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Post Post #475 (ISO) » Mon Nov 23, 2020 1:27 am

Post by PokerFace »

Can you update who owns what team in the opening post or something so that I know who is what in those odds for L1?
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Post Post #476 (ISO) » Mon Nov 23, 2020 1:52 pm

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I am american dynasty
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Post Post #477 (ISO) » Mon Nov 23, 2020 11:52 pm

Post by PokerFace »

The opening post has who is what team for league 2 but it still needs info for league one. I can tell what teams belong to Khan, Panzer, Yiley, Aronis, Tally, Sharon, Rhinox, and KMD. Can't tell what teams belong to racefan, Peg, Dominator, and D3f

Here is league 2 after 11 weeks
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This thanksgiving week we got a treat. The 2 division leaders that have been 1-2 most of the season finally play each other. Both are getting byes but who will be seed 1?
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Post Post #478 (ISO) » Tue Nov 24, 2020 12:52 am

Post by Nero Cain »

ima make u fold
Of all tyrannies,a tyranny sincerely exercised for the good of its victims may be the most oppressive. It would be better to live under robber barons than under omnipotent moral busybodies. The robber baron's cruelty may sometimes sleep but those who torment us for our own good will torment us without end they do so with the approval of their own conscience.

edited c.s. lewis quote b/c limit
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Post Post #479 (ISO) » Tue Nov 24, 2020 5:30 am

Post by BrightEyedFish »

I'm glad I got a W again finally! The stumble was really starting to hurt!

Hopefully it continues this week against the Pooky Magic Bears. :giggle:
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Post Post #480 (ISO) » Tue Nov 24, 2020 5:31 am

Post by D3f3nd3r »

In post 477, PokerFace wrote:The opening post has who is what team for league 2 but it still needs info for league one. I can tell what teams belong to Khan, Panzer, Yiley, Aronis, Tally, Sharon, Rhinox, and KMD. Can't tell what teams belong to racefan, Peg, Dominator, and D3f

Here is league 2 after 11 weeks
Image

This thanksgiving week we got a treat. The 2 division leaders that have been 1-2 most of the season finally play each other. Both are getting byes but who will be seed 1?
Racing to the Endzone, Coggers, #47 is eligible, Men Without Helmets respectively for the four you’re missing
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Post Post #481 (ISO) » Tue Nov 24, 2020 7:33 am

Post by PokerFace »

So Rolling Thunder, Coggers, #72 is eligible, Men Without Helmets from the earlier listings

Hopefully Thielen plays this week. I think I can still hang with Nero without Thielen especially if Golladay is out and Jones is Detroit number 1. Projections currently favor me by a little less than 2 points
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Post Post #482 (ISO) » Tue Nov 24, 2020 7:39 pm

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yeah, your roster is scary but they've had down weeks.
Of all tyrannies,a tyranny sincerely exercised for the good of its victims may be the most oppressive. It would be better to live under robber barons than under omnipotent moral busybodies. The robber baron's cruelty may sometimes sleep but those who torment us for our own good will torment us without end they do so with the approval of their own conscience.

edited c.s. lewis quote b/c limit
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Post Post #483 (ISO) » Tue Nov 24, 2020 10:09 pm

Post by PokerFace »

Yay two of my losses occurred on weeks where my team shit a brick. And had another loss because I played top scorer that week and my team did well but not well enough

Recent reports suggest Golladay is not playing so I will be starting Jones since I can't guarantee Thielen will be negative and off the covid list by the time Jones suits up on Thursday. Why must lions always play Thanksgiving? Tradition? There are some traditions that need reconsidered. They should look into other teams being there in future years. Cowboys and Lions won't make it far this year. Pitt vs Baltimore is fine. I won't watch it because I am browns fan but those teams are trending much better than Dallas and Lions this year
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Now I test lottery and gambling software as my job. It's funny how my life has turned out. Somewhere a Time Traveler is laughing madly
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Post Post #484 (ISO) » Wed Nov 25, 2020 1:24 am

Post by Kilgamayan »

Wednesday morning is always amusing due to mentally earmarking a handful of defenses to stream on Tuesday and then waking up to find that literally all of them have been waiver claimed.

