Last edited by Umlaut on Sun Nov 22, 2020 7:00 am, edited 1 time in total.
“There are two kinds of people in this world: those who say, ‘There are two kinds of people in this world: those who say there are two kinds of people in this world,
Honestly I would be shocked, but I guess I would more strongly consider ff. But the game just kinda doesn't make sense to me if he flips green, I would probably have to reread everything.
@MURDERCAT - you described me and 72 as two experienced scum. I have 2 scum games, both I replaced out again in less than a gameday for mental health or overloaded schedule reasons. I'm not saying I would have replaced already if scum cos I'm trying really hard to just get through this then just stick to modding and think that commitment to myself would hopefully apply if I was scum as well - but my experience is super uneven and scumplay is a low point for me.
How should I interpret this spiking my anxiety? I feel like whenever 72 wants to get me to do something I'm gonna come back to 4 pages of shouting. I specifically avoided the thread earlier cos I saw this
@MURDERCAT - I thought jk was one of the weaker possible claims because of the chance of landing in the slot with nothing else. Why are you saying that should claim? And why only one the people you are currently casing and not in general?
In post 947, Mizzytastic wrote:The reason I'm considering claiming is cos we have had an extra round of night actions for bodycount than we usually would have. Some of the setups have a decent chance of having extra clears beyond two uncountered claims which can really reduce the PoE. It also means that if scum counterclaim we don't end up losing if we get it wrong like we would tomorrow. I wanna think through all the options to try and present an optimal strategy and get feedback on it before anyone does anything, but I think there are probably some situations where we should claim and some where we shouldn't, decided by what town power there is and any results they've had.
I totally agree with seeing how the day plays out for now. I'm not saying "we should massclaim right now", I'm saying "I think there is a decent chance it's correct but it needs much thonk"
Your reasoning seems sound here, to me. We’re in quite a good situation as regards PRs; neither are dead and both have had several nights in which to do things. Clearing some people would be great. Likewise, the point about counterclaims is good; this is the right spot to massclaim because tomorrow scum could potentially counterclaim successfully.
Of course, if we had JK + VT, for example, that would kind of suck; we get no
definite
clears or confirmations because — theoretically — no kill the first night could be a no-kill gambit (unlikely but worth keeping in mind) or a protection of either scum or town. And there is the fact that NK analysis grinds to a halt; if two PRs claim they’ll be killed one after the other and that doesn’t give us much to work with there.
But on the whole I think we should still do it; if it’s B3, say, we can get quite a bit out of that. And if a PR were to die tonight and we hadn’t massclaimed, their potential clears or half-clears (so to speak) go with them to the grave. And tomorrow scum could counterclaim and win if they’re successful, which I’d like to avoid.
In post 979, safebet222 wrote:Ok... @Mizzy... I think 72 is correct that massclaim is not good for town here. I don't think there is incentive for scum to do anything but claim VT in any setup. Except for...
In post 973, 72offsuit wrote:
a) If we are
I'm scum reading Spangled but not Mizzy for this... in a 1 PR setup, scum just claim vanilla, and the PR gets night killed.
In this situation, unless there was a NK gambit, the 1PR is JK... Scum could claim tracker or FN... So town can't even trust the massclaim result fully unless there is a doc setup. It might benefit town if we are in the cop and doc setup and cop has hit scum. And even then I'm not sure outing that before MELo/ ELo is good either.
Let me know why I'm wrong if I am.
I do see your logic here; I’m torn between the problems with massclaiming, but also the possibility that a cop with two greens, say, could die. Or even a JK with an either-red-or-green, or a tracker with a probably-green... I just think, more data is better.
Unless someone else wants to get into it with Spangled on this point, I'd rather not except to say what he wrote is not accurate and should not be used as a basis for deciding.
My questions...
1) I scum read Spangled for the top exchange but not Mizzy... confirmation bias on Mizzy due to UTR? Or is the stance on the massclaim idea NAI? I think mass claim is throwing away any advantage on the NK idea from D2.
