Mini Normal 2168 | So Many Bats! | Game Over!

[shellyc]

@Mod: going to be V/LA for the next 48 hours

[Morning Tweet]

@Mod: going to be V/LA for the next 48 hours

Got it!

[Morning Tweet]

VC 4.3

Bat Fact #24:

I really like bats.

EXILE STATUS

[2] duppin:

shellyc, PlusJOYED

[4] Not Voting:

duppin, davesaz, Hectic, UNOwen

With 6 still flying around the place, it takes 4 votes to ground someone.

The Day 4 deadline is in:

(expired on 2020-10-19 00:35:00)

Mod Notes:

shellyc is V/LA until 10/19

[/mech]

[shellyc]

good job plus

im just going to fix the solve as hectic/duppin

n3 tracker and 2s commuter cannot co-exist, but lets think about this
RS is one of the strongest TPRs
weak FN is self confirmable and generates alignment results
Informed GS is a pretty strong investigtative
and when you add 2s commuter (which basically cannot die at night if used well) to it it's too much town protective power for one (unless there's something like a full strongman but commuter beats strongman) and quite townsided

imagine that setup but with n3 tracker. for one, n3 tracker is possibly dying before the shot is used up, and all the PRs visit here giving ample opportunity for false guilties. I would say its a much more balanced setup.

hectic's claim does not make sense even if I did not exist

@UNO literally you're the one that's being pocketed. misplay doesn't mean scum. look back across the game, no way I am partnered with noraa for one. read my ISO and I've actually been solving instead of hectic who powerwolf'd d1 and dipped off afterwards, and duppin who was heavily sussed by town!taylor.

duppin tells ODJ to stop self voting or else policy which is cheap distancing, and gets both ODJ and duppin cred because 1) duppin asked people to stop playing anti-town (note the word anti-town because it's not real scumhunting) and 2) ODJ starts playing normally

duppin stays with a broad TR on hectic and the moment I start pushing duppin and guiltying them they suddenly throw some shade at hectic because they know they're going down

hectic, however, is locktown on duppin and lockscum on me, which is trying to push the elim through. as I said before as town lylo/mylo is a very high pressure moment when you may lose the game, so this attempt by hectic to elim in {me/duppin} today and no elim tmr despite not being in the 1v1 really pings.

hectic is also very good scum and can capitualise on my misplays as n3 tracker. I could have easily guiltied lurker!dave for the easy win if I was scum or could have guiltied plus following my trajectories throughout the game.

[shellyc]

there is no scum intent for going against the world and committing political suicide
there is no scum intent for guiltying duppin. im claiming this because I do have an incriminating result on them.
there is no scum intent for question marking plus for the mundi vote yet now labelling them as tstbs.

I'll be gone y'all better finish off duppin here

[shellyc]

sighhhh we basically UTR'd hectic for being quite active and giving reads d1

im pretty disappointed in myself for just binning hectic as town

[shellyc]

Another thing: hectic pointed out Norway’s check on bugspray making bugs near conftown which makes no sense from a commuter perspective as a commuter would want to eat the nightkill

Commuter is wayyy too strong here. Even if gated. If the GS visits the commuter and receives no result, with the knowledge of Mafia doctor they know that it is unlikely to have scum ascetic or RS because that’s too much scum power, confirming the commuter as town.
If the FN visits commuter it’s still a clear + FN is self provable anyways so not receiving the FN message does not impact
Role stopper visiting Commuter doesn’t cause anything.
RS is a very strong protective, commuter cannot die at night if activated so usually has some drawback (such as investigations failing) but there’s no drawback here

[duppin]

i genuinely think it should be obvious that this was a pretty poor fake claim, there is so much inconsistency and just straight up bad logic.

anyway the problem with this game is that no matter what plus alignment is, the game is pretty much already lost. he said he would iso dive and revaluate but i dont believe he has and i am unsure if he is going to, so plus if you are town then it's really honestly a bit shitty of you to not put in at least some effort (like not knowing who replaced who in mylo) and lose the game for town simply because you couldnt be bothered. if you are scum then fair enough

but yes no matter what his alignment is the game is most likely lost because at this point because im pretty sure both hectic and uno are just town at this point meaning that we would have 3 votes on shelly, plus and shelly are voting on me and that leaves us with davesaz who still hasn't taken a stance for some reason (?), but if plus is town then its just shelly + dave in which case its going to be tied at 3-3, tomorrow they kill one of uno/hectic and i get limmed

if davesaz is town then there should still be a chance for us to lim shelly, but i think davesaz is way more likely to be scum at this point and plus is just a pocketed town