(Thankfully that won't be a problem for Week 13 and, if I get that far, Week 14)
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Post Post #485 (ISO) » Wed Nov 25, 2020 4:20 am

Post by D3f3nd3r »

Oops Racing to the End Zone is his auction team, sorry
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Post Post #486 (ISO) » Wed Nov 25, 2020 3:48 pm

Post by PokerFace »

Its cool, I was able to figure out what you meant based on the other listings

Covid has been effecting the ravens a lot and moved the thursday evening game to sunday. Ravens were scheduled to play this thursday against pit and next thursday against dallas. So they were scheduled to get back to back thursday evening games. TB has gotten a large number of prime time appearances this year. I understand you want to have the trending teams be in primetime, but you shouldn't do it to the point that any one team is always in prime time

I am of the opinion that if you want high ratings then just have the teams play at times that make sense for them based on the timezone the teams in the game are from and based on location of where they are playing. For example, let's say its not 2020. Let's say its far from covid times and we have a game between the Rams and the Seahawks in London. Should that game be on at 6am ish for the west coast people while at 1?pm in London? I think the game should occur at 8pm in London which is roughly 3or4pm for the east coast people and 12or1pm for the west coast. Now everyone can watch the game and not have to wake up at a craptacular time where very few would normally watch the game.
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Now I test lottery and gambling software as my job. It's funny how my life has turned out. Somewhere a Time Traveler is laughing madly
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Post Post #487 (ISO) » Wed Nov 25, 2020 11:15 pm

Post by PokerFace »

In post 484, Kilgamayan wrote:Wednesday morning is always amusing due to mentally earmarking a handful of defenses to stream on Tuesday and then waking up to find that literally all of them have been waiver claimed.

(Thankfully that won't be a problem for Week 13 and, if I get that far, Week 14)
I picked up miami defense I think 2 weeks ago because their schedule is pretty darn good moving forward. Only time its awful is week 14 against the chiefs, but with a bye already secure, I won't be playing week 14 so I have no worries here. Maybe I get someone for week 16 since LV could be bad, but other than that I have been running just miami's defense on my roster for a couple weeks now and have no desire to change. Can easily drop them week 16 for someone else then
Last edited by PokerFace on Wed Nov 25, 2020 11:31 pm, edited 5 times in total.
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Post Post #488 (ISO) » Wed Nov 25, 2020 11:20 pm

Post by Nero Cain »

I play the Jets in week 15 and 16 (assuming I get there)
Of all tyrannies,a tyranny sincerely exercised for the good of its victims may be the most oppressive. It would be better to live under robber barons than under omnipotent moral busybodies. The robber baron's cruelty may sometimes sleep but those who torment us for our own good will torment us without end they do so with the approval of their own conscience.

edited c.s. lewis quote b/c limit
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Post Post #489 (ISO) » Wed Nov 25, 2020 11:21 pm

Post by Nero Cain »

prob starting CLE this week. Gonna beat Poker with his own team
Of all tyrannies,a tyranny sincerely exercised for the good of its victims may be the most oppressive. It would be better to live under robber barons than under omnipotent moral busybodies. The robber baron's cruelty may sometimes sleep but those who torment us for our own good will torment us without end they do so with the approval of their own conscience.

edited c.s. lewis quote b/c limit
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Post Post #490 (ISO) » Wed Nov 25, 2020 11:24 pm

Post by PokerFace »

Good decision on your part. Browns play Jags. Miami plays Jets. I suspect both our defenses will do well this week.