2) What do you think about my exchange with Spangled below?
Here's a question, why isn't mizzy dead after what kinda reads like a soft claim there? Or at least being focused on roles is a PR or scum tell and mizzy is also widely town read. So the muh shot is still weird. Mizzy looks like she is floating the idea without committing to it to me. IMO, mass claim before elo is silly, trust your PRs to claim when they have info. I think scum is more likely to do that floaty stuff than outright say it, but that's just me.
As for the second exchange I think it's a town slip actually, and I'm guessing you can see the reasoning there.
My thoughts were if we are in cop doc we definitely want to claim cos we have a decent chance of getting a whole bunch of clears and maybe just blowing the game open.
Doc tracker maybe ... you get a clear from the doc, tracker should claim last cos a positive can blow up counterclaims
jk claiming seemed spooky cos of the situation with no other power, maybe after a tracker gets a positive
Dunno how to deal with the friendly neighbour setup
It's too late for that now, but I said I'd give my thoughts there so I should at least get that out of the way before catching up
In post 1285, Mizzytastic wrote:@MURDERCAT - I thought jk was one of the weaker possible claims because of the chance of landing in the slot with nothing else. Why are you saying that should claim? And why only one the people you are currently casing and not in general?
Let me ask you, if you put JK in a setup what is the most town could get out of it? A near guilty if you SRd a slot and blocked a kill is basically the most you could expect right? So why keep the JK alive at that point when we could flip a scum and possibly JK the other? I'm not sure I follow when you say weaker possible claim though.
If there was a JK on another SR'd slot I think there should still be a claim, but obviously I have an extra interest if it was one of you because it helps my case.
In post 1283, Mizzytastic wrote:but my experience is super uneven and scumplay is a low point for me.
You've modded enough games that I think you know what good scum play looks like IMO. But what do you make of my case on 72?
Knowing and doing aren't the same thing.
I already get why 72 looks scummy. What I'm trying to resolve are my feelings of "Am I being pocketed here?" (which has happened before by a similar sort of loud TSTBS polarising slot). I could definitely vote there cos I'm starting to realise just how stressful interacting with that slot has been for me and thinking that could indicate it's a scum tactic, but I at least want to have forced myself to read through d3 before I do.
I think town!you believes it enough to put yourself on a massive uphill battle at 6 if 72 flips town and scum probably wanna keep town!72 around cos his going after everybody has damaged any cred behind his reads and he's a lot of noise in a final situation that doesn't necessarily go in the right direction. I'm also inclined to town read you for coming after me when people town read me so widely - though my low activity muddies the water there because it makes me an easier target than a UTR normally is.
pedit: not advocating for a claim any more, its too late in the day, just said I'd give it and felt like I should
No worries. This did make me think to look at the countdown though, just a reminder that we basically have 24 hours to choose a target.
Also I'm just going to call this now, if we go with 72 and he's scum I'd like doc on me and JK on mizzy. If you don't feel comfortable going JK on mizzy then JK on me is also acceptable
In post 1295, MURDERCAT wrote:Well it reads to me like you are waiting to see if anyone else hops on the wagon, but I'll hold my tongue for now.
I would be surprised if egix is scum, he has a number of posts I liked
Yeah, cos the townie thing for me to do here is vote a slot I have mixed feelings about when I don't feel caught up to try and appease you? Or would that just be me trying to get away from your pressure? You have me as one of two lock scum with no one else close, you are gonna see the scum side of any action I take
And I didn't ask if you liked Egix. I brought up what should be an important trajectory on his part as an idle thought, it's something I'm going to look for and if anyone had anything else to share on it that'd be cool too
No worries. This did make me think to look at the countdown though, just a reminder that we basically have 24 hours to choose a target.
Also I'm just going to call this now, if we go with 72 and he's scum I'd like doc on me and JK on mizzy. If you don't feel comfortable going JK on mizzy then JK on me is also acceptable
How about 50/50 coin flip between us to make it harder for scum to plan for?
