Mini Normal 2185 | EFoBBBiO | Game Over!

joqiza · Post Post #1359 (isolation #1) » Fri Jan 08, 2021 2:29 pm

Um. Quick question...

Do we actually know how many scum there are? I'm assuming 4?

I can't find the info anywhere and I'm not sure how setups get balanced on this site. Might as well townslip while I'm figuring it out.

joqiza · Post Post #1361 (isolation #2) » Fri Jan 08, 2021 2:37 pm

Yooo I'm looking at these past Mini Normals and I'm seeing a lot of 3-scum teams. Is that de facto? We could have 3 ML's? Seems kind of wack ngl (I'm not complaining I'm just used to 2 ML or 1 ML setups).

joqiza · Post Post #1362 (isolation #3) » Fri Jan 08, 2021 2:50 pm

Okay well based on a quick skim of the past 8 or so completed Mini N's it looks like 3 scum is the default, and scum don't usually get any other kind of killing power thing so I'm going to be going off the working assumptions of:
- 3 scum
- 3 ML's (I would consider a town killing role using their shot as one of those ML's)

If these are dangerous assumptions to make please correct me. The balance seems very different from my home site EpicMafia tbh, I've only played one 13p before on there and it had 3 scum but the scum had a couple roles that could double-kill so we only had 2 ML's in the end. 3 ML's is kind of based.

Starting my rr right... now. Will update you all on my thoughts soon.

Great to be here playing w/ you all! I'm excited!!!! First ever Mini Normal I've played on this site!!!! HYPE!!!

joqiza · Post Post #1363 (isolation #4) » Fri Jan 08, 2021 3:12 pm

In post 91, Gamma Emerald wrote:whilst dubious

joqiza · Post Post #1369 (isolation #5) » Fri Jan 08, 2021 4:09 pm

Trendall, I saw you mentioned you like playing on EpicMafia. You should consider joining one of our EM forum games if you're ever around :3

joqiza · Post Post #1375 (isolation #6) » Fri Jan 08, 2021 5:25 pm

Reading this game has made me realize how deeply reliant I've become on meta. I play in a pretty insular community where I generally know around ~90% of people at the table... when you don't know anyone in the p-list, gauging players is a bit more difficult. Refreshing, though, in a way.

Not quite done catching up, but should have time to do so over the weekend.

joqiza · Post Post #1435 (isolation #7) » Tue Jan 12, 2021 2:02 pm

Okay. My understanding of the game state in terms of claims after reading through:

- Bugspray claimed Town Back-up Neighbor
- Bugspray is now in the neighborhood (once Amélie died)
- There's at least one other person in the neighborhood (is it ejjnami / the Trendall slot? Based on the most recent posts)
- I saw a post where Bugspray mentioned there's an investigative in the hood that claimed a green check on my slot?

Just want to make sure I am on the same page in terms of mechs here. Not asking anyone else to claim, just like... want to make sure there's nothing else I need to know / make sure I'm operating with the same information as everyone else. A bit confusing on the readthrough since there's a fair amount of content.

joqiza · Post Post #1437 (isolation #8) » Tue Jan 12, 2021 2:13 pm

Okay, thx.

Going to go back and read the game again from the top. I kinda skimmed the first time to just get the main idea and my thoughts on everyone are all like, half-formed at the moment.

In general I probably will try to weight social reads over mechanics. I don't feel eminently comfortable doing setup spec on this site, I know basically nothing about Mafiascum Normal Game Review, we don't have that kind of thing on EpicMafia. We just throw whatever roles in we want and let it ride. That said, I've played one forum game on EM that had a town traffic analyst, and that game also had a mafia neighborizer. It wouldn't really surprise me if there was a mafia in the hood, though I wouldn't feel comfortable assuming that as a starting point.

joqiza · Post Post #1456 (isolation #9) » Tue Jan 12, 2021 3:09 pm

Please don't talk in the hood unless there's like PR-related information you want to conceal or some kind of play you need to make that requires not informing the thread. Otherwise please discuss stuff here because the game's going to get really confusing if you two are forming reads on each other via posts we can't observe.

joqiza · Post Post #1461 (isolation #10) » Tue Jan 12, 2021 3:18 pm

If the neighborhood is all-town, then what we're witnessing is a TvT that we can't resolve because we can't even understand the situation.

joqiza · Post Post #1462 (isolation #11) » Tue Jan 12, 2021 3:21 pm

In post 1459, Lunar Martian wrote:Strongly disagree. That totally negates this potentially really useful tool for sharing information privately and using another avenue to coordinate or sort people. Is joqiza Mafia indicating that the hood is all-Town? Maybe.

You're free to disagree, but my philosophy is simply that you should share your thoughts in thread. I can't evaluate a progression that I can't see. And immediately suggesting I have TMI seems reactive.

joqiza · Post Post #1465 (isolation #12) » Tue Jan 12, 2021 3:34 pm

Maybe I'm just jaded, but I don't really have good experiences with hoods. I've seen them used by mafia to pocket towns, and when they're pure I've seen them devolve into TvT fights that make the game unpleasant and difficult to solve because no one's really sure what's going on. I haven't read the game closely enough to have an opinion as to what the composition of the hood is rn, but I can tell immediately I don't like this situation where people are accusing one another of stuff I can't see and I'm asked to pick one side or another.

joqiza · Post Post #1468 (isolation #13) » Tue Jan 12, 2021 3:38 pm

Without revealing any sensitive PR or mech information, @ejjnami, can you explain what bugspray is talking about in 1450?

joqiza · Post Post #1476 (isolation #14) » Tue Jan 12, 2021 4:08 pm

Personally I thought ejjinami's confusion about the gamestate read fairly genuine and I have a slight OGI bias towards the slot due to 1358 and 1360. Nothing definitive but those were the pages I saw develop in real-time once I'd subbed in, so they're at the top of my mind. I'll look at Trendall's early game tonight I guess.

joqiza · Post Post #1482 (isolation #15) » Tue Jan 12, 2021 4:23 pm

Thanks, @ejjinami, 1478 made things clearer. We'll see what bugspray has to say when they get back.

joqiza · Post Post #1487 (isolation #16) » Tue Jan 12, 2021 4:28 pm

In post 1483, bugspray wrote:can there be third parties in 13p normals

I don't think so.

