Mini Normal 2187: PIFiMDM [game over!]

[Dannflor]

I also think what town thinks scum's goal should be is often not what scum end up actually doing simply because actively going for that specific goal is out of their skill range. Meaning I think there's a lot of scum players that just don't know how to play for specific goals beyond the basics of trying to look townie

this is definitely true, only the more "power" scumplayers on site really actively go hard on goals that benefit them, most scum players tend to just try to imitate their town game

funnily enough in my experience this sometimes makes "powerwolves" easier to catch, because both they make themselves really prominent through their pushing and they don't try to imitate their town game as much. i've caught alisae a few times like that, for example. the real problem there comes in pushing them

Yeah I myself don't even know how to play in that goal oriented way at scum, I'm still stuck at that town-emulation level

and honestly, I don't really think any of our current suspects can play to that level? admittedly I don't have a lot of experience with any of them but it's usually pretty easy to tell when a player has that type of range

[unwnd]

It's not a thought I want to paranoia myself into consdering this point until a few things happen. I could also maybe see Kazyan/NSG in that position as well which is why I asked you more about your confidence in NSG read

[northsidegal]

It just comes out of nowhere and I don't get as much of a sense that Lunar is trying to solve the game this phase than I do from Kazyan or even 2ndchosen

how set are you on elements scum in the first place?

Elements has pretty much been close to the most common scumread and I don't really feel anyone has defended him? Why would scum after losing one mate just decide to throw the other aside unless they were very confident they were fooling town in the first place.

i pointed out what felt like motivated reasoning from kaz to not scumread elements earlier but i sort of come to agree with you in that his reaction after my posts to him where he voted elements really gave me pause.

[Dannflor]

It's not a thought I want to paranoia myself into consdering this point until a few things happen. I could also maybe see Kazyan/NSG in that position as well which is why I asked you more about your confidence in NSG read

I'm not really considering NSG at all at this point

[northsidegal]

Yeah I myself don't even know how to play in that goal oriented way at scum, I'm still stuck at that town-emulation level

and honestly, I don't really think any of our current suspects can play to that level? admittedly I don't have a lot of experience with any of them but it's usually pretty easy to tell when a player has that type of range

yeah, i think nobody in this game plays scum at that level really, i guess it's just an interesting subject to talk about i feel

[unwnd]

You saying that does not help the paranoia I was referring to You/Kaz already lol

[northsidegal]

You saying that does not help the paranoia I was referring to You/Kaz already lol

why

[northsidegal]

i won't go hard on self meta here (in fact this will probably be my one and only post on it this game), but i am hilariously obviously playing my town game here. i don't think i've ever once made a post like my case on elements as scum

[unwnd]

Just the whole feeling of 'is it really just elements'

Cause if true, then what I said about scum being really confident they can win this game with another mate down is telling.

[northsidegal]

can't say i fully understand what you mean

[unwnd]

Just wraps around to what I said about the whole bussing situation that sits in the back of my mind taunting me

[unwnd]

Regardless I just wanna see what 2ndchosen has to say and see if we can't meet compromise, and maybe Elements as they seemed to be coming around to Kaz possibly being scum

[Dannflor]

Cause if true, then what I said about scum being really confident they can win this game with another mate down is telling.

I don't really think this has to be true at all either though

scum, *especially* inexperienced scum can often resort to bussing before they need to precisely because they're starting to feel cornered and they think that'll magically fix it

I don't think it's right to assume that elements being scum means their partner has to be someone who is confident in being town read

[Dannflor]

i won't go hard on self meta here (in fact this will probably be my one and only post on it this game), but i am hilariously obviously playing my town game here. i don't think i've ever once made a post like my case on elements as scum

I mean I can reinforce this.

No offense to nsg, but this game is beyond the range of any scum game I've ever read from nsg, and I've read a few.

NSG also has somewhat of a reputation of being a polarized player, if that helps unwnd.

[unwnd]

My list looks like this right now even if it's 7 people

Dann
Me
Lunar
NSG
Kaz
Elements
2nd

I'm absolutely confident one of 2nd/Elements flips scum, and now it's been a case of being choosy and determining which reality feels the most true to me. I just need a bit more before I determine if I'm flipping my vote or staying on here. Would you be willing to trust my judgment (despite being wrong on Gamma) if that were the case?

[Dannflor]

how set are you on elements scum in the first place

not like "will never reconsider dead set" set, but like, pretty set?

