TM2021 | Anime Destroys Untrod Tripod | Endgame

[Pine]

Pine has 0 plan for someone flipping town today. It is identical to flipping 2 people.
That is not a mechanical plan and it's wrong to phrase it as one.
We will support any plan that allows for a town victory in the case of a Pine/Ram scumteam. Does the plan account for that?

If Pine claims to jk you/Shea and a kill happens, then he has no choice but to clear whichever one of you he claims to jk because if a kill still happens during the jk, then he’s a liar basically. And if no kill happens then all 3 confitown slots survive the NK, so how isn’t that protown?

Exactly this.

[NorwegianboyEE]

You're still pretty much assuming the plan will go in this order.

TSQ flips scum ->
Pine JK's a slot and catches final scum or clears them as town.

But what i am saying is that the entire premise is flawed from the get go, because if TSQ flips town then he can't clear anyone. So unless you are absolutely sure TSQ flips scum this plan is completely folly and it also makes complete sense for scum!Pine to argue for this plan sunce he would know TSQ is flipping town.

But Ram is saying that either of you flipping town clears the other one right? So why does scum!Ram say this?

Because he only needs to elim 1 more player if he mislims today. And the easiest path for scum!Ram is to elim FL, either before or after scum!Pine.

[Nancy Drew 39]

He expects that PenguinPower would design the setup with something that would punish us for assuming the setup was the exact same as last time. However, it would not be so far away from the previous setup as to include an entirely ungated role.

I think your reasoning for implying that FL’s role makes more sense than Pine’s in unfounded but I think it’s still possible both could be town because of Misty venge because that’s a neutral/negative for town.

[NorwegianboyEE]

You're still pretty much assuming the plan will go in this order.

TSQ flips scum ->
Pine JK's a slot and catches final scum or clears them as town.

But what i am saying is that the entire premise is flawed from the get go, because if TSQ flips town then he can't clear anyone. So unless you are absolutely sure TSQ flips scum this plan is completely folly and it also makes complete sense for scum!Pine to argue for this plan sunce he would know TSQ is flipping town.

But Ram is saying that either of you flipping town clears the other one right? So why does scum!Ram say this?

Because he only needs to elim 1 more player if he mislims today. And the easiest path for scum!Ram is to elim FL, either before or after scum!Pine.

I mean it's also pretty obvious that following a TSQ or Norwe townflip, he would not have the credibility to mislim the other.

[Nancy Drew 39]

You're still pretty much assuming the plan will go in this order.

TSQ flips scum ->
Pine JK's a slot and catches final scum or clears them as town.

But what i am saying is that the entire premise is flawed from the get go, because if TSQ flips town then he can't clear anyone. So unless you are absolutely sure TSQ flips scum this plan is completely folly and it also makes complete sense for scum!Pine to argue for this plan sunce he would know TSQ is flipping town.

But Ram is saying that either of you flipping town clears the other one right? So why does scum!Ram say this?

Because he only needs to elim 1 more player if he mislims today. And the easiest path for scum!Ram is to elim FL, either before or after scum!Pine.

But wouldn’t Pine’s plan stop the NK? Or you’re arguing that he’s trying to set up FL or something?

[Pine]

Because nothing else makes sense.

Mistyx - I suppose it’s possible you’re scum, but Vengeful would be a ridiculously reckless claim. You’ve also been playing D3 suspicious and Townie, and if I’m vexed by your conclusions you’re coming by then honestly.
Nancy Drew 39 - Town by play. If Nancy is scum here, she deserves the win.
Flavor Leaf - Has repeatedly Towntold. Has been logical and incisive, and has had even less patience for foolishness than I have. I think he’d be way more indulgent as scum, just from a meta perspective.
Pine - I’ve seen my role PM.
thestatusquo - Mostly PoE, supported by his manipulative gameplay and targeted flattery of some and as hom attacks on others.
Ramcius - Was high on my PoE list, but if you read his ISO from the point I suggested, I think it shows him Town.
NorwegianboyEE - Like 95% scum. Has been supporting and defending Shea for quite some time now with practically no Towncase on him.
Akarin - Town by role.

