Mini Normal 2191 | Endgame

[maxwell]

I just went through all of chumbo's mafia games, then compared 2 of maduisha's (town/mafia), and 2 of cabd's (town games - not mafia for years?) to this one

chumbo gave me nothing

viewtopic.php?p=12524008&user_select%5B%5D=35093 this game
viewtopic.php?p=12449995&user_select%5B%5D=35093 mason
viewtopic.php?p=12381275&user_select%5B%5D=35093 mafia


maduisha's were surprisingly similar, the main thing I noticed was that she was aggressive a lottt faster as town, and with mafia her tone visibly shifted. I also noticed a tendency to post too much information compared to town, like not a "slip" but rather trying too hard

viewtopic.php?p=12524333&user_select%5B%5D=33961 this game
viewtopic.php?f=50&t=82949&user_select%5B%5D=33961 mafia
viewtopic.php?p=12469439&user_select%5B%5D=33961 town


I was planning to keep going down the list of players before posting anything, but holy heck is cabd posting differently in this game. I mean I get that they are games of different sizes with different players, and that can affect what you write a lot, but it's like night and day

viewtopic.php?p=12569559&user_select%5B%5D=20847 this game
viewtopic.php?f=3&t=84949&user_select%5B%5D=20847 town 1
viewtopic.php?f=2&t=85085&user_select%5B%5D=20847 town 2

it's so stark that it's noticeable even if you don't read what he wrote and just scroll down the pages quickly

Why'd you look at the meta of those players in particular?

[maxwell]

Meanwhile worrying fuzzy is getting pocketed by talk about pizza.

[TheFuzzylogic99]

Max- what do you think of Sam's general activity level. To me it seems like (except for the above post )they has done little and is pretty much lurking . Giving the VT claim which is a pretty safe claim it seems like it is possible she is scum maybe hiding back and seeing if town will miselim themself. Any thoughts?


@Max- If i get pocketed by pizza talk am okay with that. I am like Chewbacca. Always thinking with my stomach.

seriously though I dont take those convos in consideration when TR or SR a player. Though i do love pizza

[samantha97]

Why'd you look at the meta of those players in particular?

was scrolling down page 1 then checked the most recent page and saw cadb post so was like ok I'll do him next lol

I already have a pretty good idea of dkkoba

[TheFuzzylogic99]

ok it seems Sam is going down the list....
only fair to give them a chance

[Umlaut]

I'm having trouble thinking about this game today.

VOTE: Sam

Can we just do this today and hold off on the PRs? If we assume exactly one of {Cabd, Fuzzy, maxwell} is scum and one of {me, clidd, Maduisha, samantha} is scum (and I do assume that), then honestly I'm much more confident about who is the scum in the latter group.

[samantha97]

why separate yourself with vanillas?

[Umlaut]

Because my role is close to 0 utility and not part of the "not all these roles can exist" mechanical solving process we have going.

[clidd]

VOTE: Sam

[samantha97]

I don't have the same time invested as you all so I won't be that bothered if you lynch me today, but you are going to be in lylo tomorrow if you do

since I'm going to bed I'll just say that my instinct was that clidd and cadb were mafia going into day 2, it's only roles gave me any reason to think otherwise

[Cabd]

Not hammering. Or even debating it yet. I want clidd dictating night actions first.

[maxwell]

Max- what do you think of Sam's general activity level. To me it seems like (except for the above post )they has done little and is pretty much lurking . Giving the VT claim which is a pretty safe claim it seems like it is possible she is scum maybe hiding back and seeing if town will miselim themself. Any thoughts?


@Max- If i get pocketed by pizza talk am okay with that. I am like Chewbacca. Always thinking with my stomach.

seriously though I dont take those convos in consideration when TR or SR a player. Though i do love pizza

She's been in the game for 2 days and has made reads, is trying to meta everyone in the game apparently, there's nothing at all to believe she's not legitimately trying to solve the game.

Compare that to Maduisha, who's been in the game the entire time but isn't even trying to take stances on most of the players.

[Cabd]

Oh and before I go to sleep myself. The cohort is a bunch of players from the 2013/14 era that I have a TON of history with.


Fferyllt. Syryana. Borkjerfkin. Cephrir. Penguin_Alien (who happens to be my wife, we met in a newbie game haha), guy in freezer, Bell, Tammy, Nachonamma8, LLD, notscience etc. Group of about fifteen of us that have more completed games with each other than without.

[maxwell]

Near absolute certain sam flips town and the game is fast-tracked to a loss when it happens.

