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Post Post #3550 (ISO) » Wed Feb 10, 2021 4:31 pm

Post by Mistyx »

im putting this in a spreadsheet to visualize it

gimme a bit
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Post Post #3551 (ISO) » Wed Feb 10, 2021 4:34 pm

Post by Akarin »

So like Nancy and Ico were the obvious NK targets last night, right? Ram as a possibility if they thought he was hinting at a cop inno on me?

Assuming they didn't see that, do they use 1-shot strongman on N2? TSQ would be an okay shot if he's town.

They've already seen a doctor JOAT flip.

Like last night, I was thinking "hey, as much as it sucks both JOATS died, at least I don't have to risk getting tracked to a vig kill anymore."

Unless they targeted town!FL with something on N1...? Otherwise why would they strongman?
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Post Post #3552 (ISO) » Wed Feb 10, 2021 4:36 pm

Post by Mistyx »

okay so

I think there's one scum in the VT claims

and the other scum is either FL or pine

doing a setup comparison, there were 4 VTs last year and the setup seems to be designed to be somewhat similar - both games have 1-shot vigs and neighborizers but with different modifiers

pine's JK lines up with klick's doc, zor's JOAT lines up with mine - these are both pretty direct

i think molla's JOAT lines up best with hito's talisman granter though not particularly well

which makes the odd claims out mine and FL's
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Post Post #3553 (ISO) » Wed Feb 10, 2021 4:37 pm

Post by Flavor Leaf »

yeah, if a no kill happened same night as Akarin's vig going through, a follow on akarin would be a hard guilty
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Post Post #3554 (ISO) » Wed Feb 10, 2021 4:38 pm

Post by Mistyx »

if you line FL's claim up with last year's doc instead pine can line up with the 2-shot alien which makes sense

the vengeful doesn't really line up with anything but is probably indicative of the other town power roles being lower power than they were last year

which is why I think there's a fake in the claims
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Post Post #3555 (ISO) » Wed Feb 10, 2021 4:41 pm

Post by Akarin »

1-shot Loyal Neighborizer is basically a 1-shot cop, that's a LOT better than a 1-shot Neighborizer
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Post Post #3556 (ISO) » Wed Feb 10, 2021 4:42 pm

Post by Mistyx »

alien = jk, jk stronger due to ungated
1-shot vig = novice 1-shot vig, ~equal power - novice is not that notable of a modifier
1-shot loyal neighborizer = 1-shot neighborizer, loyal much stronger
mist's joat = zor's joat, mist's stronger
talisman joat = molla's joat???, molla stronger
doc = fl joat?, fl slightly stronger???

idk
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Post Post #3557 (ISO) » Wed Feb 10, 2021 4:42 pm

Post by Akarin »

In post 3553, Flavor Leaf wrote:yeah, if a no kill happened same night as Akarin's vig going through, a follow on akarin would be a hard guilty
Yeah, there's a lot of anti-synergy here. I kind of want both you and Pine to be scum given Misty's claim, but Town just seems too weak in that case?

Unless scum are really weak actually?
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Post Post #3558 (ISO) » Wed Feb 10, 2021 4:43 pm

Post by Mistyx »

In post 3555, Akarin wrote:1-shot Loyal Neighborizer is basically a 1-shot cop, that's a LOT better than a 1-shot Neighborizer
yeah i think that's the only major hit in power though

follower is probably better than voyeur but i wouldn't say by a substantial amount

and i think pine's JK and molla's JOAT make up for it, compared to the alien and talisman JOAT
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Post Post #3559 (ISO) » Wed Feb 10, 2021 4:43 pm

Post by Mistyx »

i think pine's claim makes a lot of sense compared to last year
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Post Post #3560 (ISO) » Wed Feb 10, 2021 4:45 pm

Post by Mistyx »

i think FL's claim is just the odd one out

norwee/nancy/ram/shea are all claimed VTs, right?
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Post Post #3561 (ISO) » Wed Feb 10, 2021 4:45 pm

Post by Akarin »

Maybe this is tinfoil, but what if scum are actually weaker here and chose claims to line up to the power level of last year.

