Mini Normal 2187: PIFiMDM [game over!]

[Datisi]

Vote count 2.04

with 10 votes in play, it takes 6 to make a decision. day 2 ends in (expired on 2021-01-13 23:45:00).

execution

Hayker [4]:

Gamma Emerald, unwnd, Kazyan, Lunar Martian

unwnd [1]:

Elements

Elements [1]:

Hayker

Not voting [4]:

HeWhoSwims, Papa Zito, 2ndchosen1,

Dannflor

mod notes

~ unwnd is the new NoPowerOverMe
~ yeet

flavour

[unwnd]

Lunar does the scum thing of throwing shade, presuming intent in the worst light possible. They're either scum or exceptionally bad town, and either way need to be removed before endgame.

I haven't kept the biggest tabs on this game (generally just like replacing), but I would say my gutcheck on Lunar was town. They have a certain alertness in their posts that doesn't feel manufactured or has partners in mind

[unwnd]

Alright so my replacement was on Hayker so I guess I'll see what he saw in him lol

[unwnd]

Without looking at Hayker fully (not that it's a hard ISO), is the consensus made on him based on lack of activity? The 22 posts when I clicked the ISO button stuck out like a sore thumb. 827 posts into D2 actually doesn't seem that bad, but if I were assuming our disposition it would be that most people are presuming a lurkscum and the proclaimed apathy is assuming scum is lowballing

I can tell you right now that I think this is a bit short-sighted, based on my own previous experience and just in general. While this game didn't have a No-Lim, Innocent Things was largely driven by scum and we found ourselves in a position where it was increasingly hard to latch onto things or even manipulate townies, with the clause being that..the townies weren't there to manipulate. Do I believe that is what is happening here? Not really, but I think discussing perspective is what engages me

[Dannflor]

Okay, so Hayker is clearly scum. They are scum by their day play, their claim, and the other information that's been revealed about this game. And honestly, the longer we spend not killing him, the worse it is for town.

There's also something super secret special about my role that I haven't revealed yet that's pretty damning if I do say so myself.

Papa Zito is probably their scum buddy, and that's a very important thing to remember when I'm gone and Hayker flips red because he's clearly trying to set himself up to go deep in this game after Hayker flips red. The third scum could really be anyone, but I'd probably pick HeWhoSwims tbh for the egregious posts he made this day phase. However, after we flip Hayker the rest of the game is really up to all of you. I hope you all play a bit more after I'm gone.

So, let me spin you all a story of what scum has been doing for the past few days.

Part I: The Gambit

Hayker plays a not-so-towny Day 1. They start off with some awkward questioning and behave extremely oddly around the end of day. Alchemist reaches E-1 and understandably doesn't want to claim due to his role. Hayker, despite Agar mounting a case against them, and there being a lot of content since last time they posted, decides to simply say things like:

Anyways, it seems we have an E-1.

Traditionally we wait for a role claim⁹⁸

It's an awkward waiting game that just sort of screams "god I hope this day is over soon so I can stop pretending that I'm not really hunting for scum."

Hayker does claim they have limited power, okay. That still doesn't explain why they've chosen to respond to the very random things they've chosen to respond to when they do get a chance to pop in. Hell, Hayker's largest piece of content is a weird town case on Papa Zito no one really asked for. Unfortunately, Hayker's excuse doesn't really do anything to explain their play this game. Not to mention Agar's case on Hayker which goes more into detail on this front than I have.

But Hayker probably isn't going to survive very long no matter what. They haven't posted much and heavy suspicion is on them. What's the best thing a sinking scum player can do? Do as much damage to town as possible before going down. This is where the claim and quick hammer on Alchemist comes in. It's a gambit, we could not believe the doctor claim. But I told people to get off of him and get on Alchemist instead. Now, Hayker might have a shot at living even longer because of their claim, and they managed to swing the wagon away from scum at the same time. It's probably the best play they had at their disposal.

Part II: The Claim

I'm a doctor btw, since I've been brought to L-1. Get off me.