[clidd]

UNVOTE: Sam

[maxwell]

I don't have the same time invested as you all so I won't be that bothered if you lynch me today, but you are going to be in lylo tomorrow if you do

since I'm going to bed I'll just say that my instinct was that clidd and cadb were mafia going into day 2, it's only roles gave me any reason to think otherwise

Why clidd, out of curiosity?

[maxwell]

I think the early game between koba/chumbo is very rarely ever scum/scum, scum rarely give early townreads on their partners.

[clidd]

Max, do you think Maduisha is actually more likely to be scum than Sam? I would like to see a scumcase or something like that if you have the energy. If not, just summarize by citing posts.

Nothing Sam has done so far has given me the impression that she is genuinely town/solving.

[maxwell]

I think voting in VTs is just punting on a hard decision because you're afraid of getting it wrong, on a day where we're allowed to get it wrong. Ultimately, in a sam-town world, where does that leave us? Cabd claims a guilty tomorrow and you're left trying to sort who is fakeclaiming PR, still. Same decision we're facing down today. At that point do people finally consider maduisha scum? I sort of doubt it. Meanwhile if we eliminate one of us today, we learn that person is town, their read on their counterpart is good, their partner has tied themselves to them enough this day phase that they can be caught.

Like, in a hypothetical world where I'm scum with sam, I can't win no matter what, basically. One of us gets flipped after the other pretty much always. What concerns me is the idea that I get ignored > she gets eliminated and flips town > I STILL get ignored despite having been right about her. I would legitimately vote myself before voting sam.

[maxwell]

Max, do you think Maduisha is actually more likely to be scum than Sam? I would like to see a scumcase or something like that if you have the energy. If not, just summarize by citing posts.

Nothing Sam has done so far has given me the impression that she is genuinely town/solving.

I think my exchange with Maduisha pretty much sealed the idea in my mind that she's scum. I think the way she's playing is cautious/avoidant and that comes from scum in a situation where the pushes they can make are limited to certain strategic ones. I can try to case it to make it easy to understand but I'm not sure if I'll be able to explain it in a way that'll come across.

I admit, sam's posts have been underwhelming, the vote on madu on entering wasn't great simply because it showed a lack of awareness to the gamestate, but do I think she's scum for it? It feels less likely because I don't see her making any sort of strategic push that would be advantageous to scum.

I could of course just be wrong, typing it over made me doubt myself a little bit, because I could still see her as possibly being scum, I can't say her posting has been super townie or anything, it's just my feelings about Maduisha overriding everything at the moment.

[maxwell]

Should also clarify that I'm still far more confident in cabd-scum than I am of Maduisha which is why I'd rather resolve the PR claims today. There is a slight speculative element to my read in that I somewhat doubt Cabs pulls a PR counterclaim gambit as scum if his partner is a lurker he can't depend on to carry to endgame, but that's just a guess, not really something to pin a case on.

[clidd]

Ok, I will resume the topic on the hood with Umlaut tomorrow then.

Still need to see reasons (with posts) of scum!Maduisha over scum!Sam.

For now: VOTE: Cabd

[Umlaut]

What's VC?

[Umlaut]

I think voting in VTs is just punting on a hard decision because you're afraid of getting it wrong, on a day where we're allowed to get it wrong. Ultimately, in a sam-town world, where does that leave us? Cabd claims a guilty tomorrow and you're left trying to sort who is fakeclaiming PR, still. Same decision we're facing down today. At that point do people finally consider maduisha scum? I sort of doubt it. Meanwhile if we eliminate one of us today, we learn that person is town, their read on their counterpart is good, their partner has tied themselves to them enough this day phase that they can be caught.

Well, I kind of agree that it's putting off a hard decision, but it's putting it off until we have more information, not just putting it off for the sake of not having to think about it. ideally tonight either Mafia helps us choose by killing a PR or we get another actual PR result (though we do have to decide which result is actual). By eliminating a VT we accomplish this much even if we get it wrong.

Speaking for myself I will absolutely go for Maduisha scum if Sam is known to be town. Pretty sure clidd will as well. Can't speak for anyone else but it's not the insurmountable hill you're making it out to be here.

[Maduisha]

I'm having trouble thinking about this game today.

VOTE: Sam

Can we just do this today and hold off on the PRs? If we assume exactly one of {Cabd, Fuzzy, maxwell} is scum and one of {me, clidd, Maduisha, samantha} is scum (and I do assume that), then honestly I'm much more confident about who is the scum in the latter group.

Isn't this what I proposed yesterday? Yes, I'm okay with doing that if nobody is willing to hop onto the Fuzzy wagon with me. I'm okay with voting Samantha, you, or even myself if it helps narrowing the PoE, even though I would rather not because I know I'm town.