TM 2021 - Black Flag Nightless

[Menalque]

The other unique way for me to win as scum here is if it's exactly Chennis + Me + one of Mena / AL.

Right, which is a little paranoia inducing to me but much less so if you’re willing to let yourself be a lamb before lylo

[Menalque]

Although if Johnny!scum then that may well be unnecessary

[Shirou]

If me/Chennis are partners but I'm not partners with any of Mena/AL

We still lose this by eliminating one of Chennis/Me in the final day.

We're essentially now in a state that based on the assumptions we take, we can lock the game.

[MathBlade]

The unique way I win as scum here being left out of the block is if I'm planning to flip the table against the third player in the block in the last day.

Honestly, although it's a bit novel, I wouldn't place it outside of the realm of possibility for scum!me, but that would mean I'm planning to flip the tables on Chennis, which would mean we're not partnered.

The other unique way for me to win as scum here is if it's exactly Chennis + Me + one of Mena / AL.

Therefore this is either an town auto-win or auto-loss based on whether you think the team is exactly that / Lilith + Joqi is town / Mena/AL aren't partners.

I'm not gonna try to hide any of this stuff from you, there it is in the sun on all it's glory and I think it's the plan I want to put forward.

I don’t get this but I hope I get it when I get caught up overnight. It just looks like “assume I am right” then if I am right we win or lose? That’s called every possibility?

[Menalque]

Wow, mathblade hates the idea of a townbloc without him in it despite strongly advocating for townblocs earlier

Who’da thunk it?

[Shirou]

I do think also that my interactions with Mena / AL are decently anti-partners until now unless you think I did mastermind this whole plan from the start. Which I guess I don't have anything to say, I just didn't.

[JohnnyFarrar]

Oh I think mathblade should be in your town block

[Menalque]

If you have a problem with it math, you need to attack the assumptions as incorrect

If the assumptions are correct, the conclusion follows

You’re just going “well why should we assume the assumptions are correct” when they look p good to me (I know there can’t be more than 1 scum in me/AL, and I strongly TR joqiza and lili, therefore if one more town can complete the bloc, the game is auto)

[Shirou]

In fact, final checkmate:

1) If I'm not partner with one of AL / Mena

2) If Lilith/Joqi/Third are all town

We effectively win this game, don't even need to consider Chennis/Me because Chennis/Me still can't win in final day if I'm not partners with one of AL / Mena.

[MathBlade]

Wow, mathblade hates the idea of a townbloc without him in it despite strongly advocating for townblocs earlier

Who’da thunk it?

Uhm no, that’s not what I am saying at all.

I am saying Shirou is making a circular argument

It’s a circular argument.

If I assume my phone is turned on therefore I have access to the internet, then say because I am posting on access to mafia scum therefore I have access to my phone. I have gone in a circle

Shirou has said if I assume that my townreads are right then we win, you’ve assumed what you’re trying to prove.

[Menalque]

I do think also that my interactions with Mena / AL are decently anti-partners until now unless you think I did mastermind this whole plan from the start. Which I guess I don't have anything to say, I just didn't.

It would be technically impossible for you to have masterminded it because the interactions that made it possible as a plan took place before you arrived in the game. So it would have to be something that one of me/fire/infinity came up with way earlier but then wasn’t used for ?? reasons and was only revived when you repped in

Which is just insanely unlikely

[Shirou]

If Chennis/Me are partners, but I'm not partners with one of AL / Mena, we still lose because we would need to do a 1v1 in the final day, and we would already have limmed one of our partners before.

Chennis/Me can't win in that situation at all unless we turn against Lilith/Joqi.

[Autumn Leaves]

To be completely honest, I'm sus of the plan because it comes from shirou, but the logic looks solid.

[MathBlade]

To be completely honest, I'm sus of the plan because it comes from shirou, but the logic looks solid.

Explain it like I am 5.

