Newbie 2050 | The End

[Lunar Martian]

Your playstyle is anti-town. Anti-town people should be executed. This is why I am focusing on your playstyle.

Also, when people don't share their reasoning, it's easy to assume it's because there is no good reason--or, rather, because this reason is tied to them being scum.

Scum take the easy path. You being unable to follow my thought process doesn't mean there isn't a logical thought process to follow. I really dislike your lazy assumption that I'm scum rather than an attempt to solve me. That said, it is suggestive that you are new/bad Town rather than Mafia.

[Harumi Ayasato]

The burden is not on me to defend you, the burden is on you.

[Lunar Martian]

Wrong. The burden is on you to prove your accusation. Statistically, everyone is probably Town. You have to make a case why people aren't Town. Now you're just being ridiculous.

[AliceK]

I start to think that Lunar/Harumi is tvt.

[Lunar Martian]

I start to think that Lunar/Harumi is tvt.

Same.

[Harumi Ayasato]

Well, yeah, people should prove their own scumreads but you're apparently saying that I should find town justification for your actions??? For some reason???

[Lunar Martian]

Well, yeah, people should prove their own scumreads but you're apparently saying that I should find town justification for your actions??? For some reason???

I mean... you should look for both right? If you're Town you're not out to get everyone else on the playerlist. You're trying to sort everyone else. So yeah, you should be looking for evidence that goes both ways and consider things that might indicate that people are Town as well as things that indicate they may be Mafia. I'm not saying it's your job to prove I'm Town. I'm saying it's your job to consider the possibility, at least internally.

[RayFrost]

I feel like a lot of the narrative here is that Lunar is anti-town, therefore they should be lynched.

I prefer to look at how I'd expect mafia to try to play in a general sense:

slightly

pro-town, but with narrow vision to minimize connections / slip ups. Trying to keep as many options open as possible to be able to slip to and from bandwagons. Trying to keep a low enough profile to avoid notice on their behavior.

Obviously, people break from this, but the motivation to avoid notice is a big one because it's the simplest way to get by, relatively speaking. If you're too noticeable, you suffer from one of the two extremes: "he's so town but he's still alive???" or "he's so obviously mafia let's get this guy out of here."

I personally feel that harumi is the best fit for my expected behavior with variance to account for the overall lower level of activity from this playerlist than is probably normal in most games these days.

The argument between Harumi and Lunar this past page is essentially a rehash of their argument they had day 1 just with different words, and it doesn't really impact my read much on either of them.

[RayFrost]

I do agree with Lunar's assessment that the fact Harumi "promised" to do a dive on Lunar but, for some reason, didn't feel motivated enough to do it until after being pushed near lynch threshold is additional reason to be suspect.

You should'nt need spurring on to do something that you perceive to increase the chances of a lynch on a mafia member.

[volxen]

Well, yeah, people should prove their own scumreads but you're apparently saying that I should find town justification for your actions??? For some reason???

I mean... you should look for both right? If you're Town you're not out to get everyone else on the playerlist. You're trying to sort everyone else. So yeah, you should be looking for evidence that goes both ways and consider things that might indicate that people are Town as well as things that indicate they may be Mafia. I'm not saying it's your job to prove I'm Town. I'm saying it's your job to consider the possibility, at least internally.

Just because people are coming to the conclusion that you are likely scum doesn’t mean that they haven’t considered the possibility of you being town at some point. I think that on the whole, your play is more likely to come from a scum mindset rather than a town mindset. I disagree with Ray’s argument that your play is anti-town rather than scummy.

You are saying here in a general sense that everyone should be looking at your actions and considering the possibility that everything that you are doing is coming from a town mindset. I’m interested in what’s likely, not in what’s possible. There are several things that you’ve done that I think are more likely to come from scum!you than town!you:

- The absolute confidence in the “SE theory” that you claim to have. I’m talking about the theory in and of itself, not about how it relates to your reads on any particular SE. It’s one thing to put the theory out there and talk about how all of the SE’s would have motive to nightkill Krazy because of past experience with him. Logically, it is correct that anyone who knows who Krazy is outside of the context of the game would have motive. But any time someone suggests an alternative motive for the nightkill, you could just counter with “no, I know I’m right, an SE has to be scum”. You talk here about internal processing, but I don’t see any evidence that you are actually thinking about the nightkill, which would include giving serious consideration to the other possible explanations for why Krazy was nightkilled which have been brought up repeatedly. I don’t think that you have engaged on this issue in good faith, and I don’t think that town!you spends this entire day phase talking about how at least one of three slots must be scum because of the nightkill alone.

- There’s also the issue of how you have actually played around the SE theory. First, you started off by pushing Mala, and you later said it was a “low information guess” when pressed as to why. It was only after you started taking heat for pushing Mala and got up to E-2, that you switched gears and said that Mala was “looking very town” (with no explanation as to what changed your read on Mala) and started talking about how your SE theory pointed to me being scum. Ever since then you’ve just been falling back on the SE theory as a reason for scumreading me. You’ve effectively been using it as a reason to have a permanent scumread on me without having to actually evaluate my posts or engage with me.

- Your selectiveness with respect to which questions you answer vs which you don’t answer, and also on when you choose to elaborate on your reads vs when you don’t. Yes, you are not the only person to do this – Alice, for example, has not explained many of her reads, and has dodged a lot of the questions asked of her. But at times, you’ve gone into detail with your reads/explanations, and at other times you don’t. You’ve clearly demonstrated that you are capable of elaborating on things when you really want to, so it’s not a playstyle thing. A lot of the questions that you’ve dodged were legitimate questions that you should have answered, so I don’t think that it’s towny.

