Open 797: Bus Service [Game Over]

[Bingle]

I've tried having underscored before and they don't let you.

He's grandfathered in I believe. I think there was something about underscores breaking the forum search function and so they removed them from acceptable username characters. NM's been around hella fortnights, though.

[Bingle]

Nandor seems tinfoily in a town way.

@Man who is totally not a horse in disguise: If I wanted to read one slot for content, which slot would be the most important to get a feel for the game?

[Almost50]

Can we get like a summary of this for the more dumb of us?

Asking for a friend

.

Are you calling ME dumb??

[ManWithNoName]

@Man who is totally not a horse in disguise: If I wanted to read one slot for content, which slot would be the most important to get a feel for the game?

I'm also not a horse wizard, for the record.

I guess I'd have to say MiniVirgo. Unless you want top tier entertainment, I have been providing that. (The claim of top tier is subjective and not an assurance of any kind) I have posted a bit about the game.

[ManWithNoName]

Can we get like a summary of this for the more dumb of us?

Asking for a friend

.

Are you calling ME dumb??

No... I don't have friends, I just wanted to seem cool.

[Bingle]

Can we get like a summary of this for the more dumb of us? Asking for a friend.

Sure.

There's no truly breaking strategy, but there is a slight optimization.

At the beginning of each day every living player should make a post that says "If I am Bus Driver I drove X and Y. If I am cop I investigated Z and they were M." You can overlap your claims as much as you want, but you should try to keep them reasonable to what you would do if you were bus driver or cop.

Power roles should claim if:

It is the day before an elimination can potentially end the game.
They have been run up and are about to be eliminated.
A bus driver gets an innocent result (this means that they targeted X and Y and Y died, therefore X was the scumkill target and thus town).

Neither bus driver nor cop should publicly hint at their targets before the night, nor should we as a group try to target them. Bus driver should focus on being a vig because changing a kill is very much so positive utility.

The setup is within an expected win rate of 40-60% for town when simulated with random eliminations (probably closer to 60 than 40, although I don't remember what the numbers actually were and would have to dig through two years of mafia bullshit to find the program that gave me the numbers).

[Bingle]

Are you calling ME dumb??

Nah. That AP guy though, he's a moron.

[Bingle]

Interesting ISO. I'll have to come back to it with context. MV is mostly correct about setup information, and if anyone cares the setup has been run before, at least once.

[JohnnyFarrar]

I don't even get that double vote thing btw. What scum motivation is there to fake that? There's none. The second head just happened to RVS-vote the same person without realising their other head already did, which means nothing alignment-wise.

Uncoordinated Hydra scum both independently targeting someone like derp seems odd to me. Either he's bait or their partner and they didn't want it to seem like they were ignoring him

[MiniVirgo]

@Mod

, just a random question that popped into my head. Does scum have day-talk?

pedit: Mini get into a habit of doing "- Mini" lmfao or it's gonna trip everyone out.

- JV

Factional communication:

Each night

, you may talk with your partners

Oh epic Indidnt even see that anywhere

- JV

[MiniVirgo]

@Mod

, just a random question that popped into my head. Does scum have day-talk?

pedit: Mini get into a habit of doing "- Mini" lmfao or it's gonna trip everyone out.

- JV

Factional communication:

Each night

, you may talk with your partners

Bus Service replaces Sesq and Bingle replaces arachnidsGrip. Welcome!

That’s ironic as fuck lmfao
- JV

[MiniVirgo]

-shelly

why is this so hard

Nice sign from shelly here. I like the stylistic choice of signing the post right at the start. Ensures no one will miss it.

I think that's them correcting their last post where they forgot to put it lol

Oops, my shitpost:content ratio is going off the rails. GET IT TOGETHER, Bus Service, you need more content or they'll probably policy you.

Self-conscious

[MiniVirgo]

I'm all caught up. shelly is probtown, although I can see why MiniVirgo is seeing elements of her scum play. The confident solve in particular is one of the things that's a little iffy.
shelly, where did you get this sudden surge of confidence in your reads? In other town games, you're more hesitant and aware that you could be wrong.

VOTE: Bus Service

Too confusing a name to keep around

So is yours. How'd you get an underscore in your name?

Shift+-

NotShift+-Mafia

Nice

- JV

[MiniVirgo]

Subject: [Setup] Bus Service

Starting with scum strats:

Variable definitions:

n= # living players
x= # living scum

Spoiler: Strongman only

Scum swaps two town players. Shoots one to kill the other.

Percentage chance bus driver redirects kill to town: 2(n-x)/(n^2-n)
Percentage chance bus driver redirects kill to scum: 2x/(n^2-n)
Cop survival if unclaimed: (n-1)/n

Cop results always trustworthy.
If redirect successful, +1 conftown.
If redirect onto scum, +1 conftown, -1 scum.

