TM 2021 Large Normal 2: Wikipedia Integer Facts (Over)

[Hopkirk]

before i start rereading stuff readstate

I townread all of:
Mastina - I've previously trusted my read on Mastina over a cop check suggesting otherwise. This really feels like town Mastina.
Innocentvillager- don't think he's on the right track today, but that's irrelevant. i think the stuff yesterday was outside of a reasonable scumrange
Xtoxm- i don't think the stuff with Auro was fakeable

From the LLD/Hercule dueling wagons I don't think scum were pushing the LLD wagon.

Other townreads: Ceph, i think Titus
maybe A50. i want to say town on play but circumstance may shift that? see below the ---s

POE: Bell, Winter Flakes (an alt of uncrowned), Jjh, Ythan, Oka
Outright scumreads: Agar

---
there had to be bussing yesterday. my gut says that scum were willing to throw out Luca who was in the Me/Mastina/IV/Xtoxm townblock because we were on the right track outside of that (one of A50/Bell or both) to throw shade into the block (people gunning for me/IV/Mastina today)

- me + 3 of my top 5 townreads- excluding Luca obviously- (Mastina/IV/Xtoxm/Ceph/Dunn) were all off the wagon so either i'm even more wrong and being hard pocketed or scum were bussing there
- There was no resistance
- There were mutual townreads amongst a lot of us there/a fairly consensusy POE
- Luca self hammered

makes me thing scum decided to lose Luca to try and break up a solve rather than let themselves get gradually elimmed then Luca by voted out last

i'm happy with my townblock from yesterday as a starting point

[Hopkirk]

i was targeted by an announcing role that i think is more likely to be scum aligned (especially assuming town!A50 +provides weak Bayesian evidence for town!A50 on a couple of levels)

Do you think it's scum aligned because it's another announcing role or do you think it's scum aligned because of the role itself

the role itself

[Hopkirk]

i'll be dedicated most of the evening to this game/be generally around btw

[AGar]

Man, people on this fuckin' site lol.

"I am locktowning X in addition to Y, Z, A, and B"
*X flips scum*
"I am confident starting with my townblock from yesterday."

Y'all fuckin' kill me.

[Hopkirk]

so i discussed this with Hectic (and arguably Flopz) and they agreed it's worth outing it

i was targetted by a Neapolitan. we're leaning towards it being a scum backup neapolitan (or backup of first announcing to die if A50 is town as well also makes sense?)

[Cephrir]

i feel like the new info should be doing more for me. i guess i don't have to adjust my reads since i wasn't wrong

[Cephrir]

that's interesting. i'm not going to dismiss it as scum out of hand but it's a little suspicious yeah.

[jjh927]

Universal backup is a thing

[Hopkirk]

Man, people on this fuckin' site lol.

"I am locktowning X in addition to Y, Z, A, and B"
*X flips scum*
"I am confident starting with my townblock from yesterday."

Y'all fuckin' kill me.

one deepwolf is possible, i don't see myself locktowning two scum

first thing on the agenda now - the Agar case that i've said i've been trying to make time for that agar has been throwing shade at me for not making during the times i'm clearly too irl busy to make but intending to make

[AGar]

one deepwolf is possible, i don't see myself locktowning two scum

I mean, if you were actually town you'd reconsider that your reads have been absolute shit this game, but you're not so.

[jjh927]

What's the likelihood of the first role to die being the thing that there is a specific backup for VS a backup just being universal

[Cephrir]

Universal backup is a thing

good point

[Hopkirk]

i'm 3/4 right on flipped town and 0/1 on flipped scum, my reads aren't shit
flipping the scum i'm not on doesn't mean i'm wrong on the others, the rest of my poe can be fine and i think it is

[OkaPoka]

3/4 = 75%
14/18 = 77.8%

0/1 = 0%
4/14 = 22.2%

[OkaPoka]

4/18*

[Hopkirk]

What's the likelihood of the first role to die being the thing that there is a specific backup for VS a backup just being universal

depends on the setup
if A50 is town it makes a lot more sense for it to be an announcer backup role
if A50 is scum then it's a universal backup imo
could also just be a backup of the neapolitan specifically as that's a role that benefits scum a lot to get
low chance of it also being a second neapolitan but not likely

since i'm currently leaning towards A50 as town, i'm leaning towards it being scum

when i posted yesterday i initially didn't remember than Dann had flipped Neapolitan and was thinking yesterday that it was a scum role because of there being two announcers, and neapolitan being a weak rolecop/a more mafia indicative role. then i remembered that i starting thinking one scum/one town, then i remembered backups exist today

[Hopkirk]

3/4 = 75%
14/18 = 77.8%

0/1 = 0%
4/14 = 22.2%

your numbers lack nauance
- 14/18 (should be 13/17 as i can exclude self) is for a single person. the chance of getting 4 townreads right randomly picked is closer to 5%
- you're only looking at my flipped reads

[OkaPoka]

13/17 = 76%

[Hopkirk]

and that's still not a useful number
like what are you trying to say there? quoting %s of me picking right

chance i pick right 4 times is 13/17 * 13/16 * 13/15 * 13/14 which is literally 50%

like you're both what, trying to discredit the rest of my reads based on a biased sample of them? what else are you posting this for

[OkaPoka]

i'm 3/4 right on flipped town and 0/1 on flipped scum, my reads aren't shit
flipping the scum i'm not on doesn't mean i'm wrong on the others, the rest of my poe can be fine and i think it is

Ur reads are close to rand aka why are you locking the same solve and same poe when u have rand reads

[Cephrir]

we actually have enough time to elim everyone i want to elim provided enough of those are hits that the game doesnt end

that's p cool

the fact there could be a town neapolitan with a result on hopkirk kinda makes me not want to kill him today

VOTE: winter hello can you please do stuff now

[innocentvillager]

lmao sample size is tiny enough here that i don't think people who were less right have to do a massive overhaul of everything and people who were more right get to pat themselves on the back and not re-evaluate anything

[Hopkirk]

brb called away to help with some stuff

pedit - Oka is acting like some of my reads being wrong means i'm a garbage player and all of my reads are wrong? my hardlocktowns are usually 90% right. my POEs are usually mostly accurate now, i think i've had 1 outside it average in most games. you and your friend here are both in it

[Hopkirk]

like this is literally just throwing shade at my play that you have no prior experience of because my reads aren't 100% right? i don't get the motive if it isn't just to hard shade me

[OkaPoka]

except this isnt a dice game where each roll is independent from each other

not saying ur garbage