Open 806: JK9++ (Game Over!)

[Isis]

skitter why haven't you posted about not_mafia?

[Bridgeburners]

We have discussed this at some length in our PT and we believe rather strongly that if there is a vig then they should shoot NM tonight, and if there isn’t, and we die, then it’s probably overall worth it to burn a policy elim on NM tomorrow

-QB

This prompted me to check the setup to see if you were being a baddie because scum protectives

finding 1: there is a scum protective

finding 2: wtf I should not have signed up for this game

Oh, I forgot the bus driver

I’m not sure what the odds of that actually are though, because while it’s only 2 setups out of 8, the most likely setups to roll are 3PR or 4PR which are the two setups without bus driver

So given that I’m not sure what the odds actually are

If we can’t guarantee that the vig (if there is one) should be shooting NM then there probably is a case for doing NM today

Skitter and I will talk more in PT

-QB

[PenguinPower]

What’s the case for nm? Seems really lazy.

[Bridgeburners]

The case is the slot is never going to improve and if scum needs to be elimmed (which will never be easier because there will never be content) and if town and allowed to just continue to coast by while everyone pursued their own hot button scumreads, will be allowed to make it to lylo and is a game losing slot there if town

-QB

[PenguinPower]

So - elim because it’s nm regardless of actual? It’s lazy.

Don’t support for today.

[Bridgeburners]

Why is it wrong?

-QB

[Bridgeburners]

Like, what’s your proposal for dealing with that slot then? I don’t really care if it’s “lazy” or not if it’s good play

If it needs to be done, what is the point in waiting?

-QB

[PenguinPower]

Because it’s d1 and you don’t know what’s going to go down.

I don’t see myself making this same statement tomorrow.

[Bridgeburners]

I don’t think that changes things massively? Like yes we have a vig... but the best objective vig shot is (if not before my post last page then certainly be now) obviously N_M, which means there’s a real risk in a vig shooting there just giving scum a double kill.

If the slot is still alive tomorrow, I think it’s more likely to be harder and not less hard to elim it because after one missed elim I think people start to feel the pressure more (especially when as a worse case scenario it could be the day before lylo or mylo tomorrow) to try and elim scum rather than removing ambiguity and making it less of a coin flip for the final day

Like the problem is the slot is not gonna be resolvable by anything other than a flip in this setup, and the closer it gets to lylo the less will there will be to do that, and the less will there is the greater the risk of losing the game because N_M was allowed to go to lylo instead of being policy limmed as he should have been

-QB

[PenguinPower]

An nm elim d1 is basically a n0 start and I don’t support it.

I also don’t care to fight it beyond what I’ve said, but I think we can do better.

[Bridgeburners]

I’m not planning to obsessively tunnel this, and skitter, I know, wants to let it play out a bit longer

But I think there are significant risks to not just limming the slot while that’s within our power

I guess I figure the following scenarios:

(1) N_M flip where N_M!scum — average result, basically fine but not outstanding

(2) N_M flip where N_M!town — frustrating and means essentially playing with a handicap, but that hand was dealt when N_M signed up and decided not to play, but reduces variance in lategame stages

(3) other flip where other!scum — the best possible outcome, maybe N_M gets vigged at night or if not then can be policy elimmed and that info added to the scumflip D1

(4) other flip where other!town — worst possible outcome imo, you still have the liability slot around, you have no particularly revealing info from a scumflip, and it’s likely players become more entrenched about flipping scum rather than coming together successfully for a policy elim (esp if scum resist the elim, which they might if they want to conserve the slot for lylo)

-QB

[Bridgeburners]

If I felt like ~really good~ about another slot flipping scum, I probably would want that the most to go for “best possible scenario”. But I don’t have that certainty atm, and I don’t think skitt has anyone she’s like ~super confident~ will be flipping scum either, which makes me wanna go for the “reduce variance” play

-QB

[PenguinPower]

(5) Where nm flips town PR and we’re in a worse spot?

Nm has shown a recent proclivity to actually play so i think your (2) has the potential to be wrong, and I also thing your (4) is just wrong in the latter half given most slots in this game have contributed things to look back on.

[PenguinPower]

That’s my energy limit on NM so....yeah, there that is.

[Bridgeburners]

I feel like in the games where N_M has done anything he’s been that way from fairly early on and I don’t have any faith in him to improve from where he’s at now. Is it theoretically possible? Sure. Might I also see a pig that’s been genetically engineered to have wings cruising past my window tomorrow morning? Also theoretically possible!

If NM is PR that would still require him using the PR usefully and not trolling. Like I think if NM vig and doesn’t get elimmed today the game was probably just lost at rand *shrug*

So I don’t think (2) is wrong

I guess you have something of a point about (4) but not beyond the generic “any flip gives info” nature of it. Which is true, but I do think scumslots flipping tend to bust the game open in a way townflips rarely do, beyond forcing reconsideration of the gamestate if it’s a slot that was universally scumread that turns out to be a townie.

Like I also can’t be bothered to bicker of it, and while I wait for the better half of this hydra to get back with her thoughts we’re staying on Ben and that’s our official line on where we want to go

I’m just noting on a personal level that I think there is also a good and strong case for simply elimming N_M today, and removing the headache for future days

-QB

[Isis]

I've also experienced N_M's effort level tending to be static game to game, although he inches up occasionally

[PenguinPower]

It’s apparent that this is coming from a personal level, so I would like to hear from skitteR.

[Bridgeburners]

That’s fine, I’ve said my piece on the topic and she’ll be around when she can be

-QB

[Scipio1]

What do you make of 3/4 of your bottom reads being tied as the top wagons right now?

Doesn't exactly help my confidence lol. But everyone else still seems townier imo.

[Scipio1]

Also I'm not really a fan of elimming N_M today either. If he flips town then we gain literally nothing from it, and with the current gamestate, I think we need a useful flip.

Vigging him if there is one is ok, though.

[Bridgeburners]

skitter why haven't you posted about not_mafia?

idk, what are you expecting me to say about nm?
~ skitter

[PenguinPower]

I just want to hear that you agree with mena.

[Bridgeburners]

If NM is PR that would still require him using the PR usefully and not trolling.

tbf i don't think he takes troll pr shots

~ skitter

[Bridgeburners]

I just want to hear that you agree with mena.

we're still like bickering abt it (tm) in the hydra pt but i feel fairly similarly to you - feels like a bit of a waste of day

~ skitteR

[PenguinPower]

That’s understandable. I don’t want to encourage hydra dissonance in game, so I can wait.