That resonates with me. I think what you're saying is: If there is a Tracker, there is a Mafia Roleblocker (A2) in which case they would have likely blocked shelly and let us kill her D2 instead of nightkilling her. Is that right?
Why would the scum team murder shelly in A2 on night 1 instead of blocking and getting a free kill elsewhere?
In post 854, Satisfaction wrote:Why would the scum team murder shelly in A2 on night 1 instead of blocking and getting a free kill elsewhere?
Was there a better kill?
Shellyc was near-confirmed town at that point. There was a tracker, so only you could have CC'ed(due to your shading). Everyone else would have been eliminated. FN is a terrible fakeclaim, so that wasn't possible.
Not killing shellyc runs the risk of conftown if the Mafia Roleblocker is eliminated.
It also de-facto confirms the tracker as town(why else would they be kept alive).
No, I was wondering why the JK wasn't the target of the nightkill AND the roleblock, so either the killer was confident that they wouldnt get blocked or I got blocked by the JK himself.
In post 849, Not Known 15 wrote:BS. If they survive that one you pocket them(and because of the nature of the pocket it is less likely to be caught), else you get a miselim. Win-win.
...while not bothering slots who are actually going to be alive later in the game?
sure, seems like a good use of my limited energy. pfffft
In post 824, Satisfaction wrote:I just remembered something else from my dive into shelly last night. Shelly flip flopped around on her feelings about TW. She was considering other people and potential pairs. At the time I saw it as her just listing names and it didn’t seem sincere to me. In hindsight, she was actually hunting in her own way.
On the flip side, though, TW was more locked on and confident that shelly was scum. Also we never really got a volunteered “here’s what happened yesterday from my perspective” from TW. It seems to me that would be a town move for somebody so invested in that fight.
I know I was super discouraged and considering subbing out at dawn today because I felt so dumb. Buuuuut we all kind of glossed over that TW was wrong too.
I want to townread TW and I have for most of the game. He’s helpful. Willing to jump on wagons and make things happen. Seems to give a sincere effort to share opinions.
@TW do you feel like you addressed this somewhere and I’m being unfair? (Mobile right now, working from memory). If not, why? I wouldn’t expect you to be as distraught about it as I was, but still we look a little silly.
I felt sincere about shelly being scum. So did you. She was using skills from her scum toolkit. You saw it too. Our failure to evaluate in time is a towntell, not a scumtell.
Arthur was scummy and responded to being wagoned by....not progressing his reads, and complaining that people were posting too much. That kind of player with a town role pm is a distraction and needs to die before endgame. I don't regret that elim.
D1/N1ended with both of the slots I thought were scum flipping green. Why would I hark on about where I went wrong during the middle of a game when I have 6 people to sort? I like re-evaluation and self-awareness but that feels like a colossal waste of time.
Scum with a roleblocker are not incentivised to kill the jailkeeper on night one. If their roleblocker dies, the tracker is a de facto alignment cop and the jailkeeper is stronger than a cop. It's in their best interest to only shoot the claimed tpr and hunt for the unclaimed one.
What's more, roleblocking off the jailkeeper is utterly insane because it stops them from making the NK. If they shoot at anyone else, the jk has a 2/7 chance of stopping the NK.
It's a shot from a column C scumteam about 55-60% of the time but expecting us to believe he was roleblocked n1 is well below that 40-45% probability range. This is a scum fakeclaim misplay. Simple as that.
I can't tell if I'm still dizzy or if it just feels really weird advocating for an elim on a claimed tpr in a newbie game but I also don't think I'm wrong. can people please fact check me on this
I think the scenario Not Known is describing looks like this:
Shelly claims JK
Arthur flips green.
Shelly gets blocked by the Roleblocker so she can't luck into jailing her would-be killer.
Tracker!NK tracks me--his top scum read. He doesn't need to track Shelly because there was no counterclaim and he knows the setup includes JK.
Shelly puts Tracker!NK in jail blocking him. NK reminded her that she was the likely night kill target so she would have to lock up scum to save herself. TW was her obvious scum read so scum!TW probably wouldn't make the deathblow, so she went for another.
Shelly gets stabbed.
Is this the scenario you are commenting on @TW?
I think you're right, I'm just trying to follow this all the way out to make sure.
I think there's decent odds that this is a fakeclaim that just got a bit too greedy with trying to deny town info (says it was blocked to limit town knowledge)?
Jailkeeper + Tracker implies that there is a Roleblocker. The world in which the Roleblocker
doesn't
target the Jailkeeper is... really exceptionally greedy by scum. The world where shelly successfully blocks the kill at night is basically auto-lose for scum. Small chances of
instantly losing
are generally not worth taking. So we assume that in this world Roleblocker blocks shelly... but then there's nobody to block NK15 on Night 1.
