976: mystyry box of sylvyr I: isis game. day 3

[SKYEscrapers]

wtf

[SKYEscrapers]

no way that's real

[SKYEscrapers]

that would require a third roleblocker

[SKYEscrapers]

unless mastina is my partner, that means my claim is very likely real whether or not i'm scum

[SKYEscrapers]

so if that's not exactly the team, dunnstral's claim is very unlikely

[Dunnstral]

dunnstral's claim is very unlikely

actually, it's 90% likely to be true

[mastina]

First off if we were masons we would be on the same side and he wouldn’t have outed me.

I claimed because I was put to L-1 with your help and needed to out the info to survive

For the record.
I don't care if it's 7-2 or 4-5.
I don't believe in a MBOS game a claim of just "neighbor" with nothing extra in it.
No power role, no neighborhood abilities, just neighbor?

The lack of power role claim makes me pretty sure that Dunnstral is not town, and given the lack of openly claiming 3p, presumably, scum (which is to say, nontown that cannot win with town, whose wincon is mutually exclusive with the town's).

^Not a 'crumb, by the way, but Dunnstral I did mention on D1 that I didn't believe your claim of being just a neighbor--if you are, indeed, not just a neighbor as you're now claiming...why didn't you correct me?


But back to the 'crumbs:

Also, Nic, did you figure out which Isis-sentence your role is linked to?

For the record on my part.
I can't figure it out because there's too many candidates.

• My cats' eye colors were virtually the same at birth, but diverged during their adolescence and became the best way to tell them apart.
  
• Once in Washington Square Park in NYC, I came across a man making music with empty containers, and I really liked it.
  
• It seems inherently impossible to decide the appropriate amount of time to wait at midnight to assume that a traffic light is stuck on red and it is okay to ignore it.
  
• Dandelions are exciting because you can see their reproductive strategy so clearly.
  
• There should have been more than one season of Firefly.
  
• Drink lots of water every chance you get.
  
• Playing piano by memory and by reading sheet music are satisfying each in different ways.

Because I could see it as being any of these. (Tho given the nature of my role, if I had to guess, it might be Firefly?)

I could see my role being the cats eyes, because my role has two different functions. Slightly less likely than other combos.
I could see my role being based on 'coming across' (tracking) music and liking it (doctor). Probably not, in hindsight.
I could see traffic light and ignoring it relating to tracking and doctoring (but maybe less likely, in hindsight).
I could see it based on dandelions as being investigating the scientific process as exciting and the reproduction being birth (tho in hindsight, less likely).
I could see Firefly as being me due to the crew having a doctor and seasoned trackers onboard (and I feel this remains one of the most likely).
I could see drinking water as being doctorly advice with every chance being for the tracker half (although this is less likely).
I also could see it as piano by memory and reading sheet music being satisfying in different ways, to reflect how doctoring someone successfully and tracking someone successfully are satisfying in different ways, but are fundamentally near-opposites in that doing one comes at the expense of the other, so maybe this one is the most likely in hindsight.

Because

I have

very

strong reasons to believe there is an antitown faction with the ability to nightkill

.

Why would I have very strong reasons to believe there is an antitown faction with the ability to nightkill?

Because of being a protective whose purpose is to stop nightkills, and also having a tracking power meant to catch nightkills.

I have good reason to believe that even if the game is four town and five nontown, the game still has a "scum" faction.

Reiterated here, but also, during the whole time of the 4 town 5nontown I always insisted there would be two scum.

TheGoldenParadox has had well-thought-out stances the entire game long and has been scumhunting from the getgo.

They definitely didn't perform the nightkill last night

, and they've been showing well-reasoned, solid stances from the getgo and with good logic backing them.

I literally put my tracker result in my wall here. I'm surprised nobody caught it, but the reason I knew TGP didn't perform the nightkill N1 is because I doctor-tracked them.

Actually.