My read is that Shea is a PR and Norwee has been doing everything to advance a Norwee/Pine dichotomy to protect him.

Okay so

If Norwee is 95% scum

If shea is only scum by PoE

Then what if norwee is the 5%

If you think it can be Shea + someone who isn’t Norwee why can’t it be Norwee + that person

Thing is, Norwee can really ONLY be scum with Shea here. In the 5% situation, however, there are a number of people Shea could be working with. We are better off eliminating Shea, jailing Norwee, and then having either a confirmed!scum Norwee or a confirmed!Town Norwee.

This is where Shea/Norwee’s protestations fall apart - my plan allows us to hard sort Norwee, and that is NOT something they want.

[NorwegianboyEE]

But wouldn’t Pine’s plan stop the NK? Or you’re arguing that he’s trying to set up FL or something?

Scum!Ramcius would not be able to finish the game by mislimming both me and TSQ so they will eventually need to frame FL.

[Nancy Drew 39]

Yeah, you guys have bad reading comprehension if you think i have any sort of change in my reads essentially all day phase

So is your current solve still Norwee/Shea then?

[NorwegianboyEE]

Which we've already seen the starting of with Ramcius and Pine putting doubt on FL earlier.

[Pine]

You're still pretty much assuming the plan will go in this order.

TSQ flips scum ->
Pine JK's a slot and catches final scum or clears them as town.

But what i am saying is that the entire premise is flawed from the get go, because if TSQ flips town then he can't clear anyone. So unless you are absolutely sure TSQ flips scum this plan is completely folly and it also makes complete sense for scum!Pine to argue for this plan sunce he would know TSQ is flipping town.

But Ram is saying that either of you flipping town clears the other one right? So why does scum!Ram say this?

Because he only needs to elim 1 more player if he mislims today. And the easiest path for scum!Ram is to elim FL, either before or after scum!Pine.

I mean it's also pretty obvious that following a TSQ or Norwe townflip, he would not have the credibility to mislim the other.

Following a Townflip I wouldn’t have the

reads

to go after the other. Don’t put words in my mouth.

[NorwegianboyEE]

What is Pine's plan if we mislim today?
There are 2 scum, and if we mislim there are still 2 scum. If Pine's plan is to jailkeep 1 suspected scum, the other scum can do the kill.

[Pine]

Yeah, you guys have bad reading comprehension if you think i have any sort of change in my reads essentially all day phase

So is your current solve still Norwee/Shea then?

Which we've already seen the starting of with Ramcius and Pine putting doubt on FL earlier.

Nah, bullshit. Don’t start that nonsense - covering my bases and considering all possibilities is not even close to the lining up of elims you’ve been doing all game.

You can’t ask me what my plan is if Shea flips Town then accuse me of having a plan for when Shea flips Town. You can’t have it both ways.

[NorwegianboyEE]

You can’t ask me what my plan is if Shea flips Town then accuse me of having a plan for when Shea flips Town. You can’t have it both ways.

This is an argument devoid of any meaning.

[Pine]

You demanded I explain what if Shea flips Town.

I think about it, try to sort on that assumption, give thoughts.

You say “Look, he’s setting up for a turn on a Shea Town flip!”

You cannot have it both ways.

[NorwegianboyEE]

Let's take an unlikely scenario. It's a thought exercise. Let's say it's scum!Ram and scum!FL.
Pine's plan is to elim TSQ and jail norwe. In this scenario, TSQ flips town, and Pine subsequently jails norwe.
Scum can make a kill. Both scum!Ram and scum!FL are free to kill whoever they like, and decides to kill Misty.

Let's look at a scenario we know to be false, for the sake of it- scum!Ram and scum!Norwe.
Pine's plan is to elim TSQ and jail norwe. In this scenario, TSQ flips town, and Pine subsequently jails norwe.
Scum!Ram is free to make a kill on whoever he likes, and decides to kill Misty.