"The game should have at least one Mafia or Werewolf group (of at least two members). In mini games (at most 13 players), there must be exactly one such group, with no third parties. In large games (at least 14 players), a second anti-town group can be given a separate Mafia family name, or can be a Werewolf group, and there should be no more than two mafia/werewolf factions, and no more than one Serial Killer."

From: https://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=Normal_Game

joqiza · Post Post #1505 (isolation #17) » Tue Jan 12, 2021 5:07 pm

Bugspray can you explain what you mean when you say ejjinami's posts are "wack?" I understand there was some mech. confusion in the hood, does 1478 clear things up for you?

joqiza · Post Post #1534 (isolation #18) » Wed Jan 13, 2021 7:37 am

Like I said, not the most comfortable when it comes to setup spec on this site. With that mind, having a mafia traitor and a town traffic analyst in the same setup seems a bit bastard, because the TA could mis-clear the traitor, if I'm understanding the mechanics correctly. If I were hosting a closed game on my home site and included those two roles, I'd want to make sure to inform a townie of the presence of a traitor.

joqiza · Post Post #1535 (isolation #19) » Wed Jan 13, 2021 7:40 am

I suppose if it's commonly assumed meta that a traffic analyst in a setup implies a traitor, then maybe it's fine. I guess the closest comparison is having a town tracker and then having one of the mafia roles be ninja. I don't know, seems questionable to me, and I'd hesitate to do that as a mod. No one wants to lose because they assumed a report was correct and it just happened to be wrong because of some mechanical edge case.

joqiza · Post Post #1536 (isolation #20) » Wed Jan 13, 2021 7:44 am

@Frog I've seen you talking about mafia traitor on these last few pages a lot. Are you deducing that there's a traitor just from setup spec or is there some other justification for that theory that I missed? I wouldn't really expect there to be a mafia traitor in any typical setup, since scum day-chat and associatives are such a big part of the game.

joqiza · Post Post #1540 (isolation #21) » Wed Jan 13, 2021 5:37 pm

I've done a little bit of work tonight, looking into the flipped Momrangal slot to try to evaluate partner and non-partner reads. There are certain areas I'll need to revisit.

I think one of the most important sections, which I want to review again, is the section between 974 and 1273. These are the posts where Grendel is holding his red check, and probing for AI material. He's mostly ignored during these pages. His main suspicion seems to be Luca, who, at Grendel's prompting, goes back and reviews Momrangal's slot in 1089.

Despite Grendel's suspicion, I actually think some of Momrangal's posts paint Luca in a fairly good light. In particular, her 521 and 524 read to me as though she's trying to defend her viewpoint to a townie.

Based on my first read, I also felt like Frogsterking had some decent posts in light of Momrangal's flip. Frog's 932 reads townish to me, as it would be a weird post for someone with TMI to come up with. Similarly, the part of 1323 where Frog reads Momrangal as scum motion detector feels town to me, in light of the fact that Momrangal flipped mafia informed. This is a classic towntell: FOSing scum for the wrong reasons.

Momrangal's claim of scum motion detector (1323) with a negative on OWER is itself kind of odd, if you think about it, given that Mafia Informed could not have possibly visited OWER. I would expect at least a consistent claim in terms of night visits. I guess it was probably a last-ditch effort to fish PR's.

Momrangal was fairly absent for Day 2 and for many parts of Day 1, and I think there's more information to be mined from her movements around the major Day 1 wagons. What makes me hesitate is her post here, in 331.

In post 331, Momrangal wrote:Has my vote landed on scum yet?

This is phrased in a cheeky way that indicates some element of self-consciousness. I think Momrangal was aware of how her vote might be read into and may have used it tactically. I have no idea if that means she was more likely to vote town or scum, I just think that looking at her votes involves a game of wine swaps rather than a straight look at spew. I intend to review her pushes/votes on slots such as OWER and LunarMartian later, but want to be careful in any assumptions I make there. A vote may read very differently in terms of partnered vs. non-partnered, depending on the gamestate context.

My full notes below. (disorganized)

Spoiler: Notes

joqiza · Post Post #1541 (isolation #22) » Wed Jan 13, 2021 5:52 pm

I suppose there is one mechanical edge case where Momrangal could have actually visited OWER n1: if she led the nightkill on OWER, and Amelie also happened to bodyguard OWER. Lol. I wouldn't expect OWER be the nightkill target though, and for him to ALSO be bodyguarded n1 in addition to that, seems really unlikely.

Depending on what exactly mafia was informed of, there doesn't seem to be much of a reason for them to assume that the town PR would be a tracker, rather than a cop. So this line of inquiry (trying to figure out why she claimed scum motion detector, in particular) is probably a dead end.

joqiza · Post Post #1542 (isolation #23) » Wed Jan 13, 2021 6:14 pm

In post 1524, Lunar Martian wrote:Galron is kind of obvTown. It's probably Gamma, but otherwise maybe Luca.

Can you elaborate on these reads, btw? What makes Galron "obvTown" ?

joqiza · Post Post #1543 (isolation #24) » Wed Jan 13, 2021 6:21 pm

Really the only thing that makes me doubt the non-partnered read between Momrangal and Luca is actually the hammer on 1379 and the follow-up comment on 1380. That was kind of random and I'd like to hear Luca elaborate on what exactly he meant by "Couldn't resist." It's just an odd comment to me and the hammer seemed a bit sudden.

joqiza · Post Post #1544 (isolation #25) » Wed Jan 13, 2021 6:26 pm

To be be clear, by the way, I'm not writing off anyone as simply town or scum simply due to partner interxns. That's quite risky, especially when I don't have meta on anyone. But one of my favorite parts of this game is looking at associatives & it's a natural starting point for me.

joqiza · Post Post #1545 (isolation #26) » Wed Jan 13, 2021 6:47 pm

I think main thing on the agenda is to figure out if Momrangel's defense of bugspray's role claim in 854 and 921 reads partnered or whether she was defending a townie from a place of TMI. Other people pointed out that bugspray's claim of back-up neighbor was probably true, but bugs may have have been simply claiming their scum role: mafia back-up neighbor. Momrangel seems to skip that logical step and instead just posits that bugspray's role claim makes them town.

