast as well because logically they are extremely likely to be town
5. Not to me so I’ll be ignoring

[JacksonVirgo]

haha i knew i was onto somethin on jack . so jack and glitch maybe ? both of glitch/loot made a nice gambit . anyway i relly doubt i can fight this as everyoeb thinks jack is towm and im bad

This is about the response I was expecting although I was expecting more “lmao”

[JacksonVirgo]

I always love mechanical wins ngl

[Glitch]

It is also very possible scum know they could be in a really bad spot and are going to turn on each other in order to win. Anybody proposing an idea at this point that finds scum still does not get town points in my book. Just putting that out there now because Loot has just coasted on shellys death this whole time and made it this far and I just can't allow that to happen with anyone else after the next scum flip.

[Town looter]

I suspect Looter's reason for a fast TR on Glitch is a pocket attempt.

Except that I have been (warily) TRing Glitch for the whole game. Now sure, I could've been doing this because, if scum, I would know Glitch is town, but the "fast TR" bit seems a bit disingenuous.

@Looter, Supposing Ralph is scum, why should I TR you over Glitch/Jackson?

Based on mechanical information, you shouldn't. I'll quite happily admit my role, and subsequent claim, is the weirdest out of the 3, but I wrote a wall post during one of the night phases that goes into my thinking on this.

Non-mechanical information-wise, this is really up to you. I have a bunch of posts and reactions that makes sense coming from town (like my reaction to Fwesnid claim, and my subsequent reads on that slot), but whether or not you think those are genuine or fake is really up to you.

Now, I suspect you are going to call them fake, given I am almost certain you are scum.

Also I haven't written off a Ralph/JV scum team, it's just in the realm of high paranoia mode.

[Titus]

It is also very possible scum know they could be in a really bad spot and are going to turn on each other in order to win. Anybody proposing an idea at this point that finds scum still does not get town points in my book. Just putting that out there now because Loot has just coasted on shellys death this whole time and made it this far and I just can't allow that to happen with anyone else after the next scum flip.

Unless we lynch Jackson, I don't see how burn and coast is a viable strategy. Ralph flips scum. Tomorrow becomes a 1 v 1 with you and looter. Looter cannot coast based off a Ralph bus.

Now, I don't see anyone hard bussing Jackson here to create this concern.

Workshop with me. Let's suppose Jackson is scum. Which is more likely scum, Ralph or Looter? I can't see where a Jackson scumteam fakes a guilty on his partner and proposes a near autoloss. I can't also see Looter trying to divert the lynch onto me in a Looter/Jackson scrnario. Is there something I am missing? Jackson could be scum but his only partner would be you. I don't see you as scum though, particularly with your vote abstain push.

[Titus]

@Looter, The fact you are insisting you're still a night 3 gunsmith is off. You did a decent fakeclaim, but why not own up to it as either alignment?

[Town looter]

@Looter, The fact you are insisting you're still a night 3 gunsmith is off. You did a decent fakeclaim, but why not own up to it as either alignment?

Because it's real.

[JacksonVirgo]

It is also very possible scum know they could be in a really bad spot and are going to turn on each other in order to win.

Anybody proposing an idea at this point that finds scum still does not get town points in my book

. Just putting that out there now because Loot has just coasted on shellys death this whole time and made it this far and I just can't allow that to happen with anyone else after the next scum flip.

If you're aiming at me for the bolded bit, I wasn't saying that for any speck of town-cred. It's a simple auto-win scenario once ralph flips, unless you disagree that it will not work.

[JacksonVirgo]

To make a case on Ralph off the top of my head, because I was not expecting to need to ngl, Ralph was almost non-existant before MyLo yesterday but all of a sudden they're here a LOT. Literally half their posts was from MyLo and today. This is starting from This post, this seems overly pushy towards Titus as they knew that a Titus push was probably their only win condition.

@everybody

, what are your current reads on ralph and stan1ey in comparison with each other. And would that change with a NEE town/scum flip.

i told told you Norweige and stan both felt towm !

This reaks of TMI

thats not what tmi is . im happy my reads were right it's a i told you so

Overly confident like what Shelly was (unless I am recalling wrong) and also in surrounding posts they are sounding absolutely certain that Titus is scum when it could very well be just me and Looter from their pov because they need people to side with them and lynch Titus for a win.

fine basicly the plan is:
jack check me
glitch motion detect titus loot or ydrasse and try to target kill maker

scum cant leave jack alive for wifom cuse then it narros poe and im clear
and its better to rule out jack deepscum world
if jack still alive it gives us info and we can talk abt if jack is pulling the fast oen
we should alway be no luching today

Pushes for my death, but pushes that they would be clear for it which is ??

totus you ahouldnt protec jack cuse pretty sur one of you is scum so no need to .

Pushes for my death even more

[JacksonVirgo]

Wait considering I am alive it could either be a frame of Ralph because they said if I was left alive I was wolf, and/or they were afraid Titus was on me but didn't want to attack titus because they're either buddies with them or Titus was likely to go on Ralph.

