Mini Theme 2172: Great Idea Mafia - Game Over

[NoPowerOverMe]

Why not kill herta tomorrow. Can risk having a known third party alive.

[NoPowerOverMe]

Cant

[MURDERCAT]

I'll think on it, can anyone think of a way we lose tonight if primate is survivor and we elim there?

[Primate]

I'll think on it, can anyone think of a way we lose tonight if primate is survivor and we elim there?

You don't lose tonight, but if there's two town kills again tonight it puts you in a 4 person endgame with at least 2 scum.

I wouldn't have claimed survivor if I didn't think we were past the point you could deal with getting rid of me. If I go it has to be because you think I'm scum, really.

If you get rid of scum today and there's only one kill it goes down to 5 and then it's more of a discussion about whether it's worth getting rid of me, imho.

Idk, it might make sense if you equate survivor = scum (or if you actually think I'm scum), but it's lazy and risky.

[NoPowerOverMe]

The risk is keeping non town alive you cannot trust their vote.

[Iconeum]

i don't really feel like offing a claimed survivor right now

[NoPowerOverMe]

The problem is if you don't then when do you off them? And if they vote against you in ELLO at that point you're just stuck with your tail between your legs.

[Iconeum]

Otoh, there exists a path to victory with a claimed survivor alive. And there isn't one with scum alive.

[NoPowerOverMe]

"exists a path"? That's supposed to be convincing?

[Iconeum]

it's a shitty situation

[NoPowerOverMe]

We eliminated scum night 1, which rarely happens. It's not a shitty situation. You do what gives you the best chance to win. Do you want to put your fate in the hands of the survivor? I sure don't.

The fact that Primate said that raising these questions is "lazy" just proves the point that he's not pro town at heart.

[Iconeum]

7 alive with 1 claimed survivor

assume we flip that and it's indeed a survivor

worst case scenario we wake up with another 2 dead town which brings this to

4 player alive with 2 scum factions

i don't see how that's a favorable scenario?

[Iconeum]

7 alive, 1 claimed survivor

if we hit a scum faction, there's a chance there is 1 less NK

so we wake up, worst case, with 1 dead town. Which brings this to

1 survivor,
1-2 scum?
3 town?

[Iconeum]

6 out of 13 players are dead, 5 flipped town

how is this not a shitty situation

[NoPowerOverMe]

Keeping a survivor alive and hoping he votes with us is better?

Maybe it's not favorable but it's more favorable than if we'd hit scum N1.

[NoPowerOverMe]

hadn't hit scum rather.

[NoPowerOverMe]

If there is a mafia and werewolf and a survivor faction we are fucked anyways unless they kill each other off.

[Primate]

It's lazy imho because it omits the current game state. I'm aware it's better to get rid of survivors so they don't side with scum. That's why I waited until a point where I didn't think you could sensibly do that. It's not a question of whether you can trust survivors, it's a question of what the game state will be if you do vs if you don't.

As Ico says, if you elim me it's two kills tonight, because if herta is scum they're probably scum RB and block MurderCat.

If you elim me today and herta tomorrow and herta is town, me and town probably lose unless you rely on crosskills.

If you elim Herta as town, murder blocks someone and we go into tomorrow with 4 or 5, including me. If it's 5 we know a scum and we elim them. If it's 4, there's probably only one townie left at that point .

If you elim me today and herta is scum, you'll be at four players for sure, and you're entirely reliant on the other killing scum killing herta.

If you elim herta today and herta is scum, we go into d4 with 6 or 5 alive. 6 you probably have a confirmed scum, 5 you have a confirmed innocent. At this point, you have 5 alive with one other scumgroup left, you can then decide to flip the coin and get rid of me. At that point if there are 2 teamed scum left, you lose, if 1 teamed scum, you go into a 3p endgame.

There are scenarios where killing me is good, but it's generally reliant on the scum crosskilling a scum herta. Which is interesting, because it is definitely the right play from the scum PoV to win the endgame, but basically puts the chance of the towns victory in the scums hands, and it ignores the fact that the other scum may have 'tricks'" That's why I say it's risky.

[Primate]

If there is a mafia and werewolf and a survivor faction we are fucked anyways unless they kill each other off.

Only if you choose to shoot yourself in the foot by considering a survivor an enemy.

[NoPowerOverMe]

Anyone who's not town is the enemy because they have no motive to vote with town.

[Primate]

So what's your path to victory if I'm survivor and I go today?

[NoPowerOverMe]

However unlikely it might be, I'd rather win or lose by our fates than to put it in the hands of the enemy.

[Primate]

So you'd prefer to give the scum control of the game via night actions, than give a third party potential control of the game via one vote, correct?

Can you please quote, for future reference

"I am happy for the mafia or werewolves to win the game if I get to kill a survivor on day three."

[iamausername]

VOTE: Herta

NPOM, we know there are two scum factions that have night kills and those are a much higher priority than a Survivor. if you want to make a case that Primate

isn’t

a survivor, that would be another thing, but we are absolutely not executing Primate on the basis that a survivor is an enemy to the town. we have more important enemies to deal with.

[MURDERCAT]

UNVOTE:

No quick hammer please