Newbie 2050 | The End

[Malakittens]

[Harumi Ayasato]

I also have a personal hatred for posts that are just a vote with no other explanation.

As well as just about anything with no explanation for that matter, like your reads.

[RayFrost]

Vote: Harumi

I'm working so I can't give a detailed thing right now. Stay tuned.

Also, yes, this post is being made instead of me doing my reasoning and explanation with the vote because I thought it'd be funny. The vote itself is serious.

[Harumi Ayasato]

OK, that was genuinely funny. But I do await your reasoning when you get the chance.

[Lunar Martian]

Also, Lunar: You now know that all three SE’s have a connection to Krazy. What are your thoughts on Ray and I? You’ve only talked about Mala so far.

I think your answers implicate you more than the other two.

[volxen]

Also, Lunar: You now know that all three SE’s have a connection to Krazy. What are your thoughts on Ray and I? You’ve only talked about Mala so far.

I think your answers implicate you more than the other two.

I may have the most experience with Krazy out of the three of us. What I want to know is why you think that at least one SE being scum is the only possible explanation for the nightkill. You did some basic analysis in so far as saying that the three of us might have motive due to past experience with Krazy, but you haven’t made the case as to why that’s more likely than any other possible motivations for the nightkill (e.g. PR hunting, etc.).

Given that you immediately jumped on this “at least one SE must be scum” narrative after day two started, it’s obvious that you at least know who Krazy is outside of the context of this game. So following your own logic, why shouldn’t you be under scrutiny for the nightkill?

[RayFrost]

So, I'm going to start off by answering the first question you probably have, which is "why not lunar?"

My answer to which is I do not think Lunar is mafia. Instead of looking at what you think of as poor or missing logic from Lunar, I ask you to look at what would

motivate

Lunar to post in the way that they're doing currently. Does it make sense for a mafia member to be so polarizing to start the day off, essentially putting themself into the spotlight, after a rough start to the game day 1 where they were under suspicion?

On top of that, if we're assuming Lunar is mafia, why would Lunar pick Mala of all people to antagonize? There's lower hanging fruit to try and focus. Even if you're only looking at the SEs, Volxen would be an easier target for MafiaLunar to focus. If you look outside of the SEs, you could argue that either of Alice / Harumi would be an "easier" target than Mala depending on your personal views of them.

Now, you could say "well, MafiaLunar's not angling at [player] because they're mafia together" but that only works for one player.

Further still, why would MafiaLunar, who has previous experience with Krazy, try to use experience with Krazy as the metric for why the kill makes sense?

It does not make sense to me to find suspicion in a player's behavior simply because it is at odds with the way you think the game should be played or handled.

I won't disagree that some of Lunar's methods are perhaps anti-town in nature. But anti-town and mafia are different things.

[RayFrost]

Now, on to why Harumi:

I ask you, what has Harumi contributed to this game?

A theory disagreement with Alice which was more distracting than revealing.

Some point scoring[

A reads list which essentially boiled down to "these people are not people I'm trying to push right now and they've posted, so they're town" - "neutral for not posting" - "Lunar's a popular vote right now, so I'm going to follow what other people say" and "this seems like an easy target"

Most of Harumi's posting attacks the argument but doesn't truly assign mafia motivation to the player

This post looks like someone trying to get points (

my

reads are based off of multiple posts!).

"We have to punish mistakes like these!" has to be one of the more blatant "making an excuse for when this person flips town" posts I've seen. "You couldn't possibly suspect

me

for voting them. After all, they was playing so badly. We had to get rid of them, for the good of the town!"

Harumi only gives up on trying to argue with Lunar when Lunar stops, even though it had passed the point of productivity. Which shows a desire to generate more noise (and score more points).

Harumi "doesn't like" crab's entrance but also sees someone they can push off to the following day and wants to try and push the Lunar lynch through on day 1 instead. This type of posting allows Harumi to sit back without contributing to the discussion.

