TM 2021 - Black Flag Nightless

[Autumn Leaves]

I'm playing magic the gathering because s new set came out, I don't really feel like writing a case right now. The shirou vote is to see if mena will go there.

[lilith2013]

SS said that 4443 is exactly how he would expect scum to react

didn’t mena already vote shirou?

[Autumn Leaves]

Mena's vote is on me at the moment.

[Shirou]

would eliminate today: infinity, auro, math
would not eliminate today: shirou, mena, joqiza, flopz, chennis

want to do infinity in that case?

I guess it's kinda "suboptimal" but I would be ok with moving the pairing to "Math / Mena" aren't scum together considering Mena opened going for Math here + was going for Math close to Johnny flip.

For what it's worth, I don't believe infinity has high odds of being scum, I think they exist, but dunno, Auro to me still likely wins the game.

However, a town!Autumn flip should make Joqi reconsider at least.

If Joqi can come with us tomorrow on Auro up to E-1 (If Chennis doesn't mess this up again by the way), I think it's easier to force someone else to go along with us, like for example math offering the hammer early.

I guess we can wait Joqi to see if comes to Auro today, but my hopes at the moment are already low.

[Menalque]

Excellent question Lili!

Also, shirou, sorry, I’m really tired rn so I’m gonna eat and go to sleep, I don’t think this is just paranoia I think there’s some really concerning stuff about how you’ve played that we can get into tomorrow. I’ll also have another think about your posts just above once I’ve slept

Happy birthday though!

[Shirou]

There's two views in the game in my opinion:

Me/Chennis on Auro/Flopz, Joqi/Mena on Infinity.

I'm ok with going along with the other option for today considering we've 4 eliminations.

I didn't want to explain I would concede to the other options if time ran out/people unvoted, but I can't afford to dedicate time / camp this thread anymore. I had up to my birthday free and that was it.

I thought I would play slow from D2 forward, but I saw the opportunity to speedrun this, I tried to take it, but this is the result, and honestly, I think it falled off with Chennis unvote, but I don't hold it against him or anything. It was a fair take.

[Menalque]

idk what that is but congrats

Chess played on a 5 minute timer, and thanks! (Only with irl friends tho, it wasn’t like a super strong group or ransoms etc)

[lilith2013]

mena are you still scumreading math?

[Menalque]

Idk, sort of?

This is the opposite sort of problem of some games where I can’t find enough scum, in this one I have too many

[Autumn Leaves]

Take a look at mena's read progressions today while I write my case.

[Menalque]

Like I think math is a bad slot here but shirou’s play seems more scummy and it makes a lot more sense to me in terms of a “trying to win the game” agenda

Esp with infinity or chenn

And infinity still has associatives with johnny, still has the original reasons i was scumreading him, and most recently has this very lol progression on my slot which I think can be explained very easily by him having a scum wincon and feeling a need to

That *probably* means that there is scum in (shirou, auro, flopz) but it seems smarter and safer to just elim infinity today

[Shirou]

Look here:

VOTE: Autumn

You've 2 options Mena according to your PoV:

- Vote Autumn here together with me

- Reverse UNO card and vote me with Autumn

This should already tell you that 1/2 or 1/3 of your solve is wrong, and I'm gonna proceed to tell you that if you think I bussed Math in EoD D1 when my other partner just flipped, you're wrong again and I can prove going for Math as well today.

My partner, if I'm ever scum, is Chennis and only Chennis. Anyone, get this through your head: My partner if I'm scum is Chennis, and if you could just take my word for the TR on Chennis if I flip town, I would appreciate it, because people were also SRing Chennis for some reason while I had him as strong TR.

Therefore, the unique thing I ask of you if you do me today, or if you do infinity, or if you do math, is to go into Auro tomorrow. That's all. I'm gonna leave Flopz alone for now, you guys can solve it out if I'm wrong on Auro.

Just Auro, let's flip whoever majority wants today, including me, but let's do Auro tomorrow.

A trade of one per one, fair and balanced as all things should be.

[Shirou]

I'll retract my vote on Autumn if you don't agree with me on doing Auro tomorrow, no caps.

Sadly I don't even know who to work with in that case, because Joqi isn't someone up to trades, he just follows his intuition and that's fair, I was just trying to forcibly drag him along on my votes but he can't be swayed because he doesn't see the benefit in exchanging vote currency, which in my opinion is valuable in a social game but to each their own.

[Menalque]

Take a look at mena's read progressions today while I write my case.

