Newbie 2036 - Game Over

[hessian]

My gut says that Satisfaction is town.

I am neutral about everyone else, other than donkihott.

Being neutral on over half the player list at this point in the game (page 9) rubs me the wrong way. Can you share an update with us?

How do you feel about any of the evidence that supports Fred and Tay being spewed town? How do you feel about ORAM’s entrance?

I've been busy recently and haven't really had time to digest the new posts. So this post will be more stream-of-consciousness than usual.

First, back when I made that post, I felt that most players had been lurking to some degree (including Fredrick -- I didn't really get the sense that he was "hunting" despite his questions). If one person's lurking, then I scumread that person. But when there's lots of people lurking... then I feel pretty neutral about them. At any rate, I'm glad to see that the replacements are sparking new discussion!

I will say that some of donkihott's recent posts (#211, #229) give me town vibes. However, the reasons for my initial suspicion of him (the quick hammer, Marky Mark's defense of him) remain. At this point, I'm happy with my vote where it is, but would also be open to joining another wagon. The thing is, I'm not convinced by the current wagon on Gawr/ wiyvern. I went back and looked at 85 and 87. In 85, Marky Mark calls out Gawr, Tayl0r, Olivia, and Fredrick for lurking/ non-substantive posts. In 87, as noted, he doesn't bring up Gawr... but he also doesn't bring up Olivia. I'm not sure this is such a big tell.

I have tried to think about my biggest suspect in the case of town!donkihott. If donkihott is town, then I think that at the beginning of D2, scum should have either A) joined and stayed on the donkihott wagon, or B) held back on voting, while intending to hammer closer to the D2 deadline. In that case, I would townread Satisfaction and Tayl0r for joining and then leaving the wagon. That would leave Fredrick, Gawr/ wiyvern, and Olivia/ ORAM. I'll need to do more re-reading to figure out who I'd be most suspicious of in that case.

As for Tayl0r and Fredrick practically being "confirmed" town, I'd also have to look back at D1 (hopefully tomorrow).

I can see that ORAM has done a lot of his own thinking, which gives me a slight town-read on him for now. But as I said, I don't really agree with the case made against wiyvern. So my feelings towards ORAM may change when I find more time to process this argument.

[wiyvern]

i'm a vt

[Satisfaction]

VOTE: wiyvern

Thanks for subbing in. Catch you later.

[Micc]

Votecount 2.05

wiyvern (4) -

ORAM, Tayl0r Swift, Fredrick A Campbell, Satisfaction

donkihott (1) -

hessian

Not Voting (2) -

wiyvern, donkihott

With 7 players alive it takes 4 votes to eliminate.

An elimination has been achieved.

[Micc]

wiyvern has been eliminated Day 2. They were a

Vanilla Townie

.

It is now Night 2. The deadline for Night 2 is in (expired on 2020-10-29 21:20:00).

[Micc]

ORAM has been killed Night 2. He was a

Town Mason

.

It is now Day 3.

Votecount 3.0

Not Voting (5) -

Tayl0r Swift, hessian, Satisfaction, donkihott, Fredrick A Campbell

With 5 players alive it takes 3 votes to eliminate.

The deadline for Day 3 is in (expired on 2020-11-05 23:05:00).

[Fredrick A Campbell]

VOTE: donkihott

[Tayl0r Swift]

VOTE: donki

donki pls claim if you are a mason. everyone else, please dont hammer until donki has a chance to post.

[Tayl0r Swift]

its L-1 to be clear

[donkihott]

Sure, I'm Vanilla Townie.

VOTE: hessian

Let's get it over with.

[donkihott]

Good luck with the 50/50

[Fredrick A Campbell]

Sure, I'm Vanilla Townie.

VOTE: hessian

Let's get it over with.

@donkihott: would you respond to this please? If the beginning of 226 was meant to be the response, I’d prefer a direct statement about the post I’m talking about here if you don’t mind.

... I sus hessian ...

I know you do. Read hessian’s 34 and tell me if you think that seems like a post scum!hessian would have made.

While we're on the subject of tone, I wanted to add that this word choice (underlined by me) felt a bit off, kind of like a manufactured town-tell. I think "comes across as town" would have been much more natural wording...

When I first read this, it came across as mildly scummy (voting another player to avoid dying themselves) but the more I think about this, the more town-ish it seems as what he specifically said that he didn't want to die on D1. I mean this is page 1 so take all this with a bit of salt, but it kinda comes across as

a fellow townie

. A scum wouldn't want to die period, but I know the feeling of being town, accepting that I may well die in the course of events (eg NK) but wanting to make it past the first day. I'm gonna put Donki down as a very mild town tell for now.

