Open 804: Popcorn Mafia Redux [Game Over!]

[WhemeStar]

I vote cakez

[WhemeStar]

My 3 options are all great shots imo

[Tammy]

Zukokai - I get you want to do your sitback thing and play your games, but you should jump into the fray at some point.

[Imperium]

Zukokai - I get you want to do your sitback thing and play your games, but you should jump into the fray at some point.

Sorry!

[WhemeStar]

Mod kill the Hydra slip !!!

[ScrewTheTells]

This post is gonna be about MUSHSHAGANA. Other topics incoming with future posts.

Summary: They're still as scummy as I thought previously, but that is not much in absolute terms. My main 2 hunches on her contradict each other. Her wall making is town-like. Her arguments are scum-like. PREVIEW EDIT: well actually maybe more scum now.

So I think MUSH's scum meta would be highly valuable information in this situation. Like I said before, I place a lot of weight on scumhunting effort, and MUSH's consistent writing of walls is making me feel that she's town. But I can't actually find myself agreeing with the substance of most of those walls, and that's why I also had a contrasting feeling that she's scum. E.g. the psychoanalysis of Cakez. I think MUSH is reasoning is overly specific, and relies way too heavily on arbitrary extrapolations, which seems like scum coming up with ad-hoc rationalizations, and wrapping them up in many words to fit MUSH's wall-posting meta. I just can't see how you can actually scum hunt by over-analyzing extrapolated scenarios that are mostly just biased opinions dressed up and presented as ironclad logic. I think unwnd and Cakez also pointed out this as basically "over-thinking". MUSH's defense is that she always overthinks, which is fine for a personal playstyle, and no I'm not expecting this to change, that's not the point. The point is that this doesn't convince me that she's not scum. Because scum would do the same thing and take advantage of this meta to push however they want. When someone points out that they're just over-rationalizing a dubious point, they'd just say "but it's totally in line with my meta!"

I might be paranoid but when MUSH's first post in the game is a pre-emptive "my playstyle might be off because of my special IRL circumstances", that rings alarms in my head. I'm not trying to make light of your IRL stuff, I'm not here to talk about that. I just think if you were scum, your brain would be more likely to recognize excuses you can use to defend any inconsistencies from meta. Sure, town-MUSH might well also say this, but I think there's a relatively larger chance that town-MUSH wouldn't think that the IRL circumstances would impact her wall-making enough, to the point where it has to be pre-emptively mentioned. Like, scum-MUSH would almost certainly see that this is a thing they should say because they know faking zealous walls as scum is hard. Scum-MUSH probably want to cover any inconsistencies because any deviations from her meta would be noticeable. Whereas town-MUSH might say it, or they might miss that train of thought and not say it. Therefore it is bayesian evidence to me, basically, slightly shifting MUSH towards scum in probability. And then all the bad arguments in the walls just made this more likely.

I was hoping that I'd be able to see at least one MUSH game where she's scum. If MUSH still writes walls as scum, I'd be pretty confident in my scum read, since that would prove that the playstyle was a totally null indicator.

If there were a MUSH scum game where this wall meta was broken, then I'd heavily update that MUSH is town.

I checked the games, and it turns out we have the worst case of not having this evidence one way or another. MUSH doesn't have scum games here yet.

So the only thing that updates my read on MUSH is the continued demonstration of wall-writing ability. It's pretty consistent. Without any actual evidence, my expectation is that it shouldn't be that easy for scum-MUSH to fake. Hypothetically, if I start to find MUSH actually making arguments I agree with, I think that would be an indicator that MUSH is actually town.

So after considering that, I think it makes MUSH scummy but not enough to be the best shot for today. I think MUSH will only be easier to read as the game goes on so there's no need to rush this one while there's still a lot of uncertainty.

---- I just saw MUSH's latest post in the preview. The above was written before that. ---

Well so much for that. MUSH is just reads like OMGUSing now. I'm not leaving any escape hatches. Why would I need escape hatches? What I am doing is not being tunnel-visioned. I'm just stating how I'm seeing the evidence for and against you, so everyone is on the same page as me, and now you're OMGUSing me for not giving you a town pass like other people and making up more psycho-analysis bullshit to rationalize it as usual.

MUSH is likely scum.

[RLotus]

Oh boy this is going to be a lengthy argument.

[ScrewTheTells]

Regarding Imperium:

Your previous reasons were based on misinterpreting my posts.

I've been reading you and I understand your explanations.

It's just that I don't place much weight on people's own explanation of what they meant. Scum will always be able to find a way to rationalize a certain take. It's meaningless noise to me. I mostly look at what actions they make, see who it benefits, and get a feel of what is more likely to make someone say that, regardless of what they claim their reasoning was. Some people summarize this as "gut", but it's more quantifiable to me than just that.