joqiza · Post Post #1547 (isolation #27) » Wed Jan 13, 2021 6:53 pm

Well I guess that's frustrating because I'm trying to dig into the game and make sense of it. Do you disagree with any of my points?

joqiza · Post Post #1548 (isolation #28) » Wed Jan 13, 2021 6:58 pm

Saying my analysis is faux-productive implies it's not productive. You're basically saying, "yeah this analysis is so shitty I wish I could scumread you for it." I subbed into the middle of a game and I'm trying to actually engage with it, so if you feel my points aren't worthwhile I'd at least like to hear why.

joqiza · Post Post #1549 (isolation #29) » Wed Jan 13, 2021 7:01 pm

Like, really, what is the point of your post? Sorry if I'm triggered but if I really am, apparently conftown fypov, why bother making 1546? What benefit does that post provide except to discourage me from trying?

joqiza · Post Post #1551 (isolation #30) » Wed Jan 13, 2021 7:14 pm

I feel like I'm being as concise as possible. I tried to reduce 1540 to the main points I wanted to bring up w.r.t. Luca, Frog, and the possibility of WIFOM in Momrangal's votes.

joqiza · Post Post #1552 (isolation #31) » Wed Jan 13, 2021 7:17 pm

I mean frankly, given that I'm ostensibly conftown FYPOV I'd rather you just engage with the points I brought up about the different slots rather than have a debate about communication. It sounds like a culture difference, I'm considered a low-poster on my home site (people post a lot there, I recently played in a game with 17,000+ posts).

joqiza · Post Post #1554 (isolation #32) » Wed Jan 13, 2021 7:22 pm

- Do you disagree with not!Luca/Momrangel (syntax by which I mean: they aren't a team) or not!Frogster/Momrangel?
- What are your thoughts on Momrangel's defense of bugspray after their role claim?
- Do you have other reads on Momrangal's spew?

These are the 3 main bullet points I can reduce my posts to.

joqiza · Post Post #1556 (isolation #33) » Wed Jan 13, 2021 7:43 pm

No problem. Any future analysis posts I make will include a tl;dr section, just for you.

joqiza · Thu Jan 14, 2021 10:27 am

Meh I'm not really disagreeing that Galron is town, just most of his posts flew under the radar for me on catch-up so was curious why you felt so confident. Luca I think is more important for us to focus on rn because I felt like his interactions with the flipped red slot were the strongest and I really don't see much that pings me or bothers me about his posting. So if he's mafia I'm getting fooled at the moment.

His push on bugspray really stood out on rr because he's pushed it hard and he's justified it via meta. He probably will get that slot flipped today and his determination read towny to me. Like if I were playing a game with someone I had strong meta on and I was scum to their town, I'd be hesitant to hardpush them for meta reasons because doing so would essentially be scum claiming to them. And if I pushed hard enough and got them flipped on D1 where would I go? Scum will certainly tunnel in my experience, but they won't really try to give rope in the same determined way, because they're mainly just focused on having something to do.

joqiza · Thu Jan 14, 2021 10:39 am

In post 1566, Frogsterking wrote:Grendel's ability won't work on anyone outside of the neighborhood so if the whole scum team was left inside, it makes more sense to kill the other pr. The only situation I see this not being the case is if the last one was Trendall and they eliminated Grendel just out of fear of his FoS.

Grendel being the target of the nightkill over the other PR in the hood is an interesting observation and I think that might be the nail in the coffin for the mafia traitor theory, actually. If the remaining scum included a traitor then I think scum would actually WANT to leave the traffic analyst alive, since (if I'm understanding the mechs right) the TA could never get a guilty in that case and could actually mis-clear scum. The TA would be negative utility, essentially. I don't think there's a traitor.

What it implies about the composition of the hood is less clear imo but is worth revisiting once we know more about the PR in the hood and what they've claimed. Note that even if both scum are in the hood and thus "covered," the TA would remain a threat to scum because it can get green checks on townies outside the hood. So it depends on the hood PR's claim. Scum may have simply felt Grendel was the stronger investigative.

joqiza · Thu Jan 14, 2021 11:07 am

Btw, @Frog, I saw your 1558 and will try to get to both those questions this evening.

To respond quickly to something you said in 1561 regarding the Trendall sub-out. Spite is a possible explanation but I frankly I think Trendall's last posts before replacing out were town-indicative in light of his request. Don't want to get into it too much because it's angleshooting but in short making those kind of posts before a sub-out, as scum, would be viewed as distasteful on my home site. I'm aware culture may be different here and it's probably best to avoid reading into ogi elements too much anyway but that's one of the things that cautions me about any solve involving the slot.

I would be fairly surprised as of rn if the remaining scum were simply {bugspray/ejjinami}. I understand the distancing argument but that team feels wrong to me based on how d2 begun. Ejjinami even asked bugspray to take their argument to the hood: seems like a weird play to try to distance where fewer people can see it.

joqiza · Thu Jan 14, 2021 11:25 am

In post 1576, Gamma Emerald wrote: Grendel didn't fullclaim his role though, so the mafia were probably afraid of his role more than whatever was in the neighborhood.

I forgot that he didn't claim his full role on d2, which makes my recent theorycrafting useless. Oops.

I'm doing my best here y'all... sorry.

joqiza · Fri Jan 15, 2021 12:29 pm

Bugs, what exactly changed between 1407 and 1677 w.r.t. your read on Trendall/ejjinami? How did you go from feeling ejjinami was "spewing scum" in 1410 to joining a Luca counterwagon with them? It looks like you just hopped on the wagon with them in 1677 without further thought. If you've had progression on them you haven't explained it.

joqiza · Fri Jan 15, 2021 12:32 pm

This is what I meant about the neighborhood making the game more confusing. It's not inconceivable to me that you two talked things out in the hood, your read evolved, and you started TR'ing them. I could see a universe where that could occur. But I can't actually vet if that happened or not because FMPOV it looks like you just turned on a dime and hopped on a wagon next to one of your top scumreads.

joqiza · Post Post #1704 (isolation #40) » Fri Jan 15, 2021 1:01 pm

Going to request no one hammer here. I understand there's some impatience, but I'd still like to hear all slots out. I don't have the same level of certainty that many of you seem to possess when it comes to your respective solves.

joqiza · Post Post #1706 (isolation #41) » Fri Jan 15, 2021 2:37 pm

In post 1678, Galron wrote:Of the two, looking at the mechanics, it would make more sense for Gamma to be the mafia member just because if there was a town backup neighbor and a scum backup neighbor, and neither knows that the other role exists, for bugs to claim backup neighbor under pressure to do so seems too pure.

