TM 2021 Large Normal 2: Wikipedia Integer Facts (Over)

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Post Post #1425 (ISO) » Tue Feb 02, 2021 1:47 pm

Post by OkaPoka »

In post 1424, Cephrir wrote:if we're going to start putting stock in
"i'm vla"
"scum"

because mastina said so then eject me out of the airlock and directly into the sun immediately please.
on what im confused where is this coming from

also want to go fishing
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Post Post #1426 (ISO) » Tue Feb 02, 2021 1:49 pm

Post by Cephrir »

mastina, queen of all she surveys, first of her name, lady of the heavens and the number facts, princess of the holy roman empire, she who decrees the role pm colors, goddess of scumhunting has ordained your death titus what say you in your defense just kidding there's no trial for anyone with the sheer malice to dare be vla
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Post Post #1427 (ISO) » Tue Feb 02, 2021 1:51 pm

Post by Cephrir »

i guess i'm just lolcatting now because more than half the town is taking mastina seriously and i can't deal with it
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Post Post #1428 (ISO) » Tue Feb 02, 2021 1:55 pm

Post by OkaPoka »

fire away ceph but mastina isn't a bad player

she's demonstrated more than enough solid townplay in my experience, maybe the past is different and i won't get into it but at least in the past two years she's up there.
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Post Post #1429 (ISO) » Tue Feb 02, 2021 1:56 pm

Post by Cephrir »

In post 1425, OkaPoka wrote:
In post 1424, Cephrir wrote:if we're going to start putting stock in
"i'm vla"
"scum"

because mastina said so then eject me out of the airlock and directly into the sun immediately please.
on what im confused where is this coming from

also want to go fishing
mastina's trajectory on titus is:

--titus is scum for posting she's vla
--this one interaction could be s/s with LLD (who, notably, has not flipped yet)
--"80% confidence"

really, that's it, i just checked to make sure i wasn't crazy
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Post Post #1430 (ISO) » Tue Feb 02, 2021 1:57 pm

Post by Cephrir »

and somehow im in a group of 16 other people who mostly seem to think that's reasonable.
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Post Post #1431 (ISO) » Tue Feb 02, 2021 1:58 pm

Post by Cephrir »

i'm going to look so bad if these slots ever flip scum and i'm not even townreading them lmao.
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Post Post #1432 (ISO) » Tue Feb 02, 2021 2:01 pm

Post by OkaPoka »

how about we just don't take mastina at face value when she displays these percentages

i think most people when they see mastina say x is 90% scum, know what she actually means if you compared it to someone else
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Post Post #1433 (ISO) » Tue Feb 02, 2021 2:03 pm

Post by Cephrir »

sorry, as you can see i quickly become insane when we talk about mastina but a large percentage of the game is set on caring what she thinks and using her as a secure base from which to explore so while i would love to talk about something else it has thus far been impossible
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Post Post #1434 (ISO) » Tue Feb 02, 2021 2:06 pm

Post by Cephrir »

overthrow the warpers and install dannflor as supreme overlord

viva la revolucion
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Post Post #1435 (ISO) » Tue Feb 02, 2021 2:07 pm

Post by OkaPoka »

about fishing want to fish for some monkeys

i know i just got burned last game but why are we townreading a50 anyhow, i checked his iso and he has 100 posts which seems, high because i can only recall him vs hopkirk lol
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Post Post #1436 (ISO) » Tue Feb 02, 2021 2:08 pm

Post by Cephrir »

if a50 didn't have a bunch of posts about nothing i wouldn't suspect im of being any particular alignment but rather of having been abducted and replaced by an alien
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Post Post #1437 (ISO) » Tue Feb 02, 2021 2:10 pm

Post by Dannflor »

In post 1435, OkaPoka wrote:i know i just got burned last game but why are we townreading a50 anyhow, i checked his iso and he has 100 posts which seems, high because i can only recall him vs hopkirk lol
did you get a particularly different impression last game?
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Post Post #1438 (ISO) » Tue Feb 02, 2021 2:10 pm

Post by Dannflor »

or is that what you mean by you got burned and you're just fine with maybe making the same mistake again
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Post Post #1439 (ISO) » Tue Feb 02, 2021 2:12 pm

Post by Dannflor »

that was unintentionally accusatory, I'm just wondering why you find that odd from A50
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Post Post #1440 (ISO) » Tue Feb 02, 2021 2:12 pm

Post by mastina »

In post 1365, innocentvillager wrote:1) This is an unprecedented situation, where literally 16/18 people were in last game which happened back to back so literally EVERYONE is going to use that as a baseline and EVERYONE knows that other people are going to be referencing their play last game
So? That still doesn't mean, of a hypothetical 16 players, you're going to get even close to 16 brainstorming how to be different from last game if rolling scum twice.