In other words, I agree 100% wholeheartedly with Cakez's reasoning

I feel you are not getting what I'm saying.
In the content of the initial wall about Norfolk itself, the reasons you use to claim the scumreads are undeserved are fine (although obviously I disagree). I can see the logic and arguments.
My dislike of the wall doesn't come from the reasoning used, but the fence-sitty aspects of it. It doesn't make sense to me to go to the lengths you did in that wall just to declare them as a nullread anyways (as I've said many many times). More than once in the wall you basically go "well that could be town or it could be scum"

Now it's looking like a non-zero chance Norfolk is getting shot here. If he flips red then you can say you were never actually defending him. If he flips town then you can say you were correct with your defense and go after the people you were shading in the wall. Regardless of outcome, it sets you up for the future. And it doesn't feel like a genuine opinion, but an out.

Now lets leave it at that. I don't need to convince yourself that you're scummy. That won't work no matter which alignment you are. This is basically for the benefit of other players to think about. Let's not take it too personally, I'm not trying to continue this argument.

[MUSHSHAGANA]

Well, we can make this very easy, STT. A one-for-one trade. You take the bullet this go around, then you get to shoot me.

I was originally going to say "or vice versa", because I wasn't caring about the order -- but it occurred to me that if you're the godfather, you got rid of two strong townies in a single go by doing that. So no, you go first, and I will absolutely accept me going down next if you aren't red. I'll even let someone else take charge of my shot after that, because clearly at that point my scumreads aren't worth a damn anyway. Besides, if you're a goon, it's still one for one -- your team can vengekill me, and then we're all good.

I suppose it might not be an even trade for you to go first if you're the godfather. In which case the scum team has no way to get me out of the game this go around -- gee, that sucks for them. I hope they make the dumb mistake of giving me the gun to get as close as they can to a kill in that case.

[Dunnstral]

I think we've entered the part of the game where people are arguing in circles about the same things

That’s why I said we need someone to get shot

Yes I agree

Would like Netflix and Chill to share their reads before shooting, even if it's right before they shoot

[Netflix and Chill]

I’m not shooting STT lol

[MUSHSHAGANA]

That's a shame. I think you 100% hit red every time if you do.

Granted, godfather in play, and STT /is/ openwolfing, so eh. Fair, I guess.

[Imperium]

I had a response to STT but I deleted it it's whatever. I'm just going to be content to be completely misunderstood and or misrepped this game. Whatever. Either town is just missing every fucking point I make or scum is just trying to irritate the fuck out of me to tilt me, and you know what HAVE FUN.

STT - Think your paranoia on the meta thing is probably misplaced. I understand that I really do; that kinda thing always makes me think scum in the back of my mind, but after seeing someone be town almost every time that statement is made, I don't think it's really alignment indicative anymore.

[unwnd]

I don't want you to be tilted because I think you're a boon to town

What exactly has you frustrated (if you had to generalize) and do you believe they are intentional from some people? I know you sorta lean on Cakez being someone who might be intentionally tilting you but not sure about the rest

[Netflix and Chill]

Hold on I’m looking at your iso rn Tammy

[WhemeStar]

That's a shame. I think you 100% hit red every time if you do.

Granted, godfather in play, and STT /is/ openwolfing, so eh. Fair, I guess.

I don’t think scum says this unless they are bussing

[Netflix and Chill]

I don’t think I want to shoot Musha either.

Brian and I did discuss shooting Tammycho because it either flips them or gives the gun to two of the players I’d most want to have it

I’m currently wrestling with my stack rank not accounting for me getting the gun and that concerns me a ton.

[WhemeStar]

What do you think about shooting cakez

[Dunnstral]

I’m currently wrestling with my stack rank not accounting for me getting the gun and that concerns me a ton.

What does this mean?

[Netflix and Chill]

That means I don’t have any of the people I could see picking me low enough on it.

Tammy are you still around? Do you think this is a dumb rabbit hole to dig into?

[unwnd]

I think Tammycho is a bad shot and I'd be willing to explain it if you want me to

[Imperium]

I don’t think I want to shoot Musha either.

Brian and I did discuss shooting Tammycho because it either flips them or gives the gun to two of the players I’d most want to have it

I’m currently wrestling with my stack rank not accounting for me getting the gun and that concerns me a ton.

Do you scum read me? I don't think I'm having a totally off game, but if you're thinking that perhaps I am.

[Netflix and Chill]

Not really anymore

I definitely started you guys at the bottom of my list when I saw we got the gun

Who else would give us the gun? Do you think scum would rng it?

[MUSHSHAGANA]

I wouldn't mind Imperium having the gun, yeah. The concern with my other nulltowns is that I think they'd be some degree of hot garbage with the gun, but Imperium I feel would be pretty excellent with it. Probably the three players I trust to do /literally anything/ useful with the gun as of right now are Imperium, unwnd and Duchess, so if that's a strong part of your consideration, that's where I'd place bullets. I strongly think unwnd is town though, so maybe not there so much.

[Netflix and Chill]

I’m not giving imperium the gun I said we discussed it early in the day