Then we have the claim. Because of Hayker's suspicious play, the wagon has swung back to Hayker rather quickly. If they want to avoid being eliminated, they have to do something quickly. And remember, scum are a lot more survivalistic than town in most cases. Hayker hasn't crumbed, they don't elaborate on their role like "oh I've been playing so passive because I'm the doctor," there's no story for it. It's just, "I'm the doctor haha you gotta stop voting me." It's pretty much the defacto mafia fake claim too. No one wants to accidentally kill the doctor, and as an added benefit, you might get the real town doctor to claim on your wait out.

In this case, this could have been a claim that Hayker came up with himself on the spot, or their scum buddies advised them to do. Here's the deal:

I'm not just an Innocent Child, I'm also a Jailkeeper Enabler. This means when I die, the Jailkeeper role will cease to function for all players. For those that don't know, the Jailkeeper behaves a bit like a combination between a doctor and a roleblocker, it is also traditionally a scum role. We can infer scum probably have a jailkeeper in this setup. Not only because the role is traditionally a red role, but because it makes sense balance wise. It is too swingy for my death to also involve town losing their jailkeeper, while my death also causing scum to lose their jailkeeper helps reduce swing. It also makes sense for scum to have a Jailkeeper in a game that has a town vig.

Okay, then. Scum have a jailkeeper, so what? Well, doctor becomes an even better fake claim for scum given they can semi-confirm themselves with it. That is, Hayker could actually protect against a vig shot and confirm themselves as a "doctor." It's a safe claim for scum to make in many ways. In a perfect world where the whole town belives in Hayker's "I misread the wiki schtick," Hayker might even live a whole other day phase.

Let's look at what we know about the setup, shall we? Let's even assume Hayker is town.

Innocent Child Jailkeeper Enabler
Town Jack-of-all-Trades (Neapolitan, Gunsmith, Tracker)
Bulletproof Townie
Town Vigilante
Town Doctor

Mafia Jailkeeper

This isn't balanced. The doctor does not make sense here as a town role. Let me quell any theories about this being a "role-madness" game, which I would be surprised Papa Zito himself didn't do if he wasn't scum. This is a normal game. While some normal games veer outside the expected bounds of PRs and number of mafia, most contain a standard number of mafia and a standard number of roles. Even games that have lots of PRs still try to be balanced. No matter what roles mafia have to after Jailkeeper, it doesn't make for a balanced team against the town powerhouse of a full doctor, a vigilante of some power, an investigative JOAT, an Innocent Child whose death HURTS the scum team, and a bulletproof townie. There's just no way to make that fair for scum.

How do we make this list fair for scum then? We remove the Town Doctor from the list. I'm fairly confident there aren't any other town power roles in this game, especially as I think they would have claimed by now in response to Hayker. Their claim does not make sense in this setup. This isn't even mod WIFOM, this is just simple reasoning that these roles can't co-exist for town. If this was a role-madness game, then it becomes even WORSE, because that means town has even more power we don't know about yet. And frankly, that's not possible.

The only reasonable explanation given the flips we have so far and the information I have, is that Hayker is lying and thus scum. No, him lying is not townie lying like Alchemist's was. It was purely to save his skin.

Part III: Damage Control

So, after that quick hammer by Hayker and apparent misread of Alchemist's role, Hayker was always going to be on the hot seat today. What is going to be the scum response to that? Well, Hayker is probably going to go down sooner or later. That is simply the byproduct of having Hayker quick hammer Alchemist in the way they did. Now, that doesn't mean scum isn't going to try and get some lasting value out of Hayker's slot, if they can't keep Hayker alive that is.

First, Hayker is wagoned as soon as D2 drops. Most of these reasons were already in my mind but I didn't share them because I wanted to see what scum might try to do if they thought maybe Hayker wasn't completely doomed. Myself, Gamma, and NPOM all immediately vote for Hayker.

Please don't slam a Hayker vote, I need to think.

Then this. Which is like, okay, fine. Zito didn't end up doing a lot D1, maybe he can finally spend some time obv-towning and nailing the rest of the scum team.