This might be a persuasive argument but for one particular thing

That being; the reason you gave for reversing on me yesterday was the only reason that made sense for town!you to reverse on me imo— that you’d had a realisation about how who I am as a person meant I wouldn’t play that way, and that’s the reason you gave for reversing your read

If you’d gone “oh actually Mena is now playing v protown, I think I made a mistake” it would have seemed less persuasive I think, but it also wouldn’t have dug you into the hole you’re now in

The hole you’re now in being that, unless you think who I am as a person/your entire mental model of me as a player and what I would/wouldn’t do as either alignment has changed over night (and there’s nothing that’s happened that could plausibly have prompted that) it doesn’t make sense for you to go “oh, weird progressions, mena!scum!” here

Because my progressions or not or whatever had nothing to do with the APPARENTLY SUPER STRONG GIVEN THAT YOU SHIFTED FROM HARD SCUMREADING TO HARD TOWNREADING ME reasons that you gave yesterday

So your reversal here makes no sense unless you were lying about why you flipped your read on me in the first place

[Shirou]

This is the unique thing I ask of you if I flip town:

- Go for Auro in the next day

- Consider Chennis town until last day

This is all, if we agree to this I'm fine with my elimination even today although I'll not self-vote without Auro going first.

It's 8:15 PM here in my clock, there's 4 remaining hours for the deal on Auro, and I can, maybe, extend it up to hear what Joqi has to say here, but if I don't have faith he's seeing scum!Auro I'm calling the deal off.

[Menalque]

Just Auro, let's flip whoever majority wants today, including me, but let's do Auro tomorrow

I’ll think about this while I sleep

In principle it’s a yes, but I want to add the condition that if auro is town then you’re the D4 elim but you get to choose the D5 elim — however, I kind of think you’re not gonna agree to that which means we’re gonna need to talk tomorrow (rl) but I think we need to do that anyway

[Autumn Leaves]

@Mena The reason I started scumreading you again isn't read progressions, I think it actually made a lot of sense to play the way you did as scum, I'll explain it in the case.

[Menalque]

The way you’re trying to force this to obey a really pressured time schedule is reminiscent of every slimy second hand car salesman ever and is really fucking scummy

[Menalque]

@Mena The reason I started scumreading you again isn't read progressions, I think it actually made a lot of sense to play the way you did as scum, I'll explain it in the case.

Okily dokily buddy!

[Menalque]

Again, unless your fundamental view of me as a person has shifted overnight then you were either lying yesterday about your reasons for townreading me yesterday, or you’re making the claim that you have, in fact, shifted the fundamental way you view me as a person (this is basically your only option to argue btw!) but there’s nothing that’s really happened to support you claiming that such a shift has occurred sooooo

Good luck with that I guess?

[Shirou]

but I want to add the condition that if auro is town then you’re the D4 elim but you get to choose the D5 elim

I need to think about it but my problem with this is that unless AL is specifically scum, I get no chance to prove or not my theory of one scum in [Auro/Flopz], which means any scum in our "townblock" gets to endgame. Which is why I proposed the PoE that I did.

I don't think we can discuss this tomorrow probably because...if I'm ever too active here tomorrow it means I'm slacking off on what I should do to be here, because I shouldn't be here too much tomorrow, but either way...

[Menalque]

Also this is like, every scum ever lmao “I’ll case it later”

[Menalque]

Town generally have no problems summarising in like 4-5 sentences what it is that the other person has done that’s scummy

[Menalque]

But okay, I’ve finished my pasta, I’m going to bed now

Will be around tomorrow

Night all

[Flopz]

Couple of things to say before I go into the Shirou proposition

First, Auro scumread me for not being part of the Johnny wagon and joing a vanity wagon instead while then having his own vanity wagon by voting for me. He also has 180'd his read and is back to TR me and idk what he even believes at this point. Auro is plenty scummy from my pov.

I also do not like Chenn+Shirou and think there's a good chance of a scumteam here and there's been quite a few meh things about Shirou's play that I want to talk about (with Hop's help):

Shirou hard townreads Chenn for like no reason and both Chenn/Shirou's votes on the Johnny wagon were bad - Chenn was first/not seriously pushing Johnny and Shirou only joined the wagon after it became clearly leading to a lim.

Shirou's saying that Shirou/Chenn/Math + Auro/Flopz is one pool where there's 2 scum at one point based on the townblock then ALSO say that if me and Auro flip town they'd be more interested in pushing in the townblock afterwards. Completely ignoring Chenn there.

Chenn also immediately refused voting Shirou out as well and their trajectory on agreeing here is so bad.

Also Hop says Johnny has a history of bussing partners and then Johnny never actually voted on Chenn is a bit bleh

Tho after Shirou is all but guaranteeing they'll self-vote if there's a D3, I see no reason to join this as it's two bird one stone.

VOTE: Auro