[northsidegal]

how set are you on elements scum in the first place

not like "will never reconsider dead set" set, but like, pretty set?

okay same

[northsidegal]

I'm absolutely confident one of 2nd/Elements flips scum, and now it's been a case of being choosy and determining which reality feels the most true to me. I just need a bit more before I determine if I'm flipping my vote or staying on here. Would you be willing to trust my judgment (despite being wrong on Gamma) if that were the case?

are you talking here about partners, like who's next if we flip scum today?

also, sorry if you said this already, but do you think 2nd / elements is a likely team or just they're individual scumreads

[unwnd]

I don't think I'm willing to commit 'this is the scumteam right now' but if they both ended up being scum I could take half-credit

[northsidegal]

meh

i'd think lunar elements before 2nd elements personally

you can have full credit if you're right though

[2ndchosen1]

Don't Use These Weird Programmer Ways of Saying Stuff Just Say +Day -Night Or Something Like That

anyways the answer to your question is no, as far as i can tell. assuming our vig has an ounce of sense they will holster tonight unless we hit scum today, in which case it is always the right choice to shoot. if we hit today, not shooting leads us to 5 alive 1 scum from which we have two town-directed elimination shots before it's game over for sure. even if the vig lives to 3 person lylo, they can't shoot scum after lynching incorrectly because the town wincon stipulates that at least one townie must still be alive. so to reiterate the "holster after scum lynch today" line gets us two town directed eliminations. contrast shooting, which gets us one with the vig shot, one lynch when we're at 4 people alive 1 scum, and then another potential vig shot (assuming the vig lives). assuming the vig dies tonight we only get two town-directed eliminations, but it's possible we would get three, so it's optimal to shoot.

I win! NSG knows I've a computer science degree!
will make time to be on around 7-8pm EST

[Elements]

then i re-metad elements

Including my scum games?

Read this however you want but it's just us 3 talking this game becomes way less scary to me lmao

Even as an outsider to the conversation I agree.

I don't think my reads have ever changed so drastically over the course of one day phase before. Your three person conversation has been incredibly helpful. It reads incredibly genuine and solvey and tonally town to the point I'm throwing you both in the town pile.

{Dann}
{NSG, unwnd}
{2nd, LM}
{kazyan}

nsg

I started townleaning nsg after her case on kazyan started, and it's just grown from there. Unvoting me was incredibly towny. I don't think scum unvotes me there. Add onto that Dann's meta read and the conversation I've previously mentioned and => town.

unwnd

I would first like to apologise for death tunneling your slot from day 1. I have seen the towniness everyone else has now. The way I handled it reminds me very strongly of how I handled A50 in Open 792 (with a bit less flip flopping) which was tvt and entirely caused by playstyle difference, got a bit toxic with Agar, and caused me to stop playing for a few months. Anyway, the point is that the scumread originated from the clashing playstyles of me/npom and I didn't rlly look into much of what unwnd was brining to the table as I already had my mind made up but the conversation now has me thinking it was 792 all over again and I should not be looking at npom when reading the slot.

Kazyan

It was the vote on me that did it. I think kazyan's thought process was something along the lines of:
Elements is an easy mislim that can probably happen any day or will be shot by the vig. If I'm the only one towning them that could give me some town cred upon their flip. Lots of people have stated they're not a fan of nsg, I might be able to push a mislim there today. Everyone loves an infographic. Shit shit shit, nsg is on to me. Abort abort. Vote Elements quick and end the day before it all goes horribly wrong.
This is of course hyperbole but I think it flows with the chain of events.

VOTE: kazyan

just a reminder, my pronouns are they/them thanks

[Kazyan]

VOTE: kazyan

I like the cool-story-bro about what I was thinking, but this is another case of brains working differently. Given a situation where I have to defend a point textually, I tend to concede in a very non-internet-argument way, which was what happened there. (I had to reconsider my reads a lot over these past few pages, though, obviously.)

Lunar is the only other person that is still parked on an Elements vote, so, uh. Are we switching wagons to me?

No offense to nsg, but this game is beyond the range of any scum game I've ever read from nsg, and I've read a few.

Town!NSG pretty much reduces the possibilities of the third Mafia member to Lunar and unwnd, and those two don't have a serious case on them either, unless I'm nowhere near paranoid enough about 2ndchosen1 and he's playing us like a fiddle. Elements is still scum according to my most recent waffling, though; posts 1289 and 1290

really

look like overacting to me, unless that's just another way Elements's brain works differently.

[Elements]

I like the cool-story-bro about what I was thinking, but this is another case of brains working differently. Given a situation where I have to defend a point textually, I tend to concede in a very non-internet-argument way, which was what happened there. (I had to reconsider my reads a lot over these past few pages, though, obviously.

Even when it's your scumread you're arguing with?

[Kazyan]

lmao yeah