I am the most familiar of any player onsite with the possible exception of Titus (his brother) as to how MathBlade is a scum asset in causing TvT fighting that drains the life out of towns during games. (Probably, most infamously, Civilization Mafia.) I am quite aware of how antitown MathBlade can be,

so the kill on him took me off-guard as well, as I was sure that the N1 kill was going to be either you or TGP.

---
Being obvtown in a micro is bad for scum, so just about any scumteam would, in hindsight, have reason to eliminate Mathblade. (It was just that specifically my experience with Math

blinded me to that aspect

.)

In this post I literally explained why I protected TGP N1 and 'crumbed my intention to protect Akarin N2. I was caught off-guard by the Math nightkill since I thought that Math-Akarin was valuable enough an argument to the scumteam that they'd leave both alive to D2...thus why I protected TGP who I thought they'd opt for instead.

With them having actually eliminated Mathblade rather than leaving him alive, I thought they'd eliminate the second half of the Math-Akarin duo, thus my protection on Akarin N2.

That, plus my own role is a soft-cc to this claim. (Not a hard-cc; it is theoretically possible for my role and their role to both be town, it's just incredibly unlikely and far, far, far more likely from a setup perspective for their role to be a scum role meant to roleblock roles like mine with the drawback of being unable to kill the player roleblocked.)

It is theoretically possible for a combined doctor-tracker and a 1x alien to share an alignment and both be town.

It is far more likely that a combined doctor-tracker is a town role and the 1x alien is a scum role meant to prevent one of my protection-tracks from going through.

Before I go to bed tho and before the thread is locked.

ok, so a 1-shot alien has been scum before. and? why can't it be town?

It can, it's just that between it having been a scum role in a game schadd_ conceived literally simultaneously to this one and your role being a soft-cc to my own with your role looking like it was built to stop my role, your role being scum looks more likely.

huh second VT, i think any other vanilla town should claim right?

Well everyone aside from TGP has either roleclaimed (Dunn, DT, SKYE) or softclaimed (you, me, Akarin), so tomorrow we should be massclaiming anyway. (And if, as I suspect, it's lylo, treat any hard-guilties/innocents with the appropriate grains of salt deserved for xylo situations, and be cautious with the voting.)

To reiterate:
If I am not alive tomorrow.
You power-fucking-lynch SKYEscrapers and Dunnstral; you do NOT eliminate Gypyx, Akarin, or TheGoldenParadox out of paranoia.

SKYE and Dunnstral are your scumteam.

Reiterating the doubt behind tracker-doctor and 1x alien being on the same team with the likelihood of the 1x alien being scum. Also, another instance where I state my belief that Dunnstral hard-claimed Neighbor, nothing more...and Dunnstral did not correct me. So to reiterate once more, he's bullshitting a claim in lylo.

[mastina]

My role is loud odd-night alien neighbor
night 1 I targeted DoubtingThomas. They never said anything about it to the end, I'm assuming that somebody else roleblocked me
I'm pretty sure one of Skye/mastina are mafia, based on claims.

And you said nothing about SKYEscrapers claiming a 1x version of your role...why?

And if you were roleblocked, who did the roleblocking?

I know I was roleblocked N2, which you claim could not be you.
But SKYEscrapers is claiming 1x--which means either they lied about being 1x and are scum, or told the truth and there's no explanation for you being roleblocked.

I do tend to agree with your sentiment tho. There is at least one scum between you and SKYE.
I just happen to think it's not limited to being precisely one and could very well be two because both your claims are sketchy as fuck, both your plays are sketchy as fuck, both of you have fingered me as scum rather than each other and you fit perfectly as scumbuddies.

[Dunnstral]

And you said nothing about SKYEscrapers claiming a 1x version of your role...why?

I didn't want to elim Skye, so I left that to figure out today

[Dunnstral]

huh second VT, i think any other vanilla town should claim right?

also i thought about something, maybe like, the roles we have got assigned

before

the alignements? that would make sense with nic's information

so if i'm right speculating if a role is scummy or not wouldn't actually make sense

Here is Gypyx' claim. Akarin, I want yours too

[SKYEscrapers]

unless something someone else claims changes anything or ari tells me no, i'm probably voting dunn here

[mastina]

My role is loud odd-night alien neighbor
night 1 I targeted DoubtingThomas. They never said anything about it to the end, I'm assuming that somebody else roleblocked me
I'm pretty sure one of Skye/mastina are mafia, based on claims.

