Mini Normal 2187: PIFiMDM [game over!]

[Dannflor]

I actually defended elements quite early because he seemed very outrageous townie to me

[northsidegal]

oh man this is annoying, i get no quality dann time (probably)

@datisi how much bribe money for you to "forget" to check the thread for a day or so

I'm here but I can't promise quality

what's your best hypothesis for why agar was the nightkill? i've just realized that i can't really square it

is it a setup thing? they wanted to keep the jailkeep ability for one night more?

[Dannflor]

vote:elements

I strongly dislike leaving a vote with no explanation. I'm not sure if the votes on lunar quite count as a bandwagon, but they feel opportunistic to me.

vote:elements

I strongly dislike leaving a vote with no explanation. I'm not sure if the votes on lunar quite count as a bandwagon, but they feel opportunistic to me.

VOTE: Hayker

[Gamma Emerald]

The way Hayker talks about his elements scum read so much to subvert that with a Kazyan vote that’s only justified in the last line of the post tells me Hayker is doing the “push a buddy vote a townie” play, which makes Kazyan town

so you're confident in elements being scum?

I think the different pieces of the puzzle form that conclusion (Hayker interactions, Elements being among those who sheeped the IC, elements feeling pretty absent rn)

[northsidegal]

I actually defended elements quite early because he seemed very outrageous townie to me

i think that early on the whole "going to vote each player once" thing matches perfectly with what it looks like when a townie does an outrageous thing and people get upset at it and decide to vote the player more out of anger or whatever than it actually being scummy

as the day goes on though i think that his play gets less defensible under that sort of idea

[Dannflor]

oh man this is annoying, i get no quality dann time (probably)

@datisi how much bribe money for you to "forget" to check the thread for a day or so

I'm here but I can't promise quality

what's your best hypothesis for why agar was the nightkill? i've just realized that i can't really square it

is it a setup thing? they wanted to keep the jailkeep ability for one night more?

I don't know if scum are informed of my jailkeeper interaction. I'd imagine they might have to be? But if not they wouldn't know killing me is bad for them.

But, alternatively, it could just be that they weren't afraid of my reads and people seemed willing to sheep me enough that they were confident I'd just drive another mis elimination. Instead, they just killed my top town read, which I stated repeatedly was agar.

[Gamma Emerald]

oh man this is annoying, i get no quality dann time (probably)

@datisi how much bribe money for you to "forget" to check the thread for a day or so

I'm here but I can't promise quality

what's your best hypothesis for why agar was the nightkill? i've just realized that i can't really square it

is it a setup thing? they wanted to keep the jailkeep ability for one night more?

AGar had a strong SR on Hayker
I don’t think that’s enough for scum to have killed him but that’s a strong reason

[northsidegal]

snip

yeah check this out though:

Alchemist, I'm curious about your current thoughts on Elements. You voted him early on , asking him about their post, and havent seemed to elaborate much on the subject since then.

[unwnd]

I'm very comfortable with my vote on elements right now. He pushed someone elses vote, opportunistically hopped on the lunar wagon, OMGUS voted me. I feel the pressure is where it is needed for now.

Can you explain your last two votes elements?

*they
The LM vote was the same reasoning as asking for Ben to vote NPOM
The vote on you was an "I ignore your opinion of not liking naked votes"

Reading elements+Hayker right now

There's a strong interaction between the two early, but then it mostly peters out. Hayker retains a decent amount of skepticism towards them but Elements doesn't seem to comply all too well, and actually switches over to Gamma despite what you highlighted Dann

[Dannflor]

Scum being fine keeping me alive might clear Zito. He was next in line in my scum reads given what I posted in thread D1.

[unwnd]

Gamma do you like busing as scum? This might sound like a stupid question, but entertain it anyways

[northsidegal]

But, alternatively, it could just be that they weren't afraid of my reads and people seemed willing to sheep me enough that they were confident I'd just drive another mis elimination. Instead, they just killed my top town read, which I stated repeatedly was agar.

AGar had a strong SR on Hayker
I don’t think that’s enough for scum to have killed him but that’s a strong reason

yeah, something doesn't really square right with either of those explanations to me though. i had forgotten that we don't necessarily know if they knew you're a JK enabler, so them being informed of something is a possibility.

i've done some reviews with datisi that i could probably check to get a better idea of mod setup spec and how likely that is but that'd probably be unfair so i won't.

[northsidegal]

Gamma do you like busing as scum? This might sound like a stupid question, but entertain it anyways

if you're thinking about the gamma/elements thing going on right now my current hypothesis (read: confirmation bias) is that it's scum caught pushing each other down to try to stay afloat. i get that i'm basically just quoting my wiki page at this point with "outrageous things" and that line but still, that's my actual read of it

[Dannflor]

my heart of hearts tells me

[dannflor]
[bendover, elements, npom]
[lunar, hayker, 2nd chosen]
===
[heWhoSwims, kazyan, penguin]
[alchemist, gamma, papa zito]

something like that

I posted this halfway through D1 and then started saying Gamma might be town shortly after. It's not completely out of the realm of possibility that I had 3/3 scum in my top half.