Then, when the momentum of the Lunar lynch seems to be dying, Harumi's suddenly is all for moving over to crab as the tide (oceanic pun intended) seems to be shifting.

Harumi is consistently behind other people when it comes to pushing or suspecting players.

This "you were doing okay at the end of D1" stuff is superfluous. Harumi's vote on crab was almost unexplained and born from seeing other people vote crab and seeing that a Lunar lynch wasn't going to go through. The "he was looking a little bit better" in day 1 is just a light, touch-once excuse for the vote swap when it happened, and we can see how easily Harumi switches back.

[RayFrost]

Even in the vote on Lunar itself, we don't see Harumi truly interacting with what Lunar posted.

Even with interactions happening between Lunar and Harumi, we don't see Harumi interacting.

Harumi's interactions, unless directly poked (and even sometimes when directly poked) is more hands-off than is actually reasonable.

Most of the posts that aren't of this nature are superfluous, low-hanging fruit style points without much substance when it comes to proper mafia hunting. The noise to signal is high, and I think it's intentional.

[Harumi Ayasato]

Now, on to why Harumi:

I ask you, what has Harumi contributed to this game?

A theory disagreement with Alice which was more distracting than revealing.

I mean, it didn't really come to much, but it was the beginning of D1. There wasn't really anything I could have been distracting from.

Some point scoring[

OK.

A reads list which essentially boiled down to "these people are not people I'm trying to push right now and they've posted, so they're town" - "neutral for not posting" - "Lunar's a popular vote right now, so I'm going to follow what other people say" and "this seems like an easy target"

The reason I wasn't trying to push them is because I didn't see anything scummy; my townreads are usually based off of "this person has performed a comparatively large amount of posting without doing something scummy, so they're probably town." I was also one of the people who started the push for Lunar in the first place.

Most of Harumi's posting attacks the argument but doesn't truly assign mafia motivation to the player

People who do anti-town things are less likely to be town than people who don't. Lunar in particular is not a newbie and therefore should know better.

This post looks like someone trying to get points (

my

reads are based off of multiple posts!).

Yes, I would presumably want to make my reads seem credible. It's my job to make my opinions credible.

"We have to punish mistakes like these!" has to be one of the more blatant "making an excuse for when this person flips town" posts I've seen. "You couldn't possibly suspect

me

for voting them. After all, they was playing so badly. We had to get rid of them, for the good of the town!"

Someone was making the argument "this isn't scum indicative because no scum would be stupid enough to do that", which I thought was stupid because that argument would let scum get away with blatant anti-town behavior.

Harumi only gives up on trying to argue with Lunar when Lunar stops, even though it had passed the point of productivity. Which shows a desire to generate more noise (and score more points).

For all I knew, maybe he would bust out something that would significantly change the game state. He didn't, though.

Harumi "doesn't like" crab's entrance but also sees someone they can push off to the following day and wants to try and push the Lunar lynch through on day 1 instead. This type of posting allows Harumi to sit back without contributing to the discussion.

At the time, I didn't think crab was scummier than Lunar.

Then, when the momentum of the Lunar lynch seems to be dying, Harumi's suddenly is all for moving over to crab as the tide (oceanic pun intended) seems to be shifting.

The thing with Mafia is that sometimes the game will change, causing my opinion to as well. There's a more detailed reason for my switch a couple responses below.

Harumi is consistently behind other people when it comes to pushing or suspecting players.

This is due mainly to when I check into the game. Admittedly my responses aren't super prompt.

This "you were doing okay at the end of D1" stuff is superfluous. Harumi's vote on crab was almost unexplained and born from seeing other people vote crab and seeing that a Lunar lynch wasn't going to go through. The "he was looking a little bit better" in day 1 is just a light, touch-once excuse for the vote swap when it happened, and we can see how easily Harumi switches back.

He was, though; he spent the latter part of D1 without any substantial anti-town behavior, while crab had just did something very anti-town. That's why I switched.

Responses above in bold.