You'd be lucky if it was 4; a realistic projection would be 1-2.

You might not understand that, but while Team Mafia is meant to be a team game where there's four people involved per slot in every game, in practice, only about 50% of teams have cross-game players, and of those 50% of the teams, only about half of them have it be more than one player, and of those teams, only about 25% of them are going to do so for a scum game.

Team Mafia, as an event, has ALWAYS had a "not my game, not my problem" apathy to it, for literal years, ESPECIALLY for the slots who roll scum.

Why do you think that an incredibly common towntell is, "X gave thoughts from teammate Y, they're more likely town"? Did you think that came out of nowhere? No, that tell exists because of a longstanding team mafia meta, a meta not specific to any team but specific to the event itself. Teammates don't care about their teammates' scumgames. Any time a teammate does intervene, it is the exception to the general rule of apathy for games not your own.

So hercule-scum wouldn't have 16 players invested.
He'd be lucky to have 2.

Because even scumbuddies upon seeing hercule was scum aren't innately inherently going to pull a strategic meeting to plan. Who in this game has the mindset for that? I do, LLD maybe does, Almost50 definitely does, Titus certainly would, the worst would, Cephrir/jjh are possible but not assured. If the scumteam doesn't have those players helping him, it comes down to hercule on his lonesome. Him and him alone, to cover his bases.
In post 1365, innocentvillager wrote:Specifically, I want to be convinced that hercule has transformed like, in multiple multiple ways (or covered "EVERY Base"), that others haven't expressed. The more you say it as if he's done a 180 in MULTIPLE ways, the more I feel that I'm probably just missing something. would you mind tl;dr'ing me/quoting me on it?
Not today, today's another low-site-presence day, but in the mean time: try an exercise: do an iso of hercule from last game.
If you're not going to bother isoing all of hercule last game, you can read the first like 20ish posts and then read the last 60ish or so. Doing that will give you a frame of reference for what I saw from him that game.

Then iso him this game.

Look at the differences yourself.

I'll do the work myself to show it when I have more time, but while you're waiting for me you can do it yourself.
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Post Post #1441 (ISO) » Tue Feb 02, 2021 2:13 pm

Post by OkaPoka »

yours thoughts my differ from mine but:

kinda~ it feels a little scaled down i guess in stuff. last game he had the whole everyone come meta me which did pull my attention a bit but this game he doesn't have that same bombastic flair (ig?) but his post count looks high

i got burned because obviously my meta on a50 is sorely outdated but i still feel like it scummy even incl. last game
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Post Post #1442 (ISO) » Tue Feb 02, 2021 2:17 pm

Post by Dannflor »

In post 1440, mastina wrote:Why do you think that an incredibly common towntell is, "X gave thoughts from teammate Y, they're more likely town"? Did you think that came out of nowhere? No, that tell exists because of a longstanding team mafia meta, a meta not specific to any team but specific to the event itself. Teammates don't care about their teammates' scumgames. Any time a teammate does intervene, it is the exception to the general rule of apathy for games not your own.
this is probably true but it's so weird given winning a scum game in this event almost guarantees a good shot at winning the event
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Post Post #1443 (ISO) » Tue Feb 02, 2021 2:21 pm

Post by mastina »

In post 1375, Cephrir wrote:do u think that can't come from scum? i don't.
Could it come from scum? Sure. But while the wall is slightly disjointed and the reasons on the players aren't necessarily unfakeable. There is nuance to the thought process and the way he developed the reads and what the reads are lead me to think town.

So I don't think it was scum.
In post 1379, innocentvillager wrote:mastina, who i believe is very likely to be town, has a super strong townread on you, and if she can convince me/make me see her POV, i would gain an invaluable townread and can push against your wagon
Have you heard of the phrase "innocent until proven guilty"?

In a game where there's more town than scum, more players are going to be innocent than guilty, so the default assumption is innocent, until evidence amounts to show they are guilty.

