Newbie 2051: Iceland! - End!

[Prism]

I think 1916 lines up? The reasoning on floo tracks with the scum posting, which started I think when I pointed out that carefully curated posts aren't supertown, and the struggles were definitely in line with the too many TRs bit, which I think floo was a part of at one point. I can also see quiet buying into Spartan's tone in 1319, and it's not even like Spartan was

wrong

. We all just didn't want to vote the coinflip.

Understanding that quiet found it compelling but that he wasn't overall sold that they were completely scum is the missing link here, and it's not *~strongly town~* but does explain this and doesn't contradict anything other than the word "compelling", quiet had laid out the pros/cons of the floo slot pretty clearly and they weren't universal, I think the ambivalence is justified?

Like if quiet is scum I do not understand why other than "He just pretended to be town all game, gave legitimate reads the entire time, and hoped to never be PoE'd or mech solved", and that is a lot easier said than done.

[Prism]

Like literally half of my paranoia on quiet is "Why does he seem to

know

I'm town?"

Like geez, I don't know,

probably because my heart doesn't go on my sleeve but bleeds out all over the goddamn floor

[fferyllt]

Vote Count 3-7

A geyser in Haukadalur Valley was caught by the photographer at the very moment it started to erupt.

floo

(1): Prism

Not Voting

(4): flow trap, floo, Spartan117, quiet

With 5 alive, it takes 3 to eliminate.

Deadline: February 9, Midnight US Eastern Time.

Countdown: (expired on 2021-02-09 21:00:00)

Mod Notes:

-

[quiet]

Assume goal is to win today, not tmmrw.
given {floo, flow, prism, fairy, quiet, spartan}
floo+flow have to kill fairy I think, in almost any case, because living prism + fairy will push and sus one or both.
killing prism would also make sense, but they are in hot water either way.

floo+spartan kill prism with decently high frequency; someone might need to case me why killing fairy is better in this circumstance, other than doctor WIFOM and maybe tryin to frame flow trap; but frankly, I think Prism is always going after floo today, and I'm not sure how bad killing Prism frames floo vs. possibly being able to convince a flow chart vote to win. Maybe it does, and I need to think less about those NKs. All this is in the direction of trying to determine if there is a better path to victory for either team; I think I could see a prism NK as a better path to victory for floo+spartan.

With floo + Prism alive alive, floo scumteam MUST target prism for a miselim if they want to win today. It kinda seems like it will always be a 1v1 situation. Floo did come in hot and do exactly that.

But with Prism dead, that opens up a lot more options for the scumteam to try and push a miselim. Fairy needs to die to keep flow trap safe more than to keep spartan safe. But something something frame something something.

tldr: independelty think flow chart is townier than spartan rn, team logic seems to find a floo+flow chart team more scummy than floo+spartan.

possible endgames given fairy death are:
{quiet, flow, spartan}, {prism, flow, spartan}, {quiet, prism, spartan}, {quiet, prism, flow}

the three prism permutations only make sense if the last scum thinks they can pull off a miselim with a living prism. Prism will be conftown if the game doesn't end because, uh, prism has a million paths to victory today that don't involve bussing floo like this for the long game.

so in a prism alive world, spartan is trying to get a vote on me, or flow is trying to get a vote on me; or flow/spartan thinks they can get prism onsides more frequently than they can get me onsides.

in a prism dead world, which is way more likely
{quiet, flow, spartan}

great, sounds like hell, I hate it.

[Prism]

I think what makes flow trap difficult to sort is that he goes from virtually no content to going over the top. I want to know what a flow trap scum looks like, because I suspect they make these same sort of YOLO calls as scum, but the reasoning on the partners was not bad at all nor has their wall analysis.

The bad things about the slot are:
1) Not doing anything at EoD yesterday
2) The one real wall he made was defending floo, and imo it was super lackluster
3) That contradiction on why he voted quiet was bad but also...totally flow trap

Leaning me as town is cool and all but he's got complete freedom here as scum and is absolutely taking advantage of it, which is why I've pushed for him to give more conclusions.