[duppin]

oh and

VOTE: shelly

[duppin]

I have a mechanical analysis of Shelly's claim, but it makes more sense to talk about it after massclaim. I don't want to take any risk at all that scum can use it to get an advantage.

this sounds a bit odd. since everyone has claimed now id like you to follow up on this

[UNOwen]

Another thing: hectic pointed out Norway’s check on bugspray making bugs near conftown which makes no sense from a commuter perspective as a commuter would want to eat the nightkill

Yep, there is no way Hectic commuted night 1 when three PRs had been outed so this looks really bad in light of claim.

[duppin]

Another thing: hectic pointed out Norway’s check on bugspray making bugs near conftown which makes no sense from a commuter perspective as a commuter would want to eat the nightkill

Yep, there is no way Hectic commuted night 1 when three PRs had been outed so this looks really bad in light of claim.

i am bit confused as to what you mean by this, are you suggesting hectic claimed to have commuted night 1?

[UNOwen]

i am bit confused as to what you mean by this, are you suggesting hectic claimed to have commuted night 1?

Hectic should have had no worries about surviving to day 4, so he had no reason to out bugspray as the likely gunsmith clear. Doing that points the scum kill away from himself which is the opposite of what his role is useful for. If he commuted night 1 + 2 it is more understandable but also not credible.

[duppin]

i am bit confused as to what you mean by this, are you suggesting hectic claimed to have commuted night 1?

Hectic should have had no worries about surviving to day 4, so he had no reason to out bugspray as the likely gunsmith clear. Doing that points the scum kill away from himself which is the opposite of what his role is useful for. If he commuted night 1 + 2 it is more understandable but also not credible.

ah i understand now, thats actually a good point and kind of related to the initial read i gave on hectic this day (that he pushed town on bugs to provide an explanation for why he would still be alive), however it is wifom and i believe he is town at this point

its also a possobility he is a 1-shot and used it day 2 and but is doing it to introduce wifom into the next night since shelly seemed to spew him as the kill (dont comment on this hectic)

[UNOwen]

ah i understand now, thats actually a good point and kind of related to the initial read i gave on hectic this day (that he pushed town on bugs to provide an explanation for why he would still be alive), however it is wifom and i believe he is town at this point

its also a possobility he is a 1-shot and used it day 2 and but is doing it to introduce wifom into the next night since shelly seemed to spew him as the kill (dont comment on this hectic)

Norwegian was still around on day 2 so while it is more plausible I don't really buy commuting then either.

There is not much need to introduce wifom because Hectic guaranteed he doesn't die tonight the moment he claimed X-shot commuter, regardless of how many charges he has. Which means it is exactly the move he had to make if scum, as otherwise whichever of me/Plus/dave is still around would question why scum!shelly doesn't just kill him and push an UNO/duppin team for victory.

[duppin]

ah i understand now, thats actually a good point and kind of related to the initial read i gave on hectic this day (that he pushed town on bugs to provide an explanation for why he would still be alive), however it is wifom and i believe he is town at this point

its also a possobility he is a 1-shot and used it day 2 and but is doing it to introduce wifom into the next night since shelly seemed to spew him as the kill (dont comment on this hectic)

Norwegian was still around on day 2 so while it is more plausible I don't really buy commuting then either.

There is not much need to introduce wifom because Hectic guaranteed he doesn't die tonight the moment he claimed X-shot commuter, regardless of how many charges he has. Which means it is exactly the move he had to make if scum, as otherwise whichever of me/Plus/dave is still around would question why scum!shelly doesn't just kill him and push an UNO/duppin team for victory.

not really true because if he is a 1-shot then the bugs comment could suggest he had already used his ability

[duppin]

anyway i can theorize all day long but ultimately i agree with the concern actually, however i know i am town and i know shelly is scum so i dont really care that much about solving his claim

[UNOwen]

not really true because if he is a 1-shot then the bugs comment could suggest he had already used his ability

The bugs comment suggests that either way. Shelly doesn't kill Hectic because him flipping X-shot commuter would

probably

be enough to convince the town in Plus/dave to at least reconsider.