Well... it doesn't seem like scum post actually quite the opposite. I hope that "satisfies" you as a direct response

Since that is what you think, why are you voting hessian?

[donkihott]

Because I don't think it is you or Tay. I prepared a post already in which I share some of my thoughts and as a side note I wrote to myself "if hessian dies vore ORAM and vice versa«. If it is Satisfaction though I would vote for him on the next day or if I die you and tay would probably vote him.

Since ORAM sussed me, wiyvern and hessian it means that none of us is the mason. Maybe reveal who is the other mason to be 100% sure about someone. I will post my pre-written post in a sec.

[donkihott]

This is the post I had pre written:

(I wrote the following before the nighkill so I don't know if a VT is dead or a PR or if there is a doctor and no one died and if we will know he was saved so we can clear him/her out which would be sick. I didn't know that roles will be revealed when players die since the irl mafia I've played we don't reveal the roles, on D2 however I realised how important these reveals might be and why without them it would be impossible for me at this state.)

Okay.. this game (mafia in particular) is really hard.
At least my gut that gawr (wiyvern) wouldn't be a PR was right.

I think we should consider and the players who were "scum read" by Mark on D1. There is a good chance he wanted to do just this, place his teammate high on the scum scale to separate from him/her and potentially setup a later town read on him/her or as a last resort at least save him/her from getting sus/killed in the following days.

I want to trust Satisfaction because I just can't find anything suscpicious in his posts and him wanting me to back down from hessian seems like a town move.

By the amount of suscpicion between fred and tay vs Mark I want to almost completely eliminate them from the scum list (Even though I don't like how Tay seems apathic and throws votes like hot bread).
My only guesses are ORAM (Olivia) and hessian (lower sus than ORAM now (based on Satisfaction's posts)).

//So we are (hope not) 5 people on board which means that (from what I undertand) we potentially have 1 shot left (before it is F-3 and it is 50/50 or 100/0) So is it good to discuss the potential setup and somehow work with the PRs to reveal the mafia (with or without revealing the people with the PRs.//

Though you can suspect me again, I will just rely on you seeing the truth behind my posts.

[donkihott]

Correct me if I'm wrong, the mason is in a private thread with the other mason, isn't he?

[Fredrick A Campbell]

UNVOTE:

Yeah. He is.

[Fredrick A Campbell]

VOTE: Satisfaction
I townread hessian for post 34.
I don't think Tayl0r Swift would have pushed her partner so hard on day 1.
I don't think donkihott would be putting in so much effort searching for scum if he is scum.
So, by POE, it is Satisfaction.

[donkihott]

VOTE: Satisfaction E-1 Works for me

[Satisfaction]

Stop. I’m the other mason. I have a crumb. Back up.

[hessian]

Quick post now, hopefully more later.

I definitely agree we should wait for the other Mason to claim.

Knee-jerk reactions:
If Satisfaction really is the other mafia, wouldn't it be a bit weird for Marky Mark to have put him as his strongest town read (somewhere around #85-87)? Of course there's an element of WIFOM, but worth thinking more thoroughly over.
I'm not really convinced that Fredrick should be considered confirmed town.

Also: are crumbs normal on MS? How much credibility are they usually given?

[Satisfaction]

That was dumb. I should have seen if we could bait a counter claim. I'm sorry. First reaction the moment I got out of bed. I'm not comfortable with being E-1 in this situation. Call me jumpy.

To be fair, it was meant to clear my partner because I thought I would die first buuuut:

O

n day 2 we should closely

inspect

everybody on the wagon.

I

think the likelihood of there being at least one mafia in that set is very high (maybe both of them).

M

ark's posts will be worth a re-read in context after the flip.

F

rankly, this turn of events seems unfortunate for the town but we can

rebuild

on day 2 if we come in ready to

work

.

@

M

ark: Now I feel bad that I never reciprocated your pleasantries--gg, see you around.

First letter of each sentence. OIMFM: Olivia Is My Fellow Mason
Additional mason-related keywords: inspect, rebuild, work.

[donkihott]

Wowww I am sooo hyped haha

[Satisfaction]

I'm not really convinced that Fredrick should be considered confirmed town.

I'm completely back to the drawing board right now and willing to consider that any of my reads could be wrong. When ORAM replaced in we had very similar takes on the game.

Why him and not me for the nightkill? If I recall, we basically had one difference in opinion. Re-reading.

[hessian]

@Satisfaction, I'm guessing the answer is no, but did Olivia/ORAM make any crumbed posts about you?

[Satisfaction]

Good luck with the 50/50

This is an oversimplification.