In contrast, even if he's been able to justify them, Spartan's reads have been really,

really

off the mark. I get why he townreads floo in a vacuum now, but me/quiet have given that same level of driving content and good textured analysis. flow trap hasn't given as much, and it's unclear if it's because he's scum, because that's just his personality, or both, but what he has given has been

fine

and the question on flow trap is really just if he's sitting waiting for Spartan to misvote or waiting to push Spartan in 3 way. We've seen flow trap's town game, it does look like this, and he's put in a ton more effort this game.

Like I concur, I think Spartan is scum and it's really up to him to come through and powertown for us here, because flow trap as scum can just sit and either wait for him to misvote, or just bus floo and get Spartan in three way.

[Prism]

Since that's more to quiet:

Spartan, I understand you've been dealing with some difficulties irl, and it's really hard to do all the things at once. I really appreciate the wall on floo, and I hope you got to check out my response in 1881. I get why you think floo is town in a vacuum: But me and quiet both have done similar and way more. I think floo's day today is worth checking out and thinking about. The wall to me was AtE and the rest was very disingenuous.

I understand that you're not sold on me town at the moment, but assuming you get there, this will not be enough for us to win the game: you really need to come out swinging today. The correct way to punish flow trap sitting around waiting is to be engaged and work through things. I do not believe quiet is scum, but you run into a similar issue here: If quiet is scum, he is completely running the game atm.

Let me know what you need from me and how to help you succeed

[quiet]

Like literally half of my paranoia on quiet is "Why does he seem to know I'm town?"

Like geez, I don't know, probably because my heart doesn't go on my sleeve but bleeds out all over the goddamn floor

I appreciate the last few posts; not sure really how to respond to much of them, other than...I think you're right? But now I'm all selfconcious about not responding, so just wanted to say I read them. I think you nailed it on the "doesn't feel strongest about the mechsolve/objective solve" stuff, cause I really don't. It's something I'll carry with me into future games as something to work on, trying to objectively show my work, and to rely less on tonal reads, and try to develop more objective sorting strats.

But on this bit, yeah, that's exactly why I'm TRing you. I don't know it know it, I'm fighting off paranoia too, but uh....

sometimes you just have to go with your read. This is one of those times. I've given my reasons for my read on you repeatedly. Ironically, I think it's my most compelling case; I keep asking people to chime in on it, and very few other people have.

I mean, it's kinda redundant now, but I was REALLY hoping that people would chime in with regards to your slot early today when I was venting my own paranoia about you, or comment on my "so does everyone purport to TR Prism?" post. Neither got traction, I was hoping to have everyone else lock in their reads on you as a way to help sort.

[Prism]

in a prism dead world, which is way more likely
{quiet, flow, spartan}

great, sounds like hell, I hate it.

I pictured myself in this three way and while neither are playing badly by any means I am pretty sure this ends with me having some sort of medical emergency

[Prism]

I mean, it's kinda redundant now, but I was REALLY hoping that people would chime in with regards to your slot early today when I was venting my own paranoia about you, or comment on my "so does everyone purport to TR Prism?" post. Neither got traction, I was hoping to have everyone else lock in their reads on you as a way to help sort.

welcome to the world of dirty scum fencesitters

again flow trap townleaning me verbally is nice but given that we are a spartan vote away from losing in that world i am feeling it now mr. krabs

[quiet]

To your reads on flow trap vs. spartan, I think we are generally on the same page. I'll save comments on them for now, but they match nicely with where I'm at.

@prism sorry, last question, and I REALLY hope this isn't something you've direcyly addressed, given that I did just read your posts. From my 1928, I suggest that while:

based on play, at the moment, I lean Spartan as scum and Flow Trap as town

based on team logic, the team of floo+flow trap makes more sense with the fairy kill.

I'm sort of back and forth, up and down in regards to the kind of naked defense provided by spartan with regards to floo. There's real scum motivation to do that (save a partner), but the WAY it was done feels (sigh) too scummy to be a scum.