[Gamma Emerald]

Gamma do you like busing as scum? This might sound like a stupid question, but entertain it anyways

I try to be strategic about it, but yes.

[Dannflor]

Like, aside from condemning Hayker for sure for sure. I don't think I've been a particularly scary force at any point in this game. If mafia are informed as well, that's more than enough reason to not kill me.

I don't really think Agar was chosen for any reason in particular other than being widely town read

[northsidegal]

Gamma do you like busing as scum? This might sound like a stupid question, but entertain it anyways

if you're thinking about the gamma/elements thing going on right now my current hypothesis (read: confirmation bias) is that it's scum caught pushing each other down to try to stay afloat. i get that i'm basically just quoting my wiki page at this point with "outrageous things" and that line but still, that's my actual read of it

to expand on that, this elements scumread by gamma seems to have come out of nowhere starting on day two. i get that he says it's because of the sheeping of the IC, but there's practically no trajectory there from day one

Like, aside from condemning Hayker for sure for sure. I don't think I've been a particularly scary force at any point in this game. If mafia are informed as well, that's more than enough reason to not kill me.

I don't really think Agar was chosen for any reason in particular other than being widely town read

fair point. there is i think a common misperception of people thinking that scum plan their moves much more than they actually tend to, so it's possible that there were actually like four posts in the scum PT overnight and one person just decided "the IC isn't onto us so let's just kill this guy".

[unwnd]

I'm very comfortable with my vote on elements right now. He pushed someone elses vote, opportunistically hopped on the lunar wagon, OMGUS voted me. I feel the pressure is where it is needed for now.

Can you explain your last two votes elements?

I like Alchemist and Gamma
VOTE: penguin

Why vote Penguin here?

I've still got a large chunk of the player list to get through

I know you said you tend to vote most everyone, but why are you still doing votes equivelent to RVS votes. This feels very much like active lurking to me.

I'm fond of NSG's reappearance so far

This could just be a game where scum kinda sucks and they're rolling over

[Dannflor]

Check elements' trajectory on Gamma too

iirc elements had a town read on Gamma D1 but that shifted to putting him in the PoE today at some point

[northsidegal]

@dann how strong is your townread on kaz?

also, any contingencies in the wild world where hayker flips town? don't have to dedicate too much time to it but it's worth at least considering, stranger things have happened and maybe he was just a townie deciding to fakeclaim

[Dannflor]

This could just be a game where scum kinda sucks and they're rolling over

don't say things like this and make me paranoid of you

oh well I won't have to deal with potential deep wolves for very much longer anyway

[unwnd]

I stated it before but I'd be absolutely fucking floored if Hayker was town at this point

If somehow? Somehow, he flips town

I'd have to rethink a few things, maybe the people who are voting him I'd be more keen about (besides Gamma)

[Dannflor]

@dann how strong is your townread on kaz?

medium? I think Kaz overjustifies himself to the extent that it's towny. Meaning, he's overly transparent in a way that reminds me of myself in certain town games. I think there are a few posts (namely the one where he made like a 10 bullet point list to justify sheeping me off of elements that everyone jumped on) that seem surface level scummy, but I think that post and others like it reveal his mindset and are rather hard to fake as scum. I think people are noticing the self-awareness as scummy but missing how deep that his thought process is actually going 10 bullet points deep. He's not making up those reasons to seem towny, those are the actual things his mind is thinking through.

At least that's my take. Kaz could be scum but I haven't spent too much time paranoia-ing the slot because he's been one of the slots more consistently posting content that I'm happy with, similar to Lunar Martian.

also, any contingencies in the wild world where hayker flips town? don't have to dedicate too much time to it but it's worth at least considering, stranger things have happened and maybe he was just a townie deciding to fakeclaim

blargh. I don't really think it's worth considering or devoting time to. It would certainly explain more why the game was so inactive today?

My instinct would be to look more towards players that didn't necessarily want to kill Hayker right away. I think the game's natural response would be to be more paranoid of you/unwnd, but I don't think an implausible Hayker town flip automatically makes it any more likelier for either of you to be scum.

[Dannflor]

to rephrase that last sentence, don't automatically paranoia NSG/unwnd out of the game please if Hayker flips town

not that I think it's gonna happen at all

[Gamma Emerald]

I don’t think I’m going to have much need for contingencies on a Hayker town flip but I’d probably re-home in on those I thought were clear when I presumed Hayker was gonna flip scum