Mini 2167: Illicit Substances Mafia (Game Over!)


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Post Post #6125 (ISO) » Thu Oct 15, 2020 7:37 pm

Post by April Ludgate »

In post 156, PlusJOYED wrote:i love touhou so im TRing remilla until further notice
In post 213, Something_Smart wrote:I mean, I didn't mention it before because I didn't find it significant, but there is a nonzero chance that was an awkward scum attempt to avoid saying "Nothing."
I think this is worth noting.

Remelia tinfoil, but i just trust them so much right now, it’s gonna be shattering if they are scum.
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Post Post #6126 (ISO) » Thu Oct 15, 2020 7:39 pm

Post by April Ludgate »

Actually, Morph trying to target SS early might be telling that Morph was paranoid of SS. Then on top of SS talk on Plus, and the ability to break up the SS-AL connection, Morph has every reason to kill SS who they probably believe has the best chance at catching them, because you know they just brushed me aside, lol
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Post Post #6127 (ISO) » Thu Oct 15, 2020 7:53 pm

Post by April Ludgate »

In post 4017, Something_Smart wrote:I'm gonna check out +Joyed overnight, and see if I can't get anything a little more clear-cut than I currently have on him (which is not much).
Nah, this is why SS died, I already went down this rabbit hole yesterday, this is why I went Plus. I think I emptied the SS reserve of information. I’d give that heavy assist to SS getting Plus yesterday then.
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Post Post #6128 (ISO) » Thu Oct 15, 2020 8:04 pm

Post by April Ludgate »

In post 1059, zMuffinMan wrote:what an awful read. it's funny, because i think you were doing pretty well until you started suspecting me and bork hydra
In post 1072, zMuffinMan wrote:it's awful because you clearly have no ability to read the intention behind any of my posts so you come to incorrect conclusions

people can be wrong and not awful; for example, i think bell thinking my attack on morph was bad is wrong but not awful

youre trying to dissect my posts in a way that shows a complete inability to read intent, tone, etc

that's what makes it awful
In post 1099, zMuffinMan wrote:april, the fact that you even mistook the FoS vote as a serious vote shows you don't have the ability to discern when i'm saying something in jest and when i'm being serious about something, which means i already know you're off base in being able to read my tone - it doesn't matter if you took that back. the fact that you thought me asking whether a potential RVS vote on fferycabd was serious might have meant i was trying to discredit them on page 3 and the fact that you agreed with plusjoyed's wall on me tells me you have zero idea how to read the intent behind my posts - also the mistake you made with thinking i was defending alisae, even if you also took that back, compounds this

and the fact that you're clearly misreading the intent behind me pointing out your read is awful also compounds this
In post 1100, zMuffinMan wrote:you know what the difference between you and plusjoyed is? i thought you were doing ok until you started veering off

that's also what makes it particularly awful

sad
Zmuffin has also been pushing me down heavily. Interesting.

Plus was trying to keep me as a close town pocket, which makes sense that the other scum members would be against me.
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Post Post #6129 (ISO) » Thu Oct 15, 2020 8:08 pm

Post by April Ludgate »

In post 1168, April Ludgate wrote:My
town[/b] successful bait block is Morph, SS, Bell, Plus.

Glad this worked. I was able to figure out pretty nicely that Plus was scum on Day 2.
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Post Post #6130 (ISO) » Thu Oct 15, 2020 8:31 pm

Post by April Ludgate »

In post 6129, April Ludgate wrote:
In post 1168, April Ludgate wrote:My
town[/b] successful bait block is Morph, SS, Bell, Plus.

Glad this worked. I was able to figure out pretty nicely that Plus was scum on Day 2.

Not just me, of course.
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Post Post #6131 (ISO) » Thu Oct 15, 2020 8:34 pm

Post by April Ludgate »

In post 5247, April Ludgate wrote:
In post 5238, PlusJOYED wrote:one of remi, maid, april, or 420 pretty much has to be scum
This is not true, by the way. There are plenty of possible teams without any.

