Mini Normal 2180 | Fake Peoples | Endgame

[Iconeum]

oh i see

[Iconeum]

who's your (strong?) townreads rn IV

[Gypyx]

Votecount 4.0

Iconeum (0)

Gamma Emerald (1) : Dunnstral

petapan (0)

DeasVail (0)

midwaybear (0)

Dunnstral (0)

innocentvillager (0)

Not Voting (6) : Iconeum ; Gamma Emerald ; petapan ; DeasVail ; midwaybear ; innocentvillager

With 7 players alive, it takes 54 votes to throw someone into a huge fucking pit, Deadline ends in (expired on 2020-12-18 05:41:36)

Spoiler:

[Gypyx]

Prodding Petapan

[innocentvillager]

my solve has been dv/gamma/mwb since n3 after swapping you for mwb and it hasn't really changed since

my confidence in this has wavered over time

my strongish townreads have been petapan then dunnstral

and i think you're town but if we get there id like to leave that to f3

[innocentvillager]

i think it is clear that gamma has no intention of proactively trying to get himself out of the elim

i think it's pretty likely that he's basically resigned himself/given up

question is:

is it defeated town who is burnt out by this game and just wants it to be over with?
defeated scum because we are on the right track?
defeated scum but doesn't give a fuck because we are not on the right track?

[innocentvillager]

i am leaning towards not the first one, especially because gamma has mostly been on the sidelines this game

which makes me go, okay, gamma is probably scum

at this point, maybe scumteam is banking on their other member(s) to finish it up, and that could explain the lack of action from other slots and just gamma as the universal scumread

if you are arguing scmteam doesn't bus here, your narrative of dunnstral/dv/mwb would suggest 2 out of 3 of them decided to LOLbuss DV over Albert yesterday, so clearly they are okay with bussing

[innocentvillager]

are 2 out of 3 scum really gonna be bussing their partner when there's a competing town wagon available is what i'm wondering here

(DV v ABR previous day)

both mdw and dunn were on DV, with DV being on ABR

that would make a ton more sense with either of mdw or dunn being town

if there' a

*if there's a deepwolf in peta for instance, then so be it

maybe that can be worked out with a solid flip here

and i see that you are worrying about this here

but then i wonder why not apply the same bussing logic to today

[innocentvillager]

I can't really do much rn, my engines are spent and I don't have auxilary power rn

i don't understand why town!Gamma is saying this when he is prime suspect and posting in other games and didn't play a huge part in this game

[innocentvillager]

here is some of Gamma Emerald's posting in a recent VT game of his

these are the last few posts they made before getting wagoned, on the day before ELo

though Gamma didn't flail around their elim in the same way that some town players have in this game (which is a small point in favor of their current posting being in their townrange), one of my takeaways (perhaps in a slightly confbiased way) is that they were more adamant about at least putting town into a good position going into ELo, and they were clearly focused on town's wincon, and at least invested it in.

Here I'm not really seeing that, posting into other games, literally going into just "ill post when the thread posts" etc, Gamma is not fighting for town wincon here, he is just posting easy answers to easy questions at him and not doing stuff unprompted. Basically I don't think Gamma gives up in this spot and that's what we've been seeing.

Spoiler: VT Gamma 2171 posting

Taylor and BM are not partners confirmed. I like that, I was town reading Battle Mage anyways now, so that's good.

Taylor is a little townier now because I expected them to not be Maf Doctor if they are scum, but they still have that chance.

Gamma
Pooky
Creature
Taylor
Battle Mage

I personally town read Battle Mage, and I want to town read Taylor.

I say fade Gamma. If Gamma flips town, then it's in the 4, one will be shot, then it'll be in the 3. and I just think BM is town here. so it'll be in the 2 left in the POE alive, meaning if we don't hit scum, then we still win if BM is town.

And honestly, I think Gamma flips scum.

If Gamma is scum doctor, then Battle Mage and Taylor are CONFIRMED town, meaning final scum is in Creature/Pooky.

If Gamma is scum not doctor, then damn scum is in the 4, but we have a pretty good scenario going,.

Okay, so here's what I think the plan should be.

If Gamma flips scum doctor, gunsmith Pooky, I'm shooting Creature. Ydrasse doctors Bob.
If Gamma flips scum not doctor, gunsmith becomes irrelevant, I'm shooting Taylor. Ydrasse doctors Flavor Leaf.
If Gamma is town, gunsmith Creature, I'm shooting Taylor. Ydrasse doctors 1 of me and Bob, they don't say it out loud.

In theory, if Battle Mage is town, this always wins us the game, but this is a big if.

