TM 2021 - Black Flag Nightless

[Shirou]

You guys are too complicated to me.

Screw hedging on things going wrong, if they do I guess I suck but I'm not up to keep trying to convince Math / Mena / etc to converge on something. I would understand their position in any setup that isn't Black Flag.

I'm fine with a BoP on me, with the following caveat:

The chain is:

Auro > Shirou > Flopz


I'm not giving a Auro/Flopz scumteam 2 days to convince you guys to do something else when AL/Math seems so miseliminable if they're town. It was in fact my worry about doing this.

If Auro flips town today, I'm self-voting tomorrow AS LONG AS YOU VOTE AURO RIGHT NOW.

If you delay Auro wagon I'm not gonna hold this promise. You've been warned. I want instant-death or nothing. It's my birthday and I want to wrap up this game as soon as possible.

[Shirou]

Fair enough. Just seemed like a weird reaction test or something. It didn’t jive with what I had.

Why do you think people are so willing to sheep you?

Whatever Math.

Discussion time is over, now it's Mafia Texas time where I bet all my chips on my reads.

I would rather lose this game because scum pulled off something unexpected than to keep like this.

My entire chain for anyone with an interest is:

Auro > Shirou > Flopz > MathBlade

Mena/AL/Chennis probably still have at maximum one scum so I suggest Math if things come to the worst. I don't think they will though.

[Shirou]

I was planning to do something much more elaborated if Math had agreed to write me off in the next 2 days, which would force an interesting dynamic in the game, but I'm not going to sit here and keep making redundant arguments.

If scum isn't in Auro/Flopz/Math I'm giving them what they want but I do believe that the probability of that is very low.

[MathBlade]

Then don’t hold on it?

I don’t vote someone based on pages I haven’t read and I am voting in your PoE.

I said I wouldn’t consider voting you that doesn’t mean I sheep you. I have no bloody clue who you think you are to throw this weight around like “I am soooo important sheep me or I have people vote you” especially when they are doing it anyway.

It reads like an empty threat versus actually believing Auro is scum and that you can make a case for it and then when Auro flips town you hope people forget that grandstand as people are loathe to do.

So I am going to work. Your “threat” feels like it’s a snowball in hell.

[MathBlade]

I was planning to do something much more elaborated if Math had agreed to write me off in the next 2 days, which would force an interesting dynamic in the game, but I'm not going to sit here and keep making redundant arguments.

If scum isn't in Auro/Flopz/Math I'm giving them what they want but I do believe that the probability of that is very low.

Oh no. If I had agreed I woulda been scum.

What scum wouldn’t have wanted a loud town not voting them for two days?

[Shirou]

I'm not accepting a BoP of Shirou > Auro > Flopz

I'm not giving a hypothetical Auro/Flopz scumteam 2 entire days to change such an indecisive/divided playerlist mind.

It's

Auro > Shirou > Flopz

or nothing. Also it needs to be fast, if I need to wait days or until deadline there's no point to doing this.

[chennisden]

Yup Auro's insistence that there's no plan after Auro Flopz just makes me think he's scum

[Shirou]

I was planning to do something much more elaborated if Math had agreed to write me off in the next 2 days, which would force an interesting dynamic in the game, but I'm not going to sit here and keep making redundant arguments.

If scum isn't in Auro/Flopz/Math I'm giving them what they want but I do believe that the probability of that is very low.

Oh no. If I had agreed I woulda been scum.

What scum wouldn’t have wanted a loud town not voting them for two days?

I already have given up on you Math if you're town. You're too stubborn.

I'm mostly looking to convince Mena/AL here now.

AL suspects me so I do think that AL should like this proposition.

[chennisden]

I also also dislike Chenn’s attempts to take more cred than I think he deserves for johnny!wagon

can you elaborate on why you think i've taken more credit than i deserved?

[chennisden]

Oh, I also think scum probably bussed which makes me more suspicious of (shirou/chenn/AL)

yes, i decided to start bussing on page 30, of the BLACK FLAG game, instead of idk pushing onto the super menalque conflict

im just so good at scum that my master plan is to kill my own partner and then my very good scumbuddy shirou, who i didnt even know would be shirou until way later, can coast to endgame with me when the probability of people going "OMG BUS!!!" in this pl is over 9000

[Shirou]

Yup Auro's insistence that there's no plan after Auro Flopz just makes me think he's scum

Auro:

1) Didn't consider that the most flawed part of the plan isn't the fact AL may not be scum from his pov, but that Lilith is scum therefore the plan is flawed at its base

2) Auro was suspecting Flopz and did a 180 coming to today

3) Auro thinks both me/Lilith are suspects, but never mentioned how obvious it should be from town!Auro PoV that I'm trying to insert Lilith into the townblock to endgame with my plan

Auro progression here makes 0 sense from a town pov so far in my view.

[chennisden]

i have no interest in killing you shirou

you read the game, for crying out loud, and you KNOW that these kind of propositions aren't going to be effective

[Shirou]

Menalque I don't think I've ever come forward first as scum proposing a BoP, at most in Baton Pass I said "yeah lim me if this flips town as well" after a town player did hard lock me into their own BP of "If Shiro flips town I'm self-voting tomorrow".