And, I think he's trying to perform towniness, but I've town read exactly 0 of his posts this day phase. I immediately thought Hayker had to be scum after seeing those flips, and I find it extremely curious that Zito didn't come to the same conclusion. Granted, I have slightly more information about the setup than he does, but instead he spends #765 WIFOMing about whether the doc claim could be real, and then says he'll do a deeper dive into the ISOs today. Okay, well that post was fairly useless. But he promises more content and analyzing. Most importantly, he doesn't want the day to go by before he can post more content.

Let me say that I do not read any of Hayker's posts since the day started as genuine. I think it is fairly clear cut that Hayker is scum, and while he MAY have not known what macho meant originally, his scum buddies certainly would have told him over the night phase. Likely, it was just a ploy to get the quick hammer out on a strong townie power role over scum as quickly and with as much plausible deniability as possible. By extension, the interaction between Papa Zito and Hayker in #766 reads rather... hollow to me. The "unless you'd care to explain" part gives the post a really weird tone. It's like Papa Zito wants to give Hayker an out despite how incredible Hayker's mistake is.

The rest of Papa Zito's posts this day phase have been, I'm sorry to say, useless. He's done a whole ton of busy work in posts like #773, #776, #801, #805, where he essentially just catalogs the game so far in vote form. It takes up a lot of space, and it looks impressive. But what is Papa Zito actually doing in these posts? What is he really saying? Did he uncover something that nobody had noticed from this "analysis?" Did this work help him progress his own reads? It doesn't seem so. Each of the posts is accompanied with something like "I'll go more in depth with this later," or "I don't really know what to make of any of this." The blaming of IC sheeping on not being able to get any info is just a really weird moment, not only because I've deliberately held back my influence on the game for large portions of it so that there wouldn't be such an influence, and also because Papa Zito uses it as an excuse to not do *any* analysis really. Like, one could still go deeper on the posters themselves and if the "sheeping" makes sense from a scum perspective or not, but having the IC influence be an excuse seems more useful to Papa Zito than anything else.

I don't really know how else to make this clearer than to say that Papa Zito's posts this day phase have been devoid of any real analysis or scum hunting. It does not seem to me he's really intent on looking for scum. Instead, his posts seem intentioned to make himself look townie by virtue of being content™. But there's nothing in the content. I've asked Zito about his reads, apparently Hayker is his top scum read, okay yes, obviously. But I would expect all of his work in recent posts to uncover something else relevant to his reads. What is it all for if not that? Now, apparently he scum reads Lunar, but nothing in his analysis really seems to support him coming to that conclusion. Instead, it seems to be a rather OMGUSy read.

In summary, Papa Zito's posts this day phase seem more focused on putting him a better position than actually finding scum. There seems to be no actual point to any of them, at least none that he's been able to articulate. As such, I can't help but feel his scum read on Hayker and subsequent interaction with him is scum theatre designed to give Papa Zito some town cred once Hayker flips with the potential of giving Hayker an out. There's a reason Papa Zito didn't instantly condemn Hayker as scum due to his claim when he came into Day 2, and I don't think it is because Papa Zito is inexperienced. Altogether, at least if Hayker isn't managed to be saved this day phase, at least mafia have bought time for Papa Zito to position himself better and hopefully have enough town cred to last until end game.

Part IV: The Third Mafia

The only remaining player I can really pick out as being a serious candidate for mafia is HeWhoSwims, and that is only reinforced by the posts he's made today. His ISO is threadbare to begin with, and most of the content they have is the fence-sitty and noncommittal stances that are inherent to unconfident scum players.

Idk. Maybe I believe too much in the good side of people or whatever but it would seem outlandish to me to fakeclaim a full doctor of all roles, place the hammer, defend the claim up and down and especially in a game where we already have 3PRs on the table right now -- would scum dare to do that? Would it be worth it to ask a possible other protective to "counterclaim", seeing if we have a doc its out on the table already, or is that incredibly dumb?

I don't know how experienced HeWhoSwims is, so I'm not going to expect him to know the ins and outs of role claiming. That isn't really what I take issue with here. What I take issue with is the odd framing of Hayker.