Let's look at the scenario we believe is true. Scum!Ram and Scum!Pine.
Pine's plan is to elim TSQ and jail norwe. In this scenario, TSQ flips town, and Pine subsequently claims to have jailed norwe.
Scum!Ram and scum!Pine are both free to make a kill on whoever they like, and decide to kill Misty.


What is the difference between these scenarios? If you were in day 4 of any of these scenarios, would you be able to tell the difference between them?

[NorwegianboyEE]

You demanded I explain what if Shea flips Town.

I think about it, try to sort on that assumption, give thoughts.

The issue with your plan for if TSQ flips town is that FL is not a 2 man scumteam by himself.

[Pine]

...No, he isn’t. No one said that. Further, FL remains almost certainly Town, and I’ve said nothing to the contrary.

I’m getting a bit tired of you lying about what I’ve said.

[Pine]

To be quite frank, I’m going to take a long hard look at

everyone

if Shea flips Town because it means I’m reading the whole game wrong. However, FL still comes out as pretty near the top of the Town pile there.

[NorwegianboyEE]

JJH is spitballing to me right now the best way to go forward if we do a TSQ elimination today.

TSQ mislim, no leashing for protective claims at night with assumption for continued play being worst case scenario of consensus town being killed.
Elim scum!Ram, pine leashed to jailing FL leading to a no kill because scum is surely within pine/fl
Elim Pine and FL in any order
This plan accounts for scum!Ram with either scum!Pine or scum!FL
however, it does rely on scum!Ram and would lose to a Pine/FL scumteam

[Pine]

[NorwegianboyEE]

Does Jingle see any problems with this proposed plan?

[Thestatusquo]

It's hard because you have a million posts but I'll look.

[Flavor Leaf]

I don’t understand the concept of going Status instead of Norwegian

[Thestatusquo]

I don’t know what’s up with FL here but I definitely think Ram is town and Pine’s plan is protown. I’m not sure if I should vote for Norwee or Shea yet but I have some paranoia that Norwee might actually know his alignment, since he seems to be beyond convinced that She’s flipping town.

FL suddenly wavering on his hard town Pine read, why?

I’m really paranoid that it might actually be FL/Norwee and prior to that I was going to post that it was likely a Norwee/Shea team but now I’m wondering if Math was actually right?

Do you think both scum are in the vanilla claims, or if it's 1 in vanilla and 1 in PR, or if it's both in PR claims?

I think that DEB strongman doesn’t make sense with just molla’s role, so at least on in vts and I really don’t understand the Ram sr. I think he’s really obvious town. I mean it’s possible that this setup doesn’t make a whole lot of sense mech wise but I don’t think Penguin creates just a ridiculous setup.

See Pine jking either you or Shea would clear whomever but I don’t believe scum!Ram says green flip on you/Shea clears the other. Scum doesn’t want clears. That’s a transparently townie thought.

Ok but I made a very similar post day 2 that you said was town so if you think its either me or ram that point is a wash.

You need to link or quote that post because I can’t remember.

Its not quite the same now that I've found the post but this is what I was thinking of, but the logic is roughly the same.

I don’t fully townread Zor, but with that claim they’ve put an target on their back so i’m willing to back off since they will hopefully get resolved at some point anyways.

UNVOTE:

How much time do we have left?

Quoting issue.

We have like nine days. Pump the brakes, crazytrain.

What quoting issue? And there’s only 2 votes on TGP, he’s not getting run up.

Do you have any familiarity with TGP scum meta because I have none.

I think you’re very likely town now which makes me think Shea might be too now. The reason is that he said, if either one of us flips red look at the other. Well I’m obviously not and I don’t think you are either, so why would scum!Shea make that comment about 2 town slots, right? That doesn’t make any sense, so Shea’s probably town for that.

[Pine]

Does Jingle see any problems with this proposed plan?

Fuck Jingle, I’m not following any plan that either A) You made or B) leashes me (or anyone) according to your dictates

That said, it’s not terribly far off from what I was going to do anyway, and Jingle just popped up in our server saying the same