[UNOwen]

It's tough, because on the one hand there's:

- dodgy dave stubbornly sitting on his hands the entire day
- Plus hammering without a claim twice and ending day 3 way too early
- shelly with an unconvincing and conveniently timed claim

Individually any one of them looks scummier to me than either duppin or Hectic but together there is no combination that satisfyingly explains how they've played today. Shelly sticking her neck out to save dave by going after duppin is a strange risk if that's the team, even stranger if it's Plus/shelly (which I doubt, but suppose is still possible).

On the other hand, duppin and Hectic are playing really clean games and there's not much I take issue with. But with how this day has gone I can totally see them making sense as a team.

[duppin]

not really true because if he is a 1-shot then the bugs comment could suggest he had already used his ability

The bugs comment suggests that either way. Shelly doesn't kill Hectic because him flipping X-shot commuter would

probably

be enough to convince the town in Plus/dave to at least reconsider.

kind of - shelly had already tried to push the idea that hectic was the best kill for me which i called out so even before hectic claimed the kill on him could possibly backfire especially the way hectic aligned himself with me and pushed on shelly. You seem to be implying that the only reason for scum not to kill hectic as town tonight if we no lim is due to his claim

[duppin]

It's tough, because on the one hand there's:

- dodgy dave stubbornly sitting on his hands the entire day
- Plus hammering without a claim twice and ending day 3 way too early
- shelly with an unconvincing and conveniently timed claim

Individually any one of them looks scummier to me than either duppin or Hectic but together there is no combination that satisfyingly explains how they've played today. Shelly sticking her neck out to save dave by going after duppin is a strange risk if that's the team, even stranger if it's Plus/shelly (which I doubt, but suppose is still possible).

On the other hand, duppin and Hectic are playing really clean games and there's not much I take issue with. But with how this day has gone I can totally see them making sense as a team.

the issue is that if plus is town then this game is already lost and i dont really have a problem with that itself, but i have an issue with the lack of effort. he talks about iso diving, wanting to revaluate etc but hasn't done any of that yet still puts out a vote in mylo. I would lie if i said that it did not bother me a little because i think he is more likely to be town over dave

[UNOwen]

kind of - shelly had already tried to push the idea that hectic was the best kill for me which i called out so even before hectic claimed the kill on him could possibly backfire especially the way hectic aligned himself with me and pushed on shelly. You seem to be implying that the only reason for scum not to kill hectic as town tonight if we no lim is due to his claim

You're right that the Hectic kill might have been a risk anyway, but Plus at least seemed to be expecting it to happen even in the shelly town world.

[duppin]

also this is meaningless as i would probably claim this if i was scum as well, but id never look up my partners games and call them out for posting elsewhere. id also not try to push and justify a policy lim on them day 1, shelly mentioned before that i backed off and whatever but the only reason i backed off was because people were very opposed to it

[UNOwen]

the issue is that if plus is town then this game is already lost and i dont really have a problem with that itself, but i have an issue with the lack of effort. he talks about iso diving, wanting to revaluate etc but hasn't done any of that yet still puts out a vote in mylo. I would lie if i said that it did not bother me a little because i think he is more likely to be town over dave

I do agree here. Kind of expecting it to be me who will end up making the call, but if I die tonight and Plus is town I really hope he takes his time to consider his vote. Especially when dave is just floating around and not saying anything, even though this day is literally being dragged to deadline just to give him the chance to correct that.

[duppin]

kind of - shelly had already tried to push the idea that hectic was the best kill for me which i called out so even before hectic claimed the kill on him could possibly backfire especially the way hectic aligned himself with me and pushed on shelly. You seem to be implying that the only reason for scum not to kill hectic as town tonight if we no lim is due to his claim

You're right that the Hectic kill might have been a risk anyway, but Plus at least seemed to be expecting it to happen even in the shelly town world.

plus was pushing the idea very early on this day that if hectic survived then he would push him tomorrow because he would be the most likely partner, he didnt state for who but and didnt respond to when i asked him to elaborate but later kind of followed up on it and said he was the most likely partner for me. I initially thought his logic was a bti weird, but then when i realised he mixed up the replacements it made a bit more sense to me, but i am a bit troubled by him not revaluating associations after realising he messed up the replacements. So yeah ultimately i think he is lazy town or scum and at the moment i am leaning more towards the former because I think dave is more suspicious