[RayFrost]

Making your reads credible isn't done by trying to point out how credible they are.

Your vote for crab was literally you responding to Alice saying "I don't think crab's going to talk" with "well then I'll vote him to motivate" - which is as close you can get to a non-reason you can get to hop onto the bandwagon.

You then didn't respond to anything cook said in thread - no analysis of his posts, nothing. Instead, you just go "isn't deadline here?" and "nobody can think of a way to switch off you without seeming idiotic/scummy"

Which is a weird way to frame it. Personally, I like to think people stick to votes because they believe in the vote. People don't argue against votes they agree with. Not a matter of optics. But you seem very focused on optics.

Maybe you're just unlucky when it comes to post timing, but when a player's consistently behind on things and following the momentum of the town with little that seems to go against consensus, it appears to be coasting mafia to me.

I'm not going to try and convince you that you're mafia, as that would be a silly back and forth argument that fills the thread with more noise. I'll let everybody else check in with what they think, instead.

[Lunar Martian]

Also, Lunar: You now know that all three SE’s have a connection to Krazy. What are your thoughts on Ray and I? You’ve only talked about Mala so far.

I think your answers implicate you more than the other two.

I may have the most experience with Krazy out of the three of us. What I want to know is why you think that at least one SE being scum is the only possible explanation for the nightkill. You did some basic analysis in so far as saying that the three of us might have motive due to past experience with Krazy, but you haven’t made the case as to why that’s more likely than any other possible motivations for the nightkill (e.g. PR hunting, etc.).

Given that you immediately jumped on this “at least one SE must be scum” narrative after day two started, it’s obvious that you at least know who Krazy is outside of the context of this game. So following your own logic, why shouldn’t you be under scrutiny for the nightkill?

I know who Krazy is, but I don't know Krazy that well. If I were going to go for a shot like that I'd kill an SE who already had been posting. The was no reason to think that slot was obviously Town or a PR since it hadn't been posting. There are two possible explanations: Town is playing really poorly and so Mafia didn't want a replacement stirring things up, or it was a personality thing, like Krazy has a tell on someone. The latter would almost have to be an SE. The former I think would also be more likely to come from someone with experience.

[Lunar Martian]

Hot take: could it be Harumi and Statue?

[RayFrost]

I'm still not the type of person who enjoys calling scumteams and looking for connections until I get a confirmed flip.

Instead of doing the scumteam analysis, how about your thoughts about what I said about Harumi?

[Lunar Martian]

I'm still not the type of person who enjoys calling scumteams and looking for connections until I get a confirmed flip.

Instead of doing the scumteam analysis, how about your thoughts about what I said about Harumi?

I agree. Harumi has recently made a bunch of posts that made me lean scum there. It's not scumteam analysis. Those are the two people I most suspect individually. I still think one Mafia memeber is probably an SE though.

[Sirius9121]

Official Vote Count

Lunar Martian

(2): Malakittens, Harumi Ayasato

Harumi Ayasato

(1): RayFrost

Malakittens

(1): Lunar Martian

Not Voting

(3): volxen, AliceK, StatueSurfer

With 7 alive, it takes 4 to eliminate.

Deadline

: (expired on 2021-02-02 07:41:00)

[Harumi Ayasato]

I'm still not the type of person who enjoys calling scumteams and looking for connections until I get a confirmed flip.

Instead of doing the scumteam analysis, how about your thoughts about what I said about Harumi?

I agree. Harumi has recently made a bunch of posts that made me lean scum there. It's not scumteam analysis. Those are the two people I most suspect individually.

I still think one Mafia memeber is probably an SE though.

Could you really quickly brief me on why you think this? I don't quite follow your reasoning. (The bolded part.)

[AliceK]

I actually slightly suspicious of RayFrost right now.

[AliceK]

Hot take: could it be Harumi and Statue?

Would they make some obvious that they are playing with the same agenda? Both of them were pushing you Day 1.

[Lunar Martian]

I'm still not the type of person who enjoys calling scumteams and looking for connections until I get a confirmed flip.