I think this is just going to further into a hole but yeah.

[Glitch]

I'm going into full analysis mode here, and I will do so publicly so my ideas can face full scrutiny and retort from all. The more townies review my thoughts the more refined they will become. Two of you are my teammates and two of you are trying to thwart me, and it looks like I might be the swing vote or possibly deciding factor here which is a lot of pressure. Give me some time and let's especially wait until Ralph is back from VLA. But in that time, I will be analyzing. Most of this information is just for me to mull through myself but as you look over, I'd love to here your input as well.

Spoiler: Every possible scum team

Looter + Titus
Looter + JV
Looter + Ralph
Titus + JV
Titus + Ralph
JV + Ralph

This is, of course, my list. Three of us in this game know I am town. For my two remaining teammates, you don't know for sure that I am, so your solves also add:

Spoiler: Additional Solves Other Townies Will Consider

Looter + Glitch
Titus + Glitch
JV + Glitch
Ralph + Glitch

Now let me rank these in order of how likely I think they are to be true.

Pair	Likelihood
Looter + JV	5%
JV + Ralph *	10%
Looter + Titus	15%
Looter + Ralph	20%
Titus + JV	20%
Titus + Ralph	30%

*One of these two is scum for sure.

I'm about to do some ISO dives and will revise my rankings shortly.

[JacksonVirgo]

Before I read. There's no world where it's Looter + Titus. I have a red-check

[JacksonVirgo]

Looter + Titus is an impossible setup considering my check.
Looter + Ralph is what I am personally seeing aorn, due to the opportunistic voting by Ralph and the insanely convenient claim from Looter.
Titus + Ralph is very much possible as well, Ralph and TItus do seem to be on countering sides before I outted my check, it could be that Ralph is planning to yeet themself in hopes of Titus getting enough credit to win through tomorrow.

I'm not entirely sure

[Glitch]

That's a great point and I hadn't put those together yet.

[JacksonVirgo]

That's a great point and I hadn't put those together yet.

Which one were you replying to?

[Titus]

Ralph and TItus do seem to be on countering sides before I outted my check, it could be that Ralph is planning to yeet themself in hopes of Titus getting enough credit to win through tomorrow.

Ralph Titus should be an impossibility. Ralph Titus doesn't kill Ydrasse there, leaving a terrible bind. The autoloss scenario. Let's suppose that Ralph/Titus decided to leave Jackson alive to cop them, despite knowing Jackson was unprotected. The next logical kill would be Glitch to prevent from being caught comitting a kill.

Not killing either of these two suggests a team that couldn't kill safely. No one else kills Ydrasse there.

[Glitch]

Key players to analyze:
Players Alive: Titus, Looter, JV, Ralph, Glitch
Flipped Scum: IKSF, SJReaver/Shelly, DDL/Lapsa

Spoiler: Day 1 lunch

VC1.21

With 21 alive it takes 11 to eliminate

72offsuit (11):

SJReaver, Almost50, Hiraki, Titus, town looter, I Keep Siteflaking, superbowl9, Ydrasse, NoPowerOverMe, JacksonVirgo, Pickaxe Pete

(ELIMINATION!)

Titus (2):

Fwesnid, Nero Cain

Ydrasse (2):

NorwegianboyEE, 72offsuit

NorwegianboyEE (2):

Glitch, Dr Dolittle

DrDolittle(1):

ralph217

Fwesnid (1):

Marshmallow Marshall

Not Voting (2):

stan1ey, Bell

Mod Notes:

1. 72offsuit will be eliminated

D1 Important Points:
Lunch:

72offsuit

On Wagon:

SJR

, Titus, Looter,

IKSF

, JV
Off Wagon:
Glitch voting

Norway

DDL

voting

Norway

Ralph voting

DDL

Spoiler: Day 2 lunch

What should've been VC2.05

With 18 alive it takes 10 to eliminate

DrDolittle (10):

ralph217, shellyc, superbowl9, NorwegianBoyEE, Marshmallow Marshall, I Keep Siteflaking, NoPowerOverMe, Town looter, stan1ey, JacksonVirgo

(ELIMINATION!)

Glitch (2):

DrDolittle, Titus

stan1ey (2):

Ydrasse, Fwesnid

NoPowerOverMe (2):

Almost50, Glitch, Hiraki

Ydrasse (1):

Bell

Not Voting (2):

stan1ey, Town looter

Deadline:

(expired on 2020-09-10 09:00:00)

Mod Notes:

DrDolittle will be eliminated. Apologies for the mishaps and thank you for your patience.

D2 Important Points:
Lunch:

DDL

On Wagon: Ralph,

shelly

,

IKSF

, Looter, JV
Off Wagon:

DDL

voting Glitch
Titus voting Glitch
Glitch voting

NPOM

Spoiler: Day 3 lunch

Hello everyone,
I have not been able to get in contact with ManateeDude, so I'll be jumping in to keep this game moving along. I believe I have access to everything I need to run the game to completion.