Why on earth does HeWhoSwims want to assume that Hayker is town so badly? I doubt it's because he believes too much in "the good side of people." He says Hayker has defended the claim "up and down" which is a very odd framing of the situation seeing as how Hayker has barely been active. It feels like HeWhoSwims wants to legitimize Hayker's claim by calling for a counterclaim and then saying Hayker's must be real once there is none. But honestly, if there were another town protective role, it would have counter claimed Hayker yesterday. This whole post just feels quite squicky in how it treats Hayker's slot as automatically innocent. Yes, scum would dare do that. I don't think any level of inexperience really explains how naive this post would have to be to be coming from town.

He also claims he doesn't know Hayker at all so this isn't based in any preconceived notion of the player or a relationship with them. HeWhoSwims also states that we at least shouldn't "eliminate Hayker right away." Which, if you really do believe Hayker is a Town Doctor, also is a weird way to approach Hayker's slot.

Part V: The Conclusion

We are killing Hayker today. I don't think there's anyway to justify them being town in this setup and their play has been aimed towards just surviving since at least halfway through Day 1.

The only reason I didn't ram through a Hayker elimination today was because I wanted to see how scum might position around their potentially falling scum buddy. There's been low activity overall this day phase, but I've managed to pick up a town tell in Gamma, confirm a town read on Kazyan, and while Lunar and elements haven't done much today, I haven't had any real reason to reconsider my old town reads of them.

Both Papa Zito and HeWhoSwims make sense as partners to Hayker as well as being scummy individually. Papa Zito's behavior and seeming desperation to slow the game down especially makes sense if these are his partners, as he probably feels some pressure to perform and be the scum member who makes it to end game. Nonetheless, there's enough to be suspect of each of these slots without the host of pre-flip associations.

Now, I could very well be wrong about my 3 picks for scum. But I'm not wrong about Hayker. Which is why we eliminate him today. I also strongly recommend vigging in Papa Zito/HeWhoSwims, even if I'm wrong there I think we hit 2/3 scum in that trifecta.

The longer this day goes on, the better it is for scum. Personally, I'd like to get the Hayker kill over with now. It's up to you guys to close out the game tomorrow, as I'll likely be dead. So, anyway:

VOTE: Hayker

anyone who wants to can hammer, just don't let Zito get off free for his posting this day phase

farewell and good luck tomorrow

pedit: hi unwnd

[unwnd]

Alright so Hayker claimed doctor

Uh what are the other claims besides the IC and are those claims causing people to consensus-lim Hayker? Needed a bit of help after all

[Dannflor]

that's e-1

[unwnd]

Oh hey dannflor nice case guess I'll read that instead of 20 more pages lmao

[Dannflor]

it's more condensed and may be conf-biased

but you can double check my sources

[unwnd]

From a replacement standpoint I think the Hayker aspect is solid, but the Papa Zito one required more of my actual presence in those instances. I think it's pretty much unlikely that a wagon gets flipped if the IC is calling for a death and writing a case on them either way. My vote will probably stay for that reason

[Dannflor]

I'm by no means 100% confident that Papa Zito/HeWhoSwims are scum. But they are my absolute top picks and since I'm likely to not be participating in this game anymore soon, I would like people to take a long hard look at both of them and particularly my case on them. And if we still have a vig tonight, even better.

But yes, Hayker is #1 priority.

[Papa Zito]

may be conf-biased

Indeed

[unwnd]

I kinda wanted that [perspective] but I'm sure I'll get it on flip. If Hayker does flip scum however I agree with the methodology that scum is aware their partner is fucked. Your own experience has left you that could be Zito, but is there anyone on this wagon you could suspect for getting towncred? And by chance of Hayker just being doctor (which to me feels pretty implausible purely going off your own role, I especially agreed with that paragraph), where would you look then? I'm someone who is really interested in considering the gamestate which is why I don't ever bother with rereads. I like figuring out the agenda of scum and what it means based on overall feel

[Dannflor]

prove me wrong tomorrow then please, Zito

[Dannflor]

Your own experience has left you that could be Zito, but is there anyone on this wagon you could suspect for getting towncred? And by chance of Hayker just being doctor (which to me feels pretty implausible purely going off your own role, I especially agreed with that paragraph), where would you look then? I'm someone who is really interested in considering the gamestate which is why I don't ever bother with rereads. I like figuring out the agenda of scum and what it means based on overall feel

Well, no one else has really tried to reposition themselves greatly this day phase, so I would look for someone who was already well positioned and content to stay that way.