- For example, one thing I’ve noticed is that when you are engaging with Harumi, you tend to go into more detail and try to counter all of the points that he makes. If he asks you a question you will usually answer it. When I ask you a question, it’s about a 50/50 chance that you will respond, and from there, about a 50/50 chance that you will explain your reasoning when you do respond. In fact, you don’t seem to really have any interest in actually engaging with me, despite the fact that your SE theory has me in your POE. You seem content to keep me in your POE based on that alone. If anything, shouldn’t that mean that I am one of the slots that you would be the most interested in engaging with and questioning? You only asked me one question on day one, and outside of you asking all of the SE’s about their past experiences with Krazy, I’ve initiated all of the interactions that you and I have had. I think that if you were town and were as suspicious of me as you claim to be, you would have a lot more interest in questioning me and trying to see my mindset.

[volxen]

@Alice would you at least mind telling us why you TR Lunar?

Alice you really need to answer this so we can see where you are coming from. Do you have an individual townread on Lunar, or is it only based on associatives (i.e., that you think that Lunar can’t be partnered with anyone)?

[Lunar Martian]

Volxen there are a few reasons I don't engage with you much. Your posts are long, dry, and hard to read. Most of the questions you ask are things I've already addressed or seem rhetorical. You are misrepresenting me so badly that most of the things you say aren't worth responding to.

[Harumi Ayasato]

Well, then, I'll ask you a question myself. What would it take for you to change your mind on the SE theory?

[Lunar Martian]

Someone would have to present an argument for why an alternative theory is not only possible, but more likely than my theory.

So far other contenders are:
- random kill - possible, but probably less likely since the odds of the kill being random are low and then the odds of that being random are 1/6 (8 alive - 2 Mafia).
- PR hunting - not realistic, there was no reason to think a blank slot was PR
- preserving the gamestate more generally (replacement being a potential threat to Mafia who thought Town was way off base), rather than specifically worried about Krazy. This is the only alternative I'd buy of the three. It's possible, but still suggests an experienced player made the kill, since I doubt someone brand new would have enough awareness of the gamestate.

[Lunar Martian]

Logically, it is correct that anyone who knows who Krazy is outside of the context of the game would have motive. But any time someone suggests an alternative motive for the nightkill, you could just counter with “no, I know I’m right, an SE has to be scum”. You talk here about internal processing, but I don’t see any evidence that you are actually thinking about the nightkill, which would include giving serious consideration to the other possible explanations for why Krazy was nightkilled which have been brought up repeatedly. I don’t think that you have engaged on this issue in good faith, and I don’t think that town!you spends this entire day phase talking about how at least one of three slots must be scum because of the nightkill alone.

This for example is such a dishonest reading of what I've posted that it's bordering on a straight-up lie.

[Harumi Ayasato]

Someone would have to present an argument for why an alternative theory is not only possible, but more likely than my theory.

So far other contenders are:
- random kill - possible, but probably less likely since the odds of the kill being random are low and then the odds of that being random are 1/6 (8 alive - 2 Mafia).
- PR hunting - not realistic, there was no reason to think a blank slot was PR
- preserving the gamestate more generally (replacement being a potential threat to Mafia who thought Town was way off base), rather than specifically worried about Krazy. This is the only alternative I'd buy of the three. It's possible, but still suggests an experienced player made the kill, since I doubt someone brand new would have enough awareness of the gamestate.

Alright. If scum were experienced, why would they waste time killing a slot that's not harming them just because of past meta? You'd think that experienced scum would not do such a thing.

[AliceK]

Day ends in 4 hours. I need to decide who to vote. Is Lunar reall at E-1? That doesn't sound right.

[Lunar Martian]

Me and Harumi both have 3 votes, so E-1.

[Lunar Martian]

Cook needs a prod and Mala is one hour away from needing a prod. Presumably the deadline will be extended? I really prefer statue or Volxen over Harumi, but currently there isn't time to flashwagon them most likely.

[Lunar Martian]

I see Cook is dead and that bah post was just really late. Mala will still need a prod though. If Harumi is Mafia then Statue is certainly Town, while if Harumi is Town that makes me very confident in Statue and Volxen being the team.

[Harumi Ayasato]

I can't help but notice that you didn't answer my question. Please do so.

[Harumi Ayasato]

EBWOP: You might've mistaken my question for me just speculating and not actually expecting an answer. It wasn't. I do expect your thoughts, @Lunar.

[Lunar Martian]

Someone would have to present an argument for why an alternative theory is not only possible, but more likely than my theory.

So far other contenders are:
- random kill - possible, but probably less likely since the odds of the kill being random are low and then the odds of that being random are 1/6 (8 alive - 2 Mafia).
- PR hunting - not realistic, there was no reason to think a blank slot was PR
- preserving the gamestate more generally (replacement being a potential threat to Mafia who thought Town was way off base), rather than specifically worried about Krazy. This is the only alternative I'd buy of the three. It's possible, but still suggests an experienced player made the kill, since I doubt someone brand new would have enough awareness of the gamestate.

Alright. If scum were experienced, why would they waste time killing a slot that's not harming them just because of past meta? You'd think that experienced scum would not do such a thing.

I didn't answer because I've already talked about it. They might have said something that Krazy would know is a tell, or Krazy might be good at reading them. For sure no newbie would have any particular reason to kill Krazy.

[AliceK]

You guys are at E-1, time to claim...

[Harumi Ayasato]

Since Lunar is also at E-1 I don't think claiming is a good idea, but I will if other people ask me to.