Not ones that Plus will like, but I do think Plus is scum at this point.

WIFOM debate.
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Post Post #6132 (ISO) » Thu Oct 15, 2020 8:45 pm

Post by April Ludgate »

In post 4779, April Ludgate wrote:Well, I'm going to go off gut reads now.

ST and Remelia i'm seeing as much townier lately. 420 could be scum, I guess, same with Maid.

Morph's scumming it up, though, but might be because I think their playstyle is sooooo absurdly slow paced.

Morph, Zmuffin, Plusjoyed is my tinfoil solve.
In post 4782, morph the cat wrote:
In post 4779, April Ludgate wrote:Well, I'm going to go off gut reads now.

ST and Remelia i'm seeing as much townier lately. 420 could be scum, I guess, same with Maid.

Morph's scumming it up, though, but might be because I think their playstyle is sooooo absurdly slow paced.

Morph, Zmuffin, Plusjoyed is my tinfoil solve.
This is why my default setting with you is no cooperation. You have no fucking idea how to read us. So why should I think you are competent to read anyone else in this game, given you spin like a top from solve to solve solve.
In post 4789, zMuffinMan wrote:i am half expecting april reaches lylo, "solves" the game, votes town, but the only thing april remembers about this game is that at one point he called the scum team and that makes him good at solving

i fully expect to find a similar pattern in past games from april if i could be bothered looking into them
In post 4790, morph the cat wrote:
In post 4784, April Ludgate wrote:
In post 4781, morph the cat wrote:I was wondering how long it'd take you to go back there.
it's been there, i just didnt feel like dealing with it today, and it's just much better to assume town since everyone else is.

Which 100% gives that 5 person POE extreme likelihood of being the actual solve. Even if it isn't, the possibility of there not being at least 2 scum in the 5 is just beyond great odds.
Don't bother to flip again then.
In post 4794, zMuffinMan wrote:that's not something i'd be proud of rofl
If Morph/Zmuffin, then I got it correct with this tinfoil. Look how they came and both instantly attacked me.

After thinking about it, this entire game has been back and forth first Morph coming at me, then Zmuffin. They’re like tagging in and out to keep me down.
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Post Post #6133 (ISO) » Thu Oct 15, 2020 8:46 pm

Post by April Ludgate »

Which also makes sense considering Plus was right up next to me for so long. In theory, if Plus flipped, it would pair Plus and I up a bit, but I hard turned on Plus, and muffin/Morph werent able to keep that strain going.

@Remelia - why do you think Zmuffin is scum?
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Post Post #6134 (ISO) » Thu Oct 15, 2020 8:51 pm

Post by April Ludgate »

Spoiler:
In post 4285, April Ludgate wrote:Exactly.

That’s my read on Morph.

:lol:

Yo, Morph, I hope you are town and see that I’m obv town this game as well. If we get on the same page, then like...this game’s done.

If Bell thinks Midwaybear town told, I’m willing to go with that.

Secret Tunnel, PlusJoyed, Zmuffin scum team. This game’s over. :lol:
In post 4286, April Ludgate wrote:Look at how Plus, ST, Zmuffin are posting about each other right now too.

They’re carefully distancing from each other.
In post 4287, April Ludgate wrote:Sorry, Plus. I think you did well, for what it’s worth.

I just think Remelia doesn’t make as much sense as scum as you do here.
In post 4293, zMuffinMan wrote:i don't even think plusjoyed is scum so hard to really 'distance' from that

but also i don't distance as scum

distance not. bus or bus not. there is no distance
In post 4295, PlusJOYED wrote:
In post 4292, April Ludgate wrote:
In post 4073, zMuffinMan wrote:delaying the action makes no sense unless they can continue doing that indefinitely

like if mariaboy is town, what does delaying it a single day do?

i guess maybe one day closer to lylo or something? eh. not like it makes a diff really?
I feel like they mentioned there was a delay?

I think they target someone at night, and they blow up at day end or after the timer? Idk.