Spoiler: Investigation Confusion only

Scum swaps scum and town and shoots their target directly.

Percentage chance bus driver redirects kill to town: 2(n-x)/(n^2-n)
Percentage chance bus driver redirects kill to scum: 2x/(n^2-n)
Percentage chance cop False Innocents: 1/n.
Percentage chance cop False Guilties: 1/n.

Diminishing return on cop results.
If redirect successful, +1 conftown.
If redirect onto scum, +1 conftown, -1 scum.

Spoiler: Both

Scum swaps scum and town, nightkills scum swap.

Percentage chance bus driver redirects kill to town: 2(n-x)/(n^2-n)
Percentage chance bus driver redirects kill to scum: 2x/(n^2-n)
Percentage chance cop False Innocents: 1/n
Percentage chance cop False Guilties: 0.
Percentage of Innocent results that are False: 1/(n-x)
Percentage of Guilty results that are False: 1/x

Diminishing return on cop innocents.
If redirect successful, +1 conftown -1 scum.
If redirect unsuccessful, +1 conftown -2 scum.

Cop claimed: Scum tries to kill cop, Busdriver can't generate additional innocents.
Busdriver claimed: Scum tries to kill Busdriver, Busdriver can't generate additional innocents.
Both claimed: Scum tries to kill Cop, Busdriver can't generate additional innocents.

Chance of successful protection:

n % To Scum To Town
4 67 17 50
5 50 10 40
6 40 7 33
7 33 5 29
8 28 4 25
9 25 3 22
10 22 2 20
11 20 2 18
12 18 2 17

Hypoclaim chance to out either PR without the other being outed is negligible.
Hypoclaim chance to out Bus Driver with the cop being outed doesn't matter, as the cop is the priority kill for scum.
Hypoclaim chance to out as not cop with Bus Driver claimed: 50% per individual per day.

Hypoclaim unlikely to get cop killed any earlier than not hypoclaiming, therefore all players should hypoclaim both cop and redirections.

Claims should happen on run up or on the day before LYLO.

My only concern with the setup now is that it looks like a win more setup (If mafia is winning, they're likely to continue winning, but if they lose one player their odds decrease dramatically.) Otherwise, this looks balanced.

I'm not gonna bother writing a program for expected win rates, because there's too many subjective values for them to actually mean anything important.

Oh so the setup has been done before? I tried mech-done-didding the game earlier but without math. But yeah I agree with your conclusion about hypo-claiming. I didn't understand all the math but I have trust uwu

- JV

[MiniVirgo]

Neither bus driver nor cop should publicly hint at their targets before the night, nor should we as a group try to target them. Bus driver should focus on being a vig because changing a kill is very much so positive utility.

Exactly what I've been saying, let the Cop choose their own targets.

- JV

[MiniVirgo]

I don't even get that double vote thing btw. What scum motivation is there to fake that? There's none. The second head just happened to RVS-vote the same person without realising their other head already did, which means nothing alignment-wise.

Uncoordinated Hydra scum both independently targeting someone like derp seems odd to me. Either he's bait or their partner and they didn't want it to seem like they were ignoring him

Honestly I read it as both individually wanted to distance from their partner and ended up linking more to them. Although we'd have to yeet shelly first to see if that logic holds any weight

- JV

[derp]

derp, do you have anything of note to actually say?

define "of note"

about the gamestate.

of course. i believe this is day 1

[derp]

i am sure u can all appreciate that this is a big day as i am finally able to live up to my predecessors name as i believe this is the first actual scum push on my beloved and obvious town slot

[derp]

VOTE: bus service/nandor the relentless/whatever his name is

[Nandor the Relentless]

Let's hear why, derpmeister

[derp]

the reason why i hydra'd with redados was to focus on laser-pointing the scum while letting redados obvtown
im the worst ever at obvtowning while redados is very good at it

-shelly

@shelly:

Why wasn't redados feeling this game?

i would also like to congratulate u with the worst question of the game so far

[Nandor the Relentless]

...right?

[derp]

Let's hear why, derpmeister

well my dear bus service i could be scum for a lot of reasons but it would certainly not be because i was bothered with getting flak and the fact that this was the angle u chose to pursue indicates a lazy and opportunistic reach. so the legendary and well behaved derpmeister has caught u and i am already looking forward to all of the compliments i will receive for my fantastic play. thank u town

[Nandor the Relentless]

Why have you been so cautious in takes this game? Do you have reads elsewhere?

[derp]

"oh i just so happen to scumread the leading wagon (?) who clearly doesnt care about defending himself so let me just try to make up a scumread"
unfortunately u cant fool me nandor the persistent