Newbie 2045: A Midwinter Night's Dream - End!

[Illwei]

hasn't backed down on his mikul scumread even though it's going against what other people say

Another way to look at this is maybe he thinks that no one will end up voting out Mikul, so it's a safe place for scum to sit and not have to worry about being on a player that gets voted out and flips village.
If I felt more like it, maybe I would vote Mikul too, but I don't quite feel like looking for a good enough reason to fake enough suspicion or whatnot. idk.

[petapan]

hasn't backed down on his mikul scumread even though it's going against what other people say

Another way to look at this is maybe he thinks that no one will end up voting out Mikul, so it's a safe place for scum to sit and not have to worry about being on a player that gets voted out and flips village.
If I felt more like it, maybe I would vote Mikul too, but I don't quite feel like looking for a good enough reason to fake enough suspicion or whatnot. idk.

eh can be but that's advanced play and he doesn't seem the type

[petapan]

meh like safebet's scumreads seem against the grain, he's hardly "safe" as you called him, and i feel likethere's some decent belief there, not a lot of caution in his language, put a lot of people as town early, hasn't backed down on his mikul scumread even though it's going against what other people say

I just don't get a lot of townpings in his post, that's all it really comes down to for me atm

I'm not saying you're wrong necessarily

idk we can fight about it if you try to wagon him i guess

[BBmolla]

meh like safebet's scumreads seem against the grain, he's hardly "safe" as you called him, and i feel likethere's some decent belief there, not a lot of caution in his language, put a lot of people as town early, hasn't backed down on his mikul scumread even though it's going against what other people say

I just don't get a lot of townpings in his post, that's all it really comes down to for me atm

I'm not saying you're wrong necessarily

idk we can fight about it if you try to wagon him i guess

sounds like a plan

[petapan]

whats yr read on unwnd

[fferyllt]

Vote Count 1-8

But, enough about dreams in traditional Western literature and art. We have a whole world to explore as well as a few centuries! The supernatural, including strange dreams were a motif in 19th century Japanese art. This is a woodblock print by Utagawa Kuniyoshi called

The Dream of O-Iwa, A Normal Woman in a Disfigured World

, ca. 1830s. This piece is inspired by a powerful and terrifying story of a man, Lemon, who poisons his wife and commits several murders during his social climbing endeavors. His guilt brings on horrific ghost visions of his decomposing wife that ultimately drive him mad.

Lunar Martian

(3): Illwei, petapan, quiet

BBmolla

(2): unwnd, Lunar Martian

Mr Turtle

(1): BBmolla

unwnd

(1): safebet222

quiet

(1): Mikul

Not Voting

(1): Mr Turtle

With 9 alive, it takes 5 to eliminate.

Deadline: December 27, Midnight US Eastern Time.

Countdown: (expired on 2020-12-27 21:00:00)

Mod Notes:

-

[Mikul]

Quiet

28 - 31 - These are the posts that bothered me before

To properly roleplay my naïveté,

it feels only right and natrual to sheep for unwnd. @unwnd, please be my guiding hand, teach me the ways of killing scum.

In the end, I decided that I would commit to the role, and really embrace my inner sheep. @unwnd, I need you to come back and teach me fast, so I can make sure to vote for the right person today.

What's the GTO strategy here? We talkin mixed equilibriums? What's the vibe?

This entire post pings me as fake and forced


------

going to stop for a second to drive home this fishing for sympathy point, i was making. Here are ones that stick out to me

in fact, a total newbie. There's not much I can do on my first post to be town indicative, afaik, so why not pick the most fun thing and go with it.

I think I'm having a good amount of fun, but there's also the sad reality that I'm decently awkward as a person.

Quick Newbie Reads:

but I could be getting pocketed over that, and y'all experienced people make me paranoid.

Also hi Mr. Turtle, what is going on in your life? Am very excited for a (sort of kind of) 3rd party opinion on everything that's gone down so far. I'll be eagerly and patiently waiting .

The posting pattern that he starts with is trying to say he is a newb, and that he wants to be led to victory. Or that he has "newbie" reads and he makes sure to point this out. Reading back on this I think he has more experience that he is letting on. I actually think the "new player" thing is almost either for sure a reaction test or way to garner town cred. He may have not played mafia, but I'm sure he's familiar with it. He's to familiar with how the game functions and the intricacies of it.


------

37 - This read seems forced af. Like he's looking for a reason to offer a read. The reasoning behind the read is even more weird
44 - Pointing out that he is new and nervous. This in iso makes me really question this. He is really quick to point out how new he is. Mentioned this above, and I think he has more experience or is more familiar with this than he is letting on. The more I read this the more I think it's more scummy than town. I def do not read this as "noob town" as much in iso
68 - This is playing up other peoples mafia experience and downplaying himself yet again. This is habitual at this point
82 - offers read and again, says his "newbie list"

to point out who he is not interacting with up to this point.

He voted Molla
Went straight into cuddling with unwnd
Has engaged with peta
has engaged with safe bet
has engaged with il


There has almost been a complete separation from lunar , even reading past this. There is like no interaction there. He has asked about lunar and engaged in conversation about him, and said he could put his vote there at a point but never really engaged with him directly about why he is scum reading him.

Pedit : he did put a vote on him but still limited engagement with him directly




got to here and was going to post more but just got lost in cyberpunk. I think after this, he stopped doing a lot of what was bothering me and toned it down. Will glance over the rest tomorrow morning at work and see if its worth mentioning but most of the stuff i noticed ended there

[Lunar Martian]

Lunar has been a bit lurky

Lunar has been a bit lurky.
Lunar, what's your take on how newbie scum would play? Especially referencing Mikul's posts about me, and this post about you.

Sorry about not posting more - it's a busy time and I'm easily posting every 48 hours and I'm managing to keep up with the game.
As for how newbie scum would play: I'm not sure it would be helpful or useful for me to speculate. I don't know well enough anyway, but I'm not assuming anyone is new or plays a certain way without knowing more. I'm probably the newest person here anyway.

[Lunar Martian]

I..disagree? I don't really feel like Lunar gave much of a reaction at all. I'm tracking backwards here, but nothing to me stood out in terms of what BBMolla was supposedly looking for.

When I voted on them originally, I thought the reason (lack thereof) BBmola put a vote on Lunar was scummy, and generally was suspicious of their posting style. The post I made a note of + my metaskim + peta's testimonial + more recent interactions indicated to me that my reasons for voting didn't hold anymore. Maybe there are other reasons to vote on BB, but when I see them, I'll vote then.

Thinking about it, I realize that I don't read BB as town, just not scummy anymore. Given that I do read some other people towny (hi, Illwei), maybe keeping a vote on someone I read as null is better than unvoting.

Are we to take this to mean that you currently don't read anyone as Mafia, and me a null read is your best guess?

[Lunar Martian]

Peta, I'm finally getting around to answering why I think Illwei, quiet, and unwnd are town. I'm gonna do a quick version, just one or two things I saw from each one. There are more reasons we can discuss if you really think it's necessary.

Quick Newbie Reads:
(I reserve the right to circle back when I get some more time)
Lunar Martian: 4 posts short posts is not enough for me to have a read. I'm not sure what BBmola thinks is so scummy about Post #67, and I'm very interested to hear about it.
Illwei: Towny town to me. Seems relaxed, putting his reads out there, I don't agree with everything he says, but I see town in the way he says it.

unwnd was performative in a calm...something else...sorta way, and quiet was performative in a "this is a fun little bit here imma do it" sorta way.

Really like this read.

Part of me wants to sus petapan for just asking questions, but It's early D1 and there's also...not much...else...to do...

This also seems towny to me, even though I don't sus petapan for questions.

of course this kinda, doesn't apply as much to more experienced players, but hey! it's a newbie game, right? *sweats*

I don't think scum ever wants to be sweating day1.

Bonus round reads:

BBmola's playstyle confuses me, petapan likes questions and pressure, unwnd goes hard, where is Mr. Turtle, Mikul leans town to me, I want to like safebet222's defense of me, but I could be getting pocketed over that, and y'all experienced people make me paranoid.

I think this post is very likely to come from Town, since I think Mafia would want to discredit our mutual trust rather than reinforce it. The start of the post is all building cohesion and trust while Mafia would want to break it down. The end of the post is the only part of the post that has original analysis, and while there isn't much analysis Mafia would probably just skip most of it anyway and coast. I like quiet's vote on me a lot less, depending on how quiet responds to my questions. For now, I'm still confident in saying that quiet is Town.

[Lunar Martian]

do you have any townreads yet, though?

Haha! no! well...In my notes I have both you and unwnd as Town (nothing yet on the others quite) but that's mostly because of...hm let me see. Multiquoting...hate it...

I'm just gonna be... hm. Can I just, quote quote here?

Quiet, how are you reading your other newbies right now?

This...well it's not incredibly towny, but both this and

I say go with it. I have no read on peta right now and It'd help me as well

Which in my first readthrough I saw as attempts from unwnd as them trying to see how people were thinking/making them (them in this case being me) commit instead of being all wishy washy as I am =P

Reading through them again...Man, I hate having my reads list be 50 shades of Null. anyways-

Okay actually in reading over my notes I don't have specific posts that felt village, it was just you asking your questions, which I felt...well,

now

looking at it I like a lot more than how I saw unwnd originally.

Ignoring this, I immediately dislike unwnd and safebet a tad for having full reads, despite there not really much going on. Safebet

was

feeling pressured it seems, and unwnd was doing it under the pretense of teaching, so...okay...

in 92 you express that bbmolla's playstyle is not AI and say that you think he seems like an easy target, but in 101 say you're tempted to vote him out anyway. why is that?

For the exact reason that I said he's an easy target: He stands out as very different than the other players, and it feels like he isn't trying to solve. But someone else pointing it out, on an experienced player, puts me off. idk. paranoia?

As for Illwei, posts like this tell me Illwei is probably town. Rather than just responding to what people are saying, they go a level deeper by trying to get into the shoes of the person posting and trying to understand why they make the posts they do. That's an extra level of analysis that Mafia would probably have a hard time imitating.

[Lunar Martian]

As for unwnd (and this does apply to the others too) it's mostly a feeling. There's something tacit about the way they approach posting that reads as coming from Town to me. Perhaps I'm giving too much credit, but it *feels* like unwnd is trying to drive the game forward and get a solve.

[quiet]

Might respond more comprehensively later, but on first read through, only thing I think you got factually wrong was this:

he has "newbie" reads and he makes sure to point this out.

I was asked directly by unwnd to give my reads on the "newbies".

In post 72, unwnd wrote:
Quiet, how are you reading your other newbies right now?
Let's give this a shot.

In 82, I determined who was a newbie. In the next post after, I gave my quick newbie reads, as in, my quick reads on the people I had determined through metadiving were newbies.

Another aside:

He voted Molla
Went straight into cuddling with unwnd
Has engaged with peta
has engaged with safe bet
has engaged with il
There has almost been a complete separation from lunar

Don't have much to say to Lunar because Lunar hasn't said much. I've been mostly responding to other people talking about me vs. asking other people stuff; I want to do more of the later, which is part of why I said hi to Mr. Turtle and voted + asked Lunar about being lurky.

The posting pattern that he starts with is trying to say he is a newb, and that he wants to be led to victory.

As a final point, my first post was fake. It was clearly, obviously, and very intentionally a joke. As I've previously said, it was a bit related to his offer of teaching. He literally said that he was excited to teach his version of scumhunting to newbies. "be my guiding hand, teach me the ways of killing scum" is using his words in a joking way. I don't see literally any world, ever, where that is how I make an empathy play for him. If anything, I was taking the micky out of him. The second thing you noted is me doubling down on the joke. "@unwnd, I need you to come back and teach me fast, so I can make sure to vote for the right person today." I'll accept that it was a poorly landed, forced, not effective joke, but it can't really be SO bad that no one reads it as the bit it was.

Does anyone else read me as not a new player? I'll make the hard claim right now that this is my first game of form mafia ever on any site, my first game of mafia played with serious players, and that my only experience is some home games with friends+family, and watching video mafia online, plus reading over the strategy wiki. Since starting this game, I've been reading some threads of other newbie games, especially those with some of y'all in them. Unfortunately, various things about how the game functions (rvs, pocketing) didn't prepare me whatsoever for actually trying to make my own reads or how to leverage my vote best day1. It's like, I know I should always be eliming day1 and it's usually going to be fairly random, but that didn't prepare me for actually having to develop reads and deciding who to vote.

[quiet]

As for how newbie scum would play: I'm not sure it would be helpful or useful for me to speculate. I don't know well enough anyway, but I'm not assuming anyone is new or plays a certain way without knowing more. I'm probably the newest person here anyway.

This is kinda why I want you to speculate; I think your speculation on how newbie mafia would play could help me get a read on you.

As for Illwei, posts like this tell me Illwei is probably town. Rather than just responding to what people are saying, they go a level deeper by trying to get into the shoes of the person posting and trying to understand why they make the posts they do. That's an extra level of analysis that Mafia would probably have a hard time imitating.

I also think Illwei is town, but more because of tone than the deeper level analysis. I feel like mafia could easily fake deeper level analysis. Lots of people in this thread are giving deeper analysis, and some of them are scum. Why do you think scum would have a hard time faking it?

Are we to take this to mean that you currently don't read anyone as Mafia, and me a null read is your best guess?

What I meant by my comment on unvoting BBMola was only about BBMola. I used to read him as scum, and then he turned null for me, as the reason I had him down as scum turned out to be factually incorrect. BBMola may be scummy for other reasons, but he is not scummy for the reasons I thought he was; that's just BBMola's playstyle. I was wondering if it was better to keep my vote on BBMola despite my scumread being invalidated. That would result in BBMola, a null, retaining my vote. Since I read some people as towny (Illwei, Mikul), keeping my vote on BBMola might have been better than removing it.

I voted for you next because I wanted to hear more from you. Stole the idea from BBMola. You were slightly scummy for me early in the game, but I think you are mostly null for me now. Voted anyway, because I wanted to hear more, and also because E-2 puts pressure on everyone else. If someone brings you to E-1, or hammers, that gives us a lot of info.

What is your take on my BBMola unvote? Should I have left it on him? Do you have a read on BB at all?

[quiet]

To clarify, cause I screwed up that phrasing a little, you were still slightly scummy for me when I voted you. Your posts since I voted you have turned you mostly null for me now. I've liked your response to the pressure so far.

[Illwei]

Does anyone else read me as not a new player? I'll make the hard claim right now that this is my first game of form mafia ever on any site, my first game of mafia played with serious players, and that my only experience is some home games with friends+family, and watching video mafia online, plus reading over the strategy wiki. Since starting this game, I've been reading some threads of other newbie games, especially those with some of y'all in them. Unfortunately, various things about how the game functions (rvs, pocketing) didn't prepare me whatsoever for actually trying to make my own reads or how to leverage my vote best day1. It's like, I know I should always be eliming day1 and it's usually going to be fairly random, but that didn't prepare me for actually having to develop reads and deciding who to vote.

I think there's different kinds of new players. In my home Forum, new players are normally

completely

new to FM. they might lurk a bit during the early game, might fluff post because that's all they know how to do, might say something along the lines of "sorry, I'm new, Idk what to think of anyone right now." might throw votes around semi-randomly and in self defense.
In this case, I'm wary of the new players who seem to aware, like- maybe quieter, maybe not voting at all, or coming up with heavy reasoning behind a singular vote, etc.

I assume that there are more people like you, who do a lot more research into this before joining (I know I didn't, lol. Definitely not putting as much effort into this game as it seems you are) but I think that's what's making you seem like not a new player. You said you've watched people, you've read up on strategy, and you've read through previous games. so, you may not come off as a complete newbie at first, though it might show later on, who knows.

I know my only experience that I keep relating to you in my mind: I played a game, someone who claimed to be new seemed like they knew too much about how to play to actually be new. it was because they spec'd a few games and came from mafia-esque games backgrounds.
er-unfortunately in that case the person was scum. so- I keep trying to tell myself it's not the same case as you. (it really isn't, they spouted basically complete nonsense the whole game, you're seemingly putting in effort.)...(whether or not that Effort is AI...I haven't decided. right now I want to read you village on that, but also I feel like you would be putting just as much effort if you were scum. (er, well, I know I would. Personally I feel like I put in more effort when I'm scum because I know that I'll be alive long enough to actually feel like it's worth thinking about the game.) )

I think Newbies knowing too much can be a scumtell occasionally, because they have their team to guide them somewhat in how to play.

[Mr Turtle]

Mr. Turtle

, where are you?

I'm here now. I wouldn't be a turtle if I was late, now would I?

huh, was certain you'd end up being replaced. what are your thoughts on the game so far?

It's quite overwhelming, honestly. I've been trying to make reads, but I wouldn't call them successful as a clear majority of them are nulls.

Also hi Mr. Turtle, what is going on in your life? Am very excited for a (sort of kind of) 3rd party opinion on everything that's gone down so far. I'll be eagerly and patiently waiting .

In my headcannon, you are going to move very slowly through this game, then solve it completely on like day 3. Slow and steady wins the race and all that.

This game seems fast-paced, not quite what I expected with the long phases. I'll do some more backreading and hopefully improve my reads.

[BBmolla]

whats yr read on unwnd

cant tell if scum or just reads the game very very differently

still deciding

[petapan]

I also think Illwei is town, but more because of tone than the deeper level analysis. I feel like mafia could easily fake deeper level analysis. Lots of people in this thread are giving deeper analysis, and some of them are scum. Why do you think scum would have a hard time faking it?

this is pretty much the opposite of reality, tone is surface level and is very easy to fake (on the opposite end, some people just tend to write things in ways that come off as icky). faking tone is like second nature to me. faking real in-depth analysis is pretty hard, even for a veteran player. what i think is happening is you may be giving people in this game too much credit for things that don't mean a whole lot.

@Illwei

- 240 is a whole lot of words toward quiet, but it's all very general. do you have a read on quiet right now?

It's quite overwhelming, honestly. I've been trying to make reads, but I wouldn't call them successful as a clear majority of them are nulls.

that's okay, making reads is hard and if you're new it's to be expected you'll have trouble, seeing as knowing what to look for only comes with experience. can you give your specific feelings on anyone in this game? you don't have to reach conclusions, just talk about their posts and what they make you think.

[unwnd]

I have a few updated thoughts but there are a few things I want to talk about before I get there:

First and foremost - I see a lot of people giving out their thoughts on players but am not necessarily seeing commitment. While it is still decently early, I would like everyone to put forth their strongest scumread or the person they would be willing to lim the most today; You may also post your strongest townread as well in conjuction

Secondly - I'm really enjoying getting to know all of you and I love the conversations being put forth, but at some point all this conjecture will have to mean something. This is not to dismiss anyone, but I think closer to deadline we should start prioritizing our decisions and trying to tone down on speculation.

Thirdly - This is completely out of context, but I hope that nobody feels alienated by the way I've gone about things and I hope that you're all enjoying yourselves as much as I am.

[Illwei]

@Illwei - 240 is a whole lot of words toward quiet, but it's all very general. do you have a read on quiet right now?

Ehhhh
I'm reading them as town for now, but my gut wants me not to.
(Yeah I know, hedgy Hedgy, I appologize)

[quiet]

faking tone is like second nature to me. faking real in-depth analysis is pretty hard, even for a veteran player.

What I mean is that I think Illwei's tone during their deeper level analysis seems towny to me vs. just the fact that deeper level analysis exists and Illwei is doing some of it. I'm not exactly sure why you think deeper level analysis would be hard to fake; aren't the systems and tools you employ to analyze someone else's posts/votes/etc repeatable regardless of alignment? You can follow the same process as scum or as town.

The only difference in deeper level analysis as scum would be that all of your scum reads (besides bussing other scum) would be wrong, which means your logic would be incorrect somewhere along the way. But it's easy for town to get things wrong somewhere along the way too, so being wrong early isn't exactly AI. You could follow the same deeper level analysis process you normally do to identify some true town.

I liked the tone/the way that Illwei's deeper level analysis functioned. I read that as towny. That being said, I may be giving people in this game too much credit.

[petapan]

VOTE: unwnd

[unwnd]

VOTE: unwnd

Spoiler:

I get why you voted me, but you're reading it wrong

[petapan]

VOTE: unwnd

Spoiler:

I get why you voted me, but you're reading it wrong

do you?