Golladay has gone from Questionable to out. Rolling with Marvin Jones Jr no doubt. Hopkins has gone in questionable. I suspect he will play but if something changes I will know more about Theilin playing later in the week and can sub in Theilin or Corey Davis if necessary. The years I have done well on MS have been years where I have had very good wide receivers. My running back core has been unhealthy and likely would have caused me to lose more games if I didn't get Robinson of the jags just before the season and davis of the panthers when cmc went down. I wish CMC and Bell had turned out well for me, but I have been fine otherwise so not really bothered by it
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Post Post #491 (ISO) » Wed Nov 25, 2020 11:30 pm

Post by PokerFace »

No one seems to want to say yay or neh about A and B here
In post 465, PokerFace wrote:How did you calculate that race fan?

There are some suggestions I would like to add to Nero's suggestion list for next year

A. My opinion on IR spots.

I believe 3 IRs would have been fine since we had covid and we had no preseason. No preseason increased injuries and covid surely did too. I assume covid will be gone next year. I assume preseason will be back. If that is true, 1 IR spot is fine. 1 IR good for a regular season. But if we ever have no preseason again, add an ir spot. If we ever have covid or something similar again, add an IR spot. Minimum of 1 IR. Max of 3 if we get shananigans

B. We should add another bench spot, for a total of 16 roster spots.

I suggest this because let's think for a second. Who drafted first in the first round? Who drafted first in the last round? The same person drafts in both of those positions. So that person gets 8 first picks and 7 last picks in the current 15 rounds. Shouldn't they get the same number of firsts as lasts? As it stands drafting in positions 6-10 or 7-12, you kinda get screwed. Shouldn't it be equal for all players in terms of when you draft early and when you draft late? So let's add another bench to the roster and have a 16 round draft next time for this fairness.

C. If we got 10 players then 4 playoffs with no divisions. If we got 12 players than 4 playoffs with 3 divisions of 4.

We could also try 12 players with 6 in playoffs and 4 divisions of 3. I have heard good things about that but that may be changing too much so just what's by the C really

That's all I got
Nero only person to give some feedback
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Now I test lottery and gambling software as my job. It's funny how my life has turned out. Somewhere a Time Traveler is laughing madly
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Post Post #492 (ISO) » Thu Nov 26, 2020 3:56 am

Post by Kublai Khan »

No issues with any of your suggestions, PF.
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Post Post #493 (ISO) » Thu Nov 26, 2020 3:59 am

Post by D3f3nd3r »

The main reason L2 is using 6 is to normalize the schedule, I’m pretty sure. A 13 week regular season with two divisions of five can be two games against each divisional opponent and one game against each team from the other division. Then playoffs weeks 14-16 and we’re good.
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Post Post #494 (ISO) » Thu Nov 26, 2020 4:26 am

Post by PokerFace »

In post 493, D3f3nd3r wrote:
The main reason L2 is using 6 is to normalize the schedule, I’m pretty sure.
A 13 week regular season with two divisions of five can be two games against each divisional opponent and one game against each team from the other division. Then playoffs weeks 14-16 and we’re good.
That is true, I just think 6 people might be too many. Byes might not be something we really want. Also if we end the season sooner and lock the playoffs at 6 people is that truly better for overall fun in comparison to locking it later at 4? Does more people in the playoffs really increase your chances of winning?

At start of week 14, only 6 players will still have a chance at winning it all in league 2. I want to know how many people are still alive in league 1 at the start of week 14. Is that more or less than 6?

-Currently at start of week 12 we have 9 out of 10 people still alive in ms league 2. 2 players have clinched playoffs
-Currently at the start of week 12 in one of my non ms leagues we have 10 out of 10 players still alive in a no divisions 4 player playoff format. Only 1 player has clinched playoffs
-Currently at the start of week 12 in one of my non ms leagues we have 10 out of 12 alive in a 6 of 12 make it in format. I believe only 2 players have cliched. Can't use the tool D3f gave me here since its an espn league but pretty sure only 2 have clinched and yes this is a 4 divisions of 3 format that I have never been in before so not sure how I feel about it yet but i will list what I believe its data is here since I find it relevant.

