Newbie 2038: Elements [Game Over]

[Egix96]

On why muh, the ideas I had for why. I know a bunch of these can be WIFOM, but I'll put the less WIFOMy first.

- hitting town who wasn't going to be protected and might have been investigated
- low activity player might be a pr? maybe there was something that was read as a crumb

Now, the WIFOMy stuff. I'm giving what I see as the tier 1 reasoning, add as many levels of WIFOM as you want. Vaguely sorted from what I think is more likely to less likely

- scum want the 72 v ff 1v1 that seems likely to result
- someone wants to benefit from the fact that they unvoted instead of pushing muh through
- someone wants to use muh being town to push people on that wagon
- sells narrative of spangled thinking scum have the game where they want it as wrong, or safebet as scum on the ropes as right
- scum want to push make someone suspicious based on muhs reads, as limited as they were

I could guess which one of these I think it is, but I'll keep it to myself if you'd rather.

I'm planning to have a go at rereading the whole game, but I likely won't have the free time to make a start on that until tomorrow.

[Mizzytastic]

I'm not saying if you share or not, that's up to you, just wanted to give safebet and 72 a chance to respond before I said them

[Spangled]

The reason I'm considering claiming is cos we have had an extra round of night actions for bodycount than we usually would have. Some of the setups have a decent chance of having extra clears beyond two uncountered claims which can really reduce the PoE. It also means that if scum counterclaim we don't end up losing if we get it wrong like we would tomorrow. I wanna think through all the options to try and present an optimal strategy and get feedback on it before anyone does anything, but I think there are probably some situations where we should claim and some where we shouldn't, decided by what town power there is and any results they've had.

I totally agree with seeing how the day plays out for now. I'm not saying "we should massclaim right now", I'm saying "I think there is a decent chance it's correct but it needs much thonk" :P

Your reasoning seems sound here, to me. We’re in quite a good situation as regards PRs; neither are dead and both have had several nights in which to do things. Clearing some people would be great. Likewise, the point about counterclaims is good; this is the right spot to massclaim because tomorrow scum could potentially counterclaim successfully.

Of course, if we had JK + VT, for example, that would kind of suck; we get no

definite

clears or confirmations because — theoretically — no kill the first night could be a no-kill gambit (unlikely but worth keeping in mind) or a protection of either scum or town. And there is the fact that NK analysis grinds to a halt; if two PRs claim they’ll be killed one after the other and that doesn’t give us much to work with there.

But on the whole I think we should still do it; if it’s B3, say, we can get quite a bit out of that. And if a PR were to die tonight and we hadn’t massclaimed, their potential clears or half-clears (so to speak) go with them to the grave. And tomorrow scum could counterclaim and win if they’re successful, which I’d like to avoid.

Yeah, I reckon we should.

[Spangled]

On why muh, the ideas I had for why. I know a bunch of these can be WIFOM, but I'll put the less WIFOMy first.

- hitting town who wasn't going to be protected and might have been investigated
- low activity player might be a pr? maybe there was something that was read as a crumb

Now, the WIFOMy stuff. I'm giving what I see as the tier 1 reasoning, add as many levels of WIFOM as you want. Vaguely sorted from what I think is more likely to less likely

- scum want the 72 v ff 1v1 that seems likely to result
- someone wants to benefit from the fact that they unvoted instead of pushing muh through
- someone wants to use muh being town to push people on that wagon
- sells narrative of spangled thinking scum have the game where they want it as wrong, or safebet as scum on the ropes as right
- scum want to push make someone suspicious based on muhs reads, as limited as they were

I could guess which one of these I think it is, but I'll keep it to myself if you'd rather.

I'm planning to have a go at rereading the whole game, but I likely won't have the free time to make a start on that until tomorrow.

Fair. I’d love a readslists though if you’re still around.

I mean, yes, that’s slightly hypocritical of me. But I’ll read the last few pages of yesterday soon and make one soon, I swear! and case 72, potentially

[Spangled]

On why muh, the ideas I had for why. I know a bunch of these can be WIFOM, but I'll put the less WIFOMy first.

- hitting town who wasn't going to be protected and might have been investigated
- low activity player might be a pr? maybe there was something that was read as a crumb

Now, the WIFOMy stuff. I'm giving what I see as the tier 1 reasoning, add as many levels of WIFOM as you want. Vaguely sorted from what I think is more likely to less likely

- scum want the 72 v ff 1v1 that seems likely to result
- someone wants to benefit from the fact that they unvoted instead of pushing muh through
- someone wants to use muh being town to push people on that wagon
- sells narrative of spangled thinking scum have the game where they want it as wrong, or safebet as scum on the ropes as right
- scum want to push make someone suspicious based on muhs reads, as limited as they were

Could you explain that fourth WIFOMy point to me?

Personally I think both of those top ones make a degree of sense, more the PR one than the other one. I mean, as to the first one, yes they weren’t going to get protected but that’s because everyone suspected them. The fact that they might have been investigated is fair though.