It probably ends the day if it’s the timer.
they said they'd blow up at the start of the day cause they were frustrated. i don't think this is part of their ability
In post 4296, zMuffinMan wrote:they did indeed say theyd do it straight away and i kinda figured that implied it wouldnt end the day so that is why we are playing the waiting game


It looks like I’ve had Plus and Muffin paired up a lot. ST was with them a lot as well, so I guess there’s the chance I’m wrong, and that’s a possibility for team. I also found a couple TMI posts by Plus and Maid, so I could believe the team is Muffin/Plus/Maid.
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Post Post #6135 (ISO) » Thu Oct 15, 2020 9:02 pm

Post by April Ludgate »

In post 4625, April Ludgate wrote:Zmuffinbear, Plus, Remelia, 420, Secret Tunnel

3 of these are scum unless Morph is scum, then 2 of these are.

If you trust I'm town, this is literally the case. I know that I am town, so I know that this is the case.
I have said all game pretty much I think exactly 1 of Plus and Remelia were scum, 420 got a protect. I just wanna say Maid is town, i really can’t get past the idea of how entirely terrible this would be if Maid is scum here. Like, what if we had hit scum day 1 and 2?

So it’s Zmuffin and ST or Zmuffin and Morph.

In post 4622, zMuffinMan wrote:in before april says im frankensteining him or cookiemonstering him or something
This is important because Plus is the one I told that was “warlocking” me, and Zmuffin here brought up silly things like this, which is yet again a discredit attempt on someone pushing them as scum and super suspicious on partner Plus as well. This is exactly how scum should act if I nail their partner and them in this way. Zmuffin has been stating i had terrible and bad reads, when Plus was one of my main components, alongside Zmuffin.

In post 4609, midwaybear wrote:It doesn't seem like April is doing all of this for post game cred. It just seems like they are constantly shifting their reads with each post in thread even if it means bouncing around a lot. Seems really hard to fake as scum even though I know that he is a great scum player.

I also really like this post for townMidway in this area, so even midway sees that Zmuffin is posting things that isn’t what it looks like. Bell also stated that Zmuffin is a puppet master scum, which the entire discredit play by them onto me legit looks like it is happening, especially around the time I was pushing Plus, and remember, there was Plus vs Zmuffin, so this is actually a really scum motivated hatchet plan on me. I was pushing their partner, so they hatcheted me, discrediting me, chopping me down from the bottom to keep me from growing.
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Post Post #6136 (ISO) » Thu Oct 15, 2020 9:03 pm

Post by April Ludgate »

You know what...

It’s Zmuffin and 420.

Zmuffin No Killed gambit because they expected me to target them, so if I died, and was the only death, they could help clear 420 because they could push his protect more.

Zmuffin is also trying to no fade with a plan of “420 targeting April. Let’s see what happens.” Mindset.

It’s Zmuffin and 420.
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Post Post #6137 (ISO) » Thu Oct 15, 2020 9:05 pm

Post by April Ludgate »

Wait, my action didn’t go through.

Either way, Zmuffin is likely scum no matter what way you look at it. Zmuffin/Morph, Zmuffin/420, or Zmuffin/ST.

I don’t see any other possibilities.
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Post Post #6138 (ISO) » Thu Oct 15, 2020 9:10 pm

Post by April Ludgate »

We fade in there today, we have 420 protect me in case he is town, and then we essentially can get an auto clear. If there’s ever only 1 death, and it’s me, whoever I target is scum who tried to get out of it because we will be actively stating 420 is targeting me, which also hinders scum420. This gives us a free conf townie or a caught scum no matter what.
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Post Post #6139 (ISO) » Thu Oct 15, 2020 9:30 pm

Post by April Ludgate »