@Galron

Why would bugs claiming backup neighbor under pressure be too pure? It seems natural to me for a scum back-up neighbor to claim their role (minus alignment) when pressured.

joqiza · Post Post #1707 (isolation #42) » Fri Jan 15, 2021 2:58 pm

I have some thoughts about the current gamestate that I'll share but I want a couple things first. First, I'd like to get some clarification from bugspray about where their head is at, because their "view of the game" is the one I'm having the most trouble understanding. I also want to hear from the people currently on the Luca wagon: are your votes/scumreads on Luca mainly a conclusion of a TR on bugs?

joqiza · Post Post #1720 (isolation #43) » Sat Jan 16, 2021 3:40 am

Bugspray can you answer my questions please?

joqiza · Post Post #1722 (isolation #44) » Sat Jan 16, 2021 4:05 am

In post 1717, ejjinami wrote:.Someone voting me or giving me some sort of timer to finish the read would be appreciated....
actually, I don’t know what I need. I’ll jsut try to get this done

I'm not going to vote you, but at some point I'm going to hammer bugspray if they don't bother to respond to me. So of you TR them that can be your incentive/timer. Let's say 48 hours.

I think you need to understand what this game looks like from the perspective of someone outside the hood. Right now, three members of the neighborhood are voting as a bloc: you, Galron, and bugs are voting Luca. Of those three, your progression today is the only one that's visible and even coherent to me. When did bugspray's mindset today change from FOSing you to being comfortable with joining a wagon you created? What is the basis for Galron's suspicion on Luca?

I think you @ejjinami, have done an okay job so far of explaining your thought process, but the same can't be said for Galron/bugs. So you need to push them to respond to me in thread. I am here and listening, my method of solving games generally involves trying to hear out every player's perspective. I can't do that if they ignore my posts.

Also, to be clear, I'm still not following the SR's on Luca. My read on Luca is based mainly on partner interactions with the Momrangel slot and secondly on a townread of his playstyle independent to what bugs flips. It appears to me so far that the scumread/counterwagon on Luca is contingent on a townread on bugspray (if there are other reasons, I haven't seen them). But to me, town!bugspray does not necessarily imply scum!Luca.

If I'm reading Luca wrong, I'd like to understand. Do you have a case on him that extends further then "he's pushing on people I think are town." This perspective is what I need from y'all in the hood today.

P-edit: Just saw bugs response, still going to post this, but thx
bugs and you can take your time to get your thoughts in order.

joqiza · Post Post #1725 (isolation #45) » Sat Jan 16, 2021 4:11 am

@Bugspray main thing I really need you to answer rn is 1701. Your progression on the Trendall slot is unclear. Other questions that would be useful to answer:
- can you explain what you said about suspecting one of the original members of the hood?
- who are your top suspects for scum rn? (I don't even really understand your reads. The OMGUS on Luca is self-explanatory I guess but as for the other slots I have no idea what your feelings are.)

joqiza · Post Post #1729 (isolation #46) » Sat Jan 16, 2021 4:53 am

Ur saying both Trendall/cat and Galron are claimed investigative TPR? I will let you all come to a decision but if that's true I'd like you all to consider spilling the tea on any more investigative results because it's d3 and it sounds like there's more mechanical info we could be working with. Game is close to solved for all I know.

I agree a hood of 2 investigatives plus a bodyguard sound kinda sketch, especially with Grendel as a third investigative. So that's concerning. I also agree w/ you on the ejjinami read cuz he seemed pretty genuinely clueless about the TA claim / nightkill.

I'll review your iso to get a sense of your Luca read maybe I missed something. I'll lyk if I have any more questions after that.

joqiza · Post Post #1731 (isolation #47) » Sat Jan 16, 2021 5:11 am

Bugs if you think the team is {Luca/Galron} (that seems to be what you're suggesting) what do you think about Galron's placement on this Luca wagon? I guess they would just be distancing then fypov?

P-edit: I think you guys in the hood are probably approaching this wrong tbh. There shouldn't be so much concern about "leaking hood info" you should be collaborating more with thread. It's very frustrating and if there's scum in the hood they already know everything.

joqiza · Post Post #1797 (isolation #48) » Wed Jan 20, 2021 1:46 pm

eijinami needs to claim and give any reports they have to share, for sure. gamma can act as a fact-check.

@gamma you're able to see stuff in the hood from before you were added right? or can you only see stuff after?

did Galron have a second report, or was he roleblocked? I didn't see him specify.

joqiza · Post Post #1805 (isolation #49) » Wed Jan 20, 2021 4:36 pm

I believe Gamma said at some point yesterday that Galron simply hadn't posted his N2 result in the neighborhood thread. I hope Galron shared it with the fellas at some point last night, otherwise I'll be a bit frustrated.

Rn I townread Frog, Luca, and OWER, and they seem to have a decent grip on this game. My top suspect is ejjinami after the Galron flip but will wait to hear everyone out. Still feels like we're working with an incomplete picture.

Overall solid work by town so far. I know I haven't done too much but thought I'd give some encouragement. I've enjoyed the table a lot.

joqiza · Fri Jan 22, 2021 10:02 pm

Need a bit more time, sorry for delaying it lads. I've read thru and I'm thinking, will get on it tomorrow when I've got a bit of free time.

Game seems close to mechanically locked at first glance. If it's not 100% locked would prefer to review the slots before we elim anyone. I wanna check out bugs's interactions again, I feel like that approach has guided me well so far. Would be great if we could hit scum first try here and wrap things up.

joqiza · Post Post #1989 (isolation #51) » Sun Jan 24, 2021 3:51 pm

Sorry for my absence. I'm catching up now.

joqiza · Post Post #1990 (isolation #52) » Sun Jan 24, 2021 4:10 pm

@Frogsterking

I'll double vote you today, I've been fairly distracted and haven't had time to review.