Can't shake that thought.
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Post Post #3562 (ISO) » Wed Feb 10, 2021 4:45 pm

Post by Akarin »

In post 3560, Mistyx wrote:norwee/nancy/ram/shea are all claimed VTs, right?
Yeah.
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Post Post #3563 (ISO) » Wed Feb 10, 2021 4:46 pm

Post by Mistyx »

In post 3561, Akarin wrote:Maybe this is tinfoil, but what if scum are actually weaker here and chose claims to line up to the power level of last year.

Can't shake that thought.
i doubt it

there's a pretty direct trend in the flipped roles between zor/tgp/you
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Post Post #3564 (ISO) » Wed Feb 10, 2021 4:48 pm

Post by Mistyx »

i could buy scum being weaker especially if i'm right and there's scum outside of the VT claims

the notable tradeoffs here are loyal neighborizer for neighborizer and doc for vengeful and maybe a joat with doc
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Post Post #3565 (ISO) » Wed Feb 10, 2021 5:04 pm

Post by Flavor Leaf »

I mean, just venge me if we're gonna do it that way. The setup doesnt have to be parallel to the last game, i would actively expect it not to be? But i guess i have bias since I know it's different
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Post Post #3566 (ISO) » Wed Feb 10, 2021 5:07 pm

Post by Mistyx »

In post 3565, Flavor Leaf wrote:i would actively expect it not to be
same but thats not what the provided evidence suggests
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Post Post #3567 (ISO) » Wed Feb 10, 2021 5:15 pm

Post by Thestatusquo »

I don't understand why we think that this setup would be based on last years? That seems like a very shitty way to design a setup and I would never do it as a mod, so I don't know why that's the first place we're going here.
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Post Post #3568 (ISO) » Wed Feb 10, 2021 5:38 pm

Post by Mistyx »

In post 3567, Thestatusquo wrote:I don't understand why we think that this setup would be based on last years? That seems like a very shitty way to design a setup and I would never do it as a mod, so I don't know why that's the first place we're going here.
because multiple of the flipped roles blatantly line up with last year's
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Post Post #3569 (ISO) » Wed Feb 10, 2021 5:39 pm

Post by Mistyx »

i made a spreadsheet for this i can assure you i know what i'm talking about

...i think
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Post Post #3570 (ISO) » Wed Feb 10, 2021 6:35 pm

Post by Flavor Leaf »

i guess im biased against it because i know it's not the case
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Post Post #3571 (ISO) » Wed Feb 10, 2021 7:58 pm

Post by Ramcius »

In post 3488, Flavor Leaf wrote:hmm...

ramcius, what do you think? Can Norwegian and Pine both be town?
Norwee feels like biased townie that's easy to miselim, but Creature thinks he's scum team with TSQ, I can see that, Pine I dunno, a lot of stuff makes sense, claim is strange

Also Creature says that Mistyx is bad elim today, 4v2 is better and I agree, 2/5 is better odds than 2/7 to hit scum. Also he says that it's bad kill for scum too, so doc there is bad idea

@Nancy, Creature said Heroes game. Also it wasn't 180, I don't think I said you are my TR, on top of that, I was hard sr you in LNT, our only game, so why me not seeing as obv town surprises you, when I ignored everyone calling you obv town in that game?

VOTE: TSQ

I just don't like how he fell of the picture after D1, also fencesitting on me D2 don't sit well with me "Ram is towny now, but shade..."
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Post Post #3572 (ISO) » Wed Feb 10, 2021 8:30 pm

Post by Thestatusquo »

You're joking right? I made a huge case yesterday and pushed the crap out of it while making like 3 or 4 different ISO dives. What in the hell.
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Post Post #3573 (ISO) » Wed Feb 10, 2021 8:31 pm

Post by Thestatusquo »

I wasn't fence sitty on you I actively defended you when you were being voted. If I'm scum trying to fade you there I could have easily done so by adding to the momentum instead of actively arguing against it.
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Post Post #3574 (ISO) » Wed Feb 10, 2021 9:31 pm

Post by Ramcius »

In post 3572, Thestatusquo wrote:You're joking right? I made a huge case yesterday and pushed the crap out of it while making like 3 or 4 different ISO dives. What in the hell.
You mean meta case on Akarin that you held onto despite Nancy telling you're wrong and Akarin obvtowning? Yes, I said that you called me towny, but also you brought up "shade" from D1 at the same time. Also, why you so concerned about my vote and not about anything I said regarding to Mystix matters
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