[quiet]

there wasn't a question there. The question was do you buy my team logic thing at all?

[Prism]

So I have touched on this a few times but yes, I 100% agree, it is extremely weird to do that over settling for something more lukewarm/in the middle.

...That said the end of Spartan's wall today left open the idea of floo being scum/potentially bussing, lmao

The other thing that bothered me was Spartan open wagonfishing about me to floo but now that floo is confirmed scum I feel like it's either genuine or an arbitrary SvS interaction

Kill definitely makes more sense for flow trap but I don't think it's awful for Spartan either, especially since they do get the "but I was pushing fairy!" argument even though floo scum would find it very difficult to get that vote through. Fairy was also going back and forth on Spartan all day, with some pretty nuanced SR reasons, whereas his flow trap push was kind of more "I'm tired of this shit"

[quiet]

Yeah my question was specifically in regards to the night kill, not the team equity with the "why not be lukewarm" bit, which I agree you've also covered.

I just wanted someone to sanity check that a spartan+floo team NK on Fairy isn't just...strictly worse than killing you.

[quiet]

I need to go re-read fairy's posts, I didn't realize they were so back and forth with spartan.

[Prism]

flow trap, do you think quiet can be scum at all?

Like my concern here is you're again kind of just hanging out. I'm in favor of you voting before quiet/Spartan primarily because it forces you to take a stance rather than be more reactive. Simultaneously, we can have both worlds, which is

literally easier for you in 3 way as town

. This would also be a shitton easier on my blood pressure if you just powertowned here.

In the grand scheme of things, what do you think is causing you trouble, and what can I do to help?

[Prism]

I am glad floo is very active in sorting, getting reads, and persuading town players to vote with him, and is ABSOLUTELY NOT just sitting around doing nothing hoping someone misvotes and trying to give as little as possible way for 3 way

[quiet]

I wonder if we can make this even more direct.
As things stand right this moment, in a {spartan, flow, quiet} endgame, I vote spartan. Right now, this is a light take. I've given my reasons in a post relatively recently; I will either pre-commit/at least show a stronger preference and post more formal cases on both before the end of the night.

given that prism = loss here, i'd like both @spartan and @flow to discount that world, and answer the following:
informally, if you had to right now vote in the final 3, in a {spartan, flow, quiet} endgame,
who do you vote for?
what makes you feel best and worse about each of the two slots that aren't you in that world?

I feel like that's a reasonable and clear ask.

[quiet]

*sorry, before I vote today, not before the end of the night. I'm willing to commit to putting that work in.

[quiet]

inb4 they both say me

[quiet]

quick note; I may be somewhat low access today, as my boss called me at midnight to sort out an issue, and it's now 8am, and I'm still not done.

2x overtime is nice though, must say.

[flow trap]

Take this with a grain of salt, but I would always want to NK Prism over Fairy if I were scum there

Also, Scum defending scum isn't used often which is why it's very effective & I wouldn't put it past Spartan

(https://www.braingle.com/games/werewolf ... 09;round=5 Jeminy (scum) is the top suspicion and Skybep (scum) defends them, then gets a TvT wagon)

[flow trap]

Take this with a grain of salt, but I would always want to NK Prism over Fairy if I were scum there

Also, Scum defending scum isn't used often which is why it's very effective & I wouldn't put it past Spartan

(https://www.braingle.com/games/werewolf ... 09;round=5 Jeminy (scum) is the top suspicion and Skybep (scum) defends them, then gets a TvT wagon)

[flow trap]

Start of Day 2 - Page 50:
Cop got NKed, which sucks a lot as it really throws off my game whenever it happens this early. I say we are in the Cop+Doctor world, but later retract it due to it being based on the mafia already knowing there was a cop in game. I still think we are in no doc world. I mildly suspect Prism/Quiet/FaC for that NK. FaC seemed new and therefore could’ve eaten the person that suspected them most. Prism’s has already been retracted previously in part 4. Quiet was because they TRed Zoomer, and as it is hard for mafia to suspect known innocents, mafia generally goes for their TRs, whether a subconscious thing or not, I have seen it multiple times. I still PRR Salsafairy (saying I PRR both NKs probably doesn’t look good for me, but whatever, it’s true; I would have NKed Salsa first anyways).