From what I see Shirou has deemed A,B,C,D,E town

If we elim outside of that group we hit scum

Uhm of course that’s true by your assumptions?

[Shirou]

Shirou has said if I assume that my townreads are right then we win, you’ve assumed what you’re trying to prove.

In that case you need to talk about:

Why Lilith / Joqi aren't town.

Why AL / Mena are partners

If you do think they are town at the moment but may change your mind later, it's still to our benefit to follow this plan.

Therefore, give us reasoning why you don't believe in Lilith / Joqi town, or why you think AL / Mena are scum together when all their interactions in the game in my opinion point otherwise.

[Shirou]

Explain it like I am 5.

I already explained as if someone is 5.

Read my posts.

[Shirou]

If Johnny is scum, the unique part of the plan that changes is that we need even fewer requirements for it to be a auto-win so *shrug*.

[Menalque]

or why you think AL / Mena are scum together when all their interactions in the game in my opinion point otherwise.

But that would require mathblade reading the game, shirou

[MathBlade]

Shirou has said if I assume that my townreads are right then we win, you’ve assumed what you’re trying to prove.

In that case you need to talk about:

Why Lilith / Joqi aren't town.

Why AL / Mena are partners

If you do think they are town at the moment but may change your mind later, it's still to our benefit to follow this plan.

Therefore, give us reasoning why you don't believe in Lilith / Joqi town, or why you think AL / Mena are scum together when all their interactions in the game in my opinion point otherwise.

I don’t think you’re seeing my point either. You could randomize those names to be ANY player pairing and I would have an issue because you’re assuming a ton of reads to get there.

As for the specific cases I would prefer to see which would be wrong if any after I caught up. If I have to pick a case wrong off the top of my head it would be AL + Mena partners because of AL never being miselimmed.

[Shirou]

Math, the fact you're instantly trying to go for "AL + Mena" are partners yeah don't make your slot look good at all.

I need to check your ISO later but I doubt you had anything close to that opinion before, and I don't think you had doubt about Joqi/Lilith either likely. Even if you did, I still don't like you trying to shut down the plan by saying "but you can be wrong!!!" instead of firstly properly understanding the plan, seeing if it lines up with your reads, and if yes/not proceed to give your feedback.

You've instantly gone to the route of "shutdown the plan".

[Shirou]

It doesn't even matter if you read the guys above that way or not, this logic is still solid and at minimum I can see you suggesting different pairings.

In this game, you need to assume some people are town or at least not likely scum either way, I'm only suggesting a more efficient/clear way of doing it, but you don't want to understand any of it, you just want to shutdown the whole thing.

[Shirou]

If you think the plan isn't solid because the reads are wrong, the optimal route would still be to put your own reads on the safe mechanisms and suggest it.

There's nothing to lose by at least entertaining it.

[MathBlade]

Math, the fact you're instantly trying to go for "AL + Mena" are partners yeah don't make your slot look good at all.

I need to check your ISO later but I doubt you had anything close to that opinion before, and I don't think you had doubt about Joqi/Lilith either likely. Even if you did, I still don't like you trying to shut down the plan by saying "but you can be wrong!!!" instead of firstly properly understanding the plan, seeing if it lines up with your reads, and if yes/not proceed to give your feedback.

You've instantly gone to the route of "shutdown the plan".

I asked to be explained the plan. You said you did.

I found an issue with the plan that I had trouble understanding.

I could literally swap this with anyone. I am not trying to shut down you’re plan I am asking you to either explain how that list is different from just randomly picking names and explain how you got there.

Right now my reads are to be bluntly honest in a state of flux right now, none of the discord agrees on anything so that’s patently useless and so I am more just reacting to what’s here and this is the kind of shit deep wolves pull.

[MathBlade]

Your plan*

[Autumn Leaves]

It's different from randomly picking names because they're good reads. I'm town, I strongly TR joqi and lilith so the plan looks like it wins to me.