Open 806: JK9++ (Game Over!)

[PenguinPower]

sure VOTE: Implosion

really hate the S_S wagon rn so idk, i'd rather see where this goes

- hYdra

[seCret hYdra]

Not voting (5) - seCret hYdra, AaronFrost, Petapan, Something_Smart, Shirou

do something.

thx.

the other head is coincidentially in a V/LA that matches ico's weekend V/LA but yeah he has showed to be cool with a vote there before

- hYdra
sure VOTE: Implosion

really hate the S_S wagon rn so idk, i'd rather see where this goes

- hYdra

does Ico approve of this vote?

Did you discuss this with Ico?

[seCret hYdra]

Not voting (5) - seCret hYdra, AaronFrost, Petapan, Something_Smart, Shirou

do something.

thx.

sure VOTE: Implosion

really hate the S_S wagon rn so idk, i'd rather see where this goes

- hYdra

does Ico approve of this vote?

Did you discuss this with Ico?

the other head is coincidentially in a V/LA that matches ico's weekend V/LA but yeah he has showed to be cool with a vote there before

- hYdra

(messed up the formatting)

[implosion]

I'm coming around on Aaron being a scum candidate with him unvoting 3 days ago for the claim and never voting anyone else. Obviously having been there I understand not having any scumreads you feel good about but I think it's gone on a bit long, and like I said I think doing things/committing to things (I guess I said the former but probably moreso the latter) recently is a townish thing to do, and he's been not doing that.

Feels kind of like he's recently been talking about the claim/things anciliary to the claim to avoid really committing to any reads.

[implosion]

Right now I'm very roughly at...

petapan > Penguin ~ Datisi

Schiavetto > Isis ~ Infinity

Shirou ~ Bridgeburners

Sechyd

N_M, Aaron

S_S

Lots of potential volatility based on my mood in the Isis-Sechyd range. Aaron is at a "need to do work to re-evaluate" stage.

[Bridgeburners]

I logged in mafiascum.net with coffee on hand to look at the game and Mena isn't OMGUS'ing me, neither said much of anything to me at all

There’s like, not a lot to say? Skitt has been busy the last couple of days and so at a minimum I wanna discuss it with her, but we were reasonably happy with notsci!town + I haven’t actually read you since the day you arrived so I don’t know if your vote on us was bad faith/meme/made sense for how you were seeing the game

Hm

I think scum would want to elim me/skitt

If you're town I would agree with this to an extent, but I want you to think about this game so far/how slots treated you and think whether from your PoV scum is trying to eliminate you on dayphase in a world where Isis is town.

we think scum were probably trying to play around us or pocket us in the early day but we're not sure exactly where that leads

I actually uh, forgot about that but your comment reminded me

I think quite strongly that isis is SK, but I'm not sure if skitt agrees, but I think that explains her play from a "doesn't really make sense as scum, but also broadly inexplicable and p lazy if town" pov

-QB

[implosion]

Not voting (5) - seCret hYdra, AaronFrost, Petapan, Something_Smart, Shirou

do something.

thx.

sure VOTE: Implosion

really hate the S_S wagon rn so idk, i'd rather see where this goes

- hYdra

This feels like the worst vote on me so far. Feels very "I want to wagon but I don't want blame if things go wrong". I think SecHyd-town should have plenty of reason to vote me anyway (I'm in their PoE, they've not said anything positive about me recently the only possible exception being that skit's case didn't convince them, etc) so I feel like town-SecHyd shouldn't need to say "i'm voting this bc I don't like the other wagon". They should just like this one.

Might be griping.

[implosion]

Also a little weird that they needed to be prodded to do so, it should have made sense for them to join my wagon a while ago if that's what's up?

[Bridgeburners]

the gamestate feels v flaccid, and I sort of agree that there's prob scum in the wagons being competed over which I think scum are maybe trying to stall out? I think possibly more than 1 scum (like is there any reason why 2 of S_S/Aaron/implo couldn't be partnered?) where scum feel that trying to hard shift the wagon gives too many associatives, and they're maybe counting on the "oh, I guess X was the scum in X, Y, Z, therefore Y and Z are town and we can look elsewhere" argument

-QB

[Bridgeburners]

oh, also N_M being scum makes a lot of sense in any world where 2/3 of the current wagons are scum

-QB

[Shirou]

I think quite strongly that isis is SK, but I'm not sure if skitt agrees, but I think that explains her play from a "doesn't really make sense as scum, but also broadly inexplicable and p lazy if town" pov

my read on Isis was that she is considering who is scum in the game but I guess if we consider a SK (which honestly we probably should wait for N1 first before those kind of speculations), Isis theoretically could be it.

