Mini Normal 2191 | Endgame

[Maduisha]

I had been considering the possibility of scum!Max trying to eliminate Cabd during the day phase because he's a cop, and scum!Max wouldn't be able to afford to kill him at night and be alive the next day if the confirmed town were to call for Cabd's protection. However, I have come to the conclusion that the fact that he has been pushing me while advocating to eliminate Cabd this turn means he is most likely to be town. The reason for that is that I don't sense an agenda behind the pushes he is doing on me, even if I don't agree with the motives he has brought. If I assume Cabd is town (practically guaranteed to be true), it makes no sense for scum!Max to push me for a lined up miselimination based on an associative read, since scum!Max would already know Cabd's and my alignments, and that it wouldn't work out. As a result, the only three possible scenarios for that behavior are as follows:

- Max is scum with Cabd and they're busing (I would discard it altogether because they both claimed strong PR + they have no reason to bus in this gamestate).
- Max is scum but doesn't actually plan to push me once town!Cabd flips and this whole push is just an act to distract us from his partner.
- Max is town and his reads are genuine.

Out of those, I believe the third one makes the most sense, as it would be harder to reposition as scum if his main scumread dies + secondary scumread is unfeasible, since I believe a big part of the reason he's pushing me this hard is because I'm stubborn about not eliminating his scumread. Adding to that that scum!Max would be in a bad position being alive D3 as a doctor, I don't believe the pushes Max made during D2 are coming from scum.

That leaves me:

Fuzzy + Umlaut
Fuzzy + Samantha
Umlaut + Samantha

Out of those, I would eliminate in the order of Fuzzy>Samantha>Umlaut. But since people are not wanting to push Fuzzy with me, I think I will be lending Clidd my vote (with his consent), if we can agree to leave Cabd and Max alone. In my previous game, one of the best players said I was more useful when I was acting as a double vote for another player, and perhaps it holds true in this game too.

[samantha97]

I don't really have much else to say if it's between me/maduisha/cadb. I guess one thing I haven't is that part of the benefit of reducing vanilla is that it makes a clear target for fuzzy. Echoing what I said before, I support maduisha for mechanical reasons and cadb for meta reasons + role lie. It's not just cadb's meta, but dkkoba was really reserved compared to how they usually are. That could just be because they were nervous about being a cop, though.

oh and I have no intention of voting for myself lol

[samantha97]

oh yeah these were my little bookmark notes when reading after joining to check meta for later

dkkoba :3
clidd autobiography; declarative; conductor
maduisha: chain posting; apologetic
cabd: autobiography

idk if that helps you read me at all but ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

[clidd]

UNVOTE: Cabd

[clidd]

Max, are you there?

After a debate, I kind of agree with Umlaut to eliminate between Maduisha and Sam today.

But, again, how confident do you think you're on scum!Maduisha over scum!Sam?

[Cabd]

Eight years, today. I'm getting so old for this shit.

[maxwell]

I think voting in VTs is just punting on a hard decision because you're afraid of getting it wrong, on a day where we're allowed to get it wrong. Ultimately, in a sam-town world, where does that leave us? Cabd claims a guilty tomorrow and you're left trying to sort who is fakeclaiming PR, still. Same decision we're facing down today. At that point do people finally consider maduisha scum? I sort of doubt it. Meanwhile if we eliminate one of us today, we learn that person is town, their read on their counterpart is good, their partner has tied themselves to them enough this day phase that they can be caught.

Well, I kind of agree that it's putting off a hard decision, but it's putting it off until we have more information, not just putting it off for the sake of not having to think about it. ideally tonight either Mafia helps us choose by killing a PR or we get another actual PR result (though we do have to decide which result is actual). By eliminating a VT we accomplish this much even if we get it wrong.

Speaking for myself I will absolutely go for Maduisha scum if Sam is known to be town. Pretty sure clidd will as well. Can't speak for anyone else but it's not the insurmountable hill you're making it out to be here.

Sorry, in hindsight, I panicked a bit because I'm tunneled and I tend to get worried when people have seemingly entrenched townreads.

Max, are you there?

After a debate, I kind of agree with Umlaut to eliminate between Maduisha and Sam today.

But, again, how confident do you think you're on scum!Maduisha over scum!Sam?

On review today, I don't find Sam as towny as I did last night, and I have a hard time defending her here. I still believe there's a decent chance based on associations that Maduisha could be scum, but associations can lead down false rabbit holes, as they have for me before. I just know that scum are going to be unwilling to bus their partner today because of the mechanics and that informs my read pretty strongly.

If you guys are willing to lay out a mechanical plan for tonight, I'm okay with a vote on a VT claim today.

[maxwell]

To try to articulate the things that put me at unease: Madu questions Koba about their Chumbo read in 130, complains about being ignored in 142, explains herself again in 148, koba gives a one-line answer right after, that seems to be enough for her, interaction ends there. Later in 227 she gives a read of Koba that is "null because I still don't know how to read them but I think their posts look pretty spontanous so far", fairly noncommital. When Cabd replaces in she's critical of him not explaining his reads in 296, she simultaneously says him no talking about being in his scum meta pings her but concludes, "oh it's probably NAI". The whole thing where she's lightly critical of him but doesn't really push on him triggers my distancing alarms. She ends up switching to hard townreading him in 390 for his posts giving her "authenticity vibes", which is a fairly empty statement (what about it was authentic? Why?) and for continuing his tangent talk with clidd when she said she'd found it suspicious before, which isn't really much of a satisfying explanation, he kept doing the thing that pinged her so that's apparently town, never bothered to articulate his reads, it's like she decided to loltownbin him out of convenience.