Instead of doing the scumteam analysis, how about your thoughts about what I said about Harumi?

I agree. Harumi has recently made a bunch of posts that made me lean scum there. It's not scumteam analysis. Those are the two people I most suspect individually.

I still think one Mafia memeber is probably an SE though.

Could you really quickly brief me on why you think this? I don't quite follow your reasoning. (The bolded part.)

Also, Lunar: You now know that all three SE’s have a connection to Krazy. What are your thoughts on Ray and I? You’ve only talked about Mala so far.

I think your answers implicate you more than the other two.

I may have the most experience with Krazy out of the three of us. What I want to know is why you think that at least one SE being scum is the only possible explanation for the nightkill. You did some basic analysis in so far as saying that the three of us might have motive due to past experience with Krazy, but you haven’t made the case as to why that’s more likely than any other possible motivations for the nightkill (e.g. PR hunting, etc.).

Given that you immediately jumped on this “at least one SE must be scum” narrative after day two started, it’s obvious that you at least know who Krazy is outside of the context of this game. So following your own logic, why shouldn’t you be under scrutiny for the nightkill?

I know who Krazy is, but I don't know Krazy that well. If I were going to go for a shot like that I'd kill an SE who already had been posting. The was no reason to think that slot was obviously Town or a PR since it hadn't been posting. There are two possible explanations: Town is playing really poorly and so Mafia didn't want a replacement stirring things up, or it was a personality thing, like Krazy has a tell on someone. The latter would almost have to be an SE. The former I think would also be more likely to come from someone with experience.

[Lunar Martian]

I actually slightly suspicious of RayFrost right now.

Doubt it. Explain though?

[Lunar Martian]

Hot take: could it be Harumi and Statue?

Would they make some obvious that they are playing with the same agenda? Both of them were pushing you Day 1.

I mean that's pure WIFOM. I don't have any reason to think they are partners. I just suspect both of them. Like I said, I think there's an SE in the mix.

[Malakittens]

Will be posting more tmrw. Feeling like crap from the 2nd vaccine.

[Harumi Ayasato]

I'm still not the type of person who enjoys calling scumteams and looking for connections until I get a confirmed flip.

Instead of doing the scumteam analysis, how about your thoughts about what I said about Harumi?

I agree. Harumi has recently made a bunch of posts that made me lean scum there. It's not scumteam analysis. Those are the two people I most suspect individually.

I still think one Mafia memeber is probably an SE though.

Could you really quickly brief me on why you think this? I don't quite follow your reasoning. (The bolded part.)

Also, Lunar: You now know that all three SE’s have a connection to Krazy. What are your thoughts on Ray and I? You’ve only talked about Mala so far.

I think your answers implicate you more than the other two.

I may have the most experience with Krazy out of the three of us. What I want to know is why you think that at least one SE being scum is the only possible explanation for the nightkill. You did some basic analysis in so far as saying that the three of us might have motive due to past experience with Krazy, but you haven’t made the case as to why that’s more likely than any other possible motivations for the nightkill (e.g. PR hunting, etc.).

Given that you immediately jumped on this “at least one SE must be scum” narrative after day two started, it’s obvious that you at least know who Krazy is outside of the context of this game. So following your own logic, why shouldn’t you be under scrutiny for the nightkill?

I know who Krazy is, but I don't know Krazy that well. If I were going to go for a shot like that I'd kill an SE who already had been posting. The was no reason to think that slot was obviously Town or a PR since it hadn't been posting. There are two possible explanations: Town is playing really poorly and so Mafia didn't want a replacement stirring things up, or it was a personality thing, like Krazy has a tell on someone. The latter would almost have to be an SE. The former I think would also be more likely to come from someone with experience.

You're forgetting option number three; that mafia simply had a lapse in their judgement, which would likely imply a newbie.

[Lunar Martian]

That's not a realistic possibility. It's never a small-brained play to kill a blank slot. It's some sort of big brain move.