In post 5993, zMuffinMan wrote:im not ascetic

the obvious thing to do here is go directly to N3,
420 on april,
april on me, see what happens
(after 420 checks in and mariaboy are given time to make the asplosion go kaboom)

there's not enough town power to justify a full role blocker here especially given the role cop was 1-shot
In post 6033, zMuffinMan wrote:btw full disclaimer: i should admit that one of the reasons i wanna
go straight to N3 here
is to
make april kill himself if he's town
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Post Post #6140 (ISO) » Thu Oct 15, 2020 9:35 pm

Post by April Ludgate »

In post 5984, zMuffinMan wrote:we're at evens and i doubt scum have more than a 1-shot role block given (the lack of) town power. and i wanna see if the mariaboy thing persists

and you cant even die if 420 is town

just target me again

easy
ah, i understand.

Zmuffin is scum possibly misunderstanding the role. I will die from my Weak modifier even if I am doctored if I hit scum.

My best bets are Zmuffin/420 and Zmuffin/Morph. Again, ST is possible, but I would go in that order right now.
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Post Post #6141 (ISO) » Thu Oct 15, 2020 9:45 pm

Post by April Ludgate »

In post 2629, 420 Blaze It wrote:+'s reasons for pushing me are pretty bad. It's fine if it's policy and all, but saying the apathy/not caring has to come from scum is disingenuous

VOTE: +
In post 4482, 420 Blaze It wrote:yeah, I'm a Unconditional Love, a Town-Aligned Conditional White Mage.

my ability is Hope Is A Hell Of A Drug where I can target someone every other night to protect them for the next two nights

I am also town, apparently
In post 4484, 420 Blaze It wrote:oh wait hope drug thing is me being town aligned. True Affection Floats is the name of the ability
Actually, these look kinda anti associations, and I generally do like that mess up, and they seem like not caring town.
In post 5044, 420 Blaze It wrote:Why can't that exist with mine? I guess that's like an IC but you have to survive till eLo to pull it off. Oh I guess you have to get scum to hammer too so more risk reward since it's gg if you get a town to do it

UNVOTE: Remilia

they unvoted remelia here after Rem claimed, and I don't necessarily understand why Rem thought they couldn't exist. We hadn't mass claimed yet, and our small amount of PR's makes me decently happy about it. Especially considering scum are confirmed to have an Ascetic or Roleblocker now.

In post 5270, 420 Blaze It wrote:VOTE: Plus

honestly could flip scum for his continuation tunnel on me being the easiest stance or thing to pursue in the game. also i'm weirdly afraid that people think i'm scum eith him if he doesn't dlip scum so lest not have any of that
they dropped a vote on Plus pretty easily.

And they specifically mentioned that they are afraid of people thinking they are scum with Plus, I actually think this is super townie. Yeah, I think I'm happy with 420 town, and the role does make sense here. I'll look over Prism in a second, but yeah.
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Post Post #6142 (ISO) » Thu Oct 15, 2020 10:10 pm

Post by zMuffinMan »

ah right now i remember why i was ignoring you

back to doing that
spiffeh spiffeh spiffeh spiffeh spiffeh spiffeh spiffeh spiffeh spiffeh spiffeh spiffeh spiffeh spiffeh spiffeh spiffeh spiffeh spiffeh spiffeh spiffeh spiffeh spiffeh spiffeh spiffeh spiffeh spiffeh spiffeh spiffeh spiffeh spiffeh spiffeh spiffeh spiffeh spiffeh spiffeh spiffeh spiffeh spiffeh spiffeh spiffeh spiffeh spiffeh spiffeh spiffeh spiffeh spiffeh spiffeh spiffeh spiffeh spiffeh spiffeh
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Post Post #6143 (ISO) » Thu Oct 15, 2020 10:19 pm

Post by April Ludgate »

Day 1 Some VC's

Spoiler:
VC 1.9
420 Blaze It (4): MariaR,
plusJOYED
,
The Bulge, April Ludgate

Alisae
(2): 420 Blaze It, Bell
plusJOYED
(1): Remilia Scarlet
secret tunnel (1): midway bear
mariaR (1): secret tunnel