One thing I will say is that a pure town hood with a neapolitan, a roleblocker, and a bodyguard seems kind of cracked to me. I really would not put that in a setup myself, I don't really see a third scum role that could balance that well unless it's like a strongman that can get fake cleared, but that would be pretty annoying in the same way tracker/ninja in same setup would be. Also if the hood is pure that means two mafs outside the hood, aka an extra chance for the T.A. to get a red check. Neapolitan already strong af. Idk this setup is seeming weird to me.

ejj's claim can potentially establish a CC here by roleblocking the night kill so I think we lynch outside, I wouldn't immediately rule out that it's some kinda gambit (in one of my recently completed scumgames, our last maf just claimed like vengeful basically which put him in eventual autoloss, he did it cuz we were getting dumpstered so he just wanted to see how long he could last.) So like lynch ejj eventually but given we should have at least 3 shots here we can lynch outside first.

I don't think maf NKing hurts us at all, I think in that case we just lynch whoever ejj roleblocked and like keep going if they flip town, with the understanding that ejj has to find scum before lylo/mylo or else he eats rope.

Lmk if I'm thinking about it right, seems to me we're in a very strong position mechanically.

joqiza · Post Post #1991 (isolation #53) » Sun Jan 24, 2021 4:18 pm

When I say I double vote you I mean I'll follow your vote lol, just to clarify.

Uh I think my preferred elim outside is just Lunar. I haven't reviewed tbh but based on memory all OWER did was get tunneled by Momrangal d1 then tunnel bugspray d2. So like if he's last maf he's kinda throwing ngl. Gamma can only be Strongman so maybe worth reviewing how much town!roleblocker --> scum!strongman historically but personally I wouldn't do put that in a normal setup without informing town in some way. I don't really have any issues w/ gamma's posts either.

Honestly I think it might still just be ejj in order for the setup and yesterday's wagon to make sense in my head, but willing to give him the chance to find scum.

joqiza · Post Post #1992 (isolation #54) » Sun Jan 24, 2021 4:36 pm

Yah I think we just lynch Lunar and ejji can roleblock OWER

joqiza · Post Post #1993 (isolation #55) » Sun Jan 24, 2021 4:41 pm

I guess theoretically last maf could be mafia roleblocker and could roleblock town!ejj. I think maf roleblocker takes priority over town roleblocker. So we can't be 100% sure on clears from ejj

joqiza · Post Post #1994 (isolation #56) » Sun Jan 24, 2021 4:46 pm

VOTE: Lunar Martian

I think we elim Lunar here. My only real input is ejji gets rope at some point unless we hit maf first, don't give him a pass in lylo/mylo just because he seems like he put himself in an unwinnable situation, I've seen scum do stuff like that before.

I'll switch my vote if Frog wants someone else.

joqiza · Post Post #2002 (isolation #57) » Mon Jan 25, 2021 4:36 am

Random thought but I wonder if Momrangal was Mafia Informed of a Neapolitan. That might explain why she claimed PR in response to Grendel.

Did Galron claim his exact role before D2 or just say he had a green check? @hood

joqiza · Post Post #2011 (isolation #58) » Mon Jan 25, 2021 1:42 pm

i am willing to let unsettlingly sexy hollister cat live another day

joqiza · Post Post #2022 (isolation #59) » Wed Jan 27, 2021 6:51 am

I'm skimming OWER's iso, and in order to believe he's scum you need to believe that he basically said, "okay, bugspray i'm gonna hard tunnel you starting d1, momrangal you hard tunnel me, we're gonna spend all game trying to get each other executed despite the fact that town has PR's, also I'm going to make no effort to make allies and in fact I'm just going to be vaguely antagonistic towards everyone. This'll work out I bet."

joqiza · Post Post #2023 (isolation #60) » Wed Jan 27, 2021 6:58 am

I think Lunar is probably the best elimination if we're lynching in the PoE of {Lunar/OWER/Luca}. Maybe I actually revisit Luca today though idk. I can't really stomach lynching OWER over Lunar I think OWER's play would be so wild if he's maf and his position makes sense wrt ejji because ejji is scummy in terms of wagon placement yesterday and setup spec, I'm just willing to lynch outside for mechanical optimality.

I don't even think Lunar is that scummy, I think him apparently not paying enough attention to the gamestate to realize I'm clear might be kind of towny but if we're lynching outside of ejji I do think he belongs in the PoE.

joqiza · Post Post #2033 (isolation #61) » Fri Jan 29, 2021 3:44 am

Tone. Logic. Meta. OCEAN. My grandmother used to tell me stories about the old days, a time of peace when the Frogsterking kept balance between the village members. But that all changed when the Mafia attacked. Only the Frogsterking mastered all four scumhunting styles. Only he could stop the ruthless mafias. But when the world needed him most, he vanished. A hundred years have passed and the Mafia is nearing victory in the War. Two years ago, Gamma Emerald and the men of my village journeyed to the neighborhood to help fight against the Mafia, leaving me and my brother to look after our tribe. Some people believe that the Frogsterking was never reborn, and that the cycle is broken. But I haven't lost hope. I still believe that somehow, the Frogsterking will return to save the world

joqiza · Post Post #2036 (isolation #62) » Fri Jan 29, 2021 5:12 am

Gl gl

Georgey B bring the thunder

joqiza · Post Post #2062 (isolation #63) » Sun Jan 31, 2021 2:07 pm

joqiza · Post Post #2070 (isolation #64) » Sun Jan 31, 2021 2:20 pm

In post 2046, ejjinami wrote:Galron checked me N2. Apparently he got freaked out by my setup spec as well because I pretty much claimed to not be a pure neighbor (and he read trendal as VT)... so for some reason he decided to check me

Wouldn't even just a regular Town Neighbor show up as not VT? Am I wrong abt that? I don't get why he checked you if that's the case.

joqiza · Post Post #2072 (isolation #65) » Sun Jan 31, 2021 2:25 pm

Ejj if you're town I think you played really selfishly.

joqiza · Post Post #2074 (isolation #66) » Sun Jan 31, 2021 2:31 pm

@ejj

Like Lunar said I let the OWER hang go through because I thought we were essentially in mech autowin. If we end up losing to scum!Luca your play probably wouldn't make the difference, but if scum ends up being in Lunar/Gamma and they win, it probably comes down to the point on your racket yesterday.