[Spangled]

Oh and I ought to

V/LA for the rest of this week

myself here.

[72offsuit]

Night kill spec is wifom and can be a slippery slope that can lead you down the garden path. By all means if you feel you have a strong grasp of sorting through the quagmire, feel free, but beware.

The consideration for a massclaim is decent.

I would have preferred for us all to naturally play and wagon the player we find scummiest player, but im get the feeling people want claims.
I feel like massclaiming does a fair chunk of the legwork for scum.

If we go down the massclaim route, we should vote on what order we want players to claim in. Scumbags (ff) first. No offence ff <3

If we dislike a claim, we can halt further claims and kick right there without any more claims.

[72offsuit]

I was curious to see if safebet or 72 would try to establish a narrative about that kill when pushed, been as they initially said they couldn't see why

Given you ask, I'd go with:
1) town were correctly reading him as town and were unlikely to kick him
2) he was fairly lurky, not particularly aggro, was quite defensive against people who pushed him which may have made scum incorrectly read him as a PR

But like I said night kill spec is mostly garbage.

[72offsuit]

On why muh, the ideas I had for why. I know a bunch of these can be WIFOM, but I'll put the less WIFOMy first.

- hitting town who wasn't going to be protected and might have been investigated
- low activity player might be a pr? maybe there was something that was read as a crumb

Now, the WIFOMy stuff. I'm giving what I see as the tier 1 reasoning, add as many levels of WIFOM as you want. Vaguely sorted from what I think is more likely to less likely

- scum want the 72 v ff 1v1 that seems likely to result
- someone wants to benefit from the fact that they unvoted instead of pushing muh through
- someone wants to use muh being town to push people on that wagon
- sells narrative of spangled thinking scum have the game where they want it as wrong, or safebet as scum on the ropes as right
- scum want to push make someone suspicious based on muhs reads, as limited as they were

I pretty much dont agree with any of these.
1. I dont see this as a 1v1 - I scumread FF, FF says she Town reads/leans me.
2 + 3. Muh was deadweight. Both town and scum would wagon him.
4. Spang sounds to me more like frustrated scum. We had a PR successfully protect a townie/successfully block a scum kill and yet Spang is all "woe is me"
Some narrative along the lines of Spang and Safebet is possible.
5. I dont think anyone took Muh's reads seriously.

[72offsuit]

Cos we have day 3 worth of night actions (been as it's not actually d2, just feels like it) and we avoid having to get a counterclaim right. Also cos I wanted to shut down you asking 72 specifically if that was a night based vote before we have a discussion about how we are going forward with that sorta stuff

I guarantee it's not a night-based vote!

This is a HORRIBLE post. Why would FF respond to this as town.

[Mizzytastic]

Yeah, night kill spec is dangerous, hence a wall of possibilities. I think some stuff is more likely than others but I'm specifically not trying to say muh dead means we should think this

Pedit:
1) and everyone else? Muh flipping town there makes it very likely all the attention is on you two
2+3) that's why the focus is on people trying to actively benefit from that
4) this was about the specific discussion between the two right before deadline
5) there is a reason i put it the bottom of what I find likely

[72offsuit]

I mean 72's done a lot, but I think most of it's been crap.

Not reading the ISO of a player you scumread - not a town mindest.

I’m going to look back over the end of day one, maybe roughly the last nine pages or something. Just not now.

Oh yeah and everyone, but 72 and safebet especially, can I get a readslist?

Lol, i gave all my reads in twilight and you are asking for my reads.
Fail scum.

Do you mean here:

Town Mizzy

Townlean safebet

At least 1 scum in JDye, Bangle, Egix.

First, that isn’t a readslist, not really; what do you

actually

think about Egix, me and JDye — second, what you’re pushing today isn’t there; ff doesn’t even feature there.

Give me a list; who do you actually think is scum? Why?
Give me a solid position, and for the love of all that’s good, if you’re town, stick to it or explain why it changes.

Or maybe you meant:

FF + bang/egix most likely i think

So why did JDye disappear from the previous list? Explain this to me, too.

Get lost. Ive posted shitload of reads and content. I'm not posting up my readslist until you put your readslist up first.
Demands a readslist from me and then goes VLA.....

[72offsuit]

without posting his own reads list.

[72offsuit]

Yeah, night kill spec is dangerous, hence a wall of possibilities. I think some stuff is more likely than others but I'm specifically not trying to say muh dead means we should think this

Pedit:
1) and everyone else? Muh flipping town there makes it very likely all the attention is on you two
2+3) that's why the focus is on people trying to actively benefit from that
4) this was about the specific discussion between the two right before deadline
5) there is a reason i put it the bottom of what I find likely

Mizzy, if there was again a no night kill situation, and Muh was alive, name for me, who would be pushing for muh's kick today?