My 4th league is an 8 player league where 4 of 8 make it in. Don't think data on this is relevant to how 10 and 12 player leagues should be handled. It is a yahoo league with no divisions, but again I don't think its data is relevant given 8 players. 8 players where everyone plays everyone twice should have 4 in playoffs. I think everyone can agree with that.

Did people's chances change much for League 1 odds now that week 11 is complete? How many still alive now? is that more or less than 10? How many clinched now? Is it more or less than 2?
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Now I test lottery and gambling software as my job. It's funny how my life has turned out. Somewhere a Time Traveler is laughing madly
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Post Post #495 (ISO) » Thu Nov 26, 2020 4:36 am

Post by D3f3nd3r »

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Post Post #496 (ISO) » Thu Nov 26, 2020 4:45 am

Post by PokerFace »

So currently at start of week 12 we have 10 of 12 still alive in ms league 1 with 1 player clinched.

Current data suggests 4 of 10 no divisions has better odds than 6 of 10 with 2 divisions since you have 10 vs 9 alive and 1/4 vs 2/6 in clinched comparisons. 1/4 is less than 2/6 or 1/3 so that means you have 3/4 or 75% unclinched vs 66% unclinched. So ms league 2 is losing the odds comparisons by both the clinching and players alive metrics

Current data suggests 4 of 12 with 3 divisions of 4 has better odds with 4 divisions of 3. Both leagues have an equal number of players still alive at 10. My non-ms league has 2/6 or 1/3 clinched while ms league 1 has 1/4 clinched. So ms league 1 is winning the odds comparison by only the clinching metrics.

Thank you for giving the updated data D3f
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Now I test lottery and gambling software as my job. It's funny how my life has turned out. Somewhere a Time Traveler is laughing madly
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Post Post #497 (ISO) » Thu Nov 26, 2020 8:08 am

Post by PokerFace »

In post 486, PokerFace wrote:Its cool, I was able to figure out what you meant based on the other listings

Covid has been effecting the ravens a lot and moved the thursday evening game to sunday. Ravens were scheduled to play this thursday against pit and next thursday against dallas. So they were scheduled to get back to back thursday evening games. TB has gotten a large number of prime time appearances this year. I understand you want to have the trending teams be in primetime, but you shouldn't do it to the point that any one team is always in prime time

I am of the opinion that if you want high ratings then just have the teams play at times that make sense for them based on the timezone the teams in the game are from and based on location of where they are playing. For example, let's say its not 2020. Let's say its far from covid times and we have a game between the Rams and the Seahawks in London. Should that game be on at 6am ish for the west coast people while at 1?pm in London? I think the game should occur at 8pm in London which is roughly 3or4pm for the east coast people and 12or1pm for the west coast. Now everyone can watch the game and not have to wake up at a craptacular time where very few would normally watch the game.
I would also appreciate people's feedback on my idea of when games should be played. Both texas teams and 2 nfc east teams playing today feels off too
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Now I test lottery and gambling software as my job. It's funny how my life has turned out. Somewhere a Time Traveler is laughing madly
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Post Post #498 (ISO) » Thu Nov 26, 2020 1:56 pm

Post by PokerFace »

Well shit. I was projected by about 2 early in week. Then 7 this morning, but thanks to mclaurin, watson, and gibson i am now projected to lose by about 25. And that would be worse if nero started cooper too. Jones did not do much for me at all :(
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Now I test lottery and gambling software as my job. It's funny how my life has turned out. Somewhere a Time Traveler is laughing madly
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Post Post #499 (ISO) » Thu Nov 26, 2020 1:58 pm

Post by Nero Cain »

I think Jones was a good start! :)
Of all tyrannies,a tyranny sincerely exercised for the good of its victims may be the most oppressive. It would be better to live under robber barons than under omnipotent moral busybodies. The robber baron's cruelty may sometimes sleep but those who torment us for our own good will torment us without end they do so with the approval of their own conscience.

edited c.s. lewis quote b/c limit

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