Another question: why were you assuming that mafia would target you? I don't understand why they'd ever choose to nightkill you if they believed your claim.

joqiza · Post Post #2077 (isolation #67) » Sun Jan 31, 2021 2:50 pm

People hung OWER yesterday for voting you, when today by your own admission your roleclaim yesterday was a lie. On his side, he was justified in recognizing that you were capping about your role, regardless of what your alignment ends up being.

Idk. Maybe you didn't change anything if the collective town PoE had OWER in it anyway. I'm not sure that's the case, but it's not worth harping over now.

Also to me it doesn't make sense for mafia to target you because mafia is either 1. gamma, and they know you're capping, 2. one of Luca/Lunar, and if they believe your claim they believe Gamma is cleared, so by killing you they'd just lock in a PoE of 2 when town has 2 eliminations.

joqiza · Post Post #2079 (isolation #68) » Sun Jan 31, 2021 3:02 pm

Ejji if you can explain how mafia targetting you last night would have actually given autowin, that might help me understand your perspective.

joqiza · Post Post #2085 (isolation #69) » Sun Jan 31, 2021 3:35 pm

In post 2080, ejjinami wrote:actually, some feedback would be appreciated.

Like Lunar said it's a discussion for post-game really.

Look I'm not some elite player, I'm not an arbiter if what's good play or not. I just don't feel we gained anything from your fakeclaim, I don't think mafia does anything except target a clear ever regardless, and I may have defended OWER more strongly if I'd known but I was comfortable cuz I figured "eh game is close to locked."

Just frustrating. There really wasn't a need for it anyway, we had 3 chances to hit mafia, like just claim your role and find scum, no need for all the shenanigans.

I'll go through the game... at some point. I think ejj may need to just Die today but I can give my thoughts for f3 if he flips town. To be frank I'm a bit burned out on mafia right now.

joqiza · Post Post #2088 (isolation #70) » Sun Jan 31, 2021 3:46 pm

Froggie you're dead chief

joqiza · Post Post #2092 (isolation #71) » Sun Jan 31, 2021 3:56 pm

In post 2089, ejjinami wrote: then just vote me. I’d very much prefer to get lynched today than in F3

gonna wait to hear from the full table first

joqiza · Post Post #2093 (isolation #72) » Sun Jan 31, 2021 4:07 pm

ejji the reason mafia kills outside you is if they take your claim at face value they're already in autoloss

nothing they can do matters if you're actually town roleblocker who's cleared gamma. if they kill you they lock themselves in the PoE anyway.

so unless they're strongman or ascetic like you mentioned they just play in the universes where you're lying about that role, cuz in the universes where you're telling the truth their decisions don't matter

and given how cracked a pure town hood with an investigative/protective/roleblocker would've been, it wouldn't be hard for mafia to make the deduction that your claim isn't real.

joqiza · Post Post #2095 (isolation #73) » Sun Jan 31, 2021 4:10 pm

yeah the og members of the hood were galron/amelie/trendall-slot(now ejjinami)

gamma and bugspray were backups joined when amelie got killed

joqiza · Post Post #2100 (isolation #74) » Sun Jan 31, 2021 4:34 pm

2 back-ups would make the game more swingy, not less.

In this universe, as long as the mafia don't kill in the pure town hood (already a bad gamestate for them), they also additionally have to deal with the fact that the traffic analyst can get red checks on both of them.

joqiza · Post Post #2101 (isolation #75) » Sun Jan 31, 2021 4:36 pm

Not saying it's impossible, I genuinely don't understand how normal games are balanced on this site and my understanding is there can be some level of mod wifom. Just my 2c. my own setup spec intuition would say 1 scum og member and 1 scum backup for decent balance

joqiza · Post Post #2103 (isolation #76) » Mon Feb 01, 2021 1:45 pm

Aight fellas time for me to do some rereading and see if I can make any progress on parsing this game.

Will just post my thoughts as I go.

joqiza · Post Post #2110 (isolation #77) » Mon Feb 01, 2021 6:36 pm

Well, I only got through the first 20 pages on my rereads.

Spoiler: Notes

Has anyone else revisited the early game Momrangal and bugspray wagons in light of all the different flips? Would be good to get everyone's thoughts here.

joqiza · Post Post #2111 (isolation #78) » Mon Feb 01, 2021 6:43 pm

In post 2104, Luca Blight wrote:I'm really lacking motivation for this game right now. I feel like just eliminating ejj tbh.

Before the fakeclaim, I thought ejj was scum by PoE. Now I'm back to being of the same opinion, but even more so given they were being deliberately deceptive.

I don't think Lunar is scum. Gamma has seemed Townish most of the game, and two scum back-up neighbors would be strange. There's also the fact that the BG died N1, so scum probably knew about Galron being a PR.

This is probably where I'm at, but want to stir some discussion first in case ejji flips town. I'm struggling to find the motivation too, I'll probably be taking a break from mafia after this.

joqiza · Post Post #2112 (isolation #79) » Mon Feb 01, 2021 6:45 pm

I'll pick up on pg 21 tmrw afternoon. I feel like there's probably something of value that can be revealed by how Mom & bugs played around the d1 wagons. I know Froggie cased a bunch of different people w/ bugs earlier, so I'll review his work at some point.

joqiza · Post Post #2114 (isolation #80) » Tue Feb 02, 2021 2:26 am

No worries mate, life comes first. Best of luck on your exams.

joqiza · Post Post #2117 (isolation #81) » Tue Feb 02, 2021 8:44 am

In post 2105, Gamma Emerald wrote:I don’t feel like limming ejji is a good move
I feel like the way he immediately snapped to fessing up reads like newbtown that failed a gambit and wants to try to mitigate damage

The phrasing of this is actually a bit weird to me, given that ejji is saying you knew the whole time. Your words here indicate distance, since you're calling him a newbtown that failed a gambit. But you were (ostensibly) complicit in his play.