I personally think the team is Creature and Gamma or Gamma and Taylor.

I have a plan in mind that should at least maximize town’s chances to win. DO NOT end the day before I can spell it out.

Pretty much the big thing I need to figure out is what the full plan should be on a VT flip.

One thing I haven’t considered at this point is actually is whether limming someone who can only be mafdoc or VT is better than limming a possible nondoc scum. If we vote out the nondoc we land in a situation where there is no effective path to autowin.

I don’t want a “funny” outcome, I want a damn win

And like, we have 6 whole days. We can break this setup.
@Pooky very much, yes.

And like, we have 6 whole days. We can break this setup.
@Pooky very much, yes.

I don’t understand your hold up.

Already have broken it to its max potential.

There’s a lot of moving parts in the case a VT is voted out.

What do we lose by taking a few days? What does scum gain?

What happens in the case the vig shot is stopped by scum doc?
What’s the best way to utilize a no gun result within the remaining unchecked suspects?
Is it possible to turn a VT elimination into an assured town win?

I’m trying to think 3 steps ahead here. Nothing will stand in the way of my Mechanical Condamnation.

There’s more to a kill being stopped by scum doc than you’ve probably thought of. Think about what it might say for some player’s alignments. Doctors have a specific restriction to what they can do that makes things very interesting.

I’m sure you can figure it out. Think about how doctors work mechanically. What can they NEVER do, at least in a normal?

ok I can sort of see what you're getting at but that's like an absurdly long shot and requires things that are unlikely to happen in any time-stream.

Who do you think Flavor should target tonight on a VT flip?

I think the choices should be within BM and Tay in that case.

Honestly I really think Creature is town by play so the only way I accept a plan before I figure out what I'm working on is if he's the proposed survivor.

Honestly I really think Creature is town by play so the only way I accept a plan before I figure out what I'm working on is if he's the proposed survivor.

interesting

what has creature done to make you sure he is town?

Contribute to discussion. Like, a LOT. Flavor said it before, if Creature is scum this game, he's come a long way. Creature is the only person I will accept losing to.

Or he sees you letting BM pass you by and is fine getting wasted as long as his pal can get by you.

I want to see Taylor do this (if she's scum):

Gamma-Battle Mage
Pooky-Creature
Taylor-Battle Mage

Don’t make sense as teams or are cleared.

Gamma/Creature
Gamma/Taylor
Gamma/Pooky - this one is now less likely.
Pooky/Battle Mage
Creature/Battle Mage? Is this one possible?

Where's Tay-Pooky and Tay-Creature in this?

Taylor/Creature is unlikely because both were off Shelly, but I guess possible. This is dealt with, though, because Battle Mage/Taylor can’t be partners.

how?

Gamma-Battle Mage
Pooky-Creature
Taylor-Battle Mage

Don’t make sense as teams or are cleared.

Gamma/Creature
Gamma/Taylor
Gamma/Pooky - this one is now less likely.
Pooky/Battle Mage
Creature/Battle Mage? Is this one possible?

Where's Tay-Pooky and Tay-Creature in this?

They don't win in my plan because Creature gets gunsmithed, and Taylor is no gun cleared.

Why doesn’t Pooky/Creature make sense?

[petapan]

i'm here i've just been kind of infused with a creeping dread and paralytic indecision as i look the game over and over and get basically nowhere with it because my reads lately have been very bad

[innocentvillager]

I'm reading Ico, IV, peta as town here

I'm reading Ico, IV, peta as town here

can you elaborate on whoever you care to? especially iconeum?

You and peta = I have good gut feelings on today, Ico = good gut feelings on yesterday.

Though I'm not certain whether mwb is scum or not, so I dunno

lawl

You wouldn't react like this as town

I forgot about IV

I think they actually look worse for defending ABR, seemed like a TMI viewpoint

I'm reading Ico, IV, peta as town here

can you elaborate on whoever you care to? especially iconeum?

You and peta = I have good gut feelings on today, Ico = good gut feelings on yesterday.

Though I'm not certain whether mwb is scum or not, so I dunno

how did you go from thinking IV had TMI on albert to getting a good gut feeling on him today?

Their response, and I didn't know of their pr earlier

Once ABR flipped the next step was to use the snapback to get DV miselimmed.

Is this theoretical, or are you saying this is what is happening?

I think DV was already in a position where they were likely to be flipped next

I'd like to vote gamma today

^ for who

VOTE: Gamma Emerald

This makes me feel kind of nervous even though it probably shouldn’t

Me or Iconeum?