Honestly, that would lead me to look at your slot.

[Dannflor]

I'm feeling pretty confident in town!Gamma now.

Elements might be another candidate for complacent scumster

[unwnd]

Well, no one else has really tried to reposition themselves greatly this day phase,

So everyone was just sorta like 'yup Hayker is scum'? Your case clarified My slot, Gamma and You all voted for Hayker. I could read Gamma and provide my own thoughts about him, I consider myself pretty good at reading his alignment based on the games we've played

[unwnd]

Tonalcheck and I'd disagree with you on Gamma, lot of his responses to me are pretty flat and posts like #615 in regards to his own attention span feels attributed to a guilty conscience where he knows he'd post more as town but instead is sorta listless. That's the definition I would ascribe to based on his content purely from ISO

[Papa Zito]

It would've been a lot easier if you'd interacted with me instead of sitting on a conclusion.

Your case is basically that I didn't want to rush the day and I put my notes in the thread. I think my progression to Hayker was pretty clear. I examined the Penguin votes and made progression on NPOM from that. I'd already expressed that Lunar is throwing shade, he did so with Penguin as well if you recall, that didn't come out of nowhere. Maybe you're due a re-read.

[Dannflor]

That would be helpful, I've gone back and forth on his alignment this game.

No one has really pushed anywhere significant this day phase. Everyone has been pretty content to sit back for the most part. This day phase isn't that long though, you could start from there as well and see what you make of the game state.

[unwnd]

Post more btw not necessarily being postcount, rather the content of his posts. His trajectory this game so far seems like an intentional means to not upset anyone, where-in his responses are very measured. I tend to backspace a lot more as scum because I'm really careful about the way I explain my thought process as I don't want to leave any holes for townies to pick up on. In that sense, I feel the restraint is intentional.

[Dannflor]

It would've been a lot easier if you'd interacted with me instead of sitting on a conclusion.

Your case is basically that I didn't want to rush the day and I put my notes in the thread. I think my progression to Hayker was pretty clear. I examined the Penguin votes and made progression on NPOM from that. I'd already expressed that Lunar is throwing shade, he did so with Penguin as well if you recall, that didn't come out of nowhere. Maybe you're due a re-read.

That's fair in that I've probably been a bit too suspicious of your want to slow down the day.

Perhaps if you put together a reads list I'd be able to figure out your progression more.

However, one of my biggest issues comes from how you've approached Hayker. Do you disagree with my analysis of the setup and his claim? I feel like you should have been more suspicious of him from the start, instead of the WIFOMy well it could go both ways post you started with. Am I wrong?

[Dannflor]

Tonalcheck and I'd disagree with you on Gamma, lot of his responses to me are pretty flat and posts like #615 in regards to his own attention span feels attributed to a guilty conscience where he knows he'd post more as town but instead is sorta listless. That's the definition I would ascribe to based on his content purely from ISO

I had Gamma as scum over Papa Zito until I reread him and found something I thought was towny, but I can't for the life of me remember what it was now. I'll try to find it in a little bit.

[unwnd]

The instance of Alchemist's death that you described to me is the most telling of my own thoughts, where it seems like in #662 is a stopgap instance and what follows is basically him trying to forcibly convince himself of a lim he knows is wrong. It's not that saying 'hm' or thinking about things makes you scum, it is everything surrounding that empty thought. Just a lot of mundane responses and mostly attuned to what is going around him instead of going out and seeking answers. I understand that you think Zito especially is sorta in that realm of thinking-too-much-but-not-really-productive, but for me Zito has either committed himself to a ludicrous degree (almost like inverse-bussing, where someone is SO convinced someone is town and ends up being scum), or they're going to eat a huge amount of crow.

[Dannflor]

that makes sense

Gamma was a big scum read of mine throughout Day 1 and I just sort of lost it along the way

Zito caught my attention because I expected scum to be doing *something* in response to Hayker's position and Zito's posts didn't read as particularly townie in process to me

but like it's not impossible scum just aren't doing anything