Why did you allow ejjinami to do what he did?

joqiza · Post Post #2118 (isolation #82) » Tue Feb 02, 2021 8:45 am

To be clear, what I find weird is that you now appear to be criticizing his play when you were very much a part of it.

joqiza · Post Post #2119 (isolation #83) » Tue Feb 02, 2021 9:05 am

(I'm not just bringing this up to like, make you feel bad if you're town. My concern is that your post there indicates you're thinking from a scum perspective. Obviously you would have no ownership in ejji's FPSing if you're mafia.)

joqiza · Tue Feb 02, 2021 10:49 am

Okay, so where does that leave you? Assume you only get one opportunity to hit mafia between Lunar/Luca.

joqiza · Post Post #2149 (isolation #85) » Tue Feb 02, 2021 5:56 pm

Some brief notes on pgs 21 through 30.

Spoiler: Notes

I think so far the rr is making me feel better about Gamma. I already felt good about Luca but the read is reinforcing that, too.

Another thing worth noting is that Luca was teamreading Lunar/bugs from very early in the game. Frog also outed the case on Lunar/bugs on d3, iirc. Despite this, scum!Lunar would have had to go ahead and hardbus anyway. Which is a bit of an interesting decision for scum to make.

Will pick this back up tmrw.

joqiza · Post Post #2150 (isolation #86) » Tue Feb 02, 2021 6:01 pm

Lunar, I think what you're gonna need to do if you're town is come to specific FOS between Luca/Gamma and build the case yourself. I'm not sure I'm going to be able to do that for you since I'm not really seeing much that I can hold against them on rr. Saying "we should just nuke both of them" isn't really gonna work because as of rn you're not gonna be able to easily effect those hangs.

In post 2125, Lunar Martian wrote:I have two suspects and two lims remaining.

I'd advise everyone to play as though they have one chance to elim mafia here. I think that's the right mindset.

joqiza · Post Post #2161 (isolation #87) » Wed Feb 03, 2021 3:34 pm

OK Lunar I appreciate the work you put together with the vote counts, and we're on the same page with Luca--it'd surprise me if he flipped scum cuz he pretty much got bugs chopped, and it seemed like he'd been trying to do that pretty consistently since d1. Also seems like Momrangal was trying to talk him off the wagon. So yeah, let's take Luca town for now.

What's the argument for Gamma scum though? That's what I'm missing from the VC's, walk me through that. Remember, I don't know your alignment, and even if I assume you're town, that doesn't necessarily mean to me that it's Gamma, cuz it could still be ejjinami. I know you TR ejji, but would you say there's an actual reason for Gamma to be scum other than just PoE?

When I grow confident in a solve it's when I simultaneously feel confident in the things that make my townreads town, as well as the things that make my scumreads scum. That's kind of what I'm looking for here.

joqiza · Post Post #2162 (isolation #88) » Wed Feb 03, 2021 3:44 pm

Like to me, it seems like you just said, "okay, ejjinami town, so it's in Luca/Gamma. Oh, joq wants me to pick one? Hm, well, looks like it can't be Luca, so it must be Gamma."

But like, you seem to be missing the step where you say, "okay, is Gamma actually scummy? Is there a narrative I can create in my head for scum!Gamma that makes sense in terms of his interactions with the flipped mafia and how he would have played the game? What does the setup look like if Gamma is scum?"

Because at least for me, I find a lot that I PoE to someone, and then it's like, "wait, this feels weird. Maybe I need to revisit the assumptions I've made thus far."

And it feels like you're missing those final steps rn, but maybe I'm just not seeing it.

joqiza · Post Post #2171 (isolation #89) » Wed Feb 03, 2021 5:57 pm

In post 2166, Lunar Martian wrote:Look at Gamma's positioning on and around wagons, particularly wagons that flip scum. Gamma is willing to vote Mafia early on but then unvotes to "rethink". Gamma generally was pushing counterwagons to scum wagons.

Other than ORAM, which counterwagons was he involved in? It looks like other than that he just had his vote on bugs.

joqiza · Post Post #2172 (isolation #90) » Wed Feb 03, 2021 6:08 pm

I mean, I do think the ORAM wagon was kind of sketch. Bugs and Momrangal were both on it, so clearly it was their ticket to D2. But I don't really see any reason to believe that all 3 mafia

had

to be on it, given the other counterwagons kind of disintegrated. My recollection is that Frog was prety determined to hang the slot due to some psychometrics rabbit hole he went down. I'll review it ig.

joqiza · Sun Feb 07, 2021 12:32 pm

alright I'm here. Sorry, some RL stuff got in the way. Gonna finish up my rr now

joqiza · Sun Feb 07, 2021 12:57 pm

Meh I was entertaining scum!Lunar but I feel like it's probably just the Trendall slot / ejjinami.

Trendall/Lunar/bugspray all have dueling 3 vote wagons in 808, Momrangal opts to put her vote on Lunar in 820 and 821. Lunar follows shortly by voting bugspray in 828, putting them at L-1. It's all a bit convoluted for scum.

Mafia can do that if they all wanted to bus, but based on posts like 854, I don't think Momrangal had intention to bus d1. The ORAM wagon kind of came out of nowhere and I don't think it would be easy for scum to predict and set up on that.

Worth noting Amelie had two confirmed mafia in her townreads in 849. I doubt mafia targeted her, it's more likely she protected the kill, which is +scum Trendall since he was in the original hood. It could arise arbitrarily but seems more likely in a universe where Galron was targeted for the nightkill.

joqiza · Post Post #2184 (isolation #93) » Sun Feb 07, 2021 1:16 pm

Hm hold on

What did Trendall claim in the hood? @Gamma Didn't someone say Trendall claimed investigative TPR?

joqiza · Post Post #2185 (isolation #94) » Sun Feb 07, 2021 1:17 pm

Because ejjinami pretending to be investigative PR as macho neighbor for a gambit is one thing, but Trendall doing it too would be weird. That would imply the gambit persisted across multiple players in the slot.

joqiza · Post Post #2186 (isolation #95) » Sun Feb 07, 2021 1:30 pm

In post 1424, bugspray wrote:the cat muscle dude says his role is a counterpart to mine and i have no fucking clue what that's even supposed to mean

what did this mean? @ejjinami

how was your role a counterpart to bugspray's?

joqiza · Post Post #2187 (isolation #96) » Sun Feb 07, 2021 1:34 pm

In post 1427, ejjinami wrote:
bugspray wrote:the cat muscle dude says his role is a counterpart to mine and i have no fucking clue what that's even supposed to mean
don’t make a big deal out of it. I literally can’t explain it without claiming
IF it’s absolutely necessary, I’ll claim in the neighbor chat
if not, I’d prefer to avoid it

I said that it will make perfect sense and it will. I already crumbed hard enough
Just trust me on that one and if you’re dissatisfied with my answer later on,
lynch me
. I won’t be opposed.