I'm probably not going to be able to fully articulate what I didn't like about her D1, I just have something of a bad gut feeling that there was a lot of questioning toward the appearance of being productive and not a lot in the way of strong pressure, the way she voted nepenthe for seemingly contradictory reads on clidd/chumbo's entrances feels like an easy thing to try to score points on someone, the "I believe a little back and forth could help us understand each other, if you are willing to engage with me here." in 449 pings somewhat as it looks like someone trying to be "fair" with their push.


If you're not convinced, that's understandable. I'd still probably guess Maduisha before samantha but typing this out made me really not confident in it at all.

[maxwell]

Looking that back up also brought me to look at 266 from nepenthe again, which is a very "eh" read on koba, I don't like how he ultimately only concludes with "I'm wary of that slot" rather than anything concrete, 521 is a hedge where he calls cabd's claim "opportunistic" but comes down with "both could be real", he's expressing doubt but no action, don't like it either.

[maxwell]

I guess the tipping point for me is that Madu seems to be persistent in her pus of fuzzy who I'm pretty sure is town and that speaks scum agenda to me, Sam seems more open to reading the game but hasn't voted anyone other than Madu so I don't know how real it is.

I've successfully un-convinced myself. Go ahead, decide for yourselves I suppose.

[TheFuzzylogic99]

sorry for not posting. Got busy today.

Sam- I am not getting the Cabd / Clidd scumteam. Scum would have to be pretty bad to clear their scumbuddy. I am not following your logic here....

Max- woulnt putting a plan out there make it easy for the scum. Explain to me why this is the best option ...

[TheFuzzylogic99]

Off Topic

Happy scumday to you Cabd.Thanks for you for being a part of this community

[maxwell]

Having night actions planned out here increases accountability and prevents scum from claiming convenient actions after the fact.

[Cabd]

Thanks man. The well wishes are appreciated.

[clidd]

I wish you well too, Cabd.

[clidd]

Btw, Max, your final conclusion is 50/50 or just Maduisha?

[clidd]

Day 2 ends in (expired on 2021-02-06 08:12:00)
*Deadline has been extended by request*

New

:
Day 2 ends in (expired on 2021-02-06 11:08:00)

We have something like 1 more day to think.

I'll let Umlaut make a mech plan for tonight, but would appreciate suggestions.

[Umlaut]

I don't understand why you're trusting me with a mech plan when you're closer to conftown than I am (the only way you're scum is if the team is exactly you and Cabd, and that doesn't make a whole lot of sense), but okay...

Assuming Fuzzy is town, he targets within the VT claims, obviously. Probably he should target Maduisha if we're launching Sam today.

Assuming Cabd is town, he targets one of the other two strong PR claims: that is, Fuzzy or Max. It doesn't matter which, a green check on one is as good as a red check on the other. In fact it's probably best that he (privately) flip a coin to minimize predictability, in case scum have something weird like a rolestopper.

Assuming maxwell is town, he protects Cabd tonight. This is obviously correct if we succeed in launching scum today, and if not then Cabd is still the one most likely to give us a definite result.

[Cabd]

I am ALL about coinflips, hah.

[clidd]

Sounds good, Umlaut.

And you shouldn't be worried that I trust you if you're town, right?

[clidd]

Ok, I'll get some sleep now.

This game has drained a lot of energy, but I believe that we are close to a solve.

[maxwell]

Btw, Max, your final conclusion is 50/50 or just Maduisha?

I still lean toward maduisha on interaction but it's something like 70% confidence and if I'm being fully honest I worry if I'm wrong and Samantha is scum and I stand in the way of voting her today, it all comes back on me.

[samantha97]

I still lean toward maduisha on interaction but it's something like 70% confidence and if I'm being fully honest I worry if I'm wrong and Samantha is scum and I stand in the way of voting her today, it all comes back on me.

well both could be wrong, but I find I regret a lack of conviction more than being wrong after a mafia game

nothing hurts more than the one that got away

[Sirius9121]

Official Vote Count

TheFuzzylogic99

(1): Maduisha

Maduisha

(1): samantha97

samantha97

(1): Umlaut

Cabd

(1): maxwell

Not Voting

(3): TheFuzzylogic99, clidd, Cabd

With 7 alive, it takes 4 to toss.

Deadline

: (expired on 2021-02-06 11:08:00)

[maxwell]

I don't understand why you're trusting me with a mech plan when you're closer to conftown than I am (the only way you're scum is if the team is exactly you and Cabd, and that doesn't make a whole lot of sense), but okay...

Assuming Fuzzy is town, he targets within the VT claims, obviously. Probably he should target Maduisha if we're launching Sam today.

Assuming Cabd is town, he targets one of the other two strong PR claims: that is, Fuzzy or Max. It doesn't matter which, a green check on one is as good as a red check on the other. In fact it's probably best that he (privately) flip a coin to minimize predictability, in case scum have something weird like a rolestopper.

Assuming maxwell is town, he protects Cabd tonight. This is obviously correct if we succeed in launching scum today, and if not then Cabd is still the one most likely to give us a definite result.

Cabd checking in a PR claim seems un-optimal, one of me/fuzzy highly likely gets shot in this plan and then the report probably isn't all that informative because the remainng living player is a presumed counterclaim, would think him checking in umlaut/mauisha/samantha (if we mis-eliminate today) is a better choice because it would force a team