[72offsuit]

The attention was always going to be on me, the largest wagon at end of day and given ive pushed so many players and have the most posts, as well as FF given i was pushing FF hard and there was sentiment for that kick.

[72offsuit]

Mizzy, please reread the game and ISO everyone's attitude/reads towards you.

When do players take a stance on your slot, and how did it coincide with my read of you.

[72offsuit]

Who actually attempted to try to solve your slot, and who was merely going with the overall vibe/sentiments of others?

[72offsuit]

On why muh, the ideas I had for why. I know a bunch of these can be WIFOM, but I'll put the less WIFOMy first.

- hitting town who wasn't going to be protected and might have been investigated
- low activity player might be a pr? maybe there was something that was read as a crumb

Now, the WIFOMy stuff. I'm giving what I see as the tier 1 reasoning, add as many levels of WIFOM as you want. Vaguely sorted from what I think is more likely to less likely

- scum want the 72 v ff 1v1 that seems likely to result
- someone wants to benefit from the fact that they unvoted instead of pushing muh through
- someone wants to use muh being town to push people on that wagon
- sells narrative of spangled thinking scum have the game where they want it as wrong, or safebet as scum on the ropes as right
- scum want to push make someone suspicious based on muhs reads, as limited as they were

I could guess which one of these I think it is, but I'll keep it to myself if you'd rather.

I'm planning to have a go at rereading the whole game, but I likely won't have the free time to make a start on that until tomorrow.

Fair. I’d love a readslists though if you’re still around.

I mean, yes, that’s slightly hypocritical of me. But I’ll read the last few pages of yesterday soon and make one soon, I swear! and case 72, potentially

Why are you seo keen to "case" me rather than actually ISO ALL players organically?

[72offsuit]

Readslist, to scale (confidence interval) - larger the gap, the more confidence

TOWN

Mizzy
-
-
-
-
-
Safebet
-
-
JDye
Egix
-
-
-
-
-
Bang
-
FF

SCUM

[safebet222]

I'm happy. I think.

@spangled my comment about a backordered spine was a joke/encouragement to myself. When I went on hiatus I felt like I'd become almost paralytic about taking stances and making choices/decisions. I'm doing better since un-retiring, and my 24+ hours in Day 2 was pretty stance-y for me.

Oh, I see, right. Glad you’re not

actually

missing a spine.

But speaking of stances, I really want to see why you think 72 is town.

This sounds like scum vs scum

I'd like to talk about this...

You didn't say that though. Your reasoning could totally be read as "this is my rvs vote, I only just figured out how to do it."

And the 72 comment sounds like putting out feelers to see if it will go. VOTE: cylstar

So your attacks are:
1. Not immediately stating reasoning, but then doing so when asked, which is a valid attack, uh, never?
2. Asking for affirmation on a read... in a mfn newbie game

I still have more reading to do to catch up but this is just gross. VOTE: Mizzytastic

ISOs:

Mizzy -- Tunneling someone in a vacuum is generally NAI and avoiding tunneling someone is good but Mizzy's treatment of cyl is horribly inconsistent with Mizzy's treatment of me.

I reread the game during the night phase and this stuck out... C4 coming to Cyl's defense. Mizzy talked about the chainsaw defense before...

[72offsuit]

My strong preference is for no claims, we wagon/kick FF, we have a mislynch in hand. There is really no need to massclaim. The fact that scum hit vanilla townie shows that scum has bad PR reads or the game is stacked against scum and they were forced into a suboptimal kill based on the game dynamics. Massclaim just plays into scum's hands imo.

[72offsuit]

Sure. Ill tell you why it sounds like scum vs scum

[72offsuit]

Bang:

1. enters into the game, does a

"catch up" where he doesnt list his impressions of all the players as a readlist

, but instead

chooses to pursue a vote and case against one player (myself)

2. DOESNT post a READLIST OF HIS OWN, but demands that the HIGHEST POSTING PLAYER who has possted SEVERAL READLISTS and READS in general and posited a few scumteams.

3. Im going to assume he "townlean/townreads" Mizzy, but once again noone knows because he STILL hasnt posted his reads, given he hasnt disagreed with my HARD TOWNREAD of Mizzy.

4. INSTEAD of asking the OBVtown Mizzy who townreads me, WHY Mizzy townreads me, he isntead directs the question towards FF.
If he was town I think he would ask Mizzy, not FF. And why is he asking now? Yesterday they had different reads on my slot. So why ask now?

[72offsuit]

So like i said, i STRONGLY suggest we kick FF or Bang. No massclaim.

a) If we are in a 1 PR setup, scum just claim vanilla, and the PR gets night killed.
b) If we have a jailer, jailer is MUCH stronger once 1 scum is dead - if we correctly wagon and kick !scumFF or !scumbang

No surprises that FF is open to a massclaim, despite stating not to know when massclaims are good.

[72offsuit]

JDye goes lower on the scumreads list given he was present at end of day yesterday.