Not Voting (4): zMuffinMan,
Alisae, Something_Smart
, morph the cat


VC 1.11
Alisae
(3):
April Ludgate
, bell,
plusJOYED

plusJOYED
(3):
Alisae
, Remilia Scarlet, 420 Blaze It
420 Blaze It (1): Maid cafe
secret tunnel (1): midway bear
maid cafe (1): secret tunnel
April Ludgate (1): The Bulge



Not Voting (3): zMuffinMan,
Something_Smart
, morph the cat
,



VC 1.13
Alisae (5): April Ludgate,
bell,
plusJOYED
, midwaybear, Maid Cafe (R-2)
plusJOYED
(2):
Alisae,
420 Blaze It
maid cafe (1): secret tunnel

Not Voting (5): zMuffinMan,
Something_Smart
, morph the cat,
The Bulge
, Remilia Scarlet


VC 1.15
maid cafe (4): secret tunnel, morph the cat,
alisae
, remilia scarlet
Alisae (4): April Ludgate
, bell,
plusJOYED
, Maid Cafe
plusJOYED
(1): 420 Blaze It



Not Voting (4): zMuffinMan,
Something_Smart, The Bulge
, midwaybear


VC 1.16 END DAY
Alisae (7): April Ludgate,
bell,
plusJOYED
, 420 Blaze It, remilia scarlet, morph the cat, Maid Cafe
maid cafe (1): secret tunnel
420 Blaze It (1): midwaybear
Something_Smart (1): The Bulge



Not Voting (3): zMuffinMan,
Something_Smart, alisae


420 was voting scum in VC 1.11 until 1.15, and then moved followed by Remelia/Morph, and this was deadline votes.

It's interesting to note that Midwaybear was voting Alisae, Morph put Alisae to F-1, and then Midway unvoted, all in between vote counts. I also believe the Maid Cafe wagon in 1.15 has scum in it, and that would likely be Morph picking the other side that Plus picked, while other scum Zmuffin stayed off.

The final day vote count likely has 2 scum on, 1 scum off, also fits with Morph/Muffin.


Day 2 Some VC's

Spoiler:
VC 2.4
420 Blaze It (4): Bell, midwaybear,
April Ludgate,
plusJOYED
(R-2)
April Ludgate (1): Secret Tunnel


Not Voting (5):
The Bulge
, morph the cat, zMuffinMan, Remilia Scarlet, 420 Blaze It


VC 2.7
420 Blaze It (2):
plusJOYED
, Remilia Scarlet
zmuffinman (2):
April Ludgate,
secret tunnel
plusJOYED
(1): morph the cat
secret tunnel (1): bell

Not Voting (4):
The Bulge
, zMuffinMan, 420 Blaze It, midwaybear


VC 2.9
plusJOYED
(4): morph the cat,
April Ludgate
, Remilia Scarlet, 420 Blaze It (R-2)
420 Blaze It (1):
plusJOYED

zmuffinman (1): secret tunnel
secret tunnel (1): bell

Not Voting (3):
The Bulge
, zMuffinMan, midwaybear


VC 2.10
plusJOYED
(5): morph the cat,
April Ludgate
, Remilia Scarlet, 420 Blaze It, bell (R-1)
420 Blaze It (1):
plusJOYED

zmuffinman (1): secret tunnel

Not Voting (3):
The Bulge
, zMuffinMan, midwaybear


VC 2.11
plusJOYED
(4):
April Ludgate
, Remilia Scarlet, 420 Blaze It, bell (R-2)
420 Blaze It (1):
plusJOYED

zmuffinman (1): secret tunnel


Not Voting (4):
The Bulge
, zMuffinMan, midwaybear, morph the cat


VC 2.12
420 Blaze It (3):
plusJOYED
,
April Ludgate
, morph the cat
plusJOYED
(2): Remilia Scarlet, 420 Blaze It,
zmuffinman (1): secret tunnel


