Mini Normal 2187: PIFiMDM [game over!]

[Dannflor]

I'm not a huge fan of #1307

like at all

it's classic iioa and despite bringing up two posts from two people in a somewhat critical manner he dodges really giving any reads, which is pretty important giving how little time we have

earlier when i unvoted elements i was considering kaz first given he's the commonality in kaz/elements and kaz/2nd, but then i re-metad elements

apologies if I missed this, does this mean you aren't considering 2nd/elements?

[northsidegal]

kaz/elements and kaz/2nd

(which currently seem to me to be the two most likely teams, if it wasn't clear)

thing is i don't have a lot of reasons to scumread 2nd individually and honestly the connections between kaz and 2nd are a little sparse, at least purely from memory

[unwnd]

I find the dissonance between Elements #1268 with a lot of 'oh man, my reads are crap and I should've died BUT I am very certain unwnd is scum here' and then after a few posts going 'ok maybe I scumread Kazyan more than unwnd' a means of trying to convince oneself in very peculiar ways. Refer that back to Kazyan who votes me on the basis of what I said about reading the gamestate

[unwnd]

I meant 2ndchosen with above

Pretty sure Kazyan has hard townread me

[Dannflor]

I'm willing to take a dirty meta read on NSG if you think it's strong enough, but a bit of elaboration helps

frankly, I don't think she has the motivation for all these solo solving sessions as scum

I've seen her scum game once and it was very reactive and it often felt like she was forcing herself to solve

I've read a few more of her games and while she can suffer from inactivity as both alignments due to business or whatever, it generally tends to affect her scum games more. I don't know that I would put this game completely out of her scum range just because I don't have enough direct experience with her to accurately make that judgement off of meta. But I think it's close to it.

There's a lot of little things about her posts like her trying to call out the scum team right away and then getting disappointed later when she didn't get those bragging points that are all very emblematic of her town game. In general, the fact that she's been so active and *unprompted* already puts her inside her town meta. But more specifically, I think the motivation behind her posts is clear and genuine and the solo solving moments seem clearly geared towards trying to get something out of the game than engineered to appear town.

[northsidegal]

I'm not a huge fan of #1307

like at all

it's classic iioa and despite bringing up two posts from two people in a somewhat critical manner he dodges really giving any reads, which is pretty important giving how little time we have

earlier when i unvoted elements i was considering kaz first given he's the commonality in kaz/elements and kaz/2nd, but then i re-metad elements

apologies if I missed this, does this mean you aren't considering 2nd/elements?

this isn't a great answer because it's basically circular but i'm not really considering that (at least right now) because it hasn't occurred to me once that it could be a thing. not to say i haven't even thought it possible, but at no time during the game has it come up in my thinking, if that makes sense.

also, if that's not really good enough (which, admittedly, it isn't), 2nd isn't behaving how i'd expect given someone with elements as a scumbuddy. it seems like elements is on the chopping block and so you expect the buddy to either be defending, bussing or chainsawing, i'd think. you could say 2nd is chainsawing unwnd who is also elements' push but it'd be a weak chainsaw. might just be the way 2nd pushes things even as scum in this situation but my money's on that not being the case

[unwnd]

I think scum's goal here is surviability. Do what seems the most townie. I think 2ndchosen would fit this description the best but I worry that they simply just believe in their way of playing. From what I understood, 2ndchosen is from another site where Hayker invited them to play here. I think 2ndchosen in one of his responses to me why he didn't vote Hayker initially is that 'we typically don't vote the doc if there isn't a cc.' It's such a puzzling way to justify not voting a mate when all the cred is waiting for you. Furthermore, I'm pretty sure Hayker didn't focus on 2ndchosen that much? If my memory serves me right. You'd think with the direct relationship they would be more present in reading each other, but instead there is a clear distance between the two. The awkwardness there made me want to press 2ndchosen further, but instead of getting something I could pick up on, he just still has this very alien approach to the game that really doesn't match the way I think about it.