I don't think we SK hunt before at least 2 scum are eliminated though in any scenario. a SK elimination early is accidental not intentional.

[implosion]

this all sounds generally cohesive with my worldview

pedit: @menalque

[Bridgeburners]

I'm not really interested in SK hunting, but there's a 50/50 chance we have one and isis is the person who's play makes the least sense to me as coming from either main alignment. like if there was guaranteed no SK I would probably town bin it, but as it stands that just makes sense to me

I agree that finding and eliminating the SK is prob not priority, I also think there's a ~reasonable~ chance that SK would no-kill for a night or two

-QB

[Bridgeburners]

this all sounds generally cohesive with my worldview

pedit: @menalque

if we hit scum today, I think that if we have a vig they should actually not shoot N_M (make it harder for scum to predict where to bus drive for an extra kill if they have one) but just shoot their top SR or someone else who's generally a scummy null slot, and we use the fact that we didn't burn a miselim today to kill N_M tomorrow

-QB

[implosion]

Hunting for SK behavior in 13 players when there is on average 0.5 of an SK is like hunting for exact scumteams based on associatives on day one in a 9p mini. Actually they're like, very close in prior probability. It's just not really worth thinking about, the prior probability that you're right is so low that the sort of burden you'd need to meet to actually have meaningful evidence is enormous from a Bayseian statistics standpoint.

[Bridgeburners]

I am probably spiralling a little bit too far in my mind tho

-QB

[implosion]

If there's a vig they should act at least a little unpredictably for sure. That doesn't necessarily mean just not-shooting N_M if they want to. Scum bus driver if it exists is 1-shot, so they could just holster in which case shooting suboptimally would be worse.

[Bridgeburners]

I wouldn't say I'm hunting for SK behaviour in the first place? the point is more -> looking for scum behaviour -> isis making very weird moves -> is isis scum? -> discuss with skitt in pt -> okay, isis prob not scum bc what would she be trying to achieve -> isis continues to just have bizarre takes that don't relate to the game as far as I see it -> this doesn't seem like town behaviour? but also she's not scum? what's going on? -> remember there's a possible 3rd party role that fits this not!scum not!town behaviour pattern

-QB

[Bridgeburners]

If there's a vig they should act at least a little unpredictably for sure. That doesn't necessarily mean just not-shooting N_M if they want to. Scum bus driver if it exists is 1-shot, so they could just holster in which case shooting suboptimally would be worse.

what's suboptimal about a vig shooting a nully-scum slot or just their top SR?

-QB

[Infinity 324]

I think quite strongly that isis is SK, but I'm not sure if skitt agrees, but I think that explains her play from a "doesn't really make sense as scum, but also broadly inexplicable and p lazy if town" pov

What implo said, also I think drawing attention to yourself in the way isis did early on is even worse if you're an SK compared to groupscum

[Bridgeburners]

I don't really care enough to get into it but I think isis is a strong enough player to know that attention early is not necessarily a bad thing if it fades by the time serious wagons are going

-QB

[Something_Smart]

why don't you just say that instead of trying to jusitfy by a game that kinda corresponds but doesn't quite fit?

I guess I phrased it badly. What I should have said was, "I think as scum I would be more likely to judge my situation irreparable and give up."

[implosion]

I wouldn't say I'm hunting for SK behaviour in the first place? the point is more -> looking for scum behaviour -> isis making very weird moves -> is isis scum? -> discuss with skitt in pt -> okay, isis prob not scum bc what would she be trying to achieve -> isis continues to just have bizarre takes that don't relate to the game as far as I see it -> this doesn't seem like town behaviour? but also she's not scum? what's going on? -> remember there's a possible 3rd party role that fits this not!scum not!town behaviour pattern

-QB

Yeah it's not like, a problem or anything.

Basically in a future where we're at low player count and Isis is still alive and we need to hunt for an SK we can look back at this but right now it just doesn't affect my perception of anything.

If there's a vig they should act at least a little unpredictably for sure. That doesn't necessarily mean just not-shooting N_M if they want to. Scum bus driver if it exists is 1-shot, so they could just holster in which case shooting suboptimally would be worse.

what's suboptimal about a vig shooting a nully-scum slot or just their top SR?

-QB

It's suboptimal in the strict sense of the word if the theoretical vig, or our town as a whole, thinks N_M is the optimal shot.

Basically just saying, the best thing to do will always be a mixed strategy of some kind if we're worried about interference by a bus driver.

It's not the most important thing by any means.

[Shirou]

I think we're going on a bit too much about SK here to be fair. We probably should change topic for now.

[implosion]

Great. New topic:

Not voting (5) - seCret hYdra, AaronFrost, Petapan, Something_Smart, Shirou

do something.

thx.