I had some mild suspicion on Flow trap (generally find them hard to read)

Cross off that bingo square. 1050-160 is some Floo+Spartan interactions, and they’re disagreeing. Also, Spartan suggests the possibility of a Prism wagon. I guess this is some information against Floo+Spartan, but not strong. I start a pair analysis, and take forever to finish because I procrastinated. Spartan asking me for possible partnerships is… funny & strange from my POV. The Spartan “Are you protecting them?” thing was kind of suspicious but more null than anything.

I could see salsa being one of those who like to purposefully put wolf tells to make them not wolf tells

I said this because someone who I play with, whenever I call them out on doing something suspicious, they keep doing it, do it more, and do it in future games. They don’t do it as much when they are mafia.

I'm trying to figure out where the narrative of scum!Spartan is coming from, because I just do not see it. Only one scum game to compare to, like, 3+ years ago in an open setup (and I can't even find the gamethread), but given how quiet this thread has been in the last few days, I don't see why scum would be popping in, trying to get things moving again. Like for a game that has 45 pages of content, we've made maybe 3? Since the night?

I don't get the two different standards being applied to myself and Spartan here. I've been trying to flog content out of Frederick, flow trap, yourself, and floo the entire day. Spartan's high effort but the defense of Enchant was deeply questionable, and he's been making vague statements about "scum on the wagon" "feels like TvS" etc. without specifying who they were the entire game.

So I'm jumping on the Salsa wagon today. Other wagons I'd consider: Prism, Floo, because I sure as hell aren't going to be able to sort them by reading them. No interest in a Fred vote today, I think enough people can eliminate that slot if my gut is wrong about that one without me. When I get a moment, I'm going to see if defensive towny vibes are a thing for Salsa generally, or if this is a deviation, because I'm still early enough in my mafia career to enjoy meta.

You had no problem calling me town Day 1. One of the things that most bothered me about your slot was that 793 was spot on. My intuition was that you had the assistance of knowing my alignment. It annoyed me to think that I could be read off of a single post but in this case it's true-in no world do I step in to rein in flow trap there, and my meta establishes this extremely well. I can backlink you later if you want but the only time I did similar as scum was my first game onsite, and I lost for it. Realizing this was unfair and that I needed to set my pride aside was a big part of why I backed off today.

I like this post from Prism because it shows that they are questioning Quiet still. This makes me feel better about it not being Prism+Quiet. My vote on Prism was a Noco vote (vote on TR). Sorry for being vague here, I only had a gut feeling.

Salsa, I suspect quite, what do you think of that?

VOTE: Quiet

This is where I start to turn away from the idea that Salsafairy is PR, and instead just scum. My first thought was Salsafairy+Quiet, so I decided to see if SF would react in a dismissive way to a Quiet accusation.

I'm trying to quote another game but I can't figure out how to (the server says something like "Forum is locked"), so I'll just post links to relevant posts from other games Sal has played. Newbie 2035 has no relevant posts to the current discussion, and Newbie 2042 is ongoing (I did not read that). Because the entire length of each one of these completed games is shorter than our Day One and Sal has mostly stayed under the radar as town, I have found only one relevant example.

Newbie 2039
viewtopic.php?p=12298058#p12298058
viewtopic.php?p=12299804#p12299804
In this game we see Salsabil responding to a bad accusation (I agree that triple posting is a bad reason for a scumread). She asks the accuser to substantiate their vote and, when the reason is stated, calls it out as a "crappy reason" and asks them to argue rationally. All while including elements of mocking/dismissiveness/flippantness (whatever you want to call it) mixed into her language. Big difference from this game.