[Dannflor]

am I crazy for saying an elements/Lunar Martian makes a lot of sense to me

[unwnd]

I'm townreading Lunar really heavily in terms of them being a relatively new player and not having a nuanced town/scum game to pick up on intentional habits to manipulate me (or others)

[northsidegal]

maybe a little crazy, lunar has been going pretty hard on elements which i guess defies my expectations of how a scum lunar plays around his scumbuddy

[unwnd]

Read this however you want but it's just us 3 talking this game becomes way less scary to me lmao

[Dannflor]

Would love to yeet within {Hayker/NPOM/LM} today.

No desire to yeet within {PZ/GE/Alch/Elements} today.

{PP/Kazyan/Swims/Chosen} don't feel like flips where they'd give enough information as currently constructed, but there is likely some scumbag in there.

VOTE: Hayker

this kill makes a lot more sense if two names in Agar's yeet 3 are scum. I have no decent reason to think NPOM/unwnd is scum.

then there's also the fact of LM and elements just suddenly softly bussing each other this day phase

Previously, they both had some sort of town read on the other, but that suddenly changed round about when nsg came out with a scum read on elements. There's no clear reason for this shift either.

And as much as I tonally town read LM's D1, this and the last day phase has been a lot of poking and prodding and wheel spinning. (granted that's been a lot of us, but rereading it feels less genuine)

[Dannflor]

maybe a little crazy, lunar has been going pretty hard on elements which i guess defies my expectations of how a scum lunar plays around his scumbuddy

I thought that too but I just find their read histories of each other weird

[Dannflor]

Can someone tell my why they think LM is scum again?

It's unwnd
If not it's LM and Kazyan
But if it's not unwnd my reads are total garbage

what if it is kazyan and LM

[unwnd]

Tell me what you both think about my #1331 when you get the chance

[Dannflor]

I want to give a list of my thoughts.
These folks are of the Town: Gamma, Hayker, Ben, Kazyan probably, Papa Zito maybe.
Elements has a fair shot of being Town.
Unsure of Alchemist, HeWhoSwims, and 2ndchosen1.
I think PenguinPower and NoPower are probably my two top picks for Mafia.

OK nevermind. I don't really see the issue with what Elements said though?

I think northsidegal is Town for what it's worth. I agree with her reads so far to an almost alarming degree. The only thing I disagree with is that I have Papa as Mafia over elements.

i also think that we never

really

hammered out a truly satisfying reason for agar being killed, and with more insight now we might be able to look back and figure out a better reason. at the very least it helps to know for certain that hayker was scum.

I think NSG makes a very good point that we should look into. Especially the bit about scum!unwnd

don't try to twist what i say for yourself.

Feels like distancing between Elements and northsidegal.

I dunno

Maybe something happened between day phases that I'm not seeing, it's just a really weird coincidence that it suddenly changed for both of them without much explanation

[Dannflor]

I think scum's goal here is surviability. Do what seems the most townie. I think 2ndchosen would fit this description the best but I worry that they simply just believe in their way of playing. From what I understood, 2ndchosen is from another site where Hayker invited them to play here. I think 2ndchosen in one of his responses to me why he didn't vote Hayker initially is that 'we typically don't vote the doc if there isn't a cc.' It's such a puzzling way to justify not voting a mate when all the cred is waiting for you. Furthermore, I'm pretty sure Hayker didn't focus on 2ndchosen that much? If my memory serves me right. You'd think with the direct relationship they would be more present in reading each other, but instead there is a clear distance between the two. The awkwardness there made me want to press 2ndchosen further, but instead of getting something I could pick up on, he just still has this very alien approach to the game that really doesn't match the way I think about it.

To be fair... I originally instructed not to vote Hayker when he originally claimed D1. I think 2ndchosen was referencing that.