Even in the above case, I tried to deflect until said player said "look, Shirou is getting afraid" and I was forced to say something in response. I intentionally proceeded to sound emotionally chaotic so that people would see the argument as stupid in that game and write it off as TvT most likely.

I'm serious here but I cannot allow myself to self-vote today when half or more than half of the playerlist seems wo wishy-washy towards Auro/Flopz.

It needs to be Auro > Shirou > Flopz.

[chennisden]

shirou i think the chances of you being scum are extraordinarily low and i also think the chances of auro scum are high, but i also think these kinds of propositions are a) anti-town and b) only going to discourage people from voting the wagon

[Shirou]

i have no interest in killing you shirou

you read the game, for crying out loud, and you KNOW that these kind of propositions aren't going to be effective

Shirou > Auro > Flopz isn't effective. People may simply get misguided by Auro.


Auro > Shirou > Flopz most of the time simply wins the game before we even get there. If we do, I plan to follow my promise either way to give more weight later in the day for you to push Flopz, and Joqi/Math already suspects Flopz, that's 3.

Mena does seem to me like the kind of person to hold in his promise, 4 votes on Flopz if Auro flips town.

This kind of thing doesn't work in most games, but it doesn't mean it won't work here in this case.

All I want, and need, is Auro wagon today, and fast because if it's scum!Auro like I think it is, I hate the thought of wasting my time like I'm doing here at the moment.

[chennisden]

because I still think the two most obviously correct elims today are (AL, math) and your positioning today is strongly avoiding that

which is not to say this can't be town!you reaching a divergent conclusion. but it's not helping me feel good about you, especially given your reversal on math!slot and that you don't seem as eager to lay down your life for you mech!win plan as you claimed to be yesterday

ding dong i think ur wrong

[chennisden]

im back to thinking al was just lhf

[Shirou]

shirou i think the chances of you being scum are extraordinarily low and i also think the chances of auro scum are high, but i also think these kinds of propositions are a) anti-town and b) only going to discourage people from voting the wagon

I agree with a)

Disagree with b)

You + ME + Lilith are already 3

Mena liked the BoP thingy.

If Mena joins it's 4.

We need five.

One more and it's elimination.

This entire proposition is a bargain for no one other than Menalque in particular, which forces the tier break of four votes, making the fifth one much easier.

[Autumn Leaves]

I would like to hear more specifically Math/AL opinions on me, since I'm trying to hardblock your relatively very easy miseliminations if you're town.

I don't think this is clearing for you at all, in fact I think you're just saving our elims for later. Instead of re-evaluating the bloc, people like joqi will want to elim me/math already.

I was very sure the team was mena/shirou and I was writing up a case, this day phase has made that less likely though, so I'll have to think about things.

[Shirou]

There's no difference between saying that above proposition to the entire game, and saying that proposition to Menalque / Autumn, because those are the people I want to convince to join Auro, and they both seem to suspect me.

The unique way we lose with Auro > Shirou > Flopz > Math is if Mena / AL are scum together, or Chennis / AL, or Lilith/Joqi scum, which just seems unlikely to me.

I'm not a very patient person once I've made up my mind. I'm extremely indecisive until I've made up my mind, when I've made up my mind I don't care about anything else anymore.

[Shirou]

I would like to hear more specifically Math/AL opinions on me, since I'm trying to hardblock your relatively very easy miseliminations if you're town.

I don't think this is clearing for you at all, in fact I think you're just saving our elims for later. Instead of re-evaluating the bloc, people like joqi will want to elim me/math already.

I was very sure the team was mena/shirou and I was writing up a case, this day phase has made that less likely though, so I'll have to think about things.

See @Chennis?

Auro wagon probably doesn't happen today unless I make the BoP of "I self-vote tomorrow if Auro flips town, and if I break this promise treat me as confirmed scum".

However

I need this to be

fast

. I want to wrap up this game in my birthday. If you guys wait too long and I just lose interest in this game, I'll retract the proposition and it's your loss.

[Shirou]

Autumn look, I'm scum like you think.

Now I've just made the sweet promise of self-voting tomorrow if Auro flips town today as long as you vote him right now.

If I break this promise while the offer is up (it needs to be fast), treat me as confirmed scum.

If I'm scum this virtually loses me the game.

Can you just vote Auro?

[Shirou]

I'm scum Autumn.

Scum.

Now vote Auro already, and hard catch me tomorrow, and you win the game.

Very simple plan right?

I don't think I'm getting limmed today without a self-vote, although who knows by this point.

[Auro]

2) Auro was suspecting Flopz and did a 180 coming to today

3) Auro thinks both me/Lilith are suspects, but never mentioned how obvious it should be from town!Auro PoV that I'm trying to insert Lilith into the townblock to endgame with my plan

2) Oh yes re-evaluation is scummy

3) is just daft

I'm OK with Auro->Shirou->Lilith

[Shirou]

Look, Autumn/Mena/Joqi seems to have boners for each other, and Math is stubborn in every game.

None of them are particularly looking at Auro right now, and although Joqi/Math are considering Flopz, I think there's more chance of town!Flopz than town!Auro, and it just gives ammunition for scum!Auro to deflect if by any chance we miselim Flopz.

I may be wrong and the team is elsewhere, but from my point of view, most town players are making the move to open a possibly scum victory when this game should be simpler to win if our premises on late D1 are right, and everyone seemed to agree on those back then.