Not Voting (4}:
The Bulge
, zMuffinMan, midway bear, Bell


VC 2.14
plusJOYED
(4): Remilia Scarlet, 420 Blaze It, morph the cat,
April Ludgate
(R-2)
420 Blaze It (1):
plusJOYED

zmuffinman (1): secret tunnel


Not Voting (4}:
The Bulge
, zMuffinMan, midway bear, bell


VC 2.16 END DAY
plusJOYED
(6): Remilia Scarlet, 420 Blaze It, morph the cat,
April Ludgate
, zmuffinman, midwaybear (Sent to Rehab)
420 Blaze It (1):
plusJOYED

zmuffinman (1): secret tunnel


Not Voting (2}:
The Bulge
, bell


VC 2.9-VC 2.11, then the VC 2.16 highly indicates Morph scum. There was a strong back and forth, and the day pretty much changed and I feel it's because scum stopped trying to stop the Plus wagon and just went with it, so I believe both scum are on the 2.16 Plus wagon.

VC 2.12 seems like Morph's attempt to get 420 killed instead of Plus, and that was essentially Morph's turn on 420 temporarily.

Mid way bear was on the early 420 wagon, but didnt join anywhere else. Zmuffin and Midway both jumped at the end after spending the majority of the day not voting.
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Post Post #6144 (ISO) » Thu Oct 15, 2020 10:22 pm

Post by April Ludgate »

Both fades weren't able to go through until Morph threw down a vote, which is scum obstructing and not allowing defenses to get past unless they want it too. Zmuffin is perfectly setup to come in and tear me down every single time I started pushing in the right direction. Morph would control gamestate a lot as well.
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Post Post #6145 (ISO) » Thu Oct 15, 2020 10:27 pm

Post by April Ludgate »

If you notice when Alisae and plus are the biggest wagons, Morph moves momentum over to Maid Cafe, and it ends up being Alisae vs Maid and Plus ends up in the clear.

I think VCA also makes Morph scum in addition all the other reasons stated, like me targeting them last night. the overreactions. Them being ready for the 1v1.

These reasons separately aren't damning, but all of them together, Morph is just scum.
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Post Post #6146 (ISO) » Thu Oct 15, 2020 10:29 pm

Post by April Ludgate »

2.16 makes ST and Bell incredibly unlikely to be the scum team in any world. I'm happy taking that completely out of consideration.
Time Is Money, Money Is Power, Power Is Pizza, Pizza is Knowledge
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April Ludgate
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April Ludgate
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Post Post #6147 (ISO) » Thu Oct 15, 2020 10:35 pm

Post by April Ludgate »

1.16 with likely having scum on the alisae wagon other than Plus also indicates ST/Muffin not being a team.

So I believe, that unless something weird happened with Remelia/Bell/Midwaybear, Morph and Muffin are the team. I'll stop posting for now, but I really wanted to do some deep dive and analysis work to show my thought process through everything, and to make sure I wasn't missing anything.
Time Is Money, Money Is Power, Power Is Pizza, Pizza is Knowledge
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Post Post #6148 (ISO) » Thu Oct 15, 2020 10:45 pm

Post by April Ludgate »

In post 5275, Bell wrote:
In post 5269, April Ludgate wrote:I’m gonna target Bell if Plus is town.

I’m gonna target Zmuffin if Plus is scum.
Plz don't.
In post 5277, Bell wrote:@Apiril target Morph, muffin, Rem or ST.

Just trust that you're read of me is accurate.
sorry, last thing until people post. I think this is extreme anti Bell/Plus associations. I said I target Bell if plus is town, and zmuffin if plus is scum. they say Plz dont, then go ahead to ask me to target within a group, one of which is Zmuffin, and if Bell was scum with Plus, they would have instantly knew zmuffin would have been my target, hwever they then put Zmuffin in the POE group to target, which means Bell clearly saw the chance of Plus flipping town. Okay, bye!!
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Post Post #6149 (ISO) » Fri Oct 16, 2020 1:37 am

Post by Bell »

Busy today. Try not to do anything ~too crazy~

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