And you said nothing about SKYEscrapers claiming a 1x version of your role...why?

And if you were roleblocked, who did the roleblocking?

I know I was roleblocked N2, which you claim could not be you.
But SKYEscrapers is claiming 1x--which means either they lied about being 1x and are scum, or told the truth and there's no explanation for you being roleblocked.

I do tend to agree with your sentiment tho. There is at least one scum between you and SKYE.
I just happen to think it's not limited to being precisely one and could very well be two because both your claims are sketchy as fuck, both your plays are sketchy as fuck, both of you have fingered me as scum rather than each other and you fit perfectly as scumbuddies.

To explain on this.
SKYEscrapers claimed their role on D2.
Dunnstral continued to defend them as town on D2, not mentioning them as being suspect in spite of

them claiming to be his exact role, only oneshot instead of loud+odd

.

Why did Dunnstral not think SKYEscrapers claiming his role was suspect? What made them claiming his role continue to be town?

This is why I see both claims as suspect.

[SKYEscrapers]

And you said nothing about SKYEscrapers claiming a 1x version of your role...why?

I didn't want to elim Skye, so I left that to figure out today

really? you wanted to wait until lylo?

[SKYEscrapers]

huh second VT, i think any other vanilla town should claim right?

also i thought about something, maybe like, the roles we have got assigned

before

the alignements? that would make sense with nic's information

so if i'm right speculating if a role is scummy or not wouldn't actually make sense

Here is Gypyx' claim. Akarin, I want yours too

but this isn't a claim. what?

[mastina]

And you said nothing about SKYEscrapers claiming a 1x version of your role...why?

I didn't want to elim Skye, so I left that to figure out today

And why didn't you want to eliminate a player that you are now hard-counterclaiming?

I soft-cc'd yesterday with my doubt--you, however, are hard-cc'ing yet yesterday showed no doubt at all towards them.

[Dunnstral]

I don't think it's impossible for both of our roles to exist, so I didn't counter claim it

[Dunnstral]

huh second VT, i think any other vanilla town should claim right?

also i thought about something, maybe like, the roles we have got assigned

before

the alignements? that would make sense with nic's information

so if i'm right speculating if a role is scummy or not wouldn't actually make sense

Here is Gypyx' claim. Akarin, I want yours too

but this isn't a claim. what?

I misunderstood that as Gypyx claiming VT. In that case, their claim too

[SKYEscrapers]

dunnstral's claim is very unlikely

actually, it's 90% likely to be true

actually, adjusting for the fact that townspeople have died, that number becomes ~79.4% as opposed to the 60% that a player would normally have in this situation. at least if i did my math right.

[SKYEscrapers]

@mastina, would you agree that dunn's claim is a lot shadier than mine?

[Gypyx]

Hello, i'm a Reflexive Follower, no one visited me the whole game

Me - Reflexife Follower
Dunnstral - Odd-Night Loud Alien Neighbor
SKYE - 1-shot alien
Mastina - Combined tracker doctor
Akarin - ???

[Gypyx]

I think my flavor phrase is : Larger radars usually are used for longer range, while radars designed for detailed imaging of objects may be smaller.

[Gypyx]

How likely is a dunn / SKYE scumteam? Like, i kinda feel like that alien claim thingy is scum theatre

[SKYEscrapers]

feel free to join with me in voting dunn as I will probably do (not yet of course)

[Akarin]

Okay well I'm an N2 invéstigatoire

Innocent always means the investigative target is innocent, guilty means they could be guilty or innocent. Pretty sure that's the how-long-to-trust-a-red-traffic-light sentence.

I checked Dunn last night and he's

TOWN

[Akarin]

So possible teams are just
SKYE + mastina
SKYE + Gypyx
mastina + Gypyx

I'm leaning SKYE + Mastina pretty hard right now.