VC3.02

With 15 alive it takes 8 to eliminate

NoPowerOverMe (8:)

Ydrasse, shellyc, JacksonVirgo, stan1ey, Town looter, Titus, NorwegianBoyEE, Bell

No Elimination (1:)

NoPowerOverMe

shellyc (1:)

Glitch

Not Voting (5):

Almost50, Hiraki, Fwesnid, ralph217, Marshmallow Marshall

Deadline:

An Elimination has been achieved.

D3 Important Points
Lunch:

NPOM

On Wagon:

shelly

, JV, Looter, Titus
Off Wagon:
Glitch voting

shelly

Ralph not voting

Spoiler: Day 4 lunch

Micc/manatee, would an unaware back up have a gun on them if they weren’t activated yet?

I can't answer this question because "unaware" is not a Normal role or modifier.

Votecount 4.04

shellyc (7) -

NorwegianboyEE, JacksonVirgo, stan1ey, Town looter, Glitch, Bell, Marshmallow Marshall

Almost50 (1) -

Titus

Titus (1) -

Almost50

Town Looter (1) -

shellyc

Not Voting (2) -

Ydrasse, ralph217

With 12 players alive it takes 7 votes to eliminate.

An elimination has been achieved.

D4 Important Points
Lunch:

shelly

On Wagon: JV, Looter, Glitch
Off wagon:
Titus voting

A50

Shelly

voting Looter

Spoiler: Day 5 lunch

Votecount 5.04

NorwegianboyEE (5) -

JacksonVirgo, Marshmallow Marshall, Titus, Glitch, NorwegianboyEE

Titus (1) -

ralph217

Not Voting (3) -

Ydrasse, stan1ey, Town looter

With 9 players alive it takes 5 votes to eliminate.

An elimination has been achieved.

Glitch is V/LA until 9/25.

D5 Important Points
Lunch:

Norway

On Wagon: JV, Titus, Glitch,

Norway

Off Wagon:
Ralph voting Titus
Looter not voting

Spoiler: Day 6 lunch

Votecount 6.03

No Elimination (4) -

Titus, ralph217, Ydrasse, Town Looter

ralph217 (1) -

JacksonVirgo

Not Voting (1) -

Glitch

With 6 players alive it takes 4 votes to eliminate.

No elimination has been achieved.

D6 Important Points
No Lunch
On No-Lunch Wagon: Titus, ralph, Looter
Off Wagon:
JV voting for Ralph
Glitch not voting

[hr]

D1 72offsuit is killed. We eliminated town but at the end of the day, Ralph was not on the town elim wagon and was voting for scum. This means for Ralph to be scum he would have to be bussing DDL from D1. Titus, Looter, and JV were all in support of the town elimination that day.

D2 scum DDL is killed. Ralph continued to maintain his vote on DDL and was on the wagon for the scum elim. Scum team shelly and Flake were on the wagon, along with Ralph, Looter, and JV. Titus was voting for me.

This seems to indicate there is probably two town in Ralph, Looter, and JV as all 4 scum partners voting for their fifth teammate it very unlikely.

Because I am town, and there are probably two town in Ralph, Looter, and JV, this shades Titus pretty seriously.[/b]

D3 we killed town NPOM. Ralph did not have a vote at the elim. JV, Looter, and Titus were all on NPOM for his town flip and one of them has to be scum. Why was Ralph not on board with the town elim D3 if he is scum, especially after voting scum at the end of the day both D1 and D2? Ralph has an excellent voting record so far as scummy as he is.

D4 Titus was not a part of the scum shelly lunch but instead was voting for A50 at the time of the elim. JV and Looter were on the wagon though to lunch shelly. With only three alive that day (shelly, ???, and ???), it is unlikely that both scum partners were voting shelly at the end of the day suggesting there MUST be one town between JV and Looter.

D5 I voted off town!Norway with JV and Titus. With only 2 scum left in the game and 5 to eliminate, it is most likely that one of the two remaining scum were on the Norway wagon, indicating there is one scum between JV and Titus.

D6 is not really helpful at this point as everyone voted for no lunch except JV voting for Ralph which doesn’t help us either.

Based on D2 alone: Ralph, Looter, and JV all have 33% chance of being town
Based on D4 alone: JV and Looter both have a 50% chance of being town.
Based on D1-D3 Ralph’s voting record is very towny but there is no information available to actually give a percentage boost on that.
Based on D3, JV, Looter, and Titus all have a 33% chance of being scum. But with JV and Looter having a 50% chance of being town from D4, Titus’s 33% chance really stands out as Titus has no voting record to boost her town percentage.
Based on D5 alone: JV and Titus share a 50% chance of being scum each.

That last paragraph is sloppy but I’m about to start working on a table of percentages. Posting it soon.

[Glitch]

That's a great point and I hadn't put those together yet.

Which one were you replying to?

That there's no way it's Looter and Titus.