I could be persuaded, but I'm not convinced right now

I'm reconsidering some things. I think the scumteam is Gamma/Iconeum/Midwaybear, or something close to that. The way Iconeum has treated both of our slots today feels very agenda driven, and like he's going for the win today

Gamma has a really bad solve (me/IV/mwb) and is transparently not playing as his town self

Midwaybear is poe, but he's arguing that the team is Gamma/Ico/you, so.... this read seems dubious

I'm acknowledging that this means I've had bad reads on you, Iconeum, and maybe MWB throughout this game. I think I misunderstood something with the prs that made Iconeum seem more likely town - I didn't realize IV was also claiming a pr, and it's possible for Iconeum's role to be scum aligned even if it's true

@Dunnstral Iconeum has a problem with you DV read evolution? I don't even seen anything in your ISO on your DV flip, why is DV no longer in your solve/how did your read change there?

[Dunnstral]

I'm town

Here's the thing...

I don't think midway and peta are scum together

Which means it would be to be one of those two, plus gamma, plus iconeum

And that seems less likely to me than it being you

So yes @iconeum

I'm wondering if we've both been town this whole time

I started reconsidering things here

[Dunnstral]

And then I mentioned wanting Gamma today, where earlier I wanted DV

[innocentvillager]

sorry that was supposed to be spoilered

anyway, the people who have been coasting today are:

innocentvillager (partly on purpose)
Iconeum (not even, just V/LA)
petapan (idk, he's just been paranoia/unsure or is faking it)
Dunnstral (but this is typical NAI Dunnstral)
midwaybear - they're ready to vote/have the solve and haven't been trying to push more discussion
DeasVail - they've been coasting all game, acknowledging that they haven't really done a ton this game, but still continuing to coast
Gamma - has given up

[innocentvillager]

I'm town

Here's the thing...

I don't think midway and peta are scum together

Which means it would be to be one of those two, plus gamma, plus iconeum

And that seems less likely to me than it being you

So yes @iconeum

I'm wondering if we've both been town this whole time

I started reconsidering things here

you think... that is a towny line from DeasVail that made you reconsider his alignment? I found it incredibly suspicious, how they've been gunning for your slot all game, we've seen like 6 town flips, and now he thinks you might be town???

[petapan]

yeah reading them i think iv's points on gamma make sense, i think, and i really didn't like how gamma sort of latched on to me earlier in the day when i was paranoia-ing at iv

[petapan]

i came to the conclusion i have 0 idea how to read dv

[Dunnstral]

I'm town

Here's the thing...

I don't think midway and peta are scum together

Which means it would be to be one of those two, plus gamma, plus iconeum

And that seems less likely to me than it being you

So yes @iconeum

I'm wondering if we've both been town this whole time

I started reconsidering things here

you think... that is a towny line from DeasVail that made you reconsider his alignment? I found it incredibly suspicious, how they've been gunning for your slot all game, we've seen like 6 town flips, and now he thinks you might be town???

Reconsidering things is towny, not scummy

I think him appealing to me as scum is less likely than him continuing to push/appealing to somebody else

[Dunnstral]

i came to the conclusion i have 0 idea how to read dv

Tell you what, you read me, and I'll recklessly 1v1 people by placing limlo votes until we win/lose. Right now I'm on Gamma

[innocentvillager]

I’m like, probably going to vote gamma emerald in the next 24-48 hours unless ico or gamma has something really cool to say about that slot

[innocentvillager]

I'm town

Here's the thing...

I don't think midway and peta are scum together

Which means it would be to be one of those two, plus gamma, plus iconeum

And that seems less likely to me than it being you

So yes @iconeum

I'm wondering if we've both been town this whole time

I started reconsidering things here

you think... that is a towny line from DeasVail that made you reconsider his alignment? I found it incredibly suspicious, how they've been gunning for your slot all game, we've seen like 6 town flips, and now he thinks you might be town???

Reconsidering things is towny, not scummy

I think him appealing to me as scum is less likely than him continuing to push/appealing to somebody else

Maybe he is finally realizing that you are too townread tho? And I don’t think it’s a towny reconsideration in this instance because the probability of you being scum goes UP without other information after 6 townflips, not DOWN

[Dunnstral]

If gamma flips scum and I die, are we voting Iconeum tomorrow or no?

[innocentvillager]

i don’t know Dunnstral

you are putting some doubt in my head about DV!scum which I was reasonably okay with for a while

[Dunnstral]

And I don’t think it’s a towny reconsideration in this instance because the probability of you being scum goes UP without other information after 6 townflips, not DOWN

If the only thing you are looking at is probability, sure, but they gave their reasons and they seem believable