I think this is a good analysis though and I didn't pick up on their connection. I owe 2ndchosen a closer reading

[northsidegal]

I think scum's goal here is surviability. Do what seems the most townie.

by the way i feel like this type of analysis is sort of flawed

obviously you can postulate what you think scum's goal is and what actions they're trying to take but i think that in doing so it's really easy to miss the fact that often what scum

can

do and what they want to do don't align

for instance an analysis along this line of "scum want survivability" might say that elements is facing a ton of pressure, is under the spotlight and even owned up to a lot of the case on him, which doesn't align with what scum are trying to do, so he might be more likely town. but that ignores that a lot of that is external circumstances outside of elements' control, and that given the choice they'd likely not be in the spotlight at all

just to be clear i'm practically not even talking to you at all and just talking to myself because i have no idea if you're even thinking anything along the lines of the imaginary opponent i'm arguing against in this post, but i just felt like saying this i guess. that one sentence you posted just sort of got me thinking about this

[unwnd]

The way I looked at it and why I mentioned that is that I was sorta talking myself through 2ndchosen's behavior. My vote is on him for a reason, and if his agenda was just 'do what looks the most townie' then I could justify my vote further. It turned into a bit of unintentional waffling on my part though because what I really desire is not necessarily answering stupid questions but interacting in real time kinda like this right now. I really don't know why doesn't prefer that, or plays like a island.

[northsidegal]

maybe a little crazy, lunar has been going pretty hard on elements which i guess defies my expectations of how a scum lunar plays around his scumbuddy

I thought that too but I just find their read histories of each other weird

fair, checking lunar's ISO today has been more of a death tunnel on elements than i realized before you brought it up

[Dannflor]

I also think what town thinks scum's goal should be is often not what scum end up actually doing simply because actively going for that specific goal is out of their skill range. Meaning I think there's a lot of scum players that just don't know how to play for specific goals beyond the basics of trying to look townie

[Dannflor]

maybe a little crazy, lunar has been going pretty hard on elements which i guess defies my expectations of how a scum lunar plays around his scumbuddy

I thought that too but I just find their read histories of each other weird

fair, checking lunar's ISO today has been more of a death tunnel on elements than i realized before you brought it up

It just comes out of nowhere and I don't get as much of a sense that Lunar is trying to solve the game this phase than I do from Kazyan or even 2ndchosen

[unwnd]

I guess another thought I could entertain is

Does scum care if their partner survives as well? Occam's razor suggests yes, and that bussing would only come in play at this point if it became an inevitability. I don't really feel like Hayker got bussed in that sense, and the mafia were just aware his time was up. I mean heself-hammered for christ's sake. So with them just 'well shit' then I don't really feel this team is all that organized. You might disagree with that NSG but I feel like if the team were watching each other's backs carefully Hayker would've never made the mistake he did. All of D2 was quite short in hindsight with everyone pretty much going 'wtf was that Hayker'. What does that mean for this day? Elements has pretty much been close to the most common scumread and I don't really feel anyone has defended him? Why would scum after losing one mate just decide to throw the other aside unless they were very confident they were fooling town in the first place.

[northsidegal]

I also think what town thinks scum's goal should be is often not what scum end up actually doing simply because actively going for that specific goal is out of their skill range. Meaning I think there's a lot of scum players that just don't know how to play for specific goals beyond the basics of trying to look townie

this is definitely true, only the more "power" scumplayers on site really actively go hard on goals that benefit them, most scum players tend to just try to imitate their town game

funnily enough in my experience this sometimes makes "powerwolves" easier to catch, because both they make themselves really prominent through their pushing and they don't try to imitate their town game as much. i've caught alisae a few times like that, for example. the real problem there comes in pushing them

[Dannflor]

Why would scum after losing one mate just decide to throw the other aside unless they were very confident they were fooling town in the first place.

I guess this is kind of why I just suddenly started considering Lunar. As far as I remember no one has really thrown any suspicion in his direction for quite some time