The burden of proof is on the accuser, not the defense of the accused.

Which is to say--I can and will show why I feel hercule is strongly town, but I shouldn't need to in order for hercule to be town if you look at the "case" against him and realize there isn't much of one. (I may have watched too much Matlock and Perry Mason tho so phrases like 'standard of reasonable doubt' stand out to me.)

(Basically, I'll show why he's town, but I shouldn't need to, because the standard should be to try and show why he's scum, not the other way around.)
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Post Post #1444 (ISO) » Tue Feb 02, 2021 2:28 pm

Post by mastina »

In post 1384, innocentvillager wrote:i don't have scum!mastina meta though, this is purely based on seeing her posting style, i feel like it'd be very very difficult to keep up what's she's doing here as scum
Oh it is indeed difficult to keep up for scumastina. Not impossible, but difficult. But if you want scum meta on me to establish the chances of me keeping this up as scum, you need only ask. :P

I've been able to track down every scumgame of mine ever onsite, tho I've lost the link to the post where I did so, and it being every scumgame means it doesn't give a good highlight (there's like...80ish or so scumgames, aint nobody gonna read through those), but it's ridiculously easy for me to find all of my scumgames in the last 4ish years or so. (Older than 4 years is probably to the point of being not truly relevant.)
In post 1389, innocentvillager wrote:actually tbh i don't know why im trying to offer points for town!mastina, some paranoia on that slot is probably good anyway as a sanity check down the line
But-but...my N1 nightkill! :cry: I won't get nightkilled N1 if too many town are paranoid of me. D:

:P
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Post Post #1445 (ISO) » Tue Feb 02, 2021 2:28 pm

Post by innocentvillager »

@mastina

i don't think you understand my 1st point, im not talking about "16 players potentially coaching him" or whatever, my point is that if he's scum there are literally ~14 town players who are trying to read him who were literally in last game. Because of that there's more pressure than a normal game to play "differently", and scum should feel tons of eyes on them this game. sorry if that was confusing

re: 2nd point i also wanted to make sure i wasn't crazy that you'd like already posted these arguments. im not promising doing your exercise in the near future but i will put that on my to-do list. and thanks in advance if you decide to effort-towncase him more in depth

pedit: re: "innocent until proven guilty" i don't really see it the same way, sure baseline is that he's 13/17 = 76.5% to be town which is more likely than not but i don't like the innocent until proven guilty approach necessarily just from that lol. and you don't need to do anything either way, im just saying i would be more convinced if you did :)
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Post Post #1446 (ISO) » Tue Feb 02, 2021 2:28 pm

Post by OkaPoka »

that's a little silly to say we should use the legal system as precedent for playing mafia

if you are okay with miselimming town to elim scum then "innocent until proven guilty" is not a paradigm that matters
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Post Post #1447 (ISO) » Tue Feb 02, 2021 2:31 pm

Post by Ythan »

But the burden of evidence is.
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Post Post #1448 (ISO) » Tue Feb 02, 2021 2:32 pm

Post by mastina »

In post 1401, Titus wrote:Guys, LLD isn't scum either. I see no reason beyond her personality to think she is.
Sadly, this is Titus's scumgame so this is a stance I cannot follow. :(
In post 1421, Almost50 wrote:@Titus: Your defense of LLD won't work, simply because you are -supposedly- her Scum partner.
She really is.

I feel like I have a borderline-soulread on Titus here. That might not be the right word, but I feel like I have a deep understanding of Titus's play and methods and that this just isn't her towngame and I probably can explain this, albeit with difficulty.

I realize I haven't explained why she's scum--but I know she's not town here, and given no 3ps, that means scum.
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Post Post #1449 (ISO) » Tue Feb 02, 2021 2:34 pm

Post by mastina »

In post 1429, Cephrir wrote:mastina's trajectory on titus is:
--titus is scum for posting she's vla
--this one interaction could be s/s with LLD (who, notably, has not flipped yet)
--"80% confidence"
really, that's it, i just checked to make sure i wasn't crazy
Yes that would be due to me not having explained my scumread on Titus.
Titus isn't scum for posting she's V/LA; Titus isn't scum for the interaction with LLD (tho that contributes); Titus is indeed scum with 80+% confidence, but why she's scum is something I haven't explained yet.

I just could tell instantly.

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