Drawing a somewhat solid conclusion from 1 example is something I do frequently as scum. Post 1160 by quiet kind of solidifies the theory that it’s just their personality, so minus negative points there.

I've always seen being diplomatic as a scum tell

I have very, very bad news for you about me as a player lmao

In general I don't think this tell is the worst-particularly if the person is overdoing it or not taking any real stances-but becoming more diplomatic and communicate effectively with others is literally

my entire purpose for playing the game of mafia.

I don't enjoy the puzzle or solving aspect at all.

I just want to say I believe that, 10 points for Prism.

In 1058, as I explained, I didn't take the time to form a read on Prism. There were some scummy posts I saw from Sal that caught my attention more.

I find this scummy now, they had plenty of time to format everything, they chose to do that instead of reading Prism. I’m starting to think this isn’t just town that doesn't want to be scummy.

Spartan117

, hope you don't forget about my 1080 post.

Spartan doesn’t respond to this, which is interesting since they’ve been on me for not sharing my “why” the whole game. I don't think they would have missed it since Salsafairy brought it up twice. Thinking of Prism’s style of play, I think I can actually get the early SR on floo. Floo did seem to be causing discord, which is something Prism said they like to do when they are scum. It is definitely consistent with what they were saying, town points for Prism. I’m pretty sure Spartan says Floo is their strongest TR after Prism SRs Floo, correct me on that if I’m wrong & I don’t know what Orange’s logic was, and that’s the start of day 2.

[Spartan117]

@spartian, this post def. helped me understand your perspective on floo a lot better. I think we agree on the sentiment analysis side; floo's posts (contentwise), with the exception of their posts today (which oh god, take a look at when you wake up, are very much NOT the floo i've come to know and love and possibly want to eliminate from this town) come across as considered, genuine, game solving, and high effort.

Yes I agree I found the way they acted day 1 very townie day 2 looked decent too and i had felt happy with how i had sorted them, not too sure by their activity today tbh they havent really fought their own corner for themselves let alone try and continue any scumhunting I felt the reflection on the lynch and nk flips was minimal too, it seems like we are in a prism v floo world like has been mentioned so from my pov I think there are only 3 scum teams that make sense?
flow trap/floo
prism/quiet
flow trap/prism

I guess it could also be possible for a quiet/floo scum team but im not so sure about that one.

I really, really liked floo day1. I was against eliminating floo yesterday, for basically the same reason you have pulled out in that review of their play; their posts throughout the game give almost every appearance of being from someone who wanted to solve the game, and I was really hoping I'd see something today to help support that feeling.

my perspective from the end of yesterday was as follows, i had strongly scumread fredrick for his lack of play d1 and with that not changing d2 i felt confident on that read, and my position there, because of the enchant situation d1 my vote didnt result in anything d1 and i didnt want people to gang up on floo d2 someone who like i explained i town read because of how i felt from the perspectives they gave, and then end up with him lynched and if he flipped town and i had been on the fredrick wagon it would seem like i was just trying to push lightly under the radar.
So for both; wanting to see the flip of my main scum read and not let another slot that i read as town get voted off i made it clear i didnt want him to get killed d2, looking back with the flips with fredrick flipping town obviously its a shame and tbh to me its quite annoying and frustrating as I felt like my reads were justified but if we had lynched floo d2 and had fredrick d3 I don't know if i would have been able to do anything other than look at him, although given floos content d3 its not matched up with what they presented d1/2 so I'm hoping to see more from them.

[quiet]

@spartian what did you think about the second half of that post, which goes into why I ultimately fall on the prism town, floo scum side?

Are you relatively sold on a flooScum world at this point? Or are you still deciding between the two?

Assume that floo flips scum, and Prism gets shot tonight as conftown. Final 3 are {quiet, spartian, flow}. From the above, you would be voting flow, as you think a flow trap/floo world is more likely than a quiet/floo world?

Sorry for the direct questions, I'm just trying to lock down where your reads are at.