Where did you crumb your role? And which role did you crumb: macho or roleblocker?

joqiza · Post Post #2188 (isolation #97) » Sun Feb 07, 2021 1:58 pm

In post 1726, bugspray wrote:my top suspect is luca but elim there is impossible. i have some paranoia around galron because i don't think there's any way town gets three investigative roles and a bodyguard with one bodyguard in the hood with two investigatyors seems like it would be RIDICULOUSLY townsided. i think hollister cat is likely town because that slot started talking about how i must be an aescetic neighbor or something which i think is a real townslip due to the fact that i claimed backup neighbor in at least one spot and i'd expect my claim would also be mentioned in the scum thread which i would definitely think someone would fully read on replace in unless it's a toxic mess which isn't likely imo because momrangel wouldnt let that happen
,y rluca read and it's more than just an omgus, have you read my iso?
quoting what you are having trouble understanding in particular is good

This is an interesting post in retrospect, as it does imply that Trendall claimed investigative.

I'm curious as to what the ascetic neighbor thing was. I wish I could read the posts for myself.

joqiza · Post Post #2189 (isolation #98) » Sun Feb 07, 2021 2:23 pm

Side note, the only thing I found on my rr that was suspicious from Luca was the progression of these two posts:

In post 1995, Luca Blight wrote:I slightly prefer an Outworld elim but Lunar is ok as well. I’m also happy to follow Frogster’s intuition on this one.

In post 2102, Luca Blight wrote:Wow. If you are Town then this was a terrible move. Literally the only reason I was Ok with eliminating Outworld (who I had locked as Town since D2) was because I thought a Town win was inevitable, based on you being a Roleblocker.

2102 not necessarily a "lie" after 1995, but does feel a bit like revisionist history.

joqiza · Post Post #2190 (isolation #99) » Sun Feb 07, 2021 2:37 pm

VOTE: ejjinami

Going to leave my vote here for now. This slot has consistently played against town win condition. ejjinami entered the game defending bugspray and trying to eliminate luca based on a case he never articulated. The following day he fake-claimed a self-resolving role and used this to vote and eliminate a slot that would otherwise not be in the PoE. Let's make something clear: his plan legitimately makes no sense, he says that it's predicated on him becoming the nightkill target, which I've explained is unlikely, and even if it happened it would tell us nothing because... mafia can holster. Only in some bizarro world where mafia chooses to target him two nights in a row would that play ever effect anything of value.

The reason I dragged this out is because 1) I still have a slight ogi bias to the slot due to Trendall's comments before subout, 2) some of bugs/ejji's interactions read a bit weird as partners. My main goal was to see if any other player had TMI that ejjinami = town. Gamma and Lunar both townreading him concerned me--despite ejjinami being fairly scummy, I was wondering to myself if in fact he was spewed town, and one of those two intended to set up on his flip.

This is still possible, and is something to consider if we do flip ejji and he's a villager. If it came down to Lunar/Gamma I'd lean Lunar, mainly because of Gamma's role though tbh. On rr Gamma's game isn't quite as strong as I remember.

Luca is genuinely unsuspicious save for the single progression I highlighted above (which would be good to get an answer to), other than that I didn't see anything that concerned me. I think bugs potentially does not get chopped if not for Luca. Momrangal's interactions with Luca also suggest Luca is town.

joqiza · Sun Feb 07, 2021 2:40 pm

The other evidence against the ejjinami slot is mechanical:
1) general setup spec (og member in the hood)
2) Amelie dying n1 increases chances of a scum!Trendall universe
3) Trendall clearly claimed town investigative PR, which means that for the slot to be town, both Trendall AND ejjinami would have had to decide that it was a good idea to FPS

joqiza · Sun Feb 07, 2021 2:50 pm

In post 2190, joqiza wrote: This is still possible, and is something to consider if we do flip ejji and he's a villager. If it came down to Lunar/Gamma I'd lean Lunar, mainly because of Gamma's role though tbh. On rr Gamma's game isn't quite as strong as I remember.

To clarify this, if ejji flipped town, my main suspect would probably be Lunar for scum, but not to an extent that I'd ask anyone to sheep my read. In fact if it goes there, I'd like you all to take your time in 3-way, case everyone (including Luca), and if anyone simply says "this is what joq wanted" treat that as a scum-claim. I usually hold myself to a pretty high standard, but I've felt unusually disinvested from this game and mafia in general lately, so I don't really have as much of a bead on this game as I'd like to.

To that end I want everyone to place their vote today independent of me and justify it beyond "following the clear." I'm fine with strongarming a hang when I feel confident but I don't this game, so I think it's important to see how votes land.

joqiza · Sun Feb 07, 2021 3:40 pm

I understand the sentiment, I feel the same way. Ultimately it's on me, since I should have made it clear that a fakeclaim like that would be unacceptable. I gave too much wiggle room, so I accept ownership of my poor play in that regard.

@Luca my issue was basically with the minutia of your second post. You said you had OWER as locktown, yet on the actual day OWER got eliminated you mentioned that you slightly preferred an OWER elimination over a Lunar elimination. Does that mean you had Lunar as locktown too? You're up for a Lunar elimination today, what changed?

joqiza · Sun Feb 07, 2021 3:41 pm

I guess if you just said "eh we're in autowin" that's understandable, just surprising on rr that you seemed to want OWER ~rather~ than Lunar.

joqiza · Sun Feb 07, 2021 3:50 pm

Okay, thanks. That clarifies things and makes sense to me.

joqiza · Mon Feb 15, 2021 2:55 pm

Well done Luca and Lunar. GG all.