Mini Normal 2185 | EFoBBBiO | Game Over!

[Frogsterking]

outworldER can you say something now that only a townie would say?

[OutWorldER]

sure I can.

that's a really dumb request.

[Frogsterking]

lol, seems kinda townie.

[Frogsterking]

I believe we will win if we BW AGamblingPig right now.

[Luca Blight]

I don’t see what BW’ing an inactive player particularly achieves, tbh. Let’s focus on the scummy players who are actually playing the game and let the replacement have some breathing space to catch up.

[Frogsterking]

https://www.researchgate.net/publicatio ... _Detection

I posted this earlier but it may have gotten lost in my walls of text.

This is a research study analyzing this website using machine learning by a student or professor at Stanford. One thing that they found was that scum are more likely to replace out. This is consistent with my own experiences on this website.

Not only is a gamblingpig flip more likely because of the replace out, but I townread the majority of the active players, and what little gamblingpig posted is scum telling. It seems the general consensus is that things are going pretty well for town already, and it makes more sense that scum would fail to get a player into the town block or be given any kind of voice if they're already playing D1 down a player.

I would love to NOT get a pro scum replacement to pop in here, calmly review the gamestate, and find the best way to mess things up. I'm fine with gamblingpig not being executed until the replacement appears, but I believe the BW should be started before and not after.

My theory on gamblingpig also aligns with your theory on the bug and lunar interactions, because their interactions make even more sense to me if their 3rd partner voted Lunar and then immediately went MIA.

[NoPowerOverMe]

I'm not opossed to AGB but I'm happier with bug.

[Frogsterking]

NPOM do you have any particular insight into outworldER's alignment?

[Frogsterking]

Strange timing but I'll reply in a bit. On the phone right now.

I also found the timing strange.

[Lunar Martian]

Based on interactions on this page I don't think that OutWorldER and Frog are both Mafia. I'm leaning towards Frog being Mafia and Out being Town.

[Luca Blight]

I get your point Frogster and agree with most of what you say there, but a few points:

1) a BW on a player being replaced discourages most players from replacing in, and probably means we’re more likely to get a highly skilled scum player.

2) a BW entirely formed on the replacement’s predecessor can pretty much be dismissed by the successor, especially when there’s so little content.

3) replacing out could be due to the time of year.

4) we have some decent leads already and can always address this slot later.

I agree this slot could well be scum, but I wouldn’t like to assume that already.

[Luca Blight]

Based on interactions on this page I don't think that OutWorldER and Frog are both Mafia. I'm leaning towards Frog being Mafia and Out being Town.

I’m about to sleep but please answer my questions on the previous page.

[Frogsterking]

These comments are from another game I played in that are relevant here:

A bit, but the fact you unvoted then put down reading. I probably would have flipped those two around.
As I also noted it was only one post of yours.
Has anything popped out to you in your reading so far?
Also, Looker, in an earlier post I noted the lack of a big wagon, now that has changed since I made it but

it reminded me of

bugspray D1

. Do you think that could be the case here?

So Buspray,

That was a person in 2145 who on D1 was being scumread a lot and had consistent votes on.

He was later elimed and was a pr.

The situation has changed and were different, but at the time I was thinking about that CFJ had been scumread through the phase consistently plus there was no real consistent cw. This no longer holds up due to the shift in gamestate. It was a reason for why I thought CFJ is town.
NM you are a pita to play with.
I must admit that my read on taylor has improved to a slight tr after a alight sr on her first posts. There seems to be better posts more recently.
A Nos, you said you felt cfj was gaslighting italiano then voted for him. Is there a reason for voting italiano then.

I believe flipping pig is actually safer than flipping Lunar or bugs.

[Frogsterking]

I get your point Frogster and agree with most of what you say there, but a few points:

1) a BW on a player being replaced discourages most players from replacing in, and probably means we’re more likely to get a highly skilled scum player.

2) a BW entirely formed on the replacement’s predecessor can pretty much be dismissed by the successor, especially when there’s so little content.

3) replacing out could be due to the time of year.

4) we have some decent leads already and can always address this slot later.

I agree this slot could well be scum, but I wouldn’t like to assume that already.

1) Ouch. I didn't realize replacements got to choose whether or not they wanted to replace into a particular game.

[Frogsterking]

@Grendel

Doesn't this quote below imply lunar and ER are less likely to be partners or am I misunderstanding the theory?

Based on interactions on this page I don't think that OutWorldER and Frog are both Mafia. I'm leaning towards Frog being Mafia and Out being Town.

[Lunar Martian]

I'm never voting for a slot that's inactive. The odds of a replacement being Town are higher than Mafia, just because there are way more townsfolk. The odds are therefore higher that the replacement will help Town than that they will help Mafia.

[Frogsterking]

I'm never voting for a slot that's inactive. The odds of a replacement being Town are higher than Mafia, just because there are way more townsfolk. The odds are therefore higher that the replacement will help Town than that they will help Mafia.

I've noticed in the past that players who make me angry are more likely to be mafia and this is the first time I've felt anger in this game so I'm interpreting this post as being AI.

[Frogsterking]

UNVOTE:

My intuition is telling me too strongly now to return to the Lunar wagon. I think I made it clear where I stand on the pig slot.

VOTE: Lunar

[Amélie]

The gist of it is that I think OutWorldER sometimes seems really scummy but sometimes ok. I cannot tell if it is just play style clash.

[Gamma Emerald]

Amelie's takes bother the crap out of me
Amelie what do you tend to look for when reading people? I asked you a similar question earlier but I don't recall an answer.

[Frogsterking]

Amelie might be scum Gamma

[Gamma Emerald]

I acknowledge that but I feel like I might just be disliking her for having different methods to me

[Frogsterking]

I was just working on a post pointing out how our intuition can manifest itself as anger, and Luca and I have both been triggered by Lunar.

I was about to point out that Amelie and Grendel have both been defending Lunar and arguably gaslighting.

Then I saw your post, and the fact that you're now being triggered by Amelie is a sign to me she needs to be resorted.

[Frogsterking]

And I’ve given Lunar every chance to engage with me, but when they just outright refuse to answer my questions while at the same time moaning that no-one is talking to them, then there’s nothing more I can do.

I get you're tilted by Lunar's behavoir, Luca. Maybe call it a night and come back tomarrow when you're refreshed.

RN if you're both town I think this 1v1 is just wasting space inthread.

This is the moment I was commenting on when I saw your post about Amelie, Gamma. Grendel's defense of Lunar here reminded me that Amelie has also been an adamant defender of Lunar.

[NoPowerOverMe]

I have a slight town read on